indiana oil refinery shuts down for maintenance, raising gas prices in midwest

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,356
5,754
136
i wondered why gas prices jumped 40 cents while i was at work today - here's the reason.

http://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2015/08/12/gas-prices-increase/31533529/

Gas prices in the Midwest could surge from 30 cents to a dollar because of a key refinery shutdown in Indiana.

BP's refinery in Whiting is having problems with its largest crude distillation unit, which handles more than half of the facility's capacity, according to Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst with GasBuddy.com.

The refinery is the seventh largest in the U.S. and biggest in the Midwest, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's website. Its operable capacity is 413,500 barrels per calendar day.

"Almost immediately, market gasoline prices shot up on the concerns of reduced gasoline supply from the BP refinery," DeHaan said in a written statement, estimating a 15- to 30-cent increase. Other analysts said the increase could be up to a dollar per gallon in just a week.

 
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Jimzz

Diamond Member
Oct 23, 2012
4,399
190
106
"concerns"

i.e. no real shortage but speculators are "concerned".
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
How creative. I can only assume this will further erode the price of oil as there is ~414K barrels less of demand out there for now.
 

Newbian

Lifer
Aug 24, 2008
24,765
852
126
I blame the small gust of wind that blew off a hat of a gas company's ceo and he raised the price because of this global disaster.
 

boomerang

Lifer
Jun 19, 2000
18,883
641
126
Excellent. The future of our nation hinges on skyrocketing energy costs. We'll take higher costs anyway we can get them and for whatever reason or duration. High energy costs are good for the nation.
 

Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
3,964
2
0
The tactic of turning off capacity to reduce supply to force a higher price is hardly new. Enron made hundreds of millions in California alone by getting generation stations to shutdown for no valid reason.

Hey, no need to investigate these tactics...


Brian
 

Bock

Senior member
Mar 28, 2013
319
0
0
Same thing happened when DDR3 jumped prices a few years ago. Double the prices.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Indiana oil refinery shuts down for maintenance, raising gas prices in midwest

Gas jumps 70 cents today back over $3and I get an E-mail from Anandtech signaling the ban on me has been lifted.Coincidence?There is no such things as coincidences.
 
Reactions: brianmanahan

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,873
1,543
126
Meanwhile, the general media announce that gas prices could go as low as $2 in the near future.

Since we've already visited this issue in California, with some tutored speculation that refinery shutdowns are manipulated, do we need to take a closer look at this in a historical long-run perspective past and future?

The number of major oil companies producing and selling primarily in the US (but also elsewhere) are less than the number to make a cartel unstable. There is little substitute for their product in transportation. Demand is increasing world-wide.

Extraction costs are increasing: consider the circumstances of the Deepwater Horizon Blowout.

Since the industry had been joined at the hip with the National Security Apparatus from the early '50s, when we might have been warned about a military-industrial-complex by a president in 1961 without sufficient attention to "strategic minerals;" and since we had the statistical anomalies of (a) 3 presidents from one state since 1960 who (b) gave us four wars -- I'd suggest voters look at the likely industrial connections of this year's slate of candidates and factor it into their decisions.

Or -- choose to ignore it. Civilization rests on the 200-million-year-old rot from a fluke of prehistoric nature. That's not a problem. There's plenty of oil -- that's not a problem. "The price at the pump may go down!" That's not a problem.

No, sir. The problem is the State of California and its production regulations toward the end of air-quality. That's the problem! Yessir!
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,356
5,754
136
Gas jumps 70 cents today back over $3and I get an E-mail from Anandtech signaling the ban on me has been lifted.Coincidence?There is no such things as coincidences.

lol, welcome back dave

i was lucky enough to fill up for 2.55$ at the last gas station within 30 miles that hadn't hiked prices.
 

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,873
1,543
126
don't worry bonzai, we will be on solar and other alternatives almost completely by 2050

Getting down to the simplest truths about it -- all energy on this planet is solar. The energy we're consuming was just created by the sun before it died 200 million years ago.

Over the "long run," we can talk about the "economics of energy" but the physics of energy presents us with a dilemma of staving off the disaster of resource depletion. Even the sun will only last another 3 billion years.

In the economics of supply and demand, Nature only offers the supply of some things with an unlikely chance of "new production," and other things which are only so useful even if they're capable of being produced.

We'll likely revisit nuclear power sources, since newer reactor designs offer smaller, safer options.

