How will CPU processing power be increased when transistors can't be shrunk farther?

Arkadrel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2010
3,681
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0
How will CPU processing power be increased when transistors can't be shrunk farther?
Very slowly.

It ll turn into a matter of IPC and who's best at optimiseing.
Squeezeing every drop of performance/watt outta the cpu cores.
(assumeing theres some Upper limit to TPD they stick too)

But thats still probably 10+ years away, and by then maybe a new technology will be found.

OR each time a new CPU is released it ll just consume more and more power.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
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The majority of advancement is going to come from materials science breakthroughs. In the grand scheme of things, GHz switching speeds are slow.
 

SunRe

Member
Dec 16, 2012
51
0
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In that order in think most plausible methods are:

- new instruction sets
- new materials, allowing for higher frequencies, improved efficiency
- new packaging, for example stacking

Then in the meantime maybe some computing breakthroughs will occur in quantum computing or whatever computational paradigm you fancy most.
 

2timer

Golden Member
Apr 20, 2012
1,803
1
0
In that order in think most plausible methods are:

- new instruction sets
- new materials, allowing for higher frequencies, improved efficiency
- new packaging, for example stacking

Then in the meantime maybe some computing breakthroughs will occur in quantum computing or whatever computational paradigm you fancy most.

Cool, that's interesting. :thumbsup:
 

fixbsod

Senior member
Jan 25, 2012
415
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0
will be some time away imo -- like the intel rep recently said how moore's law always seems to be breaking 10 years from now and has been for the past 40.
 

BrightCandle

Diamond Member
Mar 15, 2007
4,762
0
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If this really is it and they can't go smaller then we will see more and more dedicated hardware for solving particular tasks. The instruction set will grow with more ever specialist commands for solving particular problems and fully power gated functions. We will see specialist coprocessors and such so that the performance can still scale for a while.

But I doubt its done, so far betting against the silicon industry has always been bad. But for the first time I feel pessimistic about the future, performance improvements have been very minimal recently.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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But I doubt its done, so far betting against the silicon industry has always been bad. But for the first time I feel pessimistic about the future, performance improvements have been very minimal recently.

Only because everyone wants a tablet, so low power is the key restriction.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
I like these gedankenexperiment type threads

Performance can be increased by one of two ways - (1) increase the rate at which work gets done (more clocks per second), or (2) increase the amount of work that gets done per clock.

Increasing the amount of work that gets done per clock can be done by complicating the compute model itself - move beyond binary.

Ternary (3-bit states), analog (spectrum of states), quantum, etc.

Making the compute models more complicated (and scaling that complication ever more so going forward) is one way to get more work done per clock cycle within an existing physical circuit mechanism (transistors of silicon, etc).

Keeping the same compute model, binary logic, and just pushing the number of cycles per second that transpire can continue for a ridiculous period of time yet. The current method of getting more cycles is by way of making traditional circuit components cycle faster and faster.

This clockspeed scaling correlates with physical scaling in real-space.

But scaling can work in something called inverse-space (aka k-space or reciprocal space).

A reciprocal lattice scales inversely proportional to the existing crystal lattice.





Seperately you can create superlattices of ever more sophisticated electronic structures you can create effective switching speeds that exist in a virtual sense, making your compute topology function in a meta-physical domain.





And of course you could go for the ultimate and make scalable reciprocal lattices of superlattices for the ultimate in pushing the physics of the meta-physical devices with which you use for your ternary, or analog, or quantum computing models.

Economics really is the limit. We can push on meta-physical reciprocal lattices for hundreds of years if we wanted (since it scales inversely in real-space, circuits become physically larger so no physical scaling limits).

The physics for all this stuff is already worked out, much the same way as binary computing was worked out long before the invention of the transistor.

What doesn't exist yet is an infrastructure for making it commercially feasible and economically viable. The same as could be said of the transistor when it was first conceived.

But there will be a way, provided there is a will.
 

Quantos

Senior member
Dec 23, 2011
386
0
76
Welp.

In physics, the reciprocal lattice of a lattice (usually a Bravais lattice) is the lattice in which the Fourier transform of the spatial wavefunction of the original lattice (or direct lattice) is represented. This space is also known as momentum space or less commonly k-space, due to the relationship between the Pontryagin duals momentum and position. The reciprocal lattice of a reciprocal lattice is the original lattice.

Hmm. Yes. I know some of these words! :\
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
An innocent forum reader dies everytime IDC makes a post from information overload

Good info tho
 

Quantos

Senior member
Dec 23, 2011
386
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76
I'm quite interested in scientific topics like as that. A great deal can be learned from Wikipedia articles and the like, but sometimes it's just to much I just don't have the physics / math knowledge and I find myself clicking on all the links in the page to go up the knowledge ladder to simpler topics.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
I'm quite interested in scientific topics like as that. A great deal can be learned from Wikipedia articles and the like, but sometimes it's just to much I just don't have the physics / math knowledge and I find myself clicking on all the links in the page to go up the knowledge ladder to simpler topics.

Don't discount how much you can learn from something as simple as skimming through wiki pages, and don't sell yourself short either.

You have access to a larger wealth of knowledge via the internet than was ever available to the likes of Newton, Kepler, or Maxwell. And the mere fact you are interested enough in the subject matter to take a few minutes (or more) of your time to even look at the wiki stuff speaks volumes of your innate curiosity.

Tesla would have never had his eureka moment if his subconscious had not been exposed to the basics of electromagnetism as it was understood at his time.

So, to quote the world's most interesting man "stay thirsty my friends!"



Keep those curiosities going and who knows what you'll discover in time
 

taq8ojh

Golden Member
Mar 2, 2013
1,296
1
81
Excuse me, I don't speak klingon, and my brain still melts down when I remember the few years I pretended to study an university

Huge thumbs up for people educated in physics though.
 

IntelEnthusiast

Intel Representative
Feb 10, 2011
582
2
0
An innocent forum reader dies everytime IDC makes a post from information overload

Good info tho

You mean that there are people out there who try to understand what IDC is saying? Most of the time when I see a post by him I just start bobbing my head up and down pretending to have a clue as to what he is talking about.

On another note try to read 1632 by Eric Flint.
 
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FalseChristian

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2002
3,322
0
71
Considering everybody and their Grandmother is getting at least 4.5GHz on their SB and IV CPUS I think Intel could come out with at least a CPU at 4GHz. AMD has done with their FX-8350.
 

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
8,548
2
0
The majority of advancement is going to come from materials science breakthroughs. In the grand scheme of things, GHz switching speeds are slow.

Yep. While the rate of increase has slowed somewhat, we're not as the limits of silicon yet. I would assert the biggest problem is that absolute processing power is no longer the number one goal, whereas power consumption has taken that spotlight. That's certainly the direction that intel is headed - and rightfully so since ultra portable computing depends on it.

Also, we don't know what's replacing silicon yet, but when that happens - processor power will again increase at exponential rates i'd imagine.
 
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