I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[fskimospy]

Trump won TX by 11 points in 2016. Every survey has Biden and Trump within MOE. The state party is shitting bricks and just unsuccessfully sued to throw the Libertarian off the ballot.

That's how things are going down here.

The fact that Texas is remotely plausibly in play is apocalyptic news for Trump.

The important metric to me (obviously it wont be to you, since you refuse to accept that Biden might lose), is the direction of the polling. Clearly, in several states, Biden is trending downward. I cant think of any region in which Biden is trending upward.

Of course I accept that Biden might lose, I’ve said as much to you personally several times. Why would you make up such a ridiculous and easily disproven lie?

As far as the direction of the polls, as per 538 they are essentially unchanged over the last month. They went up a bit with Biden’s convention and then down a bit with Trump’s.

What I would suggest to you is to take a step back and think about this more logically and less emotionally. If Trump had an identical lead to Biden right now would you say Trump was desperate and on his way to defeat? I sincerely doubt it.

 

[K1052]

Oh god not the betting markets lol.

 

[fskimospy]

If this doesn't make you come back to reality then nothing probably will.

Comparing things to polls was the precise mistake of 2016. You're obviously damned to repeat it.

View attachment 29375

If this doesn’t indicate to you the betting markets are screwed up, nothing will.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1302394190949736448

The internal logic doesn’t add up. It is kind of funny that you tried to use something not internally consistent to say someone else should come back to reality though.

 

[Jhhnn]

What "huge lead"? Polls are starting to shift. Minnesota is now considered a toss up, Biden has lost his lead in Texas, and Ohio is now trending toward Trump. Yes, overall Biden still has a lead, but the latest CBS poll I saw was only like 8 points for Biden, which I dont consider huge by any means.

Who said Minnesota was a tossup or that Biden ever had a significant lead in Texas? That doesn't even pass the sniff test. It all comes around to turnout. Hillary didn't get it, but Joe will. She was going to win anyway, remember? Nobody is thinking that way now.

 

[Jhhnn]

Oh god not the betting markets lol.

No shit. Authentic paid 8/1 winning the Derby. Go figure.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Is Biden's physical brain healthy? I had forgotten that he's had brain surgery twice to repair aneurysms. The first debate should be quite telling, as long as the questions asked are not all softballs to Biden.

Yup right here:

BTW he complained about a slippery ramp on an obviously sunny day and a slippery hand rail. Please tell me where the fuck this handrail is.
Did the President imagine there was a handrail is his memory okay?

 

[brycejones]

Is Biden's physical brain healthy? I had forgotten that he's had brain surgery twice to repair aneurysms. The first debate should be quite telling, as long as the questions asked are not all softballs to Biden.

You realize Trump couldn't even deal with a simple "What is your plan if reelected" question right?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

The democrats should just run a constant stream of attack ads between now and voting day. Collect all the shit Donald has ever done or said and just display it. And don't bother responding to anything anyone in the GOP says. There's no point and no one is gonna care

At this point, I say just deepfake bullshit on the ads 25/7. Hell, even state in the ad it's not real. Trump voters don't bother fact checking or reading fine print so it'll serve purposes well.

 

[nickqt]

No shit. Authentic paid 8/1 winning the Derby. Go figure.

It's almost like betting markets where you can buy and sell positions, move regardless of actual polling, as people anticipate where it might go to squeeze a few cents of profit off that position.

All of that said, this election really is a toss-up. A state poll with Biden +6 is the same as 50-50-who-knows.

It's ballots that count. Not likely registered voters, not likely voters, not people who listen to a robocall and press a button on their phone.

Vote early, in person. If you have to vote by mail, drop it off INSIDE your precinct.

Freedom ain't free.

 

[Wreckem]

Biden’s loss of his lead after the conventions according to real clear politics is caused by a single polling firm that started doing mass polling during the conventions. They are a GOP polling firm that adds +6 for their so called shy trump voter effect on top of an already GOP slanted polling bias.

USC also takes into account the purported shy voter effect and Biden Is still about +10.

 

[Jhhnn]

Biden’s loss of his lead after the conventions according to real clear politics is caused by a single polling firm that started doing mass polling during the conventions. They are a GOP polling firm that adds +6 for their so called shy trump voter effect on top of an already GOP slanted polling bias.

USC also takes into account the purported shy voter effect and Biden Is still about +10.

Shy Trump voters always gives me a chuckle. I mean, when were they ever shy before?

 

[fskimospy]

Biden’s loss of his lead after the conventions according to real clear politics is caused by a single polling firm that started doing mass polling during the conventions. They are a GOP polling firm that adds +6 for their so called shy trump voter effect on top of an already GOP slanted polling bias.

USC also takes into account the purported shy voter effect and Biden Is still about +10.

All things aside USC’s method is very dumb.

 

[uclaLabrat]

All things aside USC’s method is very dumb.

Generally agree. That said, they were the one outfit that predicted a trump win in 2016; their polls were consistently showing him up a couple points. They were wrong of course, but they'll get (maybe outsized) credit for being right by the wrong methodology as a result.

