How many Tesla accidents will happen in the next week? (auto steering releases 10/15)

[pauldun170]

My opinions on traffic were kinda solidified a few years back (bout 7+ years ago) back when I had access to academic resources and could get my hands on all sorts of research material and published work. After going through all that and observing what we have here and New York it kinda sealed the deal for me so whenever I interwebz trafficy stuff I get all yappee on it.
Basically it was all butterfly effect and fluid dynamics and a bunch of other crap. The speed variation from the car up front is the butterfly. That little slow down eventually causes the heavy traffic (at least during high usage periods)
One study was off research in the UK, another in data from Cali and another one from where I can't recall.
I do remember that it made sense and their findings mirrored my experiences from driving over that couple of decades.

Going back to mister "steady throttle", I get pissy about that because living in an area with elevation changes as well as seeing the impact on traffic due to the hills on parkways around here...
Let me shut myself up before I dig a deeper hole.

It's not my field of expertise so I don't want to claim to be some traffic guru.

 

[Kaido]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrwxEX8qOxA&feature=youtu.be

Already starting.

To be fair:

1. Took hands off wheel, against instructions
2. Used on a regular road, not a highway, against instructions

However, Tesla has maps built-in; it shouldn't allow you to use that feature on a non-highway road. It should also safely pull over if it doesn't detect your hand for say ten seconds. If that video is legit (not to say conspiracy, but we can't see the bottom of the steering wheel), then what a horrible upgrade to allow consumers to have. Beta-testing self-driving features that aren't enforced on specific roads & can kill you, no thanks! Eek.

 

[Zivic]

To be fair:

1. Took hands off wheel, against instructions
2. Used on a regular road, not a highway, against instructions

However, Tesla has maps built-in; it shouldn't allow you to use that feature on a non-highway road. It should also safely pull over if it doesn't detect your hand for say ten seconds. If that video is legit (not to say conspiracy, but we can't see the bottom of the steering wheel), then what a horrible upgrade to allow consumers to have. Beta-testing self-driving features that aren't enforced on specific roads & can kill you, no thanks! Eek.

i've watch about 3 videos on this feature.

if we are all being honest there is an aspect of cool about it. the reality of it is, it seems it makes you be kind of anxious and ultra aware of what the car (wheel) is doing. It doesn't look like it makes the driving experience more enjoyable or relaxing. if you have to have your hands on the wheel you might as well be driving. and those that I see with the hands off, are tense and holding their hands in close proximity ready to grab at the wheel. they seem ultra focused on the wheel and gauge cluster. I personally don't do enough driving for me to even enjoy an auto trans, so a car that self drives all together doesn't appeal to me

 

[Ferzerp]

So far so good. I've used it pretty extensively since Thursday. On interstates, it is phenomenal. Just know that old style painted off ramps will confuse it (any time your lane splits without dotted lines delineating the split). It has only gotten better after my familiarity with it because I now recognize the types of things to has trouble with and take over the instant it needs it. I assume the data gathering will benefit more from that than if I take over early.

I've probably gone 250 miles with autosteer at this point. Still pleased. It doesn't ever randomly do anything, so once you recognize the patterns of what might confuse it, you automatically prepare to take over.

 

[sontakke]

Generally, I would not even think about using cruise control unless the traffic is very light. Then I would be puttering in the right lane out of everybody's way. Usually with moderate to heavy traffic, I try my best to break away from the cluster. That means driving with or faster than the rest of the traffic.

I hate seeing brake light in front of me for no reason. The guy is in the left lane but he sees somebody coming up on the ramp all the way on the right side and the fist thing he does is taps the brake :-( This is why traffic starts backing up.

Very very rarely one should have to touch the brakes on highway or to cause somebody else to touch the brakes if drivers used their brains. But that is asking too much.

How often have you seen somebody goes very close and then suddenly realizes that he is travelling lot faster than the guy in front of him and then jams on the brake or worse, changes the lane at the last second. He had miles to realize that he was travelling faster and could have changed the lane long before but predictably he will jam on the brakes and switch the lane.

 

[Samus]

My wife's car has radar cruise, so pretty much all you have to do is steer, and it's amazing...just short of auto-pilot. It's good enough that I can set the speed after I merge on the highway & not touch the pedals until I have to exit. Steering is obviously a more complicated job, but not impossible given the constraints. Tesla's blog said that true driverless is still a few years away, but this is a pretty amazing leap even so. Make sure to update the thread after you get the update!

My wife's car has it too. We trade cars all the time depending on what kind of drive we are doing that day. It's actually made our sex-life better. Not joking. If your marriage is in trouble, get a vehicle with radar cruise control.

 

[sontakke]

If your marriage is in trouble, get a vehicle with radar cruise control.

Please spill the beans!

 

[Midwayman]

To be fair:

1. Took hands off wheel, against instructions
2. Used on a regular road, not a highway, against instructions

However, Tesla has maps built-in; it shouldn't allow you to use that feature on a non-highway road. It should also safely pull over if it doesn't detect your hand for say ten seconds. If that video is legit (not to say conspiracy, but we can't see the bottom of the steering wheel), then what a horrible upgrade to allow consumers to have. Beta-testing self-driving features that aren't enforced on specific roads & can kill you, no thanks! Eek.

