Hurricanes, and the curve of forgetting.

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Are you seriously making the case that this is because Houston altered the environment and would have been just dandy if we had not "altered the environment"?

More that unchecked, minimally regulated, and rapacious development caused a lot of bad decisions to get made which has in large part created a situation where so many people are in harm's way of a known (and frequent from a historical perspective) threat.
 
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GagHalfrunt

Lifer
Apr 19, 2001
25,297
2,001
126
More that unchecked, minimally regulated, and rapacious development caused a lot of bad decisions to get made which has in large part created a situation where so many people are in harm's way of a known (and frequent from a historical perspective) threat.

Really? Okay, let's discuss your laughably broad definition of "frequent". How many times in recorded history has a city on the US mainland gotten 4 feet of rain in 4 days? Tell ya what, since it's so frequent it should be easy to find and I don't want you to hurt yourself typing, so you can stop at 10. Go.

The fact of the matter is that your Unabomber like fear of modernization is even more laughable than your definition of "frequent". Historically floods were FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly and continue to be FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly in older cities, third world nations and areas without modern flood controls like river dams. Despite the population density modern cities like Houston are remarkably floodproof. How many people die in floods in "unchecked, minimally regulated, and rapacious development" versus those that die in areas that are less developed and more natural? Go on, see if you can research that inconvenient little truth without your brain exploding.
 
Nov 25, 2013
32,083
11,718
136
Really? Okay, let's discuss your laughably broad definition of "frequent". How many times in recorded history has a city on the US mainland gotten 4 feet of rain in 4 days? Tell ya what, since it's so frequent it should be easy to find and I don't want you to hurt yourself typing, so you can stop at 10. Go.

The fact of the matter is that your Unabomber like fear of modernization is even more laughable than your definition of "frequent". Historically floods were FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly and continue to be FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly in older cities, third world nations and areas without modern flood controls like river dams. Despite the population density modern cities like Houston are remarkably floodproof. How many people die in floods in "unchecked, minimally regulated, and rapacious development" versus those that die in areas that are less developed and more natural? Go on, see if you can research that inconvenient little truth without your brain exploding.

At least as regards Houston you might want to read the linked article:

Houston drainage grid 'so obsolete it's just unbelievable'

City is unique in that it gets regular massive floods and has an inability to cope with them

"Houston is the most flood-prone city in the United States," said Rice University environmental engineering professor Phil Bedient. "No one is even a close second — not even New Orleans, because at least they have pumps there."

The entire system is designed to clear out only 30 centimetres of rain per 24-hour period, said Jim Blackburn, an environmental law professor at Rice University: "That's so obsolete it's just unbelievable."


http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/houston-harvey-drainage-1.4267585
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
That works each spring with the snow melts but our source is stalled out over the victim in an area with relatively little elevation change so some form of active mitigation must be used. Personally I believe that those reservoirs should've been drawn down prior to landfall to help make some room for the forecasted precipitation.

One of the biggest problems is they've allowed development in known flood plains and have not dedicated enough land to detention/retention and to the rivers. Houston has very poor zoning and it shows here.
 

khon

Golden Member
Jun 8, 2010
1,319
124
106
Right Right. And it's poorly planned development to build in earthquake zones. And it's poorly planned development to build in areas prone to wildfires. And it's poorly planned development to build in areas with blizzards, tornadoes, coastal storms, volcanoes, high winds or potential comets slamming into them. Are you seriously making the case that this is because Houston altered the environment and would have been just dandy if we had not "altered the environment"? There is not a city in the world that could have handled this in an unaltered state and none that has planned it or built their infrastructure to accommodate it. 100% of the cities on Earth would have been seriously screwed.

Simply not true, there are ways to build for these things, and countries that do a much better job than the US.

Last year alone Taiwan got hit by two category 4 hurricanes and one category 5 hurricane, and they suffered less damage than what is happening in Houston from a single hurricane.

Obviously you will never have zero impact from a hurricane of this magnitude, but you could certainly do better preparations to dramatically reduce the impact of future hurricanes, because the US gulf coast is going to get hit more and more often in coming decades, and it's about time people do something about time.
 

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,038
4,800
136
One of the biggest problems is they've allowed development in known flood plains and have not dedicated enough land to detention/retention and to the rivers. Houston has very poor zoning and it shows here.
Rapid growth combined with poor planning are evident all across our nation and it shows each time something like this happens.
Simply not true, there are ways to build for these things, and countries that do a much better job than the US.

Last year alone Taiwan got hit by two category 4 hurricanes and one category 5 hurricane, and they suffered less damage than what is happening in Houston from a single hurricane.

