I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,459
987
126

Trafalgar says Trump has 275 already in the bag.

They play it up when the predict a win but then downplay when they are off by 9% like they were in Texas in 2018. They claim to be accurate but yet we’re 9% off in Texas, if they are off like that again Trump easily loses Texas this year.

Plus they accidentally released their cross tabs that show they are smoking crack.

Normal pollsters always post their cross tabs Traglager never does. This accidental data leak has Trump winning the youth vote by 15%, independents by 28%, and winning 25% of the African American vote as well as 30% of Dems. This isn’t based on their actual polling but how they have chosen to skew and manipulate their polls in the name of shy Trump voters.
 
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Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,726
2,501
126
IMO (and that of a lot of legal scholars and nearly all patriots regardless of party) the core and most fundamental right is the right to vote. Nevertheless the GOP is moving heaven and earth to contest, disqualify and therefore not count the votes of hundreds of thousands, probably millions of American citizens, often on the most specious of grounds.

Can you imagine the outrage if gunowners were put through the same mill to buy guns or ammo?

The GOP even went so far as to place a hand picked Supreme Court Justice days before the election. That's like the home team being able to substitute a ref of their choice at the two minute warning.

Break the postal system-especially in select Democratic strongholds of swing states-purposefully ignore the COVID pandemic and make it worse, then claim votes should be not counted because they are tied up in the system Trump intentionally trashed-how can anyone claim that is justice or maintaining the security of the electoral process? It's making our elections shams.

The GOP is following Communist dictator and bloodthirsty villain Joseph Stalin's playbook to the T: "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." This election will not be lost at the polls but it more likely to be stolen by the GOP with the imprimatur of the partisan judges and justices. What was once the strength of the American system, that we were formerly a society based upon law and not the whims of man, is being destroyed to preserve minority control.

If Biden wins, and if the Dems get control of both legislative branches, there better be a substantive law passed to preserve the right to vote and outlaw this BS.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Folks, Joe isn’t going to win Florida. The minority vote is simply not turning out and without that Joe has no chance. Now, Trump is up by 7 in the Des Moines register poll which is the polling official for IOwa. Sadly, this is turning out to be a repeat of 2016.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,839
49,548
136
Folks, Joe isn’t going to win Florida. The minority vote is simply not turning out and without that Joe has no chance. Now, Trump is up by 7 in the Des Moines register poll which is the polling official for IOwa. Sadly, this is turning out to be a repeat of 2016.
It is frankly baffling how you cling to outlier polls to make yourself feel bad. Again, at least when Trumpkins do this it’s because it makes them feel good. Why do you cherry pick results to make yourself feel bad?

For example I didn’t see you touting a high quality poll that showed Biden up 17 in Wisconsin? Wouldn’t it be better for you emotionally and just as intellectually honest, to pretend those were the right ones?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,839
49,548
136
It is so weird that the OP here sees his preferred candidate up by ~8 points, historic landslide levels, and constantly laments how he is doomed.

Biden’s victory isn’t certain but he’s in one of the strongest spots for a challenger in modern history. If you think even he’s doomed then you think everyone is doomed.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,396
4,632
136
This accidental data leak has Trump winning the youth vote by 15%, independents by 28%, and winning 25% of the African American vote as well as 30% of Dems. This isn’t based on their actual polling but how they have chosen to skew and manipulate their polls in the name of shy Trump voters.
CNN released final poll of 4 battleground states have Biden with 55-58 to 35-38 advantage with independents
 
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Franz316

Senior member
Sep 12, 2000
979
434
136
CNN released final poll of 4 battleground states have Biden with 55-58 to 35-38 advantage with independents
It's going to be the independents that decide this thing, hopefully correcting their mistake from the first time around.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,396
4,632
136
It's going to be the independents that decide this thing, hopefully correcting their mistake from the first time around.
Yup the independent vote is enough margin for Biden to win. Ignoring the Dems that didn't vote in 2016. Ignoring all the Reps flipping and choosing country over party. Ignore the Hispanics willing to vote Trumpity Dumpity. Ignore the "silent majority".
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
Yes, they do not take these things into account. I doubt they will produce the large shift needed for Trump to win this.

