Ha! I actually laughed a little at that :beer:
I only said that because your doom & gloom is excessive and over the top.
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: jman19
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: Vic
The economy is coming back and faster than most of you realize. Granted, a lot of the mess is going to take many years to clean up, and some people are pretty much screwed for life now, but even that is an industry in itself.
As for the recovery, as the Roma Nova, the US has an unique way of collecting tribute from its vassal nations by masking it as debt, and much of the stimulus, etc. is coming from that.
But the real way to know the economy is poised for a rebound is that the gloom has penetrated throughout. Think of it as being like the opposite of the boom, when the irrational exuberance had shoeshine boys buying million dollar houses. We're on the flip side of that now. Just about everyone who bought high has sold off low, so the recovery is nigh.
Saved for later. Hope we still have internet.
Stop posting.
Zebo doesn't fall to peer pressure.
Originally posted by: alchemize
Zebo, since you seem to be predicting some huge economic collapse, basically the fall of society...I mean you're the guy wearing the sandwich board that says "the world will end tomorrow".
Can you please put a timeline around your prediction so we can have the opportunity to mock you when you are wrong? Thanks
PS: I'll be happy to counter-predict for you to mock me but it would be pointless since I'll be out shooting dogs for meat and won't have time for P&N if you are correct.
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: alchemize
Zebo, since you seem to be predicting some huge economic collapse, basically the fall of society...I mean you're the guy wearing the sandwich board that says "the world will end tomorrow".
Can you please put a timeline around your prediction so we can have the opportunity to mock you when you are wrong? Thanks
PS: I'll be happy to counter-predict for you to mock me but it would be pointless since I'll be out shooting dogs for meat and won't have time for P&N if you are correct.
Is it the end of the world? Not even close, life is good, be optimistic in your personnel life - but has no place in current market realties.
Okay, you want predictions so you can ridicule me, here we go.
By summer half the states will be broke, Federal tax receipts will drop another 15%, DOW less than 3000 and unemployment skyrocketing to perhaps as high as 20%. Gold @$1800 or dollar remains strong due to others being worse off, I can't decide.
News will get worse and worse, you'll here "xyz was worse than expected" in the news - letting you know well in advance of a TEOTWAWKI scenario. Recovery will happen once we fully deleverage and create wealth again.
Originally posted by: Yoxxy
Originally posted by: Acanthus
Originally posted by: Vic
The economy is coming back and faster than most of you realize. Granted, a lot of the mess is going to take many years to clean up, and some people are pretty much screwed for life now, but even that is an industry in itself.
As for the recovery, as the Roma Nova, the US has an unique way of collecting tribute from its vassal nations by masking it as debt, and much of the stimulus, etc. is coming from that.
But the real way to know the economy is poised for a rebound is that the gloom has penetrated throughout. Think of it as being like the opposite of the boom, when the irrational exuberance had shoeshine boys buying million dollar houses. We're on the flip side of that now. Just about everyone who bought high has sold off low, so the recovery is nigh.
Except the CDS house of cards hasn't even started to come crashing down yet.
An estimated $60T volcano of horseshit ready to erupt.
This is a fairly misleading statistic as this is based off two things I will try to explain here.
1.) The value of a derivative is based off the underlying security. We will use a plain vanilla interest rate swap here as this is the most common type of privately traded derivative and banks use these all the time. I will be swapping my floating rate loan from JPMORGAN which is based on 5 years of semi-annual payments of 1 month LIBOR + 100bp for an interest rate swap of 6.5% fixed for 5 years to CITI GLOBAL Markets on a notional value loan of $10,000,000. One would think that the derivatives position would be based on the interest rate of the loan or the interest rate of the swap. Say the difference is 150bp * 10,000,000 for the first payment or $150,000. In actuality when they give these figures out they are taking the loan amount of $10,000,000 and multiplying it by 10 payments equaling a derivatives notional value of $100,000,000. This is for a single transaction, which in itself is 10 transactions. Now take CITI GLOBAL they will also buy an interest rate swap hedging themselves against rates going above 6.5% from another counterparty who buys hedges from another counterparty and so on and so forth creating a significant amount of notional value that in all actuality works out to fractions of pennies on the dollar as even the first contract started out with a spread of only 150bp.