Obviously you will never have zero impact from a hurricane of this magnitude, but you could certainly do better preparations to dramatically reduce the impact of future hurricanes, because the US gulf coast is going to get hit more and more often in coming decades, and it's about time people do something about time.
I agree that proper planning goes a long ways with ensuring that drainage is more effective during periods of high precipitation. In my area its also relatively flat and we have what appears to be good drainage with retention ponds scattered all over the area. When we were hit with a stalled tropical system it was overwhelmed flooding streets and raising water levels in the retention ponds to the limits. Even streets that usually are clear of standing water became lakes and small cars couldn't pass through them.

I've noticed that each time we get a heavy rain that the streets in my neighborhood have a tendency to flood producing a swift current that carries lots of soil with it. The post rain deposits of rocks and sand are always present even though all of the yards are manicured in a typical subdivision with HOA style.

We keep covering the ground with concrete and other building materials that prevent the soil from absorbing the water plus each time we remove foliage we reduce the land's natural ability to absorb water. As long as we keep doing this its a recipe for flooding which repeats itself over and over again.
 

Atreus21

Lifer
Aug 21, 2007
12,007
572
126
The Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve and how it apparently applies to hurricanes. When a memory is reinforced with some regularity a person reacts in the manner in which the memory has been reinforced. Occupants of a number of Florida cities have been hit so often by hurricanes that their reaction to an oncoming storm is to get out. I'm mentioning this because the residents of Texas who were in the path of Harvey for the most part didn't feel the need to get the hell out. But I'm not going to claim that that these people were stupid, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that when a cat 3 or greater storm is approaching, that you should evacuate. It had been so long since this area was hit by a strong storm that none of these people had any memory reference of having gone through such a storm. You would think that the aforementioned group of people would have, for the most part, at least seen footage of the damage and devastation caused by Andrew, Ivan, Rita, and Katrina, et. al., and that they would have known they should have gotten out of the area. So why do humans need to live through storms like this to even begin to understand the need to get away when they happen again? Makes no sense to me at all. My thoughts and prayers to the victims who were unable to get away, and to the first responders and medical personnel who stayed to provide assistance.

Sometimes people only learn the hard way. I am certainly among that type. I might not've evacuated for Katrina except for my parents telling me to shut the hell up and follow them to Tupelo, MS.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Really? Okay, let's discuss your laughably broad definition of "frequent". How many times in recorded history has a city on the US mainland gotten 4 feet of rain in 4 days? Tell ya what, since it's so frequent it should be easy to find and I don't want you to hurt yourself typing, so you can stop at 10. Go.

The fact of the matter is that your Unabomber like fear of modernization is even more laughable than your definition of "frequent". Historically floods were FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly and continue to be FAR FAR FAR FAR more deadly in older cities, third world nations and areas without modern flood controls like river dams. Despite the population density modern cities like Houston are remarkably floodproof. How many people die in floods in "unchecked, minimally regulated, and rapacious development" versus those that die in areas that are less developed and more natural? Go on, see if you can research that inconvenient little truth without your brain exploding.

Huston is in no way floodproof. I mean, there is evidence, here, right in front of you. Things have actually been getting worse for Huston in recent years, as development has continued, unregulated. There is simply no amount of mechanical draining that we can build to replace the natural flood sinks of wetland and prairie grass that has been decimated by rapacious, shortsighted, know-nothing development. That's simply a fact. New Orleans is more or less built under water, and is a stupid place to be. Huston is entirely flat with no real natural water sink (Ocean, surviving wetland/marsh), and is clearly a stupid place to be when this kind of storm happens.

People probably recall Hurricane Matthew last year, that was supposed to decimate Jacksonville, but aside from a few areas of the city, there was very little substantial flooding. Why? The hurricane actually kept to the same disaster track and pretty much dropped the same amount of rain that was predicted to be disastrous. ...but what happened? Oh, the majority of the Jacksonville coast is a mile-long marsh that acts as a natural sponge and a far better surge wall than anything humans could ever build. My crazy old man was determined to stay, even though he lived on the water and made this argument...but we all pressured him to leave (dummy was on chemo and his plan was to park in the Mayo parking lot with the dog--his wife is a physician there--We assumed it was chemo brain). ...But he was right. Nothing happened to them or thousands of their neighbors, living in the middle of the marsh and less than a mile from the shore.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
People probably recall Hurricane Matthew last year, that was supposed to decimate Jacksonville, but aside from a few areas of the city, there was very little substantial flooding. Why?

Hurricane Matthew dumped 6.5 inches of rain on Jacksonville. Harvey has dropped over 50 inches of rain on Houston and it is still going. The two don't even compare.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Hurricane Matthew dumped 6.5 inches of rain on Jacksonville. Harvey has dropped over 50 inches of rain on Houston and it is still going. The two don't even compare.

Sure, but it was also supposed to bring a massive surge, which IIRC happened, but didn't do much. I know, no surge on Huston, obviously--I'm just pointing out that Huston intentionally decimated their actual flood mitigation tools, whereas other large cities have left them intact, to great success (granted, the ongoing dredging of St Johns river isn't going to be helping...)
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
Sure, but it was also supposed to bring a massive surge, which IIRC happened, but didn't do much. I know, no surge on Huston, obviously--I'm just pointing out that Huston intentionally decimated their actual flood mitigation tools, whereas other large cities have left them intact, to great success (granted, the ongoing dredging of St Johns river isn't going to be helping...)