 

[fskimospy]

Generally agree. That said, they were the one outfit that predicted a trump win in 2016; their polls were consistently showing him up a couple points. They were wrong of course, but they'll get (maybe outsized) credit for being right by the wrong methodology as a result.

That’s my point though - they weren’t predicting an electoral college win, they were predicting a popular vote win. As far as the actual goal of their poll they were completely wrong.

 

[nickqt]

Biden’s loss of his lead after the conventions according to real clear politics is caused by a single polling firm that started doing mass polling during the conventions. They are a GOP polling firm that adds +6 for their so called shy trump voter effect on top of an already GOP slanted polling bias.

USC also takes into account the purported shy voter effect and Biden Is still about +10.

That GOP voting firm might give Trump +6, but if you go back and look at their polls in 2016 and take about 3 off, they're relatively accurate for a GOP firm.

 

[uclaLabrat]

That’s my point though - they weren’t predicting an electoral college win, they were predicting a popular vote win. As far as the actual goal of their poll they were completely wrong.

Again I dont disagree, but in the terms of a binary outcome, if you predict the right result for the wrong reasons, that's what people will remember. As a result, they're going to get more credit than they should. They're the zogby of 2020.

 

[uclaLabrat]

That GOP voting firm might give Trump +6, but if you go back and look at their polls in 2016 and take about 3 off, they're relatively accurate for a GOP firm.

538 has stated as such. Similar to rasmussen; if they're systematically flawed but otherwise methodologically rigorous, they're very useful so long as you don't take the published result, but instead account for the so-called "house effect".

 

[nickqt]

538 has stated as such. Similar to rasmussen; if they're systematically flawed but otherwise methodologically rigorous, they're very useful so long as you don't take the published result, but instead account for the so-called "house effect".

Right, and my "pessimistic" view is that while they add in +6 for "shy" Trump voters, I think it's probably more accurate to add +3.

Which is why if I see Biden +6, I assume as incorrectly as anyone wants to believe, that it's probably more like Biden +3...which is probably within the margin of error, and hence to me...a toss-up.

 

[fskimospy]

Right, and my "pessimistic" view is that while they add in +6 for "shy" Trump voters, I think it's probably more accurate to add +3.

Which is why if I see Biden +6, I assume as incorrectly as anyone wants to believe, that it's probably more like Biden +3...which is probably within the margin of error, and hence to me...a toss-up.

So you’re adding a margin of error and then adding a second margin of error on top of that?

There is literally zero evidence for a shy Trump voter. If anything there is more evidence for a shy Biden voter. (Not a lot of evidence for that either)

 

[Jhhnn]

So you’re adding a margin of error and then adding a second margin of error on top of that?

There is literally zero evidence for a shy Trump voter. If anything there is more evidence for a shy Biden voter. (Not a lot of evidence for that either)

Howling lynch mob of 2016 turns shy for 2020 because reasons... Oh, you betcha, honey.

 

[uclaLabrat]

So you’re adding a margin of error and then adding a second margin of error on top of that?

There is literally zero evidence for a shy Trump voter. If anything there is more evidence for a shy Biden voter. (Not a lot of evidence for that either)

Its the same rationale that led to the "unskewed polls" that were shown to be laughably wrong.

 

[nickqt]

So you’re adding a margin of error and then adding a second margin of error on top of that?

There is literally zero evidence for a shy Trump voter. If anything there is more evidence for a shy Biden voter. (Not a lot of evidence for that either)

No, I'm either subtracting from the Republican firm, or I'm adding in my own bias.

It's not even "shy" Trump voters that I'm adding in, but the fact that Democrats are routinely required to turn in more than 50.01% of ballots to win elections. And that there are a lot of people who say they're going to vote, but are going to trust that some mail-in ballot is going to make it in, when the President of the United States has already promised to interfere, and is interfering, in mail collection that will 10000000% affect mail-in ballots.

I'm watching people say that postal workers will essentially go out of their way, work free overtime, and use USPS property to deliver mail-in ballots to make sure the vote is counted. Yet, it's the people at the top who will decide that, not a hypothetical postal employee.

So, I just factor in a +3 for Trump in any state poll, which will usually make it a toss-up due to the MOE.

Trump projects what he is actually doing onto his political opponents. He states that his political opponents are going to commit election fraud regarding mail-in ballots. Call me paranoid if you want, but when Fascists tell you what they are planning, I listen.

 

[ondma]

Who said Minnesota was a tossup or that Biden ever had a significant lead in Texas? That doesn't even pass the sniff test. It all comes around to turnout. Hillary didn't get it, but Joe will. She was going to win anyway, remember? Nobody is thinking that way now.

nvm

 

[MrSquished]

Polls came out today for Florida. Not looking good.

 

[fskimospy]

Polls came out today for Florida. Not looking good.

Polling average looks fine to me and that's the only thing anyone should pay attention to.