I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[obidamnkenobi]

I suspect mismanagement is a big part of it, but people and big donor corps. just aren’t donating to him. I don't know why - he does so much for them. He even learned what “quid pro quo” means, and uses it regularly.

The list is amazing :

How Trump plowed through $1 billion, losing cash advantage

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s sprawling political operation has raised well over $1 billion since he took the White House in 2017 — and set a lot of it on fire.

apnews.com

— Nearly $100,000 spent on copies of Donald Trump Jr.’s book “Triggered,” which helped propel it to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list.

— Over $7.4 million spent at Trump-branded properties since 2017.

— At least $35.9 million spent on Trump merchandise.

— $39 million in legal and “compliance” fees. In addition to tapping the RNC and his campaign to pay legal costs during his impeachment proceedings, Trump has also relied on his political operation to cover legal costs for some aides.

— At least $15.1 million spent on the Republican National Convention. The event was supposed to be in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Trump relocated it to Jacksonville, Florida, after a dispute with North Carolina’s Democratic governor over coronavirus safety measures. The Florida event was ultimately canceled, with a mostly online convention taking its place. Disclosures show the RNC still spent $1 million at the Ritz Carlton Amelia Island, near Jacksonville.

— $912,000 spent on ads that ran on the personal Facebook pages of Parscale and Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson.

— A $250,000 ad run during Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, which came after Trump was booed by spectators when he attended Game 5.

— At least $218,000 for Trump surrogates to travel aboard private jets provided by campaign donors.

— $1.6 million on TV ads in the Washington, D.C., media market, an overwhelmingly Democratic area where Trump has little chance of winning but where he is a regular TV watcher.

 

[hal2kilo]

Sure he can. Trump surrogates are working over time to help Biden.

Oops! Right-wing billboard attacking Joe Biden misspells ‘dimensia’

 

[Grey_Beard]

The list is amazing :


— Nearly $100,000 spent on copies of Donald Trump Jr.’s book “Triggered,” which helped propel it to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list.

— Over $7.4 million spent at Trump-branded properties since 2017.

— At least $35.9 million spent on Trump merchandise.

— $39 million in legal and “compliance” fees. In addition to tapping the RNC and his campaign to pay legal costs during his impeachment proceedings, Trump has also relied on his political operation to cover legal costs for some aides.

— At least $15.1 million spent on the Republican National Convention. The event was supposed to be in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Trump relocated it to Jacksonville, Florida, after a dispute with North Carolina’s Democratic governor over coronavirus safety measures. The Florida event was ultimately canceled, with a mostly online convention taking its place. Disclosures show the RNC still spent $1 million at the Ritz Carlton Amelia Island, near Jacksonville.

— $912,000 spent on ads that ran on the personal Facebook pages of Parscale and Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson.

— A $250,000 ad run during Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, which came after Trump was booed by spectators when he attended Game 5.

— At least $218,000 for Trump surrogates to travel aboard private jets provided by campaign donors.

— $1.6 million on TV ads in the Washington, D.C., media market, an overwhelmingly Democratic area where Trump has little chance of winning but where he is a regular TV watcher.

This is no where near $1 Billion. It’s waste, but to burn through that much there has to be much of these kinds of shenanigans. I have not read the story yet, but will shortly.

 

[hal2kilo]

Wow, just came in from my walk, and Quinnipiac poll has Biden 51%, Trump 43% in PA!

 

[woolfe9998]

Interesting doings in forecaster land noting that Trump is running well behind in a growing number of districts vs 2016 based on R and D internals. This was the first sign in 2016 that things had turned against Hillary. Some speculation that reality could be closer to the national polling than the state polls due to so many people getting burned by those in 16 and overcorrecting. We'll see.

They are definitely correcting by skewing variables toward Trump. May be over-correcting.

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

If you ask Americans whether they trust the polls, many seem unable to let go of what happened in 2016. Polls taken since then have generally found that a major…

fivethirtyeight.com

It would really be something if the polls were systemically off in Trump's favor this time around. Would be a nightmare scenario for the GOP.

