How to predict earthquakes ?

[William Gaatjes]

This is interesting news : According to the research, it seems that (at least at some locations) when rocks are under pressure because of fault lines and tectonic activity, there are charged particles released. This makes sort of sense (piëzo electric effect) but we could generally assume that the effect is spread out and diluted. But maybe this is not always the case. Perhaps water streams under the ground can help predict earthquakes. I can imagine that when the water carries more charged particles and one would use a flow meter by use of electromagnetic induction(Faraday's Law), there would be a different in measurement depending on the amount of charged particles in the water even though the speed of flow would be the same. I would think that more charged particles in the water would mean higher level of electrical conduction but most of all a higher induced electrical voltage. I have no idea if this would work. It is just an idea.


The article :
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-12-toads-earthquakes.html

The trouble with earthquakes, other than their obvious devastation, is that thus far they have proved to be very nearly impossible to predict, despite considerable effort towards that goal; being able to do so would obviously save a lot of lives. Also, despite the fact that there is literally hundreds, if not thousands of years of anecdotal evidence suggesting that some animals may have some innate ability to predict quakes, modern research has instead been steadfastly focused on studying the Earth, rocks, faults, etc.

That may change now that biologist Rachel Grant, from the UK’s Open University has found evidence that toads can predict a quake up to several days before the ground starts shaking. She’s teamed up with NASA geophysicst, Friedemann Freund and the two of them, as they describe in their paper in the Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, suggest that it might all be because of changes to the pond water in which the toads are living.

Grant was studying the toads that lived in a pond near L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009 in the days just before a devastating earthquake struck. In those few days just before it happened, she noted that the toads began leaving. Their numbers dwindled from just under a hundred, to zero, causing her to write about her observations in the Journal of Zoology. That caught the attention of Freund, who was doing work for NASA in studying what happens to rocks when put under extreme stress, as in say, when an earthquake is in the making. He contacted Grant, and the two of them began investigating ways that such rock pressure could impact the environment where the toads lived.

After some experiments in the lab, the two write that when rocks underground come under pressure as a result of geological processes, they let off charged particles. Such particles can very quickly rise to and above the surface of the Earth, impacting such things as pond water and the biological material in it. In the case of the pond in Italy, it seems the toads may have been reacting to changes they felt in the water itself as ions interacting with it react to form minute amounts of hydrogen peroxide. Or it seems possible that ions interacting with organic material in the pond caused substances to be released that either were toxic or less ominously, simply irritating. Either way, it would explain their sudden exodus.

The problem with proving their theory though, is of course, they’d have to know when and where an earthquake is about to strike so as to allow them to set up testing equipment in advance. Perhaps the best that can be done at this point, is for such information to disseminated all over the world, so that if anyone happens to live near a pond, and notices that the toads are leaving, they would be wise to follow them.

More information: Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8, 1936-1956; doi:10.3390/ijerph8061936

What is a Magnetic Flow Meter?

A magnetic flow meter (mag flowmeter) is a volumetric flow meter which does not have any moving parts and is ideal for wastewater applications or any dirty liquid which is conductive or water based. Magnetic flowmeters will generally not work with hydrocarbons, distilled water and many non-aqueous solutions). Magnetic flowmeters are also ideal for applications where low pressure drop and low maintenance are required.

Principle of Operation
The operation of a magnetic flowmeter or mag meter is based upon Faraday's Law, which states that the voltage induced across any conductor as it moves at right angles through a magnetic field is proportional to the velocity of that conductor.

Faraday's Formula:
E is proportional to V x B x D where:

E = The voltage generated in a conductor
V = The velocity of the conductor
B = The magnetic field strength
D = The length of the conductor

To apply this principle to flow measurement with a magnetic flowmeter, it is necessary first to state that the fluid being measured must be electrically conductive for the Faraday principle to apply. As applied to the design of magnetic flowmeters, Faraday's Law indicates that signal voltage (E) is dependent on the average liquid velocity (V) the magnetic field strength (B) and the length of the conductor (D) (which in this instance is the distance between the electrodes).In the case of wafer-style magnetic flowmeters, a magnetic field is established throughout the entire cross-section of the flow tube (Figure 1). If this magnetic field is considered as the measuring element of the magnetic flowmeter, it can be seen that the measuring element is exposed to the hydraulic conditions throughout the entire cross-section of the flowmeter. With insertion-style flowmeters, the magnetic field radiates outward from the inserted probe (Figure 2).

