Originally posted by: ViRGE
Pressure's up to 899mb, she's weakening a bit.
It's possible it's a record, I don't know. I don't have any records of Gilbert's pressure over time.Originally posted by: imtim83
Originally posted by: ViRGE
Pressure's up to 899mb, she's weakening a bit.
Yep but has anyone seen a hurricane like this that stays below 900 MB for this long? This has to be some kind of record. Don't even think Gilbert did that.
I sure haven't
Originally posted by: Mill
It is going to take a couple of model runs to get things back to being certain. An earlier recon mission tonight was canceled, so once again there is a data gap in relation to dropsonde measurements. I think Wilma is going to change structure a good bit here soon, as the inner eyewall is finally dying off, and a 40nm eyewall is replacing that. This leads me to believe that the swath of Hurricane Force winds will increase, but the intensity will decline. Latest recon has pressure up to 899mb with the highest wind reading of about 125mph. It no doubt will have the winds come back up when the ERC completes and that 40nm eye is fully-structured. The pressure should continue to rise, and any major strengthening is done for until after it makes landfall or brushes the Yucatan. Reasoning being the structure changes, possible dry-air intrusion, interaction with land, and lower SSTs. I don't expect it to decrease below Cat 4. intensity until it brushes or make landfall with the Yucatan, and if it tracks into Florida (which it should), then it should be a Cat. 3. The question is WHERE in Florida, and if it will be weakening or strengthening at that time. SSTs are lower like I mentioned, but if it maintains a decent structure after interaction with the Yucatan, then they are favorable for re-strengthening, albeit at a much slower rate than the Bomb we saw last night. The big question is if any shear comes about, and if it does that could easily not allow it to retain Cat. 4 strength after brushing or landing on the Yucatan, and then it would make landfall as a weaker storm in Florida. The question of how strong will come down to the factors I mentioned above. How much will the interaction with Cuba and/or the Yucatan play on its structure. Will that allow dry air in and help prevent it from strengthening? Will shear come into play and help keep it at a moderate Major Hurricane? Until some more recon data comes in, and new dropsonde and sounding data is fed into the models -- the strength and positioning of Wilma is at the educated guessing level. The SSTs are lower being that it is October and all, but they provide enough heat content to support a Major Hurricane into Florida -- if shear, dry air, and structure allow it. My best guess right now on strength is a moderate to low end Cat. 3 into Florida. As for where, I couldn't do anymore than to throw darts. From Tampa, South to the Keys appears to be about the best guess. By 6pm tommorrow the forecast should be clearer as far as locationing is concerned, but the strength aspect could harder to read.
Contrary to what Dave believes, the NHC knows what they are doing, and they review a LOT more data than we have access to, even with the amount of Pro Mets and the advent of the Interne giving us loads of data. We don't have access to the FSU Superensemble until typically a day after they do, and even then only when someone with access posts it. That's the key model they use, and as you see -- if data isn't entered into the GFS or other models they don't have a lot of accuracy or at least faith in that accuracy. Most of the models are hinting at a Yucatan landfall, or at least getting extremely close, a landfall anywhere from Tampa to Miami/The Keys, and then a re-emergence into the Atlantic. At least one model has a landfall on the Outerbanks of NC after that, and then a landfall in New England. Others have it brushing the Coast all the way up the Eastern Seaboard, while others have it going out to Sea. One thing is for sure, if it goes up toward the East Coast and becomes extra-tropical, it will likely increase speed to 30-60mph, and could bring a pretty severe storm up that way. Lord knows they don't need more rain, and the winds with such a forward speed could be quite severe and damaging. There's nothing currently indicating a Central Gulf Coast landfall no matter how much Dave wants one. <deleted line poking at Dave>
At best, we can hope for weakening before the Yucatan landfall/interaction, and then hope that the storm is unable to regain a decent structure, and makes landfall as a less than Major Hurricane in Florida. After that, everyone's best interests would be served by it going out to sea in the Atlantic and dying. If it decides to ride the Eastern Seaboard as a Hurricane or Extra-Tropical storm, I really would have to think it will cause a lot of problems. Air-Traffic snarls, power-outages, additional severe flooding, wind damage, beach erosion, and of course economic damage. Hopefully this won't occur, but outside of about 48 hours the forecast is very iffy right now.