I would hazard a guess that Jacksonville would not fare so well under 50 inches of rain either. No US city would.

Harvey dropped nearly 4 inches of rain PER HOUR. That means that Houston got more rain in 2 hours than Mathew dropped on Jacksonville in total. Houston got more than it normal average yearly rainfall in just 3 days. No flood mitigation tools can handle that.
 

MrPickins

Diamond Member
May 24, 2003
9,022
600
126
So very true not to mention the fact that Houston is 50ft ASL which adds to their woes. Not enough contrast in elevation for the water to drain away effectively means they will have persistent water for a longer period of time. Even if they had massive pumping stations where would they pump the water to? They would need many miles of pipeline to push that water away from the region so it didn't rush back on them in short order.

I wonder what it would cost to build new reservoirs west of that area in the desert plains and then pump excess water to them?[/QUOTE]

LOL, desert plains? You mean West Texas? That's 500+ miles away and 1000+ feet higher in elevation.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
Wow the price tag for this one is sticker shock inspiring....

Hurricane Harvey could be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history with a potential price tag of $160 billion, according to a preliminary estimate from private weather firm AccuWeather.

This is equal to the combined cost of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, and represents a 0.8% economic hit to the gross national product, AccuWeather said.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
LOL, desert plains? You mean West Texas? That's 500+ miles away and 1000+ feet higher in elevation.

I don't think people quite get that just the Greater Houston Metroplex is bigger then the state of New Jersey, and about the same size as Massachusetts. Houston is larger then 7 states.
 

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,414
1,574
126
Really? Okay, let's discuss your laughably broad definition of "frequent". How many times in recorded history has a city on the US mainland gotten 4 feet of rain in 4 days? Tell ya what, since it's so frequent it should be easy to find and I don't want you to hurt yourself typing, so you can stop at 10. Go.

Houston has more billion dollar disasters than any other city.

https://www.curbed.com/2017/8/29/16216176/hurricane-harvey-houston-flooding-climate-change
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,624
12,757
146
To be fair, it also covers 627 sq miles. In comparison, Dallas covers 385 sq miles, and NYC 469 sq miles.

I'm not terribly surprised to hear that the coastal Mega City One has a large price tag on disasters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_area

Jacksonville's really the only close contender, at 747 sq miles. Not sure on disaster statistics there though wrt hurricanes/floods, might be in much better shape.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
So I haven't heard any criticism of Trump's handling of this crisis yet. I went looking and found nothing. Is the consensus that he handled this ok thus far?

Well, he had an unscheduled fluffer rally of 200 die-hard supporters that somehow knew exactly where he would be, despite it not being on his public schedule...where he congratulated himself for bringing this huge crowd out and that his administration has already handled this better than any administration ever. ...and he was there to sell his new hat, and never mentioned the flood victims.
 

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,038
4,800
136
Jacksonville's really the only close contender, at 747 sq miles. Not sure on disaster statistics there though wrt hurricanes/floods, might be in much better shape.
As I live here in the largest city area wise in the lower 48 I can tell you that when it rains it floods...literally and the poorest sections of town are the recipients of the excess water. Its been this way for decades yet the city pours money into the richest sections of town. We're so spread out that you can spend and hour or more trying to commute from one side to the other and if you throw in some traffic congestion forget it. We're also under intense development so areas that were vacant or wooded not so long ago are being prepped for new housing or shopping districts even though some other new ones are failing.

Our republican leadership was reluctant to refuse a rich developer who wanted to turn the downtown into a haven for the elite so they could dock their yachts at their luxury condo's on the river but best of all is that they wanted the taxpayers, most of which who wouldn't benefit from it, to pay for it. Fortunately it was rejected but I'm sure they'll look for another way to squander the public treasury.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,624
12,757
146
As I live here in the largest city area wise in the lower 48 I can tell you that when it rains it floods...literally and the poorest sections of town are the recipients of the excess water. Its been this way for decades yet the city pours money into the richest sections of town. We're so spread out that you can spend and hour or more trying to commute from one side to the other and if you throw in some traffic congestion forget it. We're also under intense development so areas that were vacant or wooded not so long ago are being prepped for new housing or shopping districts even though some other new ones are failing.

Our republican leadership was reluctant to refuse a rich developer who wanted to turn the downtown into a haven for the elite so they could dock their yachts at their luxury condo's on the river but best of all is that they wanted the taxpayers, most of which who wouldn't benefit from it, to pay for it. Fortunately it was rejected but I'm sure they'll look for another way to squander the public treasury.
Good example of how large-scale development can cause exponential problems, especially when the true development (and money) get focused into very specific pockets, to the detriment of everywhere else.
 
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