Take the issue of mail-in ballots being invalidated. Most estimates put that at about 1% of total ballots. Since about 50% of total ballots this year are by mail, it will invalidate .5% of the votes. 2/3's of those are democrats, so Trump would gain a little over .1% (dems lose .3% and reps lose .2%). If 2% are invalidated instead, then you can double that.

Fortunately we don't have much longer to argue over this. We'll know soon enough.
I've heard that roughly 0.5% of in person ballots get spoiled for one reason or another too. Heard it on a podcast, haven't verified myself.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
Folks, Joe isn’t going to win Florida. The minority vote is simply not turning out and without that Joe has no chance. Now, Trump is up by 7 in the Des Moines register poll which is the polling official for IOwa. Sadly, this is turning out to be a repeat of 2016.
Get on the phones tomorrow and start calling people in Miami. You don't have to be a passive victim.
 

Mr Burns

Junior Member
Sep 5, 2008
14
2
66
Folks, Joe isn’t going to win Florida. The minority vote is simply not turning out and without that Joe has no chance. Now, Trump is up by 7 in the Des Moines register poll which is the polling official for IOwa. Sadly, this is turning out to be a repeat of 2016.

I admit, I'm not that big into politics and such. I am not registered with any party (aka independent). I am in the place you mention. Everyone I know that went full Trump in 2016 (ok 5 or 6 people, but that is still 100% of the ones I know) has gone full anti Trump now. I voted myself, so from my point of view the people that put Trump over the edge in 2016 are not doing it again. So let's wait and see.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,464
7,074
136
I admit, I'm not that big into politics and such. I am not registered with any party (aka independent). I am in the place you mention. Everyone I know that went full Trump in 2016 (ok 5 or 6 people, but that is still 100% of the ones I know) has gone full anti Trump now. I voted myself, so from my point of view the people that put Trump over the edge in 2016 are not doing it again. So let's wait and see.

The Fix is in though with SCOTUS.
 
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ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,793
1,358
136
IMO (and that of a lot of legal scholars and nearly all patriots regardless of party) the core and most fundamental right is the right to vote. Nevertheless the GOP is moving heaven and earth to contest, disqualify and therefore not count the votes of hundreds of thousands, probably millions of American citizens, often on the most specious of grounds.

Can you imagine the outrage if gunowners were put through the same mill to buy guns or ammo?

The GOP even went so far as to place a hand picked Supreme Court Justice days before the election. That's like the home team being able to substitute a ref of their choice at the two minute warning.

Break the postal system-especially in select Democratic strongholds of swing states-purposefully ignore the COVID pandemic and make it worse, then claim votes should be not counted because they are tied up in the system Trump intentionally trashed-how can anyone claim that is justice or maintaining the security of the electoral process? It's making our elections shams.

The GOP is following Communist dictator and bloodthirsty villain Joseph Stalin's playbook to the T: "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." This election will not be lost at the polls but it more likely to be stolen by the GOP with the imprimatur of the partisan judges and justices. What was once the strength of the American system, that we were formerly a society based upon law and not the whims of man, is being destroyed to preserve minority control.