 

[K1052]

They are definitely correcting by skewing variables toward Trump. May be over-correcting.

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

If you ask Americans whether they trust the polls, many seem unable to let go of what happened in 2016. Polls taken since then have generally found that a major…

fivethirtyeight.com

It would really be something if the polls were systemically off in Trump's favor this time around. Would be a nightmare scenario for the GOP.

If I'm a pollster doing battleground states would I rather be off in favor of Trump or off in favor of Biden given the last 4 years. Seems like not a hard question to answer.

 

[woolfe9998]

If I'm a pollster doing battleground states would I rather be off in favor of Trump or off in favor of Biden given the last 4 years. Seems like not a hard question to answer.

Yes of course. I'm just saying that if they have over-corrected, it's going to be a sad, sad day for little Donny. He's going to have to take his toys and his underoos and go home to mother Russia.

 

[K1052]

Yes of course. I'm just saying that if they have over-corrected, it's going to be a sad, sad day for little Donny. He's going to have to take his toys and his underoos and go home to mother Russia.

Yeah the most realistic interpretation of what's happening looks like a 8-9 point loss with some truly embarrassing state flips (GA and TX) as distinct possibilities.

 

[hal2kilo]

So sad, almost a charity case. Shoving a SCOTUS nominee down peoples throat, not impeaching Trump, and no COVID stimulus. I just don't get it.

GOP Senate committee restructures $20M loan one month before election

The original loan was never reported to the FEC, filings show

www.salon.com

 

[fskimospy]

So sad, almost a charity case. Shoving a SCOTUS nominee down peoples throat, not impeaching Trump, and no COVID stimulus. I just don't get it.

GOP Senate committee restructures $20M loan one month before election

The original loan was never reported to the FEC, filings show

www.salon.com

The justice and the no stimulus make sense to me - they think Trump is going to lose and they are worried they will lose the senate too. You pocket the sure gain (SCOTUS) and hope to kneecap the incoming Biden administration with a shit economy.

Now you might be asking why elected officials would deliberately harm their own constituents but that’s because they don’t give a shit about them.

 

[Wreckem]

Beto ended his political career in Texas by saying hell yes we're coming for your guns. I'm so pissed at him for being a dumbshit in his presidential run since otherwise he would have beaten Cornyn (Cruz is much better liked by GOP voters out here) and maybe even dragged Biden along for a Texas win. Gun control is an electoral loser and Beto should have kept his focus on healthcare.

Beto was never going to run for Senate again. He will run for Governor and will easily beat Patrick after Patrick primaries Abbott. Patrick will beat Abbott in the primary because for the far right teahad’s. The moderates will not vote for Patrick. More over the inept actions of Texas government will undermine the Texas GOP for years to come. Texas is about to be number 1 in total cases and solidly number 2 in total deaths. This could end up costing the GOP their House majority this year. Voters will take it out on whoever the GOP picks for Governor. More so if it’s Patrick. Patrick is less liked than Cruz.

 

[Wreckem]

The Trafalgar pollster predicting another "silent Trump vote" will carry him to victory. I think things are a bit different this time around, but I know a lot of Democrats are nervous about this other shoe dropping.

They got Beto V. Cruz massively wrong in 2018.

If anything the new voters on the left aren’t getting picked up in polling or are being discounted by pollsters as unreliable in higher numbers to the more or less debunked shy trump voter.

The down ballot tells the tale here. Down ballot polling for races that don’t poll about Trump(IE: can’t claim shy Trump voter here) show the Dems are clearly in the lead. They have widened the map and red states are clearly in play. That does not bode well for Trump.

If Collin County Texas flips blue. Texas flips blue and Biden cruises to 400+electoral college votes. If I was the GOP I’d be scrambling in Texas. Right now the down ballot in Texas looks like a Blood bath for the Texas GOP.