2.) After a year goes by interest rates have come down significantly on LIBOR and I want to get out of the contract. Logic would say I would simply give CITI money and they would forgo the contract. Not the case. I have to write a derivative contract that is the opposite of my first contract saying that CITI Group will pay me LIBOR + 100 bp for the remaining number of payments (8), this then creates another 80,000,000 of notional value in the derivatives sphere. CITI then does the same with counterparties thus crossing their hedges and again almost doubling the fictional notional value that is outstanding.
Forwards and swaps are not like futures, the market is very complex and can be significantly overinflated because it is private. There are literally Trillions of dollars of currency swaps that have been canceled years ago in Europe on currencies that no longer exist...
Originally posted by: chess9
Originally posted by: retrospooty
OK. OK, Zebo... Take your panic button hat back off now. The world isnt over and the country will move on...
What that short sighted article doesnt point out is that the American economy is strong. Its like Pizza - Even when its bad its still good. How many Iphones sold last quarter? still 92% of us are working and this is the worst recession in a long time... The American economy will always rebound - it re-invents itself when previous ways arent working.
You watch... 2-3 years from now, you will feel like a fool for beleiving what was entered in this post.
So, you haven't eaten Little Caesar's?
92% of 'us' aren't working. Where did you come up with that bit of nonsense?
This is fundamentally a very different problem than we've ever had before, so predictions are probably not very helpful.
-Robert
Originally posted by: ironwing
Originally posted by: Atreus21
America?s 20th century economic success was based on two things. Free trade was not one of them.
Stopped reading after that.
Why? That part is true. Protectionism works.
Originally posted by: retrospooty
Originally posted by: chess9
Originally posted by: retrospooty
OK. OK, Zebo... Take your panic button hat back off now. The world isnt over and the country will move on...
What that short sighted article doesnt point out is that the American economy is strong. Its like Pizza - Even when its bad its still good. How many Iphones sold last quarter? still 92% of us are working and this is the worst recession in a long time... The American economy will always rebound - it re-invents itself when previous ways arent working.
You watch... 2-3 years from now, you will feel like a fool for beleiving what was entered in this post.
So, you haven't eaten Little Caesar's?
92% of 'us' aren't working. Where did you come up with that bit of nonsense?
This is fundamentally a very different problem than we've ever had before, so predictions are probably not very helpful.
-Robert
Well, almost 8% unemployment = 92% working. I realize that isnt exact. Unemploment #'s are those that are looking for work - so I should say that 92% of those that are trying, are working.
So, positive predictions arent any good? Buying into negative hype and panic mentality is worse. The economy is based on consumer spending, and right now, the pessimistic bubble has us worsening our situation. The panic button mentality has to stop - we just need to relax, and look at the big picture. We do need to get spending under control and start paying off the national debt.
Originally posted by: Zebo
There is a difference.
We replaced those jobs with productive high paying factory jobs.
Today we get to stock shelves for Wal-Mart.
Woot, shoot for the stars!PS: I'll be happy to counter-predict for you to mock me but it would be pointless since I'll be out shooting dogs for meat and won't have time for P&N if you are correct.
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: retrospooty
Originally posted by: chess9
Originally posted by: retrospooty
OK. OK, Zebo... Take your panic button hat back off now. The world isnt over and the country will move on...
What that short sighted article doesnt point out is that the American economy is strong. Its like Pizza - Even when its bad its still good. How many Iphones sold last quarter? still 92% of us are working and this is the worst recession in a long time... The American economy will always rebound - it re-invents itself when previous ways arent working.
You watch... 2-3 years from now, you will feel like a fool for beleiving what was entered in this post.
So, you haven't eaten Little Caesar's?
92% of 'us' aren't working. Where did you come up with that bit of nonsense?
This is fundamentally a very different problem than we've ever had before, so predictions are probably not very helpful.
