I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[ondma]

Who said Minnesota was a tossup or that Biden ever had a significant lead in Texas? That doesn't even pass the sniff test. It all comes around to turnout. Hillary didn't get it, but Joe will. She was going to win anyway, remember? Nobody is thinking that way now.

Latest 3 polls I can find in Minnesota: Emerson (early Aug) Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (mid Aug): even
PPP (latest early Sep): Biden back to +8
So two out of the three latest polls show Biden even or within margin of error. These were the polls I was talking about, and that are being cited on media outlets in the Twin Cities. Granted one latest poll shows Biden +8, we will see which are correct. But Biden was up by most polls in mid summer by double digits, so the trend is as I said definitely downward.

 

[fskimospy]

Latest 3 polls I can find in Minnesota: Emerson (early Aug) Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (mid Aug): even
PPP (latest early Sep): Biden back to +8
So two out of the three latest polls show Biden even or within margin of error. These were the polls I was talking about, and that are being cited on media outlets in the Twin Cities. Granted one latest poll shows Biden +8, we will see which are correct. But Biden was up by most polls in mid summer by double digits, so the trend is as I said definitely downward.

Trafalgar is a right wing advocacy pollster and is one step away from being delisted by 538 for inaccuracy and bias.

 

[ondma]

Shy Trump voters always gives me a chuckle. I mean, when were they ever shy before?

I dont know if there is a "shy" Trump voter or not. However, this so called "shy" voter is obviously not from the Trump base. It would be from the group that does not really like Trump as a person, but either approves of one or more of his policies or strongly dislikes the democratic platform. OTOH, in an anonymous poll, I dont know why one would not state his true feelings.

 

[woolfe9998]

So you’re adding a margin of error and then adding a second margin of error on top of that?

There is literally zero evidence for a shy Trump voter. If anything there is more evidence for a shy Biden voter. (Not a lot of evidence for that either)

The evidence most often cited for the "shy Trump voter" effect is that in 2016, the ~6% who remained undecided 1 day to 2 weeks prior to election day, went to Trump 4:2, so Trump picked up another 2 points. Interestingly, if you back this effect out of the numbers, the polling average was dead on accurate. It accounts for 100% of the variance between the polling average and the end result. And couldn't have been predicted by the polls, meaning they were essentially faultless (on average).

Whether this was a shy Trump voter effect or a response to late breaking developments like the Comey letter, or some combination, is unknown. However, it's safe to say that if this effect exists, it's tiny.

 

[eelw]

The shy vote is only exit polls. They were too ashamed to admit they voted orange monkey. And this is unique to 2016. This won't happen this year. Those same voters are loud and proud and are no longer the "silent majority". Voters are locked in after the impeachment and pandemic. Nothing in these last 2 months will sway voters either way.

 

[K1052]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1303752263664635904

How strange the Trump campaign waited until Virus Gate to drop their Aug fundraising figure:

Trailing Biden's August by over 150M.

 

[hal2kilo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1303752263664635904

How strange the Trump campaign waited until Virus Gate to drop their Aug fundraising figure:

Trailing Biden's August by over 150M.

Been waiting to see these numbers since they seemed to wait until there was a lot of other distractive news going on. They seriously suck. Very bad sign for the Trumpsters.

 

[Indus]

The shy vote is only exit polls. They were too ashamed to admit they voted orange monkey. And this is unique to 2016. This won't happen this year. Those same voters are loud and proud and are no longer the "silent majority". Voters are locked in after the impeachment and pandemic. Nothing in these last 2 months will sway voters either way.

But they keep saying:

 

[Grey_Beard]

If this doesn't make you come back to reality then nothing probably will.

Comparing things to polls was the precise mistake of 2016. You're obviously damned to repeat it.

View attachment 29375

What does this have to do with the election? I guess in you mind, the house never loses or never gets it wrong. That’s some series mental gymnastics.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1303752263664635904

How strange the Trump campaign waited until Virus Gate to drop their Aug fundraising figure:

Trailing Biden's August by over 150M.

Uhhh... didn't 2016 prove enough to you that monetary donations isn't all you need to win? Or did you need to be reminded of that again?

 

[K1052]

Uhhh... didn't 2016 prove enough to you that monetary donations isn't all you need to win? Or did you need to be reminded of that again?

Where am I saying it is all you need to win?

 

[Grey_Beard]

Uhhh... didn't 2016 prove enough to you that monetary donations isn't all you need to win? Or did you need to be reminded of that again?

Did this moron not start his campaign during the inauguration? The point you are missing is that he started with a HHHUUUUGGE advantage over any opponent. Then wasted it through his campaign manager buying a Ferrari and a bunch of property. He is cash poor now and not fundraising very well down the stretch. He has to pick his battles. 2016 proved when he never had it, he was better at using what he had. Maybe the stars aligning a second time is not good strategy, but hey it worked once. Kind like the old lottery retirement plan of “it could happen” since a person I knew once hit it.

 

[nickqt]

Because of Citizens United, the money you can count in campaign coffers is pretty irrelevant to pretty much anything.

