Hurricane Irma track change! (for the worse!)

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Yikes!, I've been following this all weekend, (since I live in the Daytona FL area) and this AM the track has significantly changed. Over the weekend the Bermuda high has kept pushing Irma on a due west track, it now seems the chances of this major hurricane sweeping back into the Atlantic are about GONE.This monster could rip FL right down the middle or possible even get into the gulf. Here is the latest NOAA track,
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,516
5,340
136
Man I'm glad I moved out of Florida.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Man I'm glad I moved out of Florida.
You have chosen wisely!, this appears to be on a track similar to Matthew but over the weekend it has chugged at a brisk pace due west that a track back out to sea seems all but impossible at this point. I've already gotten the generator ready and will get a lot of gasoline today, with the disturbances is supply due to Harvey, (there are no refineries here in FL) gas WILL be in short supply later in the week. Here are this mornings computer models,
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Disaster preparedness sounds fun except for the whole house flooding thing.
This is a fast-moving system so that helps a bit in that regard, what's scary is living around 100-125ft pine trees and the possibility of one toppling down on the house. I have a genny and have dealt with loss of electricity before, but if your dealing with 120-130MPH winds, severe structural damage WILL happen. Add into the mix that FEMA is already addressing the Harvey disaster I don't see how they will be able to respond to this one at the same time. Oh, Irma will only get bigger+stronger due to it's southerly track since it will be able to feast on the warm Caribbean waters. The University of Miami also noted that Atlantic waters are above average and above average at depth as well. Sometimes a hurricane can weaken slightly due to itself churning up colder water as it gets stronger, not possible with the latest water temp. data.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
I'm guessing a category 5 by landfall? Whelp, goodbye Florida....

Nope, I'm out in 15 minutes to go and start to fill all my gas cans and buy emergency food's. Wish us luck..

Fuck that, start packing your shit and prepare to move out for a week.
 

Jeeebus

Diamond Member
Aug 29, 2006
9,180
897
126
This could be a problem for our routine Friday night snapper fishing.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
This could be a problem for our routine Friday night snapper fishing.
LOL, yea, I'd say so!. Anyway before I scoot out I found a neat tool that shows everything at once, here's the link, https://www.ventusky.com/?p=29.1;-81.0;4&l=temperature thing is they still can't get a good idea of when it makes that turn but it's looking more+more that it happens just south of the key's then rip's through the entire state, ouch!.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,840
13,765
146
As my wife has been pointing out
Irmas track is very similar to the one Ike took



 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
As my wife has been pointing out
Irmas track is very similar to the one Ike took



Well, I don't think it will be a repeat of Ike, all of the models predict the turn before it gets into the gulf, just watched a local forecaster that has been uncannily accurate going back to '04. He looked like the Grim Reaper doling out the worse news that nothing is going to prevent Irma from becoming a cat 5 storm by Thursday. He was honest in saying this all comes down to steering elements in the upper atmosphere like Troughs+ridges, these are what will dictate where this monster winds up. I got my gas cans all filled today, price for non-ethanol was $3/gallon. Home Depot, Harbor Freight, Lowe's, are all out of generators already!. At least people in FL are taking this seriously as they should.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,840
13,765
146
Well, I don't think it will be a repeat of Ike, all of the models predict the turn before it gets into the gulf, just watched a local forecaster that has been uncannily accurate going back to '04. He looked like the Grim Reaper doling out the worse news that nothing is going to prevent Irma from becoming a cat 5 storm by Thursday. He was honest in saying this all comes down to steering elements in the upper atmosphere like Troughs+ridges, these are what will dictate where this monster winds up. I got my gas cans all filled today, price for non-ethanol was $3/gallon. Home Depot, Harbor Freight, Lowe's, are all out of generators already!. At least people in FL are taking this seriously as they should.

Stay safe my friend. Anything Cat 2 or higher and my family and I evacuate.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,840
13,765
146
Didn't you just stick around for Harvey?

Sure but I'm referring to a direct hit. If it's within about 72-48 hours and we're projected to be in the path of a cat 2 or higher we board up and leave.

Harvey didn't actually "hit" Houston with hurricane force winds.

Ike for example ripped the roof of my house and collapsed half the ceilings. You wouldn't want to be there when that happened.

