Except that's literally not what the data shows. You keep drawing conclusions and calling them reasonable when they're anything but. What you really should be saying is "this conclusion FEELS right to me." Unfortunately, though, being comfortable with a conclusion can have little correlation with it being logically sound.
You're arguing against "guns dramatically increase risk of successful suicide" by arguing "guns don't cause suicide as much as I think they should!" It's not just a strawman, it's an emotional anecdote about a strawman. I know you see those arguments as equivalent or "basically the same" but they aren't at all.
So what does the data show? Keep in mind, I decided to post because of the astounding 10x claim. The CA study I posted doesn't support that, and I can't see how anyone can get that math to work. Using these ratios below, they got 4 for all suicide cases for gun owners, but there are problems with even that ratio.
Edit: Also the 10x claim was for males, so that number here is about 3 instead of 3.6(rounded to 4).
Edit: Maybe that other study isn't that totally off from this one. I thought it might have been biased data, but looked at abstract again, and it says
suicides in the home -- I read as guns in the home. So I think it's reasonable that people that don't own a gun probably kill themselves outside the home more. That probably explains why it's that high, but then that's misleading; we would want all case suicide for both groups.
Pretty obvious what's occurring if half of all suicides for the new handgun owners happen in a year of ownership when it extends out to 12 years.
Men were eight times as likely to kill themselves by gunshot than non-owners. Women were 35 times as likely.
www.nytimes.com
Another possibility was so-called reverse causation: that many buyers were bent on suicide before they bought the gun. The findings did provide some evidence of that. In the month immediately after first-time owners obtained their weapons (California has a 10-day waiting period), the risk of shooting themselves on purpose was nearly 500 per 100,000, about 100 times higher than similar non-owners; after several years it tapered off to about twice the rate.
“We sure do see evidence that people went to get the gun because they had planned to take their own lives,” Dr. Studdert said.