I hate how everyone is biased against Biden*. Take the Trump training wheels off and let him look like a fucking loon.
*Statement is mostly sarcasm.
I hate how everyone is biased against Biden*. Take the Trump training wheels off and let him look like a fucking loon.The debate commission is going to mute mics this time. I would not be surprised if Trump refuses to debate again.
I, a true blue Okie, will play "God Blessed Texas" loudly and repeatedly if by some miracle Texas turns this year.Travis County (Austin) isn't doing too bad, either. As of today, 31% of registered voters have cast a ballot. That's just 7 days into the 18 day early voting period.
Also note, that's 31% of the record 97% of eligible voters that were registered.
Breaking down the Texas numbers.
Texas set a lot of records. One thing that the break down shows is of the 1.8million new registered voters, 600,000 of them come from three deep blue counties, Harris, Bexar, and Travis. Remember Cruz only beat Beto by 220k votes.
People should definitely keep on eye on Texas. Over 25% of registered voters have already voted. Election night returns should come quickly. My guess it won’t be called until 99% reporting but that should be by 10pm central.
I’d also like to bring up some polling. Trafalgar group says they take into account the shy Trump voter effect. When in reality they are R biased GOP polling firm. How close were they in the Beto v Cruz 2018 race? They were no where close. They had Cruz up over 9% in their final poll. The final result was Cruz by 2.5%.
Texas is at the tipping point thanks to Betos ground infrastructure that he has kept building since 2018. The state Dems and Beto have focused on the down ballot races. Texas goes blue this year or in the 2022 Governors race that I feel will be Patrick v. Beto.
I think that answers the enthusiasm question for Dems.Travis County has already hit 58% percent of 2016 turnout with two weeks to go.
Travis County has already hit 58% percent of 2016 turnout with two weeks to go.
Up to 52% now. 4.61M people have voted in Texas. About the same as all votes for Trump in 2016.The state as a whole was at 45% of 2016 vote totals. With essentially two weeks to go Texas is going to shatter the 2016 vote totals.
The state as a whole was at 45% of 2016 vote totals. With essentially two weeks to go Texas is going to shatter the 2016 vote totals.
We should be clear that the margin of error for poll aggregates is much smaller than for individual polls and we don't really know what the margin of error here is. That being said, 538 gives Biden roughly the same chance to win Texas as it gave Trump to win the presidency in 2016.538 has Trump up by 1.3% in Texas, well within the margin of error, so it's all about turnout. He was up by 8.5% in 2016 & won by 9%. Texas turnout is traditionally low, so there's a lot of uncharted territory. If the Texas GOP isn't running scared, they probably should be.
I just heard on their podcast, Nate Silver was saying he thinks pollsters might be hedging a bit in traditional red states. They'd rather be wrong on the side of Trump than wrong on the side of Biden.538 has Trump up by 1.3% in Texas, well within the margin of error, so it's all about turnout. He was up by 8.5% in 2016 & won by 9%. Texas turnout is traditionally low, so there's a lot of uncharted territory. If the Texas GOP isn't running scared, they probably should be.
We should be clear that the margin of error for poll aggregates is much smaller than for individual polls and we don't really know what the margin of error here is. That being said, 538 gives Biden roughly the same chance to win Texas as it gave Trump to win the presidency in 2016.
Yeah, but those are model effects, not impact of the sample size on the statistical confidence interval.I'm confident that the margin of error is greater than 1.3% simply because a huge gain in turnout introduces variables not previously in play.
Breaking down the Texas numbers.
Texas set a lot of records. One thing that the break down shows is of the 1.8million new registered voters, 600,000 of them come from three deep blue counties, Harris, Bexar, and Travis. Remember Cruz only beat Beto by 220k votes.
People should definitely keep on eye on Texas. Over 25% of registered voters have already voted. Election night returns should come quickly. My guess it won’t be called until 99% reporting but that should be by 10pm central.
I’d also like to bring up some polling. Trafalgar group says they take into account the shy Trump voter effect. When in reality they are R biased GOP polling firm. How close were they in the Beto v Cruz 2018 race? They were no where close. They had Cruz up over 9% in their final poll. The final result was Cruz by 2.5%.
Texas is at the tipping point thanks to Betos ground infrastructure that he has kept building since 2018. The state Dems and Beto have focused on the down ballot races. Texas goes blue this year or in the 2022 Governors race that I feel will be Patrick v. Beto.
Trump's just using that haul to pay his creditors.Holy shit I knew they are low on funds but the Trump campaign has 63M cash on hand. Just epic mismanagement.
Holy shit I knew they are low on funds but the Trump campaign has 63M cash on hand. Just epic mismanagement.
I suspect mismanagement is a big part of it, but people and big donor corps. just aren’t donating to him. I don't know why - he does so much for them. He even learned what “quid pro quo” means, and uses it regularly.
For the super rich, liquid wealth above a certain point becomes irrational. As in, having $500,000,000 in liquid wealth means everything on earth is essentially free. There's no reason to be that liquid, when you can let the criminals on Wall St. manufacture ROI.You are right.
I think that while tax breaks help the big fish keep more money, in the end, they understand that STABILITY is paramount.
In grad business school you get hammered a lot with "stability and risk / country factors" when taking those courses on economics.
Who cares about a lower tax rate if there is no country left?
Regardless, let's bury the cheeto!
Edit: Forgot about it. The super rich are heavily dependent on stock price, as most of their wealth is stock options.
Another 700,000 people voted in Texas yesterday, up to 59.6% of 2016 turnout.Up to 52% now. 4.61M people have voted in Texas. About the same as all votes for Trump in 2016.
ETA: Florida is at 32.3% and Georgia is at 41.4%.