I think the market is going to crash again

[PepePeru]

I think you're looking at the chart upside down.

 

[JDub02]

i think we've been seeing a bear rally. i don't think it has too much longer to go before it starts tumbling down again.

my biggest concern is the currency. at rate the fed is devaluing the dollar, it won't be too long before it's more valuable as kindling.

 

[Stojakapimp]

When everybody is saying it's time to sell, that's the time to buy

 

[cHeeZeFacTory]

markets will fall once all this 'free' gov't money runs out.

 

[God Mode]

Originally posted by: JDub02
i think we've been seeing a bear rally. i don't think it has too much longer to go before it starts tumbling down again.

my biggest concern is the currency. at rate the fed is devaluing the dollar, it won't be too long before it's more valuable as kindling.

What are your thoughts on the euro versus dollar?

 

[Miramonti]

people always predict crashes right after there was just a crash. where were you a year ago?

 

[FoBoT]

what about inflation, when is the inflation going to start skyrocketing

 

[Locut0s]

Originally posted by: FoBoT
what about inflation, when is the inflation going to start skyrocketing

United States of Zimbabwe?

 

[oiprocs]

Originally posted by: zerocool84

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: venkman

Originally posted by: RESmonkey
They just write it off /kramer

you don't even know what that means

No, but they do, and they're the ones writing it off.

Seinfeld quotes should be in the everyday vernacular.

I'm diggin' your vernacular.

 

[Analog]

Gold > $1000 FTW

 

[IronWing]

If the markets tank again the American electorate, no the American people, will be a boiling, seething, shrieking mass of indifference.

 

[Special K]

Here's an article that might support the OP's statement:

Insiders selling stock at fastest pace since subprime mess hit 2 years ago

Could the recent rally be mostly propped up by stimulus dollars, which means it will come crashing back down after that money has worked its way through the system?

It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Gothgar]

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: venkman

Originally posted by: RESmonkey
They just write it off /kramer

you don't even know what that means

No, but they do, and they're the ones writing it off.

hahahahahahaha, fucking love that episode

 

[DaWhim]

sure........the market can be more irrational than you can be solvent

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: Analog
Gold > $1000 FTW

that definitely won't last. Gold's gonna tank, at least back to the prices before the economy went to the shitter.

The charts tend to predict a couple up and down swings, but that's about as far as my knowledge goes. I listen to the people that sound smart, and pay attention accordingly. I don't day-trade, too much stress, but I basically follow my investments daily.

But viewing the historic market charts, it seems after each collapse, when it started climbing again, it'd reach a point and fall yet again. Sometimes the following drops ended higher than the last, and the market returned to a positive persistent climb.
We might have an idea of the future based on the next correction, whenever it happens. A lot of hope and confidence brings it up faster than it should, then everyone panics at a sneeze and everything tanks. How far it drops the second time, seems to determine the length of the pain and how soon a persistent positive economy can take root.

Originally posted by: Special K
Here's an article that might support the OP's statement:

Insiders selling stock at fastest pace since subprime mess hit 2 years ago

Could the recent rally be mostly propped up by stimulus dollars, which means it will come crashing back down after that money has worked its way through the system?

It will be interesting to see what happens.

I'd say the current rally is on recovering banks, and when the government aid stops it could go one of two ways: if the banks have recovered and repaid the government aid, they should be able to support the economy pretty well. The entire mess is from banks, and also tied to the housing bubble collapse. Housing won't seem to recover properly until banks recover.

Some of the banks are posting positive signs toward holding their own weight, so the future is definitely hazy with a chance of sunshine or storms. Those more in tune with the actual figures, coupled with their own take, will point to one over the other - but it seems everyone is pointing to each direction equally.

 

[manlymatt83]

It's coming.

 

[SunnyD]

Originally posted by: manlymatt83
It's coming.

The boy who cried wolf or chicken little?

Anyhow, I actually agree with you (unfortunately). I think the government wants to push through the holiday season at least and pray there's an unprecedented recovery because of it. However I don't see manufacturers and suppliers mirroring those thoughts. It's going to be a chicken/egg scenario, and unfortunately there are no eggs to be had.

 

[fulltilt39]

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: venkman

Originally posted by: RESmonkey
They just write it off /kramer

you don't even know what that means

No, but they do, and they're the ones writing it off.

I wish I just had the last twenty seconds of my life back.

 

[Gulzakar]

I thought subprime mortgages were one of the root causes? A lot of those interest only and ARM loans are coming to term in the next few years.

 

[manlymatt83]

Originally posted by: Gulzakar
I thought subprime mortgages were one of the root causes? A lot of those interest only and ARM loans are coming to term in the next few years.

The subprimes are back into problem territory.

 

[mshan]

Market crash last fall / winter was predicated on believable at the time belief that global financial markets were possibly going to melt down.

Correction right now may basically be based upon belief we are going to get a square root vs v-shaped recovery.

Hard to see markets crashing back towards those lows given different basic premise of markets then and now (plus, I think I hear more often that market is just ahead of itself, rather than market is grossly overvalued).

 

[manlymatt83]

double post see below

 

[manlymatt83]

Originally posted by: mshan
Market crash last fall / winter was predicated on believable at the time belief that global financial markets were possibly going to melt down.

Correction right now may basically be based upon belief we are going to get a square root vs v-shaped recovery.

Hard to see markets crashing back towards those lows given different basic premise of markets then and now (plus, I think I hear more often that market is just ahead of itself, rather than market is grossly overvalued).

Historically high P/E's mean nothing I guess.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: manlymatt83
Been doing a lot of reading, and a lot of chart looking. Lot's of gaps in the major indexes looking to get filled, and most of them require a significant bear movement to be filled.

What are your thoughts?

If you're talking about any 'usual' correction, yeah sure - it'll go down.

How "significant" do you mean?

If you mean something really big, hard to say (obviously) and as important 'when'?

Right now I'm not sure where that money would go. I think that's one thing keeping the market up right. Treasuries don't pay, I think municipals are risky given the states' poor finacial condition and outlook. The other thing keeping some stocks up are foreign profits which continue to look all the better as the result of the falling dollar.

For me, too many variables to get my arms around. However, I continue to grow more pessistic about our economic prospects and my instincts are to be very cautious.

Fern

 

[mshan]

I've seen savvy commentary saying that the last 100 points down on SP500 (say 750 - 666) last fall was pure panic.

I've also seen others comment much earlier in the year that fair value, assuming tepid growth, was around SP900 (That has probably been bumped up to something slightly over 1000 now).

There are lots of tailwinds at least for rest of year (easy comparisons, inventory rebuild and stimulus spending), plus how many money managers are still underperforming their benchmarks and need to catch up by year end or risk being out of business).

I think real risk is next year, and hopefully that translates into flat or just slightly down (basically we are stealing some of next year's returns this year).

I also remember hearing savvy commentary that a 5 - 10% correction can happen anytime...

Other interesting comment I think I remember reading was that all net inflows into the market this year were into BOND market, not stock market (I think it was something like $500 billion of $1.3 trillion on sidelines).

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