I mean right now you have an Arab American tied with a GOP Incumbent where Trump won the district by 26% or so in 2016. The State House races are fairing even worse right now. A lot of that has to do with the far right controlling the Texas GOP more so then Trump.

 

[Grey_Beard]

Here is some info for those nervous with the polling.

What Republican internal polling can actually tell us https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/republican-internal-polling-analysis/index.html

“This year, the Democrats already have the House, and it's unlikely we'll see the same national vote swing in the Democrats' direction. But we'd likely see a lot more internal polls released by Republicans if they were doing well.

The bottom line is that there's really no reason to think that the Republicans have some secret polling putting Trump in a better position than the public polling does. The signs, in fact, point in the opposite direction.

Trump and his fellow Republicans seem to be running behind no matter what polling you examine.”

 

[sportage]

THIS makes me nervous. 2016 and we were sooooo sure.

 

[ivwshane]

THIS makes me nervous. 2016 and we were sooooo sure.

Step away from politics. Do it for your health, do it for your family and friends. It’s not worth it.

 

[Wreckem]

I have always said this will be a Biden Blowout 10%+ EV and 400+ EC or a Trump razor thin win in EC and 5% loss in PV.

The probability of the former is three to four times more likely than the latter but the latter is still possible.

Looking at the data of down ballot and Congressional district level polling suggests Biden lead is actually under counted.

We shall see. It’s fucking 2020.

 

[ralfy]

It won't matter if the neocon-neoliberal establishment gets its way.

 

[eelw]

It won't matter if the neocon-neoliberal establishment gets its way.

Biden going to pander more to the right in attempt to unify the country than turning into Sanders 2.0. He's going to piss off the left by not persuing charges against the current administration.

 

[Commodus]

It won't matter if the neocon-neoliberal establishment gets its way.

I'm sorry, but this is an equivocating cop-out. There's no question that removing Trump is the top priority for all voters. Otherwise, what's left of US government will make the "neocon-neoliberal establishment" seem utopian.

Please vote for Biden, and do it early. If you vote third-party or refuse to vote in this election, you're explicitly endorsing Trump and authoritarianism.

 

[ewdotson]

Yeah, I know I keep beating this drum, but if Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate, we're basically guaranteed a new VRA and money to improve election infrastructure. I'm not saying that because I'm ascribing some great virtue to the Dems - I'm saying it because it's clearly in their best interest to do so.

Free and fair elections at least make greater changes in the future possible. Whereas another four years of Trump and McConnell exerting their corrupting influences on the process would make me genuinely worried about our ability to ever see elections that approached fair again.

 

[K1052]

Yeah, I know I keep beating this drum, but if Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate, we're basically guaranteed a new VRA and money to improve election infrastructure. I'm not saying that because I'm ascribing some great virtue to the Dems - I'm saying it because it's clearly in their best interest to do so.

Free and fair elections at least make greater changes in the future possible. Whereas another four years of Trump and McConnell exerting their corrupting influences on the process would make me genuinely worried about our ability to ever see elections that approached fair again.

The only thing this court is going to like more than ruling for corporate interests against the government is striking down any voting rights legislation. Voting and arguably civil rights legislation will be extremely vulnerable to the ideological tilt that is now in effect. The only way anything new endures in this area is to reform the courts top to bottom.

 

[Roger Wilco]

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s national polling lead has fallen precipitously over the last few days from 10.7 to 9.2.

 

[Wreckem]

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s national polling lead has shrunk precipitously over the last few days from 10.7 to 9.2.

Their overall popular vote forecast that takes out all the noise remains essentially the same as it has been for a long time, essentially around +8.

Projections are there will be record turn out. They are projecting over 150million people will vote. That’s over 20million more than 2016. More people voting does not help Trump.

 

[ivwshane]

According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s national polling lead has shrunk precipitously over the last few days from 10.7 to 9.2.

That’s an odd word choice.

 

[Roger Wilco]

That’s an odd word choice.

Edited.