Yah. Just people being people really. I'm sure you've seen the videos of other cars with lane holding features where the guy tapes a coke bottle to the wheel and climbs into the back seat. All just good examples of why google wants to go direct to level 4. People are going to use these systems improperly. They are going to circumvent safety measures. Its great if Tesla actually assumes everyone reads the manual and is responsible I guess.

I just don't want something to happen and it resort in draconian legislation being passed on SDC or setting back when I can buy a real level 4 car by years.

 

[shabby]

To be fair:

1. Took hands off wheel, against instructions
2. Used on a regular road, not a highway, against instructions

To be fair: people really don't follow instructions, case in point.

 

[tweakmonkey]

My friend told me how terrifying auto pilot mode was in a Tesla he drove the other day. Like many others he didn't follow their rules.

I'm guessing some people are going to crash soon and they'll blame Tesla. It's almost like they should've required you sign a written contract, as people just click OK and continue with whatever it said.

 

[sontakke]

what will happen if there are lots of cars on the road using the proximity active radar sensors on the road? what is the technology which prevents radar interference? is it similar to LAN aka retries with exponential back-off algorithm? doesn't that mean there is a possibility that the processor will not get the proximity reading at the instance when it needs it?

May be back offs are happening on microsecond scale and readings need to come only at milliseconds scale? Has somebody done the timing analysis and simulation?

 

[LTC8K6]

Why would you release this to the public in beta form?

 

[Ferzerp]

Probably because it is already far, far better than the lane assist options available from other manufacturers that aren't beta. Should those not be available either?

It's in that area of quasi self-driving that leads to some people being stupid though. The other versions are all so far behind that other than 1 or 2 people (that mercedes guy), no one is confident enough in the technology to try to go beyond its stated purpose and video at the same time.

Part of calling it beta is because it's not had much road time to "learn" yet. They're gathering info from all the cars with the equipment for it to improve the performance on the fly. A thing that can be done with an always connected car with OTA update capability.

 

[Brovane]

Part of calling it beta is because it's not had much road time to "learn" yet. They're gathering info from all the cars with the equipment for it to improve the performance on the fly. A thing that can be done with an always connected car with OTA update capability.

I don't the other auto manufacturers realize how important a always connected car with OTA update capability is. Tesla Motors must have a amazing amount of information on user charging habits, battery degradation, driving habits and now auto-pilot usage. All this will give Tesla the information that it needs to continue to improve it's car as it moves forward. Even the ability to do OTA is critical now with cars that are susceptible to happening. If a security hole is discovered in the Tesla vehicle computer code, a patch can be easily pushed out to all Tesla vehicles. :thumbsup:

 

[Shlong]

Well in this case, the auto-pilot prevented an accident from occurring: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X-5fKzmy38

 

[Z15CAM]

Give me a 71 MGB or TR6

 

[Kaido]

Yah. Just people being people really. I'm sure you've seen the videos of other cars with lane holding features where the guy tapes a coke bottle to the wheel and climbs into the back seat. All just good examples of why google wants to go direct to level 4. People are going to use these systems improperly. They are going to circumvent safety measures. Its great if Tesla actually assumes everyone reads the manual and is responsible I guess.

I just don't want something to happen and it resort in draconian legislation being passed on SDC or setting back when I can buy a real level 4 car by years.

To be fair: people really don't follow instructions, case in point.

That's what's scary about it...it's not like they have a dude show up to explain the rules, do training, and have you sign a waiver. And apparently it doesn't shut off on roads that it shouldn't operate on...that just seems extremely dangerous because it allows people to do stupid things.

I agree with Google, go straight to full-on driverless. In that one video where the dude nearly crashes head-on to another car on a 2-lane road, who do you think would bite it - the 4,600-pound Tesla with a large nose crumple zone (no engine in the front!) or the other guy? I've read news reports where Teslas will rear-end other cars & kill all the passengers inside, while the guy inside the Tesla walks away without a scratch. Same with head-on collisions:

http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/tesla-vs-honda-head-collision

Authorities say a Honda Accord and a Tesla collided on Laguna Canyon Road at 6:40 a.m. Both fatal victims in the Honda were declared dead at the scene. The driver of the Tesla was taken to a local hospital with minor injuries.

Seems like a better idea to release full-on autopilot for ALL roads, or else GPS-limit where it can be turned on. On the flip side, I understand they need to do extensive data collection & learn how to make the system better in order for it to actually be better in the future.

 

[sontakke]

This is like sitting next to your fifteen year old with temporary permit driving and you sitting in the passenger seat. You need to be lot more alert than if you were driving the vehicle. Yes; you can be proud at the ability displayed by your (or Elon Musk's) progeny and can be amazed that the vehicle is being driven without you actually touching the wheel but you better not be relaxing there!!

