Well, from the looks, it is totaly random.can you do any better?
I think you're complaining about the length of time it predicts for. As long as it gives warning earlier than looking out your window, it has value.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Not at all.Errr... you're complaining that they can't accurately predict the path of a hurricane which doesn't even exist yet?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Not at all.
I am complaining that they are implying that they CAN track it.
Dave can
And ultimately not every model is equally useful, even though the NHC runs all of them anyhow. Certain models are better suited for predicting storms out on the open seas, other models are better for predicting land interaction, etc. A big part of storm forecasting is knowing which models to listen to and why.I think that by releasing all the models on a single map, they're NOT implying that they CAN track it. They're showing that the models aren't in agreement with each other. I can see how the average person might use this to say "see, they don't know what they're talking about." Actually, they do know what they're talking about, but people think that because the mathematics behind these prediction models works perfectly for one tropical storm 3 days out, they should work perfectly for ALL storms over the same span of time. This is not true. I can explain mathematically for you, giving you specific math equations and data to plug into the equations - you'll see that over a pretty wide range of values for the initial input (let's call it a measurement that can be off by as much as 0.7), that you will be able to predict the output after 4 or 5 iterations. However, for some very narrow neighborhoods for the inputs, you'll see that by changing the input just very very slightly - by as little as one ten-thousandth, after 4 iterations, you'll get one value; change the value by another ten-thousandth, and you'll get a radically different result a few iterations down the road. The mathematics is boring to most people, but if you're interested in at least a little bit, perhaps a good starting place is understanding a bifurcation diagram, or see if you can find an intro to chaos theory.
But, perhaps a better way to explain it: imagine a pencil that's perfectly balanced on its very sharp point. You see a person walking across the floor toward the pencil and know that it's going to tip over from the vibrations. Which way is it going to go? Now, compare this to a pencil that's already leaning just a tiny amount. Pretty easy to predict which way it's going to fall, and you can predict nearly perfectly where it will land. Compare yet again to a pencil that's tipped over at a 45 degree angle, but now, toss in a slight breeze perpendicular to the plane over which the pencil will be falling - still pretty easy to predict, though there's a little more uncertainty due to the breeze. Now, factor in dozens of other things and certainty will change. But, for some factors (how vertical the pencil is initially), occasionally, you'll run into a case where all the other calculations follow from a very uncertain measurement at the beginning.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Debby to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it drifts north and then west toward Texas. The Hurricane Center is forecasting a very slow progression of the storm, with a potential landfall not occurring until Friday. However, most of the models that predict the turn to the west suggest landfall will happen before or around Wednesday. The models are still generally split on the forecast for Debby; by Monday, the majority of the reliable models, including the ECMWF, NOGAPS, HWRF, and UKMET, agree that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing Debby west across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Wednesday. However, the GFS model, which has been our 2nd most reliable track model over the past two years (behind the ECMWF), has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Monday. The GFDL model splits the difference between these extremes and takes Debby north to a landfall near the Alabama/Florida border on Tuesday. The predicted track west to Texas is still the most likely outcome, though it remains a low-confidence forecast. In terms of intensity, none of the models is predicting Debby will become a hurricane, nor is the Hurricane Center. Though sea surface temperature is warm (and around 1°F above average), the actual heat content of the Gulf is relatively low. Wind shear is predicted to remain moderately strong through Sunday, but will increase to 30+ knots by Tuesday.
Weather is shitty here in North Tampa. Rain rain rain. I've been watching this storm closely, as it seems like it is the type of storm that if it does follow the GFS model, is going to catch this area completely off guard. Its almost as if a lot of people don't realize we have a trop. storm sitting right off our coast.
I think that by releasing all the models on a single map, they're NOT implying that they CAN track it. They're showing that the models aren't in agreement with each other. I can see how the average person might use this to say "see, they don't know what they're talking about." Actually, they do know what they're talking about, but people think that because the mathematics behind these prediction models works perfectly for one tropical storm 3 days out, they should work perfectly for ALL storms over the same span of time. This is not true. I can explain mathematically for you, giving you specific math equations and data to plug into the equations - you'll see that over a pretty wide range of values for the initial input (let's call it a measurement that can be off by as much as 0.7), that you will be able to predict the output after 4 or 5 iterations. However, for some very narrow neighborhoods for the inputs, you'll see that by changing the input just very very slightly - by as little as one ten-thousandth, after 4 iterations, you'll get one value; change the value by another ten-thousandth, and you'll get a radically different result a few iterations down the road. The mathematics is boring to most people, but if you're interested in at least a little bit, perhaps a good starting place is understanding a bifurcation diagram, or see if you can find an intro to chaos theory.
But, perhaps a better way to explain it: imagine a pencil that's perfectly balanced on its very sharp point. You see a person walking across the floor toward the pencil and know that it's going to tip over from the vibrations. Which way is it going to go? Now, compare this to a pencil that's already leaning just a tiny amount. Pretty easy to predict which way it's going to fall, and you can predict nearly perfectly where it will land. Compare yet again to a pencil that's tipped over at a 45 degree angle, but now, toss in a slight breeze perpendicular to the plane over which the pencil will be falling - still pretty easy to predict, though there's a little more uncertainty due to the breeze. Now, factor in dozens of other things and certainty will change. But, for some factors (how vertical the pencil is initially), occasionally, you'll run into a case where all the other calculations follow from a very uncertain measurement at the beginning.
Looks to me the GFS Model is closest to what I said a couple of days ago.
It is even more extreme showing it going over your head heading to the Atlantic.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/...NTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Oh right. Hot winter probably means a ridiculous hurricane season.
Not at all.
I am complaining that they are implying that they CAN track it.