If a war occured between china and the us how would it affect buisness in the usa

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
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Lets saw a war occurs between the usa ans China over some type of geopolitical event. This war ends up causing chinese and taiwaniese factories to stop output.

How would companies like Apple fare? What about american buisness in general? The majority of everything is made in china.

How would the handle such an event?
 

realibrad

Lifer
Oct 18, 2013
12,337
898
126
Lets saw a war occurs between the usa ans China over some type of geopolitical event. This war ends up causing chinese and taiwaniese factories to stop output.

How would companies like Apple fare? What about american buisness in general? The majority of everything is made in china.

How would the handle such an event?

So assuming its not a nuke war and go from there.

The US has a global reach China does not have. We would flatten their industrial sector, and they would try and hack ours. We would cripple them far more than any damage they would do to US. We would start to feel the pain of more expensive labor, and many companies would lose money, but you would see them simply go to other slightly more expensive countries and get their stuff made. A full out war without Nukes the US will wreck China.

It would also through the world into a massive recession. You have over a billion people in China and wrecking their infrastructure would kill people on a scale never seen before.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,602
29,319
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Yeah, something tells me we are past the days of world wars. I just don't see it happening in modern society. We are rapidly moving toward a one world government type deal I think.
 
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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
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So assuming its not a nuke war and go from there.

The US has a global reach China does not have. <snip>

Not only that, the US has these that china does not have (in Asia/surrounding area):

Allies = Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand just to name a few. They can provide bases for military purposes and supplies.
Friends = Singapore.
Neutral (that will not support china in case of war) = Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and so on. If china fulfils its threat to claim almost the whole SCS then these countries will move onto the "friends/allies" zone because of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

As a matter of fact, Obama will visit a few countries in Asia by the end of this month. Words are the US will increase military aid to Philippines and remove the arms ban toward Vietnam. Stay tuned.

What does china have beside fair weather friend Pakistan and "our dear leader fat guy" N. Korea? Maybe Sri Lanka?
 
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PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
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The economic world is quickly becoming so intertwined that it's becoming harder to imagine any kind of significant conflict between large economic powers.
 

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
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Apple stocks are already going down due to instability in the Chinese government. They've dropped over 20% in the last few months. A war would break the economy for both countries. We'd need to quickly restructure for a war-time economy like we had in WWII. I think it would be MUCH harder these days and nearly everyone would be personally affected.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,454
7,064
136
People will start imagining stuff in their chinese food and "charlies" everywhere even if they're not chinese. So the food industry would be affected.
 

realibrad

Lifer
Oct 18, 2013
12,337
898
126
Apple stocks are already going down due to instability in the Chinese government. They've dropped over 20% in the last few months. A war would break the economy for both countries. We'd need to quickly restructure for a war-time economy like we had in WWII. I think it would be MUCH harder these days and nearly everyone would be personally affected.

The advantage the US would have there, is that any ground war would be fought in China and or Asia. There is not really an effective way that China could bring a war to NA. It has some ways to doing damage, but not a land war.

The US would be able to build up manufacturing in its borders to feed its war machine, and the US could just sit back and wait for China to run out of supplies. The US controls the Air and Sea. We destroy their ability to build, and they cannot resupply.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
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Yeah, something tells me we are past the days of world wars. I just don't see it happening in modern society. We are rapidly moving toward a one world government type deal I think.

Keep dreaming. That is just delusional. There will be nuclear exchanges on a catastrophic scale at some point in our future. It is not a question of IF, it is a question of when. The hope is that it happens after we are all dead.

Denying this certainty is denying the character and history of man. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Islamic countries kicking off the destruction of the world, not the Chinese. The Chinese (like the Japanese) have a greater interest in keeping people out of their country than invading Western countries.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,602
29,319
136
Keep dreaming. That is just delusional. There will be nuclear exchanges on a catastrophic scale at some point in our future. It is not a question of IF, it is a question of when. The hope is that it happens after we are all dead.

Denying this certainty is denying the character and history of man. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Islamic countries kicking off the destruction of the world, not the Chinese. The Chinese (like the Japanese) have a greater interest in keeping people out of their country than invading Western countries.
Our difference of opinion stems from a fundamental difference in the way we perceive humanity. I see humanity as mostly good, while you see humanity as mostly evil. The kicker is either of us could switch sides at any moment if we made the decision to do so, by simply choosing to focus on the good or the evil.
 

realibrad

Lifer
Oct 18, 2013
12,337
898
126
Our difference of opinion stems from a fundamental difference in the way we perceive humanity. I see humanity as mostly good, while you see humanity as mostly evil. The kicker is either of us could switch sides at any moment if we made the decision to do so, by simply choosing to focus on the good or the evil.

Being mostly good does not stop the minority from killing off the world.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,602
29,319
136
Being mostly good does not stop the minority from killing off the world.
In this context, when I use the term "mostly," I do not mean 50.1% but closer to 99.99%. Also, just to be clear, I do NOT think bshole thinks humanity is evil in the same proportion.

Regardless, the results of our viewpoints is that I do not believe we are always a sneeze away from global thermal nuclear war while he clearly does. For example, in the extremely unlikely event that someone from ISIL were to get their hands on a nuclear ICBM and were to successfully attack the continental US with it, I do not believe that we would proceed to respond with our own.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
Keep dreaming. That is just delusional. There will be nuclear exchanges on a catastrophic scale at some point in our future. It is not a question of IF, it is a question of when. The hope is that it happens after we are all dead.

Denying this certainty is denying the character and history of man. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Islamic countries kicking off the destruction of the world, not the Chinese. The Chinese (like the Japanese) have a greater interest in keeping people out of their country than invading Western countries.

