If AMD goes out, who can fill the void?

[Mondozei]

I'm reading on Nordic Hardware that their sources tell them that we're unlikely to see any mass availability of the 380X until Q3 of 2015, even if the card will be officially released in late Q2(around Computex).

By that time, Nvidia will have had ample time to prepare a consumer version GM200 after releading a Quadro/Tesla GM200 GPU in late March at the GPU conference.

Considering that AMD is bleeding red and that 2015, which should have been a slam dunk for them considering their node advantage and HBM, now seems to be another lost opportunity. NHW's sources indicate that AMD is going for 28 for time reasons, even if it's technically possible to do 20 nm at this stage with decent yield. (Money may be another factor). We're going to see some kind of GPUs on 20 nm, as Lisa Su stated, but now it looks likely that it could just end up being their Carrizo APU's graphics part and/or enterprise GPUs.

In 2016, Nvidia will use HBM so that advantage goes away. If AMD stays on 28 nm, then their node advantage will probably be lost in 2016 too. And since most of this year will be lost until Q3, their revenues won't improve.

Anyway, I'm hoping that they'll survive - because monopoly isn't good for anyone, the least of which our wallets and the pace of technical innovation - but it increasingly looks like that they won't and/or will be consigned to niche stuff. Who can/could step in in the desktop GPU space?

 

[cmdrdredd]

nobody unfortunately. Nobody is in position to take over in the dGPU space.

 

[dn7309]

AMD will sell ATi to a group of investors, or some big semiconductors company.

 

[DooKey]

Whoever buys the IP.

 

[Teizo]

AMD will sell ATi to a group of investors, or some big semiconductors company.

If they go into bankruptcy...whoever buys ATI is going to make a fortune, because ATI can, and will continue, to make quality GPUs.

 

[Bobisuruncle54]

If they go into bankruptcy...whoever buys ATI is going to make a fortune, because ATI can, and will continue, to make quality GPUs.

Exactly.

A big reason why AMD GPUs aren't selling as well as they should is due to Nvidia's marketing and questionable business practices. It's a direct parallel to what Intel did during the P4 era, except Nvidia appear to be more adept at it.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Whoever buys the IP.

Not if a company like BLX buys it.

If they go into bankruptcy...whoever buys ATI is going to make a fortune, because ATI can, and will continue, to make quality GPUs.

A fortune on what exactly? Because from the looks of it AMD couldnt do it.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Not really sure why anyone would buy AMD. They trail badly in cpus and face stiff competition from both intel and ARM. Plus I am not sure what would happen to the x86 license.

Their dgpus are very good, but again they face stiff competition from nvidia, and it is a declining market.

I am sure intel would love to have their graphics tech, but the regulators would never let intel buy amd.

So i think they will continue along pretty much as they have, making just enough to survive.
The crisis will come when the console contracts expire, whether they get the next one, and how Zen turns out.

 

[jackstar7]

This has, time and again, proven to not be a business analysis site/board.

 

[sandorski]

McDonalds, aka, why another one of these threads?

 

[SimianR]

Not if a company like BLX buys it.



A fortune on what exactly? Because from the looks of it AMD couldnt do it.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that ATI was doing pretty well financially before they were purchased by AMD. You can't really support a company the size of AMD (when they purchased ATI) on dedicated GPU sales alone. AMD's market share losses in the server segment, the desktop market, laptop CPU's.. the list goes on. The spin off of Global Foundries should have happened much sooner IMO.

 

[Magic Carpet]

I don't want another 3dfx case.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

With the crap Nvidia just pulled with the 970, I can't imagine what they'd do with no AMD.

 

[Riceninja]

a samsung buyout of the IP would be ideal. another big time player with the r&d funds to back it up and their own manufacturing facilities/expertise. this industry needs a serious kick in the ass; like them or not samsung has made big splashes in every market they've entered.

 

[Techhog]

This has, time and again, proven to not be a business analysis site/board.

I don't know what you're talking about. Everyone here says that AMD will definitely 100% die by the end of next year, so it must be true! Just like it was true for RIM/BlackBerry and Nintendo years back!

 

[Silverforce11]

Apple or Samsung would benefit the most from getting ATI's engineers and GPU IP.

Apple because they already use Radeons in their lineup, they love to do things their way, so top to bottom all Apple designs = perfection in their view. They'll also love to expand the pro lineup, with their own GPU, the margins can be even better.

Samsung because they need a better GPU tech, they are not competitive with Qualcomm and end up using Snapdragons in their devices, which is NOT what they want. Again, they love total control of the product top to bottom, more profits for them. Also their PC lineup will benefit as well, since they do have a strong notebook & PC market.

To both of these guys, buying out AMD's GPU division & IP = chump change.

 

[Teizo]

A fortune on what exactly? Because from the looks of it AMD couldnt do it.

That is because AMD is run by a bunch of....

 

[VirtualLarry]

If someone is going to buy AMD (either for their graphics IP, or possibly their ARM or x86 designs), I think that I would want it to be Samsung. They have deep enough pockets to absorb a company like AMD, and actually use their technology to compete on the market.

Not some chinese company that just wants to make x86 CPUs with backdoors and sell them cheap globally.

 

[DeathReborn]

Apple or Samsung would benefit the most from getting ATI's engineers and GPU IP.

Apple because they already use Radeons in their lineup, they love to do things their way, so top to bottom all Apple designs = perfection in their view. They'll also love to expand the pro lineup, with their own GPU, the margins can be even better.

Samsung because they need a better GPU tech, they are not competitive with Qualcomm and end up using Snapdragons in their devices, which is NOT what they want. Again, they love total control of the product top to bottom, more profits for them. Also their PC lineup will benefit as well, since they do have a strong notebook & PC market.

To both of these guys, buying out AMD's GPU division & IP = chump change.

The downside to Apple buying ATi would effectively be the death of Radeon on Windows/Linux as they'll make it Apple only.

Samsung I wouldn't mind as they could use the IP as you say and they also should be able to compete well for marketshare with Nvidia/Intel.

 

[videogames101]

Apple is sitting on like $150 billion in cash, it wouldn't be much of a stretch to imagine an outright purchase.

 

[MongGrel]

McDonalds, aka, why another one of these threads?

I was going to say Taco Bell myself, but NM.

 

[sandorski]

I was going to say Taco Bell myself, but NM.

My limited experience with Taco Bell would cause great angst if they bought AMD. :|

 

[lyssword]

ati should unsplit, lol. Ati should become its own company and buy amd :sneaky:

 

[SimianR]

PowerVR bring on the Kyro3!

 

[DooKey]

Exactly.

A big reason why AMD GPUs aren't selling as well as they should is due to Nvidia's marketing and questionable business practices. It's a direct parallel to what Intel did during the P4 era, except Nvidia appear to be more adept at it.

No. AMD GPUs aren't selling because they are connected to the crappy, cheap, AMD cpu reputation. Not to mention the lack of any kind of reasonable marketing.