Put it another way. If I were running for President, I'd suggest creation of another "NASA-like" organization out of the DoE to make oil partially obsolete. If that wouldn't kill my candidacy immediately, I would find Congress even more deadlocked than it's been during Obama's term. The "industry" wants its short run profits and the "industry" puts money in politicians' pockets. The public wants juice in their tanks. Everyone with a foot on the pedal or major stock ownership in an oil company creates an externality without a sure cost estimate, but it is more likely the future costs are underestimated. And those future costs aren't part of the price at the pump -- but I said that, in a different way I suppose.

When I was a kid, I had a microscope. I'd put some dry straw in a bottle of water and give it sunlight for a couple weeks. There would be all these one-celled animals pursuing their instincts individually, certainly without much "collective action." Eventually, they would die in their own poison and other life-forms would take over, even as the odor would take over the garage where I kept the bottle in the window.

I think . . . . that so much as we're a "paragon of creation," our fate could be similar. If the beetle-infestations, floods, storms, wild-fires and droughts aren't indicative of anything, then wait and see when the extraction costs put the price per gallon at $20. You could hope "the market" will take care of it. But Nature isn't an active market participant. And I'd think that a problem of "addiction" needs some assistance from collective, governmental action. Nationally. And world-wide.

Think about the enormous power of interests disinclined to pursue such a plan.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,012
14,199
146
Getting down to the simplest truths about it -- all energy on this planet is solar. The energy we're consuming was just created by the sun before it died 200 million years ago.

Over the "long run," we can talk about the "economics of energy" but the physics of energy presents us with a dilemma of staving off the disaster of resource depletion. Even the sun will only last another 3 billion years.

In the economics of supply and demand, Nature only offers the supply of some things with an unlikely chance of "new production," and other things which are only so useful even if they're capable of being produced.

We'll likely revisit nuclear power sources, since newer reactor designs offer smaller, safer options.

Put it another way. If I were running for President, I'd suggest creation of another "NASA-like" organization out of the DoE to make oil partially obsolete. If that wouldn't kill my candidacy immediately, I would find Congress even more deadlocked than it's been during Obama's term. The "industry" wants its short run profits and the "industry" puts money in politicians' pockets. The public wants juice in their tanks. Everyone with a foot on the pedal or major stock ownership in an oil company creates an externality without a sure cost estimate, but it is more likely the future costs are underestimated. And those future costs aren't part of the price at the pump -- but I said that, in a different way I suppose.

When I was a kid, I had a microscope. I'd put some dry straw in a bottle of water and give it sunlight for a couple weeks. There would be all these one-celled animals pursuing their instincts individually, certainly without much "collective action." Eventually, they would die in their own poison and other life-forms would take over, even as the odor would take over the garage where I kept the bottle in the window.

I think . . . . that so much as we're a "paragon of creation," our fate could be similar. If the beetle-infestations, floods, storms, wild-fires and droughts aren't indicative of anything, then wait and see when the extraction costs put the price per gallon at $20. You could hope "the market" will take care of it. But Nature isn't an active market participant. And I'd think that a problem of "addiction" needs some assistance from collective, governmental action. Nationally. And world-wide.

Think about the enormous power of interests disinclined to pursue such a plan.

That's not entirely accurate.

While all the fossil fuel and alternative power are from the sun. Technically geothermal and nuclear came from the previous star that formed our solar system.
 

BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
15,873
1,543
126
That's not entirely accurate.

While all the fossil fuel and alternatives are from the sun. Technically geothermal and nuclear came from the previous star that's formed our solar system.

I stand corrected, but that's not a fundamental distinction, and you would likely agree if indicated by the winkie-smiley.

ADDENDUM: I started my first post to this thread with a statement about recent news predicting low gasoline prices. I forgot to tie that up. While I can't tie it up with certainty, the announcement has a stink to it for the election season. That was the point I wanted to make.
 
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CLite

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2005
1,726
7
76
The number of major oil companies producing and selling primarily in the US (but also elsewhere) are less than the number to make a cartel unstable. There is little substitute for their product in transportation. Demand is increasing world-wide.

A couple points....

Refiners usually plan shutdowns for the winter due to lower crack spreads (lower profit) and avoid shutdowns in the summer like the plague. In-fact we have had a couple clients push back summer planned T/A's this year because some crack spreads are quite favorable right now. The crack spread prior to the shutdown was obscenely high at $26 (per Reuters), people get fired for losing production during such a favorable environment. Post- emergency shutdown the crack spread only increased to $28, a temporary 8% increase for BP Whiting's competitor's while a 100% decrease for them.

Secondly, unplanned emergency shutdowns cost absurd amounts of money. Maintenance