Maybe not toward "western" countries because they are too far and too advance but the chinese and Japanese (prior to WWII and before) sure like to invade smaller neighbors. Heck, china is claiming 90% of South china Sea as its own lake right now. How did Tibet, East Turk, parts of India, islands (Paracels and parts of Spratlys) of Vietnam, Scarborough Shoal of Philippines became parts of china? Because of invasions from commie china/chinese.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
I am not even considering a major war. Just a small skirmish that would cause china to embargo output to US companies.

There is already some issues. (China banning itunes) and heavily restricting access to US websites.

If china decided to wage just economic war agains the US without a single bullet. (stopping production of good for american companies) it would put a real hurt.

Would how long would it take Apple to be able to start making iphones again if China decides to stop giving Apple access to Foxconn etc..


I wonder if American companies even plan any contingencies in the event of an industrial output outage in china over a prolonged period.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,573
5,096
136
Not only that, the US has these that china does not have (in Asia/surrounding area):

Allies = Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand just to name a few. They can provide bases for military purposes and supplies.
Friends = Singapore.
Neutral (that will not support china in case of war) = Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and so on. If china fulfils its threat to claim almost the whole SCS then these countries will move onto the "friends/allies" zone because of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

As a matter of fact, Obama will visit a few countries in Asia by the end of this month. Words are the US will increase military aid to Philippines and remove the arms ban toward Vietnam. Stay tuned.

What does china have beside fair weather friend Pakistan and "our dear leader fat guy" N. Korea? Maybe Sri Lanka?


Dunno about friends, but China does have one advantage.....probably the world's largest stockpiles/reserves of strategic metals, such as platinum, etc.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
Dunno about friends, but China does have one advantage.....probably the world's largest stockpiles/reserves of strategic metals, such as platinum, etc.

china does NOT have the monopoly on rare earth minerals.

If rare earths are so precious, why isn&#8217;t the United States working harder to collect them? The main reason is that, for these last 25 years, China has been supplying all we could eat at prices we were more than happy to pay. If Beijing wants to raise its prices and start using supplies as geopolitical bargaining chips, so what? The rest of the world will simply roll up its sleeves and ramp up production, and the monopoly will be broken.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...ong-about-rare-earths-and-china/#6c6de38253db

http://www.mining-technology.com/fe...poly-china-and-the-rare-earths-trade-4646712/
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
We don't really have the option of going to war with a major power like China. Whatever the military outcome, such a war would be too economically destabilizing for the entire world. Neither country really has war as a viable option. This is why I predict it will never happen.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
I am not even considering a major war. Just a small skirmish that would cause china to embargo output to US companies.

There is already some issues. (China banning itunes) and heavily restricting access to US websites.

If china decided to wage just economic war agains the US without a single bullet. (stopping production of good for american companies) it would put a real hurt.

Would how long would it take Apple to be able to start making iphones again if China decides to stop giving Apple access to Foxconn etc..


I wonder if American companies even plan any contingencies in the event of an industrial output outage in china over a prolonged period.

It would hurt like hell.... agreed. BUT...... if it resulted in America becoming a manufacturing power again with high paying factory jobs, it could be a net good. In addition it would result in laws that would outlaw American companies exporting jobs overseas to create products to send back to America. China has much more to lose in an embargo situation. A self-sufficient America is not in China's interest. An embargo would accomplish exactly that.

And yes nuclear conflagration is in the world's future. The fastest growing nuclear arsenal on the planet is in Pakistan which is hovering on civil war with radical Islamists on a mission from God. What do you think America's reaction would be if LA/Chicago/NYC/Washington DC were all simultaneously hit, wiping out 25% of the people in those cities and making those cities unlivable for decades?
 
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bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
This isn't from me. It is Obama's greatest fear. It is inevitable. It really really is. On the positive side, Israel would most likely get hit long before America. ISIS is actively attempting to purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan.

India's defence minister has voiced concern that the radical Islamist group Isis could obtain a nuclear weapon from "states like Pakistan".

Rao Inderjit Singh made the comments on the sidelines of the Shangri-La regional security conference in Singapore, Bloomberg has reported.

"With the rise of Isis in West Asia, one is afraid to an extent that perhaps they might get access to a nuclear arsenal from states like Pakistan," Bloomberg quoted him as saying.

Earlier in the month Isis suggested it could attempt to buy its first nuclear weapon within a year and that it might come from Pakistan.

An article in its propaganda magazine Dabiq said: "The Islamic State has billions of dollars in the bank, so they call on their wil&#257;yah [official] in Pakistan to purchase a nuclear device through weapons dealers with links to corrupt officials in the region."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...in-nuclear-weapon-from-pakistan-10287276.html
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,602
29,319
136

1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,313
534
126
Yeah, something tells me we are past the days of world wars. I just don't see it happening in modern society. We are rapidly moving toward a one world government type deal I think.

Something tells me people are incapable of learning the main lesson of wars from history,

no one can predict when or how wars start or how and when they will end.

for example,

World War 1 was supposed to be the last great war and end by Christmas, we all know how that turned out.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
This isn't from me. It is Obama's greatest fear. It is inevitable. It really really is. On the positive side, Israel would most likely get hit long before America. ISIS is actively attempting to purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...in-nuclear-weapon-from-pakistan-10287276.html

Curious. How will they launch this nuclear weapon? I do not see this as a credible threat at all.

They seem incapable of even building a basic dirty bomb using Free uranium available all over the place in Utah.

All they have to do is get enough uranium tailings (all over the place in several states for free)

Grind it to a fine powder, fill up a pressure cooker with it and some explosives and just blow it in some dense city. The area denial effect would be significant enough in addition to the sheer panic effect.

This would active total panic and big headlines. if they cannot achieve this basic level of radiological warfare, I seriously doubt they are capable of actually initiating a nuclear detonation in the US.
 
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