How long until smartphone CPUs are as powerful as a 2500k?

[SickBeast]

I'm curious. We now have quad core CPUs in smartphones. How long until they are as powerful as a 2500k? Are we still 10 years out?

 

[vshah]

i'd say at least 10 years

 

[Kenmitch]

Most likely never....Barring some new unthought of alien technology.

 

[Deeko]

Most likely never....Barring some new unthought of alien technology.

This is a joke, right?

 

[sour07]

I saw we break 3GHz in the next 3-5 years

 

[ss284]

The atom chip that intel is putting into smartphones is the rough equivalent of modern ARM processors. The same atom is probably similar in performance to Pentium 4's of early 2000. I would say 10 years is a pretty good estimate.

 

[NikolaeVarius]

As soon as we can get a battery that can support it.

 

[Mopetar]

i'd say at least 10 years

I think that's what the trend has been like historically. I recall seeing a diagram that compared several SoCs to older PC CPUs and the SoCs generally fell into line with 10 year old CPUs.

I suppose a quick and dirty method would be to compare transistor counts. That won't guarantee an exact match (and obviously chip designers should have found ways to use their transistors more efficiently and effectively over the last decade) but it's probably a good ballpark.

I saw we break 3GHz in the next 3-5 years

GHz is a pretty meaningless measurement of performance by itself.

 

[Kenmitch]

This is a joke, right?

It's an apple vs orange comparison in the first place. Secondly he picked a bad cpu for the target as 2500k's can overclock pretty good.

It's possible at some point in the future but what node would be needed?

That would be alot of power in a small place and would require uber low voltage to make feasable.

 

[Deeko]

It's an apple vs orange comparison in the first place. Secondly he picked a bad cpu for the target as 2500k's can overclock pretty good.

It's possible at some point in the future but what node would be needed?

That would be alot of power in a small place and would require uber low voltage to make feasable.

He didn't ask "when will an exact replica of the capabilities of the 2500k be in a smartphone", he asked when something that powerful would be available. Compare mobile processors today vs mobile processors a decade ago - the difference is massive. You don't think we can equal today's desktop processor in terms of general performance 5-10 years from now?

It might not be an exact copy - it might not overclock as well, it might be 1.5ghz and 16 cores instead of 3ghz and 4 cores, for example - but it will still be a mobile processor in a smartphone with equivalent performance. Of course its apples vs oranges, but that's expected.

 

[BladeVenom]

This is a joke, right?

Smartphones will never need more than 640KB.

 

[bearxor]

I'm curious. We now have quad core CPUs in smartphones. How long until they are as powerful as a 2500k? Are we still 10 years out?

Significantly far enough in to the future so as to not have a meaningful discussion about it.

 

[vshah]

Significantly far enough in to the future so as to not have a meaningful discussion about it.

agreed. a lot can change in 10 years.

 

[Fox5]

I'm going to say at least 15 years. Silicon won't scale low enough to give that kind of performance (at least per core, which is the only thing that really matters still) at such low power levels.

 

[dagamer34]

Better question, how many people actually need an Intel 2500K to get work done? Most would be fine with a Core 2 Duo from 2007 and an SSD (were they available back then for cheap anyway).

I wonder what happens when you're able to just plug your phone into a terminal that just has a monitor, keyboard and mouse and have a fully functional version of Windows 9 or 10... Or plug your phone into any computer, open up an app on the host machine that basically remote desktops into your phone running what's basically a full OS with all your apps. Not as far fetched as you might think.

 

[bearxor]

That's the future for the vast majority of people, but you can't convince a lot of techies.

Basically, within 20 years, I don't think your phone, computer, laptop, tablet or whatever will even run an OS. You'll simply stream an interface over the air. The interface may change depending on what device you're using, but it will all basically be the same computer, hold the same files and run the same applications.

The idea of "local storage", "file systems" or "more powerful hardware" are obsolete ideas outside of the NOC. They just haven't died all the way yet.

 

[soccerballtux]

Cortex A15 IPC performance is about as good as we need from a phone processor IMO. I don't think we'll need much better than a quad A15 at ~1.5ghz for a very long time.

 

[Deeko]

That's the future for the vast majority of people, but you can't convince a lot of techies.

Basically, within 20 years, I don't think your phone, computer, laptop, tablet or whatever will even run an OS. You'll simply stream an interface over the air. The interface may change depending on what device you're using, but it will all basically be the same computer, hold the same files and run the same applications.

The idea of "local storage", "file systems" or "more powerful hardware" are obsolete ideas outside of the NOC. They just haven't died all the way yet.

Network infrastructure has a VERY long way to go until this is a reality. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets that way eventually, but we'll have mobile CPUs as powerful as a 2500k before we'll have full-speed, full-streamed UIs. I mean, the web was slowly moving that way for awhile, but in today's age of apps and HTML5, more and more is being done client side again. The infrastructure isn't there yet.

 

[Mopetar]

Cortex A15 IPC performance is about as good as we need from a phone processor IMO. I don't think we'll need much better than a quad A15 at ~1.5ghz for a very long time.

Honestly I'd rather have a dual core that clocks higher, but your point stands. Fortunately, we can just continue to build more efficient SoCs that produce that level of performance rather than attempting to create more powerful chips that we really don't need.

 

[Dumac]

Especially since the mobile world is greatly concerned with power consumption and heat, I don't see it happening for a long, long time.

You know how hot current Intel chips get with a fan? Imagine them without one...

 

[AstroManLuca]

Well, a smartphone today can run Quake 3 better than a typical computer from 1999 when it was new, and at a higher resolution to boot. Mobile graphics have advanced faster than CPUs I think - a phone with proper hardware acceleration can handle 1080p video without breaking a sweat, a task that evaded many computers less than 10 years ago.

 

[Kenmitch]

Well, a smartphone today can run Quake 3 better than a typical computer from 1999 when it was new, and at a higher resolution to boot. Mobile graphics have advanced faster than CPUs I think - a phone with proper hardware acceleration can handle 1080p video without breaking a sweat, a task that evaded many computers less than 10 years ago.

Look at desktop cpus as an example. Even the mighty intel was been making very small advancements lately. I'm sure the wall of diminishing returns will also stand in the way of mobile cpus....How far are we from the wall is the question.

 

[Mopetar]

Look at desktop cpus as an example. Even the mighty intel was been making very small advancements lately. I'm sure the wall of diminishing returns will also stand in the way of mobile cpus....How far are we from the wall is the question.

Intel has been less interested in further increasing computational power and more interested in increasing efficiency. We haven't gotten much in terms of raw performance gains, but we're getting that performance at a much lower TDP than we ever have before.

Even on the desktop we've reached a point where additional performance isn't meaningful for the vast majority of users or applications.

 

[soccerballtux]

Especially since the mobile world is greatly concerned with power consumption and heat, I don't see it happening for a long, long time.

You know how hot current Intel chips get with a fan? Imagine them without one...

we should try to quantify the performance of phone chips in desktop-chip terms. IE Cortex A15 is clock/clock competitive with Core2Duo (I don't know that it is, just giving an example) A9 competetive with P4 clock/clock....or something.

That would be interesting if we could find a trend, and forecast, "OK in 4 years the new phones are going to have as much power as PCs today, and that's the singularity point after which
a). nobody needs a PC anymore except for hardcore gaming and
b). can just use a docking station to plug in their keyboard, mouse, HDMI display
c). Intel, AMD largely cease to exist in the desktop segment and sell almost exclusively to the server market.

 

[notposting]

Battery life/power usage is a concern.

We need a good way to generate massive amounts of power cheaply and safely, and then a good way to store the resulting power.