If Sanders wins Michigan, it will be the greatest polling error/upset ever

[Phokus]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ial-election-2016/?#livepress-update-20072287

NATE SILVER 9:25 PM
I said earlier today that I had an intuition Sanders could beat his polling in Michigan tonight, but I didn’t expect things to be quite so close. If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. Clinton led by 21.3 percentage points in our final Michigan polling average. Previously, the candidate with the largest lead to lose a state in our database of well-polled primaries and caucuses was Walter Mondale, who led in New Hampshire by 17.1 percentage points but lost to Gary Hart in 1984.

Woah, that is one BIG screwup by the pollsters

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

Edit: Even if he doesn't win, it'd still be the biggest screwup.

 

[Phokus]

Holy shit bernie did it omg

 

[MixMasterTang]

Should make the upcoming weeks very interesting.

 

[ctark]

They called it, Bern won.

 

[Phokus]

LMAO, Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a >99% chance of winning Michigan, how the mighty have fallen!

 

[Phokus]

Prediction markets (where people bet cold hard cash) also got it wrong big time:

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/707429304200781826

 

[Phokus]

:awe: lol nate :awe:

 

[sportage]

Yeah but Hillary has half her delegates needed. Bernie really doesn't have a way to succeed. You can tell that even he knows that. He gave another speech tonight and it was same old wage inequality and the income going to the top 1%. We've heard that before. That speech is getting old. Bernie needs more than just his two line speech if he hopes to win.

 

[senseamp]

The country is in a very interesting place politically. This is truly a watershed election. It's the end of the current gilded age. The current deal is no longer working for the majority of the people, they want a new deal. To some extent it's good that a Socialist is running for President. This country functioned best when there was a real threat of it going Socialist and the ruling elites had a very strong incentive to make sure that the average person participated in the benefits of Capitalism. But with decline of USSR, the elites got it into their heads that Capitalism had a monopoly on US politics, and therefore didn't need to compete anymore. And as usual, when there is no competition, the product (Capitalism) quality deteriorated and costs increased. But now it's gone too far.

 

[Paratus]

Well you know what this is going to mean.

 

[positivedoppler]

Yet Hillary still ends up with more delegates in Mich

 

[MongGrel]

Yet Hillary still ends up with more delegates in Mich

Yep.

http://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/

 

[Phokus]

Yet Hillary still ends up with more delegates in Mich

Well, it does change the narrative though, winning swing states, especially rust belt states, is going to be very important for anyone facing off against Trump in the GE

 

[Balt]

LMAO, Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a >99% chance of winning Michigan, how the mighty have fallen!

I don't really see it that way. 99% is not 100% and he makes a lot of predictions so even his model is bound to miss an 'almost sure thing' now and then.

If you were betting on these things (and many people do), you could probably do much worse than relying on him.

In any case, it's all moot. Short of Hillary ending up in prison, she's probably got the nomination on lock. Despite the protestations of the BernieBros.

 

[umbrella39]

Yet Hillary still ends up with more delegates in Mich

Huh?

DEM MICHIGAN CONTEST CALLED
99.23% reporting

49.88%
Bernie Sanders
65 del.

48.22%
Hillary Clinton
58 del.

 

[MagickMan]

Huh?

DEM MICHIGAN CONTEST CALLED
99.23% reporting

49.88%
Bernie Sanders
65 del.

48.22%
Hillary Clinton
58 del.

Superdelegates. Bernie lost the nomination before the Iowa caucus. You think the DNC didn't already have this all rigged for Clinton? Really?

 

[ctark]

Prediction markets (where people bet cold hard cash) also got it wrong big time:

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/707429304200781826

His model was based off all the previous polling. He had bad data. Not his fault.

 

[boomerang]

Superdelegates. Bernie lost the nomination before the Iowa caucus. You think the DNC didn't already have this all rigged for Clinton? Really?

Yup, the only way Bernie wins is if Hillary loses the FBI primary.

 

[compuwiz1]

Leave Hillary alone! I know I will.

That Chris Crocker fucker needs to make a new video. lol

 

[Bitek]

Bernie Bernie Bernie!!! It's a new day in America!

 

[SP33Demon]

Bernie should start doing this at his rallies and maybe he'll win more superdelegates. :biggrin:

 

[TheSlamma]

but yet the sheep still buy into the polls and still think Trump will win the oval office.

Even people who claim the media is just sensationalism turn around and subscribe to it.

 

[PokerGuy]

This won't change anything as far as the nomination, I agree with Boomerang that the only way Bernie wins is if hildebeast loses the FBI primary.

What's more interesting to me is what it says about how the party rank and file feel about hildebeast. At this point it's clear she's in line for the nomination, they should be coalescing around her. Instead they vote for a socialist kook, so obviously they are not enthused about her at all. This is the same problem the gop has with Trump. It's clear he's the frontrunner and normally he'd start to really run away with things, but there's general unease and discomfort within the party so you don't see the usual coalescing around the frontrunner.

 

[nageov3t]

I'll be curious to see what the post-analysis of the polls is to discover why they failed... in their defense, Michigan hasn't had a contested Democratic primary since like 1992, so it could be something as stupid as their weighting methodology being off.

you've also got complacent Hillary voters (staying home or voting in the Republican primary, assuming Hillary had it locked up) and the fact that it was an open primary (where Bernie does well)

What's more interesting to me is what it says about how the party rank and file feel about hildebeast. At this point it's clear she's in line for the nomination, they should be coalescing around her. Instead they vote for a socialist kook, so obviously they are not enthused about her at all.

I'm not sure it says that entirely... 31% of the people voting in the Democratic primary were non-Democrats (28% independent, 3% Republican). registered Democrats broke for Hillary by about 20 points.

 

[PokerGuy]

I'm not sure it says that entirely... 31% of the people voting in the Democratic primary were non-Democrats (28% independent, 3% Republican). registered Democrats broke for Hillary by about 20 points.

Yes, but remember, hildebeast (like any candidate) can count on the hardcore base for their vote no matter what, just like the gop candidate can expect the vote of their core base no matter what. It's the more noncommitted/independent/apathetic/leaning type votes that always determine the elections. What this shows is that those votes are definitely not enamored with her.

Keep in mind that hildebeast has had many of her strongest states already, other states where she's less of a lock are still to come.

I still don't think she can lose the nomination unless the FBI comes knocking, but it doesn't show strength at this point. Just my 2 cents, worth exactly what was paid for it