A movie about how the electro magnetic flow meter works...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f949gpKdCI4

 

[William Gaatjes]

Combining this finding with analysis of seismic waves vibrations (P-waves, S-waves, Rayleigh waves, love-waves, body waves and surface waves) might help a lot. If different techniques to measure upcoming earthquakes are combined, then a more accurate prediction can be made.

Here is a documentary about octopuses being able to detect just when the volcano Stromboli (Italy) is going to erupt and are always just far enough from the danger zone to not fall victim themselves...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2192137187523599922&hl=en&emb=1#


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stromboli

 

[Oric]

There is a lot of research and websites on this issue, because i live in a first degree quake zone, i followed many of these research for years. So far nO good !

 

[dmcowen674]

Here is a documentary about octopuses being able to detect just when the volcano Stromboli (Italy) is going to erupt and are always just far enough from the danger zone to not fall victim themselves...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2192137187523599922&hl=en&emb=1#


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stromboli

Many of the Animal Kingdom can detect quakes coming and get out of the danger zone.

Seems like most humans are the only ones that cannot do this and we call ourselves the highest knowledge being.

3-31-2010

http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8593000/8593396.stm

Toads can 'predict earthquakes' and seismic activity

Common toads appear to be able to sense an impending earthquake and will flee their colony days before the seismic activity strikes.


The evidence comes from a population of toads which left their breeding colony three days before an earthquake that struck L'Aquila in Italy in 2009.

They reacted despite the colony being 74km from the quake's epicentre, say biologists in the Journal of Zoology.

The shift in the toads' behaviour coincided with disruptions in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer of the earth's atmosphere, which researchers detected around the time of the L'Aquila quake using a technique known as very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding.

Such changes to the atmosphere have in turn been linked by some scientists to the release of radon gas, or gravity waves, prior to an earthquake.

 

[William Gaatjes]

Many of the Animal Kingdom can detect quakes coming and get out of the danger zone.

Seems like most humans are the only ones that cannot do this and we call ourselves the highest knowledge being.

3-31-2010

http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8593000/8593396.stm

Toads can 'predict earthquakes' and seismic activity

Common toads appear to be able to sense an impending earthquake and will flee their colony days before the seismic activity strikes.


The evidence comes from a population of toads which left their breeding colony three days before an earthquake that struck L'Aquila in Italy in 2009.

They reacted despite the colony being 74km from the quake's epicentre, say biologists in the Journal of Zoology.

The shift in the toads' behaviour coincided with disruptions in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer of the earth's atmosphere, which researchers detected around the time of the L'Aquila quake using a technique known as very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding.

Such changes to the atmosphere have in turn been linked by some scientists to the release of radon gas, or gravity waves, prior to an earthquake.

Interesting material. It seems the skin of toads have some extraordinary properties.I will bet that it is electrically conductive (most toads have slimy skin)and perhaps the toads are able to feel changes when it comes to charge and electrical fields. I know that it is possible to build a sort of crude version with electronics. I do however think that only using electric field changes to detect earthquakes will cause false alarm. I do am wondering about how toads respond to CME from the sun hitting the earth magnetic field. It makes sense that the toads are able to discriminate but how ?
We also know that when volcano's erupt, it is not uncommon that spectacular electrical discharges take place similar as lightning strikes during thunder clouds. And during thunderstorms, massive electrical fields build up as well.

In this thread about lightning discharges, i posted about a research article where ice crystals where able to have a strong piëzo effect during ice formation that would disappear over time. I think it is because the atoms in the crystal seemed to reposition and align in order to reduce the field between the individual atoms (A water molecule is electrically polarized). I wonder if it is the same with certain kind of rock material under pressure.
That momentarily a large piëzo effect can be created until the atoms re align . But it is just guessing.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30292952&postcount=16

 

[William Gaatjes]

There is a lot of research and websites on this issue, because i live in a first degree quake zone, i followed many of these research for years. So far nO good !