 

[skyking]

My opinions on traffic were kinda solidified a few years back (bout 7+ years ago) back when I had access to academic resources and could get my hands on all sorts of research material and published work. After going through all that and observing what we have here and New York it kinda sealed the deal for me so whenever I interwebz trafficy stuff I get all yappee on it.
Basically it was all butterfly effect and fluid dynamics and a bunch of other crap. The speed variation from the car up front is the butterfly. That little slow down eventually causes the heavy traffic (at least during high usage periods)
One study was off research in the UK, another in data from Cali and another one from where I can't recall.
I do remember that it made sense and their findings mirrored my experiences from driving over that couple of decades.

Going back to mister "steady throttle", I get pissy about that because living in an area with elevation changes as well as seeing the impact on traffic due to the hills on parkways around here...
Let me shut myself up before I dig a deeper hole.

It's not my field of expertise so I don't want to claim to be some traffic guru.

No, you're right. If everybody used cruise and could micro-adjust it, you could pack more cars onto any section of roadway. If it was coupled with a radar system that would speed back up to your personal set maximum, and then suggest a lane change when the traffic ran away, and YOU did change lanes !@#$%%%!!!
The effect would be amazing.

 

[LTC8K6]

That's what's scary about it...it's not like they have a dude show up to explain the rules, do training, and have you sign a waiver. And apparently it doesn't shut off on roads that it shouldn't operate on...that just seems extremely dangerous because it allows people to do stupid things.

I agree with Google, go straight to full-on driverless. In that one video where the dude nearly crashes head-on to another car on a 2-lane road, who do you think would bite it - the 4,600-pound Tesla with a large nose crumple zone (no engine in the front!) or the other guy? I've read news reports where Teslas will rear-end other cars & kill all the passengers inside, while the guy inside the Tesla walks away without a scratch. Same with head-on collisions:

http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/tesla-vs-honda-head-collision



Seems like a better idea to release full-on autopilot for ALL roads, or else GPS-limit where it can be turned on. On the flip side, I understand they need to do extensive data collection & learn how to make the system better in order for it to actually be better in the future.

http://www.trbimg.com/img-515b087c/turbine/la-me-ln-laguna-beach-accident-20130402-001/600/600x448

That looks like an offset collision and fire and an older Accord.

Probably not really indicative of a Tesla being better in a crash.

 

[Brovane]

That's what's scary about it...it's not like they have a dude show up to explain the rules, do training, and have you sign a waiver. And apparently it doesn't shut off on roads that it shouldn't operate on...that just seems extremely dangerous because it allows people to do stupid things.

I agree with Google, go straight to full-on driverless. In that one video where the dude nearly crashes head-on to another car on a 2-lane road, who do you think would bite it - the 4,600-pound Tesla with a large nose crumple zone (no engine in the front!) or the other guy? I've read news reports where Teslas will rear-end other cars & kill all the passengers inside, while the guy inside the Tesla walks away without a scratch. Same with head-on collisions:

http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/tesla-vs-honda-head-collision

.

The Tesla was speeding and crossed over the double yellow line. The driver has been criminally charged. People will do stupid things with cars and it isn't Tesla's fault.

PETTIS, ROBERT MCFARLAND
At approximately 6:40 a.m. on April 2,
2013, Pettis is accused of driving at a
high rate of speed in his Tesla Model S
northbound on State Route 133 in
Laguna Beach. Pettis is accused of
crossing over the double yellow lines
into the southbound lanes and driving
into oncoming traffic. He is accused of
crashing head-on into a Honda Accord
and killing 47-year-old driver Alberto
Casique and his passenger, 38-year-old
Armando Gonzalez. Both victims were
pronounced dead at the scene due to
vehicular blunt force trauma as a result
of the collision.

 

[Kaido]

The Tesla was speeding and crossed over the double yellow line. The driver has been criminally charged. People will do stupid things with cars and it isn't Tesla's fault.

That's my point - the guy in the video who was doing hands-free driving & recording with his iPhone drifted into oncoming traffic & was fortunately able to jerk away before crashing head-on into the car coming at him. The car was on auto-pilot at the time. Had it been like the story above, he would have walked away without a scratch & the other people would have been smooshed. Death by robot D:

 

[Kaido]

Tesla will put more limits on Autopilot to discourage stunts:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/11/04/tesla-autopilot-limits/

Musk said that Autopilot-equipped Teslas are racking up nearly a million miles of automated driving per day. Dang! Hopefully that helps with data collection!

 

[MongGrel]

This is like sitting next to your fifteen year old with temporary permit driving and you sitting in the passenger seat. You need to be lot more alert than if you were driving the vehicle. Yes; you can be proud at the ability displayed by your (or Elon Musk's) progeny and can be amazed that the vehicle is being driven without you actually touching the wheel but you better not be relaxing there!!

+1

 

[Brovane]

That's my point - the guy in the video who was doing hands-free driving & recording with his iPhone drifted into oncoming traffic & was fortunately able to jerk away before crashing head-on into the car coming at him. The car was on auto-pilot at the time. Had it been like the story above, he would have walked away without a scratch & the other people would have been smooshed. Death by robot D:

What is your point?