If China invades Taiwan in 2027, what happens to our tech?

[positivedoppler]

Qualcom, AMD, Nvidia, Apple, and probably many more manufacturers from TSMC. Are we all stuck with Intel if China invades?

It seems like it's not a question of if, but a question of when. China is very quickly building up its military.

Milley: China Wants Capability to Take Taiwan by 2027, Sees No Near-term Intent to Invade - USNI News

China wants the ability to invade and hold Taiwan within the next six years but might not intend to do so in the near term, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress today. Milley said congressional testimony earlier this year from former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command...

news.usni.org

A look at China's trajectory

Why China could win the new global arms race

China has a long-term plan to rival the world's biggest military powers.

www.bbc.com

So ballpark, by 2040 China will have twice the naval vessels compared to the US, which now they are trying to achieve by 2027 according to Xi.
Outpacing our Nuclear arsenal, expanding their hypersonic missiles, and utilizing AI "Reports suggest that China may already be using artificial intelligence in military robotics and missile guidance systems, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned naval vessels." Sounds scary.

 

[K1052]

Why China could win the new global arms race

China has a long-term plan to rival the world's biggest military powers.

www.bbc.com

So ballpark, by 2040 China will have twice the naval vessels compared to the US, which now they are trying to achieve by 2027 according to Xi.
Outpacing our Nuclear arsenal, expanding their hypersonic missiles, and utilizing AI "Reports suggest that China may already be using artificial intelligence in military robotics and missile guidance systems, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned naval vessels." Sounds scary.

I read things like this and I'm like "huh" then I remember they have barely even been able to rip off decades old narrow body civil aircraft after stealing all the tech and stuffing them with foreign components and I'm more like "hmmmmm".

Truly I'm sure China would be a substantial foe but I'm again suspecting a lot of their equipment is overpromised like the Russians.

 

[positivedoppler]

I don't think they're as far behind as we would like to believe. 1. ) They have the 2nd most amount of satellites in space. 2.) Look on Amazon and Newegg, most tech gadgets are manufactured in China. 3.) They are 4 times our population with a much stronger cultural emphasize on education. China's been utilizing our top notch universities now. In Academia, science, and engineering, they've pretty much caught up.

https://en.wikipedia.orgwiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_scientific_and_technical_journal_articles

 

[sportage]

Probably THIS would happen.
It wouldn't be that bad.

 

[Denly]

Qualcom, AMD, Nvidia, Apple, and probably many more manufacturers from TSMC. Are we all stuck with Intel if China invades?

that's why it is not happening.

 

[akugami]

The west is already taking steps to mitigate any disturbances caused by China. Chipmaking is already being moved to other countries in an effect to be less dependent on China.

I don't think China will invade Taiwan unless it is absolutely 100% sure it will be able to win before the US can mount any aid. And I think China will need to do so with minimal destruction of infrastructure, especially Taiwan's tech sector.

Instead, China has a comprehensive multi-prong approach on combating the west.

China has coupled themselves with both Europe and the United States to such a degree that it will be hard to separate from China without huge economic impacts. China has also pretty much tied Africa to itself, as well as making headway in S. America. Russia, due to its own stupidity, has to rely on China at this point.

China has control of major raw resources that is critical in future manufacturing.

The one area where the United States, Europe, and their allies have over China is a technological advantage in manufacturing silicon based chips. For now, this is a very real advantage and the basis for much of the west's advantage over China.

The problem is, for how long? China is probably about 15 years behind the US at this point. The major hurdle seems to be the lithography machines used to etch the raw silicon wafers. The US has hampered China's ability to manufacture the latest silicon chips. This has hurt China deeply and is a major setback for China, but by hook, or by crook, China will push forward on this front. The politburo has already made nationalized push towards chip manufacturing. China will shorten the gap. It's just a matter of when. Part of the reason why China will shorten the gap is it gets harder and harder to manufacture chips with smaller nodes, but part of the reason is China is not trailblazing but merely following behind.

The US will still enjoy a technological lead for at least the next decade, possibly two decades. But what happens after that? I think it's up in the air.

 

[K1052]

I don't think they're as far behind as we would like to believe. 1. ) They have the 2nd most amount of satellites in space. 2.) Look on Amazon and Newegg, most tech gadgets are manufactured in China. 3.) They are 4 times our population with a much stronger cultural emphasize on education. China's been utilizing our top notch universities now. In Academia, science, and engineering, they've pretty much caught up.

https://en.wikipedia.orgwiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_scientific_and_technical_journal_articles

Also a country that could not develop a working mRNA vaccine.

 

[positivedoppler]

Probably THIS would happen.
It wouldn't be that bad.