 

[ElFenix]

social media intern is on it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306055202290544640

 

[alien42]

social media intern is on it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306055202290544640

there are people who think masks aren't good just like there are pedophiles that think raping children is good.

 

[sportage]

That so called town hall was a real mess. All that ABC waned to do was to see how many commercials they could stick in a 90 minute time slot. Trump was well rehearsed, he almost looked like he cared. Then.... you remember the Woodward tapes, the children locked in cages, and how he treats American heroes like John McCain, and then you remember, and... then you remember.

 

[ondma]

That so called town hall was a real mess. All that ABC waned to do was to see how many commercials they could stick in a 90 minute time slot. Trump was well rehearsed, he almost looked like he cared. Then.... you remember the Woodward tapes, the children locked in cages, and how he treats American heroes like John McCain, and then you remember, and... then you remember.

Yea, seemed almost like another campaign rally for Trump. I only watched about 30 minutes and couldn't take it anymore. The so called "undecided voters" seemed more like Trump plants to give him talking points to go on his rants. He also did a good job projecting the "kindler, gentler" (aka fake) Trump when the situation called for it.
I thought Stephanopoulos would do a good job fact checking and counteracting some of Trumps bigger distortions, but he was pretty much silent. Trump would just ramble on with his lies and distortions until it was time for a commercial break, with Stephanopoulos barely able to get a word in edge wise. If I hadnt known better, I would have though I was watching Fox News.

 

[ElFenix]

I thought Stephanopoulos would do a good job fact checking and counteracting some of Trumps bigger distortions, but he was pretty much silent. Trump would just ramble on with his lies and distortions until it was time for a commercial break, with Stephanopoulos barely able to get a word in edge wise. If I hadnt known better, I would have though I was watching Fox News.

LiBeRaL mEdIa!!!!!111!!!11!eleventy

 

[woolfe9998]

Odd you guys think the town hall went so well for Trump. Scott Jennings, a conservative supporter of Trump, thinks it went poorly for him on the whole.

Trump's town hall didn't go well | CNN

Scott Jennings writes that Donald Trump's performance at a televised town hall in Philadelphia on Tuesday "showed he is simply better in a pugilistic debate with an opponent than he is in addressing individual voters in a 'town hall' format."

www.cnn.com

 

[nickqt]

Odd you guys think the town hall went so well for Trump. Scott Jennings, a conservative supporter of Trump, thinks it went poorly for him on the whole.

Trump's town hall didn't go well | CNN

Scott Jennings writes that Donald Trump's performance at a televised town hall in Philadelphia on Tuesday "showed he is simply better in a pugilistic debate with an opponent than he is in addressing individual voters in a 'town hall' format."

www.cnn.com

Trump "not doing well" means he probably just picked up another 1% nationwide and is at 93% Republican approval.

There is no peak with this thing.

 

[ondma]

Odd you guys think the town hall went so well for Trump. Scott Jennings, a conservative supporter of Trump, thinks it went poorly for him on the whole.

Trump's town hall didn't go well | CNN

Scott Jennings writes that Donald Trump's performance at a televised town hall in Philadelphia on Tuesday "showed he is simply better in a pugilistic debate with an opponent than he is in addressing individual voters in a 'town hall' format."

www.cnn.com

Have to admit, I only say the last half hour. I was watching another show, and taped the first hour, but haven't watched it yet. From the clips I have seen, probably the first hour went worse for him.

 

[Jhhnn]

Odd you guys think the town hall went so well for Trump. Scott Jennings, a conservative supporter of Trump, thinks it went poorly for him on the whole.

Trump's town hall didn't go well | CNN

Scott Jennings writes that Donald Trump's performance at a televised town hall in Philadelphia on Tuesday "showed he is simply better in a pugilistic debate with an opponent than he is in addressing individual voters in a 'town hall' format."

www.cnn.com

I think Jennings did a promo for Trump's upcoming debate performance...

The spin in the last sentence here is fantastic, too-

It actually speaks to a larger question about the American electorate -- is there really anyone uncommitted at this point? There is no ambivalence about Trump. You love him or you hate him. And some people who love him are going to vote against him, because they are exhausted. And some people who hate him are going to vote for him because they see his opposition as unhinged and ridiculous.

Joe Biden is unhinged & ridiculous... compared to Trump?

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Apparently Laura Ingraham was calling the town hall an ambush, so, yeah.

 

[K1052]

From the clips I have seen, probably the first hour went worse for him.

It was real bad

 

[ondma]

I think Jennings did a promo for Trump's upcoming debate performance...

The spin in the last sentence here is fantastic, too-



Joe Biden is unhinged & ridiculous... compared to Trump?

Not unhinged or ridiculous, but some who dislike his conduct will still vote for him because of strong feelings about the issues, (or more likely), a single issue: abortion, gun control, immigration, "socialism", 'defund the police", etc. Granted Trump has distorted the Dems position on most of these issues to be much more radical than they actually are, but some will believe it.