I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Dude... For your own sake, step away from the news feed.

Hey, it's all superficial don't ya know? It's the game. The "what-if's, the "why not's and the OMG's, plus the WTF's, and etc etc. Face it, we all gotta deal with a Trump second term " if " that is our destiny. Or, rejoice with a Biden victory but then hold Joe to the fire because only democrats do that sort of thing. In short, be prepared. And should it all become too much to bear simply do what the news media does, talk about sports.

By the way... I started this thread long ago and here we are days, hours away from the answer and the question still applies. I should re-title it, "Joe had better do it or I'll kick his ass".
 
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gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,092
1,735
136
Question - what will you do if the polls turn out to be right?

I'll give them credit where credit is due.

It'll be interesting to see how many African American voters pivot to Trump, especially with some of the recent celebrity endorsement of the Platinum Plan. Will it offset his losses in the suburbs?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
I'll give them credit where credit is due.

It'll be interesting to see how many African American voters pivot to Trump, especially with some of the recent celebrity endorsement of the Platinum Plan. Will it offset his losses in the suburbs?
Would getting something this wrong lead you to re-evaluate your other positions?
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,951
20,220
136

More warning signs for the Biden campaign.

If it's 2016 all over again, the polling industry needs a total overhaul or just disband.
I don't see what is wrong about being concerned about this article. It is from a reputable source and it points out that turnout hasn't been great yet with certain groups, and get out the vote efforts by the Biden campaign directed at them are not as funded and backed much as they should be.

Remember, with voter suppression the Dems need every vote possible from demographics that lean D.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
I don't see what is wrong about being concerned about this article. It is from a reputable source and it points out that turnout hasn't been great yet with certain groups, and get out the vote efforts by the Biden campaign directed at them are not as funded and backed much as they should be.

Remember, with voter suppression the Dems need every vote possible from demographics that lean D.
Who said it was wrong?
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
I don't see what is wrong about being concerned about this article. It is from a reputable source and it points out that turnout hasn't been great yet with certain groups, and get out the vote efforts by the Biden campaign directed at them are not as funded and backed much as they should be.

Remember, with voter suppression the Dems need every vote possible from demographics that lean D.
One thing to keep in mind though, at this point in the game every operative thinks they should be getting more money and attention. Hopefully the campaign is striking the right balance.
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,779
1,353
136
Why didn’t the polls getting it right in 2018 change your mind?
Because Trump wasn't running in 2018, so the situation is not analogous. I too am still distrustful of the polls, but am somewhat hopeful because turnout has been high and Biden's lead relatively steady. My bigger concern though is the shenanigans Trump will undoubtedly pull to try to interfere with the vote and subsequent counting of it.

Here in Minnesota, we were told that mail in ballots could be received until 7 days after Nov 3 as long as they were postmarked by that date. That has been reversed (surprise) by a Federal court now, and ballots have to be received by election day. Either way is OK, but changing the rules at the last minute could result in a lot of ballots not being received in time.

I partially blame the election commissioner of MN though, because he extended the deadline past what was set by law, thus it was overturned by the court. If he had just left things alone, there would have been no confusion. He said all ballots will be counted, and late votes will have to be challenged, which they obviously will be if Trump loses. So even in Minnesota, known for its efforts to get good voter turnout, there is a strong potential for a serious cluster f**k determining the final vote.

Edit: Dems in particular are now urging those who have not sent in their ballot to drop them off or vote in person. I can just hear Trump now, "Those Dems are voting twice, I told you so. The election is rigged." Obviously mail in ballots should not be counted if the person voted at the polls, but even a few mistakes allowing a double count will give Trump a lot of ammunition. At least my and my wife's ballots have been received and will be counted.
 
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Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
I partially blame the election commissioner of MN though, because he extended the deadline past what was set by law, thus it was overturned by the court. If he had just left things alone, there would have been no confusion. He said all ballots will be counted, and late votes will have to be challenged, which they obviously will be if Trump loses. So even in Minnesota, known for its efforts to get good voter turnout, there is a strong potential for a serious cluster f**k determining the final vote.