View attachment 77300

Can you hear youtube with this when inside the bathroom?

 

[rommelrommel]

Of note, your article is almost 2 years old.

Size of the PLA Navy is not what is gonna determine ability to attempt the most difficult amphibious invasion ever. It will help them sure, but it's not decisive.

If the USA is ready to intervene right off the bat and take losses the PRC can't capture Taiwan. If other regional players decide it's time to knock the PRC down a few pegs the beatdown will be brutal. Costly for everyone, but disproportionately so for the PRC. Sure, the PRC is making moves but so is the USA, Japan, and Taiwan. A few other countries that have no interest in the PRC expanding may either jump in or at least take advantage and give them extra headaches. If the PRC's various claimed surface to air and air to air capabilities are actually bullshit as they could be, it would be a total rout. Not far down the road the USA is going to be able to have constant waves of B21 bombers that are totally immune to PRC intercept firing volleys of JASSM-XR from maybe 2000 km away. Taiwan is hopefully learning from Ukraine and deciding to put their money into masses of ground launched anti-ship missiles.

There is another good mega thread around about Taiwan here I think. If Taiwan had a land border with the PRC it would be way different, but amphibious invasions are really, really hard. They were hard for the allies in WW2 even with experience and naval and air supremacy. The PRC doesn't have meaningful battle experience let alone experience with amphibious operations.

 

[Leeea]

Qualcom, AMD, Nvidia, Apple, and probably many more manufacturers from TSMC.

And that is why the USNavy gets directly involved on day 1 of said invasion.


Did you know that back in the 1980s a single US carrier flight group could put over 600 harpoons in the air at a time? It is a big ocean, fighter jets fly fast, and said carrier does not need to be anywhere near Taiwan to turn any amphibious assault into a complete slaughter.

 

[fskimospy]

Probably THIS would happen.
It wouldn't be that bad.

View attachment 77300

My house literally had that phone until about 1996.

 

[Meghan54]

Of note, your article is almost 2 years old.

Size of the PLA Navy is not what is gonna determine ability to attempt the most difficult amphibious invasion ever. It will help them sure, but it's not decisive.

If the USA is ready to intervene right off the bat and take losses the PRC can't capture Taiwan. If other regional players decide it's time to knock the PRC down a few pegs the beatdown will be brutal. Costly for everyone, but disproportionately so for the PRC. Sure, the PRC is making moves but so is the USA, Japan, and Taiwan. A few other countries that have no interest in the PRC expanding may either jump in or at least take advantage and give them extra headaches. If the PRC's various claimed surface to air and air to air capabilities are actually bullshit as they could be, it would be a total rout. Not far down the road the USA is going to be able to have constant waves of B21 bombers that are totally immune to PRC intercept firing volleys of JASSM-XR from maybe 2000 km away. Taiwan is hopefully learning from Ukraine and deciding to put their money into masses of ground launched anti-ship missiles.

There is another good mega thread around about Taiwan here I think. If Taiwan had a land border with the PRC it would be way different, but amphibious invasions are really, really hard. They were hard for the allies in WW2 even with experience and naval and air supremacy. The PRC doesn't have meaningful battle experience let alone experience with amphibious operations.

Do not forget Australia.

 

[Pens1566]

Also a country that could not develop a working mRNA vaccine.

Also a country with no real modern battle experience to speak of. On the other side of that coin, we've got quite a bit of practice in.

 

[Lezunto]

So, why is China waiting after years of bellicose threats and illogical overreactions?

 

[Indus]

China does not have a lot resources by itself other than manpower.

Sure they can brute force it like Russia as they have much more cannon fodder but resources is a key thing that can be blocked.

Remember those submarines that used to torpedo ships in the atlantic in WW1 and WW2 to stop supplies and resources?

Well think that on a much bigger scale but it would be foolish to underestimate it totally given the resources for meatgrinding.

They could accept to lose 300 million people easily and still call that a victory over Taiwan and the west but the hard part is getting those 300 mil people to Taiwan. There's no land bridge like Ukraine and you're seeing how hard it is for Russia with land.

I think the lesson from the Ukraine war is.. don't trust Russia and don't give on Nuclear ambitions.

If Ukraine still had nukes.. Russia would think twice maybe. And maybe China would too.

 

[akugami]

China does not have a lot resources by itself other than manpower.

Sure they can brute force it like Russia as they have much more cannon fodder but resources is a key thing that can be blocked.

Remember those submarines that used to torpedo ships in the atlantic in WW1 and WW2 to stop supplies and resources?

Well think that on a much bigger scale but it would be foolish to underestimate it totally given the resources for meatgrinding.

