Hurricane Wilma Thread

[ViRGE]

Ya, that's a bit of a frightening forcast. At this point it looks like she's going to go whever the hell she wants.

 

[dmcowen674]

NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

 

[rickn]

I don't think they have a whole lot of data to forecast hurricanes this time of year, afterall hurricanes in oct/nov are not that common. Eastern gulf water temps are cooler than they were where Rita and Katrina came ashore, add in the fact a cold front is suppose to be coming thru this weekend, I saw on local news the low on monday was suppose to be 69. Atleast if we do get hit it or lose power it won't be in the heat and humidity of summertime.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

No offense Dave, but you're a paranoid telco employee who spends too much time in P&N. Neither of us is nearly well-versed enough in storms to say "just as I thought" when it comes to the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded; Mill's the only person I can think of that's even close.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

No offense Dave, but you're a paranoid telco employee who spends too much time in P&N. Neither of us is nearly well-versed enough in storms to say "just as I thought" when it comes to the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded; Mill's the only person I can think of that's even close.

having lived in florida all my life, Roy Leap WTVT was the closest thing to a weather expert that i've ever witnessed, hehe.

 

[Rubycon]

Where would you like it to go?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

No offense Dave, but you're a paranoid telco employee who spends too much time in P&N. Neither of us is nearly well-versed enough in storms to say "just as I thought" when it comes to the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded; Mill's the only person I can think of that's even close.

Sorry, I have been right all season. Look over in P&N from a couple days ago and you will see I said I do not see what the NHC Models were saying.

 

[IronWing]

Originally posted by: C6FT7
Where would you like it to go?

We could use rain in AZ so I'd like a solid slam into Texas where the winds could dissipate, a quick trip across NM, followed by a nice soaker here. Any chance of that in those models?

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

No offense Dave, but you're a paranoid telco employee who spends too much time in P&N. Neither of us is nearly well-versed enough in storms to say "just as I thought" when it comes to the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded; Mill's the only person I can think of that's even close.

Sorry, I have been right all season. Look over in P&N from a couple days ago and you will see I said I do not see what the NHC Models were saying.

I hear Ms. Cleo is looking for a Meterologist

 

[ajpa123]

Check this Page out for a vid that shows a birds-eye view of the paths of all the named storms of the season. Click on either one of the two pics to start the mpeg

Linky Dinky

 

[datalink7]

Originally posted by: imtim83
Its now 877 MB!

Wimpy. I've got 1gb in my computer!

 

[Eli]

Wow yeah, the models went completely haywire today. :Q

Looking more and more like the Yucitan is going to get pounded..

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: ajpa123
Check this Page out for a vid that shows a birds-eye view of the paths of all the named storms of the season. Click on either one of the two pics to start the mpeg

Linky Dinky

That was badass.. Thanks.

 

[WyteWatt]

Originally posted by: ajpa123
Check this Page out for a vid that shows a birds-eye view of the paths of all the named storms of the season. Click on either one of the two pics to start the mpeg

Linky Dinky

Wow now thats cool!

To bad it can't go that fast for real.

 

[ViciouS]

This is the strongest hurricane ever. I'm very affraid. I have to find a place for my dog, cat, and i to go.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: ViciouS
This is the strongest hurricane ever. I'm very affraid. I have to find a place for my dog, cat, and i to go.

it had the lowest barometric pressure of any tropical system in the atlantic basin. It will not regain that intensity, the gulf waters are cooler than the waters it's over now. that's not to say it won't be atleast Cat 3, cuz it all likelyhood it will.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
NHC Models collasped.

Just as I thought.

No offense Dave, but you're a paranoid telco employee who spends too much time in P&N. Neither of us is nearly well-versed enough in storms to say "just as I thought" when it comes to the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded; Mill's the only person I can think of that's even close.

Sorry, I have been right all season. Look over in P&N from a couple days ago and you will see I said I do not see what the NHC Models were saying.

Speaking of Mill...

Originally posted by: Mill
Anyway, I'm e-mailing you so that you can correct Dave. The reason the models turned crackhead is because ZERO Dropsonde data was included in the GFS model runs, and many of the other tropical models use GFS data and/or the GFS grid. He's "out of his leauge here"(Ed: corrected as to not be inflamatory), so please do me a favor and correct him. Without that data it cannot properly initialize Wilma, and without proper initialization, it will get the synoptic patterns and locations wrong.

Here's a link to help back it up:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77108

 

[tooltime]

what's up with all the destructive storms...

 

[Rubycon]

Mill's banned?

Originally posted by: tooltime
what's up with all the destructive storms...

When the wind gets really fast it can pick up cars and stuff.

 

[ViRGE]

11pm Discussion:

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER
NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER
FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE
PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.1N 84.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W 145 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 65 KT

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: C6FT7
Mill's banned?

Ya, he got "caught up in the whole deal with M4H being banned" ordeal.

 

[Rubycon]

That's all we need is for this BITCH to mess with NY.

 

[WyteWatt]

Shes about to bomb

 

[WyteWatt]

Originally posted by: C6FT7
Mill's banned?

Originally posted by: tooltime
what's up with all the destructive storms...

When the wind gets really fast it can pick up cars and stuff.

Thats just amazing. Imagine seeing that with your own eyes! I would die to beable just to see it. (Just a figure of speak)

 

[glugglug]

Originally posted by: imtim83
Local reports of Hwy 75 slowdowns from Naples to Punta Gorda with some folks evacuating. Nothing official yet.

I find that hard to believe, as that highway has MAJOR overcapacity. I remember when the first widened it about 15 years ago the normal flow of traffic on it became 110mph or so. Unless by "slowdowns" you mean traffic is now close to the speed limit outside of the Tampa bay area.