If Biden wins, and if the Dems get control of both legislative branches, there better be a substantive law passed to preserve the right to vote and outlaw this BS.
Except ultimately, the courts will decide on the interpretation and implementation. And we all know they are impartial and will not try to impede anyone's vote.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Does anyone think that it looks bad when Joe is so careful and appearing so politically correct during his rallies? I know about keeping safe and Biden wanting his audience to stay safe, but I think it hurts Joe’s impression. When Trump says stuff like Biden will close down schools and business and cities I think that resonates certainly with his base but also with those undecided voters and not quite sure voters who are watching Joe Biden acting so careful. People might think yes, Joe WILL INDEED close everything back down. Just look at how he conducts his rallies. And when people watch those Trump rallies packed with people, that alone can give the illusion that Donald Trump is the place to be. When we see hundreds of people lined up waiting for the latest iPhone, people think wow, I need that new iPhone too. Well, kinda the same with those huge Trump rallies. State after state, rally after rally Trump has no problem getting the people to come out. I know this is the way it is for Trump and for Biden where one doesn’t care and the other maybe cares a little too much. But I think this definitely hurts Biden because people like a winner and while Biden has the best argument, Trump gives the best appearance of the side to be on. People go where the action is and I hope Joe isn’t turning people off.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,895
34,860
136
Does anyone think that it looks bad when Joe is so careful and appearing so politically correct during his rallies? I know about keeping safe and Biden wanting his audience to stay safe, but I think it hurts Joe’s impression. When Trump says stuff like Biden will close down schools and business and cities I think that resonates certainly with his base but also with those undecided voters and not quite sure voters who are watching Joe Biden acting so careful. People might think yes, Joe WILL INDEED close everything back down. Just look at how he conducts his rallies. And when people watch those Trump rallies packed with people, that alone can give the illusion that Donald Trump is the place to be. When we see hundreds of people lined up waiting for the latest iPhone, people think wow, I need that new iPhone too. Well, kinda the same with those huge Trump rallies. State after state, rally after rally Trump has no problem getting the people to come out. I know this is the way it is for Trump and for Biden where one doesn’t care and the other maybe cares a little too much. But I think this definitely hurts Biden because people like a winner and while Biden has the best argument, Trump gives the best appearance of the side to be on. People go where the action is and I hope Joe isn’t turning people off.

These constructs have little basis in the real opinion of the electorate.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-among-most-americans-poll-finds/6066102002/

But as Trump and Biden embrace strikingly different approaches to campaigning during the coronavirus pandemic, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds that nearly two-thirds of likely voters prefer Biden’s low-key strategy to Trump's raucous fanfare.

Nearly six in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump's decision to continue to hold large rallies during the pandemic, according to the poll, while nearly 64% approve of Biden's decision to jettison big events in favor of much smaller gatherings.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,895
34,860
136
It would appear to take more than a normal polling error at this point for Trump to pull it off. It's still possible but given the stability of the race seems less and less likely. Also there is no guarantee that any polling error would be in his favor.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,839
49,548
136
It would appear to take more than a normal polling error at this point for Trump to pull it off. It's still possible but given the stability of the race seems less and less likely. Also there is no guarantee that any polling error would be in his favor.
Yes, Trump’s remaining hopes are:
1) an abnormally large, systemic polling error that nets him on average 6 points or so.
2) cheating
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,298
8,213
136
It is frankly baffling how you cling to outlier polls to make yourself feel bad. Again, at least when Trumpkins do this it’s because it makes them feel good. Why do you cherry pick results to make yourself feel bad?

For example I didn’t see you touting a high quality poll that showed Biden up 17 in Wisconsin? Wouldn’t it be better for you emotionally and just as intellectually honest, to pretend those were the right ones?

I don't see one can blame sportage for being nervous. Until the result is in nobody can be sure of anything. What gets me is when I search for polls I know to instantly discount national polls, because I've learned it doesn't really matter who gets the most votes, all that matters are those few 'swing states'. In a sane system one would see Biden's maintained substantial national lead and feel quite confident.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,839
49,548
136
I don't see one can blame sportage for being nervous. Until the result is in nobody can be sure of anything. What gets me is when I search for polls I know to instantly discount national polls, because I've learned it doesn't really matter who gets the most votes, all that matters are those few 'swing states'. In a sane system one would see Biden's maintained substantial national lead and feel quite confident.
Right, but even if we limit ourselves solely to the swing states Biden has a lead large enough that it would take an abnormally large, systemic polling error for him to lose.

As always this is not impossible and so people SHOULD feel nervous! There’s a difference between acknowledging that some uncertainty exists though and cherry picking polls. One is empirically grounded and one is an exercise in self deception.
 
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