Perhaps constant monitoring of ground water can help.

But then hydraulic fracturing techniques for gas and oil may not be used in the vicinity. because this might distort the signal.

It is a theory, and not proven.
I just had to think about mag flow meters when i read that article.

 

[William Gaatjes]

This is certainly interesting :

It seems according to these scientists, that the atmosphere above Japan rapidly heated up before the earthquake happened. The ionosphere had an increase in electron count. This seems to confirm the research from Rachel Grant. Is male and female equality not a wonderful thing to solve problems ? As can be seen in the past, even centuries ago in a certain golden age... Life changing discoveries were made when equality was a just and moral standard. Only those that preach separation preach really only hatred and suffering... For working together will not happen when separation is preached from birth... ^_^

It makes me wonder, if the ionosphere and the earth can be (extremely simplified) seen as 2 plates of a capacitor. A lot of charge can be build up. The rest of the atmosphere functions as a dynamic dielectric. When the sun provides a lot of free electrons, i would think the ionosphere becomes more negatively charged. What would that mean for the earth ?

The three days time factor is interesting but maybe a coincidence :

From the post above :

The evidence comes from a population of toads which left their breeding colony three days before an earthquake that struck L'Aquila in Italy in 2009.

From the text below :

They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/

Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake
Infrared emissions above the epicenter increased dramatically in the days before the devastating earthquake in Japan, say scientists.

Geologists have long puzzled over anecdotal reports of strange atmospheric phenomena in the days before big earthquakes. But good data to back up these stories has been hard to come by.
In recent years, however, various teams have set up atmospheric monitoring stations in earthquake zones and a number of satellites are capable of sending back data about the state of the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere during an earthquake.
Last year, we looked at some fascinating data from the DEMETER spacecraft showing a significant increase in ultra-low frequency radio signals before the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake in January 2010
Today, Dimitar Ouzounov at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland and a few buddies present the data from the Great Tohoku earthquake which devastated Japan on 11 March. Their results, although preliminary, are eye-opening.
They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.
At the same time, satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up.
These kinds of observations are consistent with an idea called the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism. The thinking is that in the days before an earthquake, the great stresses in a fault as it is about to give cause the releases large amounts of radon.
The radioactivity from this gas ionises the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects. Since water molecules are attracted to ions in the air, ionisation triggers the large scale condensation of water.
But the process of condensation also releases heat and it is this that causes infrared emissions. "Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data," say Ouzounov and co.
These emissions go on to effect the ionosphere and its total electron content.
It certainly makes sense that the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere are coupled in a way that can be measured when one of them is perturbed. The question is to what extent the new evidence backs up this idea.
The Japan earthquake is the largest to have struck the island in modern times and will certainly turn out to be among the best studied. If good evidence of this relationship doesn't emerge from this data, other opportunities will be few and far between.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1105.2841: Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary Results.

 

[William Gaatjes]

If the 3 day ionization time is true, this means that by probing the ionosphere, we can predict earthquakes 3 days before the earthquake happens. But since toads can detect this specific ionization as well, the magnetic flow meter may help out. ^_^

 

[William Gaatjes]

Another more detailed post about the research from Rachel Grant about L'Aquila in Italy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8593000/8593396.stm

Toads can 'predict earthquakes' and seismic activity

Common toads appear to be able to sense an impending earthquake and will flee their colony days before the seismic activity strikes.
The evidence comes from a population of toads which left their breeding colony three days before an earthquake that struck L'Aquila in Italy in 2009.
How toads sensed the quake is unclear, but most breeding pairs and males fled.
They reacted despite the colony being 74km from the quake's epicentre, say biologists in the Journal of Zoology. It is hard to objectively and quantifiably study how animals respond to seismic activity, in part because earthquakes are rare and unpredictable. Some studies have been done on how domestic animals respond, but measuring the response of wild animals is more difficult.
Even those that have been shown to react, such as fish, rodents and snakes tend to do so shortly before an earthquakes strikes, rather than days ahead of the event.