Originally posted by: ViRGE
More from Mill:
Originally posted by: Mill
It is going to take a couple of model runs to get things back to being certain.
Until some more recon data comes in, and new dropsonde and sounding data is fed into the models -- the strength and positioning of Wilma is at the educated guessing level.
The SSTs are lower being that it is October and all, but they provide enough heat content to support a Major Hurricane into Florida -- if shear, dry air, and structure allow it. My best guess right now on strength is a moderate to low end Cat. 3 into Florida.
As for where, I couldn't do anymore than to throw darts. From Tampa, South to the Keys appears to be about the best guess. By 6pm tommorrow the forecast should be clearer as far as locationing is concerned, but the strength aspect could harder to read.
Contrary to what Dave believes, the NHC knows what they are doing, and they review a LOT more data than we have access to, even with the amount of Pro Mets and the advent of the Interne giving us loads of data. We don't have access to the FSU Superensemble until typically a day after they do, and even then only when someone with access posts it. That's the key model they use, and as you see -- if data isn't entered into the GFS or other models they don't have a lot of accuracy or at least faith in that accuracy. Most of the models are hinting at a Yucatan landfall, or at least getting extremely close, a landfall anywhere from Tampa to Miami/The Keys, and then a re-emergence into the Atlantic. At least one model has a landfall on the Outerbanks of NC after that, and then a landfall in New England. Others have it brushing the Coast all the way up the Eastern Seaboard, while others have it going out to Sea. One thing is for sure, if it goes up toward the East Coast and becomes extra-tropical, it will likely increase speed to 30-60mph, and could bring a pretty severe storm up that way. Lord knows they don't need more rain, and the winds with such a forward speed could be quite severe and damaging. There's nothing currently indicating a Central Gulf Coast landfall no matter how much Dave wants one. <deleted line poking at Dave>
Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Question for the experts here:
According to the projected path, Wilma is expected to move fast Saturday - Monday. Does that mean significant weakening? Fast moving system=no time to gather strength?
Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Question for the experts here:
According to the projected path, Wilma is expected to move fast Saturday - Monday. Does that mean significant weakening? Fast moving system=no time to gather strength?
Originally posted by: rickn
Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Question for the experts here:
According to the projected path, Wilma is expected to move fast Saturday - Monday. Does that mean significant weakening? Fast moving system=no time to gather strength?
I'm not an expert, but I am a floridian, so I'm very familiar with hurricanes. Wind shear can weaken a hurricane, a cold front is suppose to be coming down thru florida over the weekend and early next week. That could start to shear the hurricanes outflow. Dry air intrusion from the cold front could begin to get drawn into the hurricane, that could weaken it. also, water temps are about 80 degrees in the gulf, which is warm enough to sustain a hurricane, but probably not warm enough to create another monster like it was a day or two ago. Either way, if they put warnings up for my area, the shutters are going up!
Because to humans, all the good areas are near the ocean and other bodies of water.Originally posted by: imtim83
Thats not going to be pretty
Why do hurricanes target all the good areas ?
Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
The only good thing Cozumel has going is the port and most of the hotels are all on the NW side of the island. It doesn't face the caribbean sea.
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=20.45435...875763&spn=0.209331,0.300390&t=k&hl=en
Originally posted by: imtim83
Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
The only good thing Cozumel has going is the port and most of the hotels are all on the NW side of the island. It doesn't face the caribbean sea.
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=20.45435...875763&spn=0.209331,0.300390&t=k&hl=en
Well thats a little bit of some good news. Though this hurricane still has that deadly Cat. 5 storm surge (Sense Wilma was a very strong Cat. 5 at one time the storm surge of a Cat. 5 can stsy with a hurricane for a while even if it drops down to a Cat. 3 hurricane. Takes a little while for the water to go down.)