-Robert
Well, almost 8% unemployment = 92% working. I realize that isnt exact. Unemploment #'s are those that are looking for work - so I should say that 92% of those that are trying, are working.
So, positive predictions arent any good? Buying into negative hype and panic mentality is worse. The economy is based on consumer spending, and right now, the pessimistic bubble has us worsening our situation. The panic button mentality has to stop - we just need to relax, and look at the big picture. We do need to get spending under control and start paying off the national debt.
Please do yourself a favor and stop buying into what Keynes called "animal spirits". Him, like todays economists who got us into to this mess do not understand or appreciate the problems are real, as opposed to figments of our collective imagination.
What they call a "loss of confidence" is a rational and inevitable, sure as mathematics is, response to the current economic reality that involves too much debt, too little savings, too little income and a mismatch between production and consumption now leading to less spending less consumption and a consequential increase in saving.
That's why I believe Obama is actually making things worse by pursuing policies that encourage people and government to increase borrowing and spending will cause us to dig into a deeper financial hole.
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Zebo
There is a difference.
We replaced those jobs with productive high paying factory jobs.
Today we get to stock shelves for Wal-Mart.
considering that there has been shelf stocking in retail operations basically since retail began, i really don't think that's the case. are you telling me that wally world employs a larger army of shelf stockers than necessary?
Originally posted by: Zebo
Please do yourself a favor and stop buying into what Keynes called "animal spirits". Him, like todays economists who got us into to this mess do not understand or appreciate the problems are real, as opposed to figments of our collective imagination.
What they call a "loss of confidence" is a rational and inevitable, sure as mathematics is, response to the current economic reality that involves too much debt, too little savings, too little income and a mismatch between production and consumption now leading to less spending less consumption and a consequential increase in saving.
That's why I believe Obama is actually making things worse by pursuing policies that encourage people and government to increase borrowing and spending will cause us to dig into a deeper financial hole.
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Zebo
There is a difference.
We replaced those jobs with productive high paying factory jobs.
Today we get to stock shelves for Wal-Mart.
considering that there has been shelf stocking in retail operations basically since retail began, i really don't think that's the case. are you telling me that wally world employs a larger army of shelf stockers than necessary?
Wally World Jobs are a euphemism.
I'm saying the new economy Jobs are low skill low pay service jobs they have not figured out how to export yet. Jobs, which can't support America to the style we are accustomed to let alone all the socialism the left wants and warfare the right wants. Roberts talks about these jobs in this article you probably didn't read and has been quoting BLS stats in his many other articles for years now.
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Atreus21
Free trade has a part in killing jobs anywhere.
mechanized farming killed farms jobs everywhere, but i very much doubt that anyone would seriously consider going back to plowing behind an ox on a large scale.
There is a difference.
We replaced those jobs with productive high paying factory jobs.
Today we get to stock shelves for Wal-Mart.
Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
Originally posted by: Zebo
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Zebo
There is a difference.
We replaced those jobs with productive high paying factory jobs.
Today we get to stock shelves for Wal-Mart.
considering that there has been shelf stocking in retail operations basically since retail began, i really don't think that's the case. are you telling me that wally world employs a larger army of shelf stockers than necessary?
Wally World Jobs are a euphemism.
I'm saying the new economy Jobs are low skill low pay service jobs they have not figured out how to export yet. Jobs, which can't support America to the style we are accustomed to let alone all the socialism the left wants and warfare the right wants. Roberts talks about these jobs in this article you probably didn't read and has been quoting BLS stats in his many other articles for years now.
This.
You do not and cannot create any real "value" with a retail style job. Even the jobs of accountants and lawyers and the like mostly provide value in the form of "grease" -- not any sort of hard, salable, fungible product.
We are fucked.
Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Atreus21
Free trade has a part in killing jobs anywhere.
mechanized farming killed farms jobs everywhere, but i very much doubt that anyone would seriously consider going back to plowing behind an ox on a large scale.
Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
The trade deficit IS the problem the USA faces in the 21st century. This is just the beginning.. the first burb.