However, biologist Dr Rachel Grant of the Open University, in Milton Keynes, UK, was routinely studying the behaviour of various colonies of common toads on a daily basis in Italy around the time a massive earthquake struck. Her studies included a 29-day period gathering data before, during and after the earthquake that hit Italy on 6 April 2009. The quake, a 6.3-magnitude event, struck close to L'Aquila city, about 95km (60 miles) north-east of Rome. Dr Grant was studying toads 74km away in San Ruffino Lake in central Italy, when she recorded the toads behaving oddly. Five days before the earthquake, the number of male common toads in the breeding colony fell by 96%.
Dr Grant has also shown that many amphibians around the world synchronise their mating activity by the full Moon, a phenomenon not reported before. That is highly unusual for male toads: once they have bred, they normally remain active in large numbers at breeding sites until spawning has finished.
Yet spawning had barely begun at the San Ruffino Lake site before the earthquake struck.
Also, no weather event could be linked to the toads' disappearance.

Three days before the earthquake, the number of breeding pairs also suddenly dropped to zero.
While spawn was found at the site up to six days before the earthquake, and again six days after it, no spawn was laid during the so-called earthquake period - the time from the first main shock to the last aftershock.
"Our study is one of the first to document animal behaviour before, during and after an earthquake," says Dr Grant. She believes the toads fled to higher ground, possibly where they would be at less risk from rock falls, landslides and flooding.

Sensing danger
Exactly how the toads sense impending seismic activity is unclear.
The shift in the toads' behaviour coincided with disruptions in the ionosphere, the uppermost electromagnetic layer of the earth's atmosphere, which researchers detected around the time of the L'Aquila quake using a technique known as very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding.
Such changes to the atmosphere have in turn been linked by some scientists to the release of radon gas, or gravity waves, prior to an earthquake.
In the case of the L'Aquila quake, Dr Grant could not determine what caused the disruptions in the ionosphere.
However, her findings do suggest that the toads can detect something.
"Our findings suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismic cues such as the release of gases and charged particles, and use these as a form of earthquake early warning system," she says.

Ants ignore quakes
One other study has quantified an animal's response to a major earthquake.
Researchers had the serendipitous opportunity to measure how the behaviour of the desert harvester ant (Messor pergandei) changed as the ground began to tremble in the Mojave Desert, California, on 28 June 1992.
The largest quake to hit the US in four decades struck during the middle of an ongoing study, which measured how many ants walked the trails to and from the colony, the distributions of worker ants and even how much carbon dioxide the ants produced.
However, in response to that 7.4 magnitude quake, the ants did not appear to alter their behaviour at all.

 

[Modelworks]

Not related to the method described but I accidentally made a very good seismograph. I was working on a project to detect water levels without any sensor contacting the surface, so no continuity type sensors would work. The water level had to be measured daily with some accuracy .

I came up with the idea to mount a tube that inside contained an IR LED at the top and an IR photo transistor beside it separated by plastic. The IR light shines down the tube , hits the water surface and reflects back up to the receiver. It worked very well and I was surprised how well. During testing in a pool of still water I was getting all sorts of readings on what looked like completely still water. I thought that maybe it was really more sensitive than I thought so I tapped on the nearby ground, sure enough the scope showed a peak when I tapped. I carried this out for several meters from the pool , it picked up even the smallest of taps on the ground. During the afternoon it showed a lot of strong peaks and that coincided with a train that passes through each day , about 3 miles from the pool of water. The water appeared completely still but there was enough disturbance to modulate the light coming back to the sensor.

 

[William Gaatjes]

Not related to the method described but I accidentally made a very good seismograph. I was working on a project to detect water levels without any sensor contacting the surface, so no continuity type sensors would work. The water level had to be measured daily with some accuracy .

I came up with the idea to mount a tube that inside contained an IR LED at the top and an IR photo transistor beside it separated by plastic. The IR light shines down the tube , hits the water surface and reflects back up to the receiver. It worked very well and I was surprised how well. During testing in a pool of still water I was getting all sorts of readings on what looked like completely still water. I thought that maybe it was really more sensitive than I thought so I tapped on the nearby ground, sure enough the scope showed a peak when I tapped. I carried this out for several meters from the pool , it picked up even the smallest of taps on the ground. During the afternoon it showed a lot of strong peaks and that coincided with a train that passes through each day , about 3 miles from the pool of water. The water appeared completely still but there was enough disturbance to modulate the light coming back to the sensor.