They could accept to lose 300 million people easily and still call that a victory over Taiwan and the west but the hard part is getting those 300 mil people to Taiwan. There's no land bridge like Ukraine and you're seeing how hard it is for Russia with land.

I think the lesson from the Ukraine war is.. don't trust Russia and don't give on Nuclear ambitions.

If Ukraine still had nukes.. Russia would think twice maybe. And maybe China would too.

As per my previous post, I just don't think an invasion by China is likely except in the extremely unlikely scenario where they can obtain a near flawless victory with minimal infrastructure damage to Taiwan. It does China no good if they win, but are left with a charred husk.This is a case where, I feel like China will win, but it will cost them far worse than they're willing to pay.

I believe the more likely scenario is, China plays the long game by fighting the war through economy. This is a multi-pronged approach where they play catch-up to the west, by hook or by crook. They also tie various economies to them. This has already been happening since the 2000's. China controls or has their fingers deep into many countries in Africa. Russia is basically dependent on them. And China has deep economical ties to Europe and the United States.

I would also not discount the natural resources that China either has, or controls. According to statistica.com, China is the 6th largest in terms of natural resources and has huge deposits of rare earth metals. But as we look at the list, Russia is the largest, and Russia clearly is dependent on China at this point. China also has huge ties to Africa, which is probably the richest continent in terms of natural resources. So while the US definitely has an advantage as a single isolated country vs China in terms of natural resources, China has huge resources, or has the means to obtain a lot of resources it lacks.

The one area the US still has an advantage over China is technology. And China is hell bent at this point in reaching parity with the west. You can disagree with China as a country, but don't assume they are stupid. The recent chip bans on China has hurt China deeply. They are already taking steps to mitigate this beloved patriot in their armor. Whether they can obtain it is another story, and only time will tell.

I would also like to add that what the Chinese government does is not reflective of the peoples in China. The overwhelming majority of people in China just want what most want, prosperity and happiness.

 

[Pens1566]

As per my previous post, I just don't think an invasion by China is likely except in the extremely unlikely scenario where they can obtain a near flawless victory with minimal infrastructure damage to Taiwan. It does China no good if they win, but are left with a charred husk.This is a case where, I feel like China will win, but it will cost them far worse than they're willing to pay.

I believe the more likely scenario is, China plays the long game by fighting the war through economy. This is a multi-pronged approach where they play catch-up to the west, by hook or by crook. They also tie various economies to them. This has already been happening since the 2000's. China controls or has their fingers deep into many countries in Africa. Russia is basically dependent on them. And China has deep economical ties to Europe and the United States.

I would also not discount the natural resources that China either has, or controls. According to statistica.com, China is the 6th largest in terms of natural resources and has huge deposits of rare earth metals. But as we look at the list, Russia is the largest, and Russia clearly is dependent on China at this point. China also has huge ties to Africa, which is probably the richest continent in terms of natural resources. So while the US definitely has an advantage as a single isolated country vs China in terms of natural resources, China has huge resources, or has the means to obtain a lot of resources it lacks.

The one area the US still has an advantage over China is technology. And China is hell bent at this point in reaching parity with the west. You can disagree with China as a country, but don't assume they are stupid. The recent chip bans on China has hurt China deeply. They are already taking steps to mitigate this beloved patriot in their armor. Whether they can obtain it is another story, and only time will tell.

I would also like to add that what the Chinese government does is not reflective of the peoples in China. The overwhelming majority of people in China just want what most want, prosperity and happiness.

The rare earth metals is really the big one. Nothing you can do to change that outside of invasion/occupation, discovery of new sites, or tech advances that no longer require them.

On the other side, the situation has sped up the process of chip fabs going to other places than Taiwan. In a decade or so, that might not even really be a consideration in the calculus.

 

[rommelrommel]

The rare earth metals is really the big one. Nothing you can do to change that outside of invasion/occupation, discovery of new sites, or tech advances that no longer require them.

On the other side, the situation has sped up the process of chip fabs going to other places than Taiwan. In a decade or so, that might not even really be a consideration in the calculus.

Rare earth minerals aren’t actually rare. There are adequate deposits in NA and other friendly countries. They control a lot of the current production because they can extract them cheaply with cheap labour and minimal regulations.

 

[woolfe9998]

So let me get this straight, China is selling all the precursor chemicals that are used to make fentanyl to Mexican cartels, who are then manufacturing fentanyl and sending it into the US. It has killed more people these past three years than all other drugs combined. And they are holding the negotiations over this fentanyl issue hostage to use it as leverage over Taiwain?

So if we let them have their way with Taiwan, they may stop selling these cartels the materials they use to make fentanyl? Fuck them.