Flooding from rain like Harvey is different than storm surge flooding and wind damage. As long as you can stay in your house and have supplies you can ride it out and start the cleanup before the mold sets in.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Stay safe my friend. Anything Cat 2 or higher and my family and I evacuate.
Problem with that is the availability of gas, plus you saw the mayhem when the evacuation for Katrina was unfolding, many people don't have road-worthy vehicles capable of reliable highway travel and the inevitable break-down's brought everything to a crawl. Back in '99 Floyd was barreling down at Daytona so I finished my 2nd shift and we packed up important stuff and went to Orlando (at my in-laws). The next AM an evacuation was ordered and again, mayhem ensued, I-4, the main corridor that runs through central FL got so jammed up that people had 2-3 hours in but had not made it 10 miles out. Most just cut across the median and went back home fearing facing a cat 5 sitting on a jammed freeway. Floyd took a last-minute turn and only grazed us with 75MPH winds. Thing is, the highway system's are simply not set up properly for a mass evacuation, during the Floyd deal they were close to closing all the east-bound ramps on I-4 and using those lanes as well but by that time those stuck had already returned home. Kind of a dammed if you do and possibly fuc**d if you don't.Throw in the mix I have a dog and few hotels accept dogs, I do have a brother-in-law in Tampa though, last year he asked us if we wanted to come over AFTER Matthew had passed LOL. Anyway, thanks for the best wishes..
 
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Herr Kutz

Platinum Member
Jun 14, 2009
2,545
242
106
Do you think it's worth visiting pensacola this Friday/weekend? Any chance the waves will be pretty intense by that point?
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Do you think it's worth visiting pensacola this Friday/weekend? Any chance the waves will be pretty intense by that point?
Possibly, but I'd hold off until we see where it actually winds up going. If it makes it's turn after the edge of FL it will then have the warm Gulf waters to feast on, you might be driving to a real mess.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,328
126
Man this is a bad scenario, a potential Cat 5 storm with almost the entire state of Florida at risk. You simply can't evacuate that many people, even if you started now I'd wager. If you did start now and it doesn't land then or isn't that bad then you just screwed the economy. The only thing that I am sure of is that I am damn glad that I don't have to make that call.

Be safe you guys and remember, GAS GAS GAS!
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,328
126
Do you think it's worth visiting pensacola this Friday/weekend? Any chance the waves will be pretty intense by that point?

Unless the storm speeds up Friday and Saturday should be fine weather wise but if it's track changes you could be caught in an evacuation and trust me, that isn't a place you want to be if you can avoid it.
 

Jeeebus

Diamond Member
Aug 29, 2006
9,180
897
126
all of the grocery stores are already cleared out. thankfully my wife freaked out for the last one and we already have 4 cases of water, juice, etc. We also have more guns/bullets than the neighbors, so 4 hours into having no power I'm declaring Mad Max rules.

Picked up 10 gallons of gas which is basically useless but makes me feel good... I think.
 
Reactions: Ns1

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
Goddamnit I have property in southern Florida. I don't live there, but it's right on the path of this hurricane. The house is on 12' concrete stilts and is rated to 150mph winds with metal shutters... but it has never survived a real hurricane. I'm concerned.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,840
13,765
146
Problem with that is the availability of gas, plus you saw the mayhem when the evacuation for Katrina was unfolding, many people don't have road-worthy vehicles capable of reliable highway travel and the inevitable break-down's brought everything to a crawl. Back in '99 Floyd was barreling down at Daytona so I finished my 2nd shift and we packed up important stuff and went to Orlando (at my in-laws). The next AM an evacuation was ordered and again, mayhem ensued, I-4, the main corridor that runs through central FL got so jammed up that people had 2-3 hours in but had not made it 10 miles out. Most just cut across the median and went back home fearing facing a cat 5 sitting on a jammed freeway. Floyd took a last-minute turn and only grazed us with 75MPH winds. Thing is, the highway system's are simply not set up properly for a mass evacuation, during the Floyd deal they were close to closing all the east-bound ramps on I-4 and using those lanes as well but by that time those stuck had already returned home. Kind of a dammed if you do and possibly fuc**d if you don't.Throw in the mix I have a dog and few hotels accept dogs, I do have a brother-in-law in Tampa though, last year he asked us if we wanted to come over AFTER Matthew had passed LOL. Anyway, thanks for the best wishes..

I understand about the evacuation. We evacuated for Rita from Houston with two little kids and 3 cats.

Our 3 hour drive to San Antonio took 14 hours. My coworker who went to Dallas took 40 hours. Most hellacious drive of my life.

We evacuated for Ike too. Luckily people remembered Rita and most stayed home. Only took an extra two hours to get to Dallas.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
I just checked the answering machine at the house remotely and my neighbors are asking to use my house as a shelter because their house across the street is not on stilts and is basically just a trailer. LOL too bad for them
 
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BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
all of the grocery stores are already cleared out. thankfully my wife freaked out for the last one and we already have 4 cases of water, juice, etc. We also have more guns/bullets than the neighbors, so 4 hours into having no power I'm declaring Mad Max rules.

Picked up 10 gallons of gas which is basically useless but makes me feel good... I think.

If this thing splits the state up the gut the power outages will be very, very long. In addition to the large areas affected, Power co.'s typically "borrow" lineman from neighboring states to augment their crews but with TX and LA still reeling from Harvey those crews might not be available. We might be talking 3-12 weeks without power. As crappy as that sounds I can live with it as long as my house and job are still standing.
 
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