Amazing ! That is good stuff.
You should continue that development. It reminds IIRC of this article i read that the earth always produces a humming sound in the mHz to single digit Hz range. The origin of this humming sound can be found in the ocean currents . This sound travels even through rocks and tectonic plates.

 

[sys-eng]

Ants ignore quakes
One other study has quantified an animal's response to a major earthquake.
Researchers had the serendipitous opportunity to measure how the behaviour of the desert harvester ant (Messor pergandei) changed as the ground began to tremble in the Mojave Desert, California, on 28 June 1992.
The largest quake to hit the US in four decades struck during the middle of an ongoing study, which measured how many ants walked the trails to and from the colony, the distributions of worker ants and even how much carbon dioxide the ants produced.
However, in response to that 7.4 magnitude quake, the ants did not appear to alter their behaviour at all.

Well just think about it. The ants cannot exactly get away from the earthquake so how/why should they react? They go on about their work and don't worry about it.

 

[William Gaatjes]

This is not related. But it seems to be that a difference in atomic decay rates of radioactive isotopes on earth about 1,5 days before a solar flare happens and atomic decay difference seems to peak during a solar flare. It is interesting material to read about.

According to research so far, now 3 days before an earthquake happens, it is mentioned that there is some radioactive gas released causing ionization. But the ionosphere is also affected. Perhaps there is an increase in radioactive decay rate of already present isotopes in the air above the ground. Causing more ionization in the process ? Perhaps the process of an earthquake may be a little more complex then currently known...

Quite interesting.

There is also a theory that lightning follows path of previously ionized air. Ionized by cosmic rays. Previously means here in the nanoseconds i would think. It would be similar as ionizing air with a laser to invoke a lightning discharge. This concept was once explored by Japanese explorers.

 

[Lemon law]

Its common for radon gas to bubble up right before an earthquake.

But the process is fairly easy to understand, because that is what earthquakes do. Namely accumulates stresses across a fault. For a while the rocks can compress and elastically deform, but eventually stress reaches then point at which the rock cracks and breaks. And at all those new cracks, radon gas trapped deep with within the rocks from radioactive decay, suddenly can find an easy way to the surface. And radon gas being far less dense than rock or ground water, tends to move up.

 

[Pray To Jesus]

So if toads can detect earthquakes,

Why not use toads to detect earthquakes?

Seems obvious. . .

 

[William Gaatjes]

It is a bit side tracking but i was reading about the goblin shark.

And found this text in the wiki :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goblin_shark

In April 2003, over a hundred goblin sharks were caught off northwestern Taiwan; the cause of the event was unknown, though observers noted that it was preceded by a major earthquake. The species had never been recorded in the area before, nor has it been found in such numbers since.

It is just a guess, but perhaps the sharks can detect earthquakes as well by use of the ampullae of Lorenzini


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ampullae_of_Lorenzini

The ampullae of Lorenzini are special sensing organs called electroreceptors, forming a network of jelly-filled pores. They are mostly discussed as being found in cartilaginous fishes (sharks, rays, and chimaeras); however, they are also reported to be found in Chondrostei such as Reedfish[1] and sturgeon.[2] Lungfish have also been reported to have them.[1] Teleosts have re-evolved a different type of electroreceptors.[2] They were first described by Stefano Lorenzini in 1678.



These sensory organs help fish to sense electric fields in the water. Each ampulla consists of a jelly-filled canal opening to the surface by a pore in the skin and ending blindly in a cluster of small pockets full of special jelly. The ampullae are mostly clustered into groups inside the body, each cluster having ampullae connecting with different parts of the skin, but preserving a left-right symmetry. The canal lengths vary from animal to animal, but the distribution of the pores is generally specific to each species. The ampullae pores are plainly visible as dark spots in the skin. They provide fish with an additional sense capable of detecting electromagnetic fields as well as temperature gradients.

That would be interesting that perhaps it is possible to detect earthquakes by monitoring changing electric (magnetic) fields.


Why the goblin shark ?
If you ever watched aliens and then have seen this shark in action ?
Well, see for yourself

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh_HUIJkRzU