Edit: Dems in particular are now urging those who have not sent in their ballot to drop them off or vote in person. I can just hear Trump now, "Those Dems are voting twice, I told you so. The election is rigged." Obviously mail in ballots should not be counted if the person voted at the polls, but even a few mistakes allowing a double count will give Trump a lot of ammunition. At least my and my wife's ballots have been received and will be counted.

Yeah, but that change was done like what? 3 months ago? The court decided to shit all over Purcell principle just days away from the election, though technically it hasn't been decided yet, which I find stupid -- judges should have to make the decision before they can see which party if any benefits). Frankly, I don't know why the lawyers can't argue that because DeJoy and Trump fucked up the USPS on purpose, all states are mandated to have at least 7 day extension for all postmarked ballots.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,578
7,639
136
If people don't want to turnout to stop Trump and Republicans from hurting them....

I'd like to think any enthusiasm gap for old man Biden has become irrelevant. This election is sadly more about opposing someone than being campaigned by Biden to support something. I kind of feel like there hasn't been much of a campaign by Democrats?

OTOH, speaking of turnout. Is that for in-person voting? Then the obvious reason is that Democrats by and large stuffed their ballots into the mail where they can get lost, damaged, or discounted entirely. Really stupid move, but 57 million people chose to do that already.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
Apples and oranges IMO. Trump was not on the ballot.
So to be clear then you believe the polls are correct except when Trump is on the ballot?

I mean the national polls were within ~1 point in 2016 so it can’t even be that.

Is the argument that all national polls are correct and specific state level polls are correct except for when Trump is on the ballot?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,874
34,820
136
I'd like to think any enthusiasm gap for old man Biden has become irrelevant. This election is sadly more about opposing someone than being campaigned by Biden to support something. I kind of feel like there hasn't been much of a campaign by Democrats?

Biden has been talking policy for months in detail. Often very popular policy. He got Mr. Populist Trump to oppose a $15min wage at the last debate which is overwhelmingly supported. If people haven't taken a lot of notice of the policy involved here I'm more inclined to blame the black hole like powers of Trump to grab attention even though it's almost exclusively over things and in ways that hurt him now.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
6,040
136
Biden has been talking policy for months in detail. Often very popular policy. He got Mr. Populist Trump to oppose a $15min wage at the last debate which is overwhelmingly supported. If people haven't taken a lot of notice of the policy involved here I'm more inclined to blame the black hole like powers of Trump to grab attention even though it's almost exclusively over things and in ways that hurt him now.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats actually have a platform. The Republican platform is basically whatever Trump says.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Yes, and don't forget that most pollsters have adjusted for what caused the polling error in 2016: underestimating the turnout of non-college educated white people. This year, any polling error is about equally likely to favor Trump as Biden. Even a 2 point systemic error in Trump's favor will turn this into an epic landslide, with Biden taking every swing state including (narrowly) Texas. Not saying that will happen, but statistically it's actually more likely than Trump winning is.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,951
20,220
136
Polls don't take into account USPS snafus, signatures not matching according to some yahoo or whatever, courts changing mail in balloting rules last minute, etc...
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Polls don't take into account USPS snafus, signatures not matching according to some yahoo or whatever, courts changing mail in balloting rules last minute, etc...

Yes, they do not take these things into account. I doubt they will produce the large shift needed for Trump to win this.

Take the issue of mail-in ballots being invalidated. Most estimates put that at about 1% of total ballots. Since about 50% of total ballots this year are by mail, it will invalidate .5% of the votes. 2/3's of those are democrats, so Trump would gain a little over .1% (dems lose .3% and reps lose .2%). If 2% are invalidated instead, then you can double that.

Fortunately we don't have much longer to argue over this. We'll know soon enough.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
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