 

[UNCjigga]

Damn, China stole my idea for the US!! I guess we can’t establish a “New Taiwan” in Arizona because China’s already paying top dollar to recruit chip talent over to the mainland.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642663352643076096

 

[rommelrommel]

Damn, China stole my idea for the US!! I guess we can’t establish a “New Taiwan” in Arizona because China’s already paying top dollar to recruit chip talent over to the mainland.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642663352643076096

It's a generational project for the PRC because they also have to figure out how to make the EUV machines and such. The USA can do it much, much quicker than trying to steal IP from TSMC and ASML.

 

[Leeea]

So if we let them have their way with Taiwan, they may stop selling these cartels the materials they use to make fentanyl? Fuck them.

Option B:
Naval Blockade.

 

[akugami]

So let me get this straight, China is selling all the precursor chemicals that are used to make fentanyl to Mexican cartels, who are then manufacturing fentanyl and sending it into the US. It has killed more people these past three years than all other drugs combined. And they are holding the negotiations over this fentanyl issue hostage to use it as leverage over Taiwain?

So if we let them have their way with Taiwan, they may stop selling these cartels the materials they use to make fentanyl? Fuck them.

Most of the precursor materials, or pre-precusror materials, have legal uses. And it is under this pretext that shipments are sent to Mexico (and I'm sure other places). It is almost certain that Chinese officials are being bribed to look the other way, especially since the materials have legitimate legal uses. From what I understand, India is getting in on this game as well, though it does nowhere near the volume shipments that China does.

Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall seeing any articles that China would crack down on these precursor material sales for relaxing the US's tech blockade on China.

Also, please remember the general populace is usually innocent. You can condemn China's government, and the individuals and groups making these illicit sales, but the general populace has nothing to do with it.

 

[hal2kilo]

The west is already taking steps to mitigate any disturbances caused by China. Chipmaking is already being moved to other countries in an effect to be less dependent on China.

I don't think China will invade Taiwan unless it is absolutely 100% sure it will be able to win before the US can mount any aid. And I think China will need to do so with minimal destruction of infrastructure, especially Taiwan's tech sector.

Instead, China has a comprehensive multi-prong approach on combating the west.

China has coupled themselves with both Europe and the United States to such a degree that it will be hard to separate from China without huge economic impacts. China has also pretty much tied Africa to itself, as well as making headway in S. America. Russia, due to its own stupidity, has to rely on China at this point.

China has control of major raw resources that is critical in future manufacturing.

The one area where the United States, Europe, and their allies have over China is a technological advantage in manufacturing silicon based chips. For now, this is a very real advantage and the basis for much of the west's advantage over China.

The problem is, for how long? China is probably about 15 years behind the US at this point. The major hurdle seems to be the lithography machines used to etch the raw silicon wafers. The US has hampered China's ability to manufacture the latest silicon chips. This has hurt China deeply and is a major setback for China, but by hook, or by crook, China will push forward on this front. The politburo has already made nationalized push towards chip manufacturing. China will shorten the gap. It's just a matter of when. Part of the reason why China will shorten the gap is it gets harder and harder to manufacture chips with smaller nodes, but part of the reason is China is not trailblazing but merely following behind.

The US will still enjoy a technological lead for at least the next decade, possibly two decades. But what happens after that? I think it's up in the air.

Am completely confused about our African policies regarding China's intrusion into that spere of the world. Same goes for a lot of South America. Asleep at the wheel.

 

[ralfy]

There's no reason for China to invade Taiwan because it's readily trading with the latter and with many other countries in the region. In addition, Taiwan also stated that restrictions on semiconduct trade will actually harm Taiwan more than it would China.

In addition, the major trading partners of Taiwan are the U.S. and China. Add to this the point that neither country recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign state; actually most countries don't.

In relation to the idea about China-China-China (sounds like Trump!) invading-invading-invading Taiwan, most don't know that the context of this is Chinese claims over most of the South China Sea. The punchline:

The claim originated from Taiwan! And one of the countries affected is the Philippines, which is another ally of the U.S.

Given that, the question is why would China want to attack Taiwan? That's not the right question: rather, why would the U.S. want China to attack Taiwan?

The answer has to do with 400 military installations out of what is now 900 from the most warlike country in the world:

Jimmy Carter: US ‘Most Warlike Nation in History of the World’

The only US president to complete his term without war, military attack or occupation has called the United States “the most warlike nation in the history

www.counterpunch.org

used to encircle China:

Given that, I expect the neocons and chicken hawks here to insist that it's all bull again, and sharing it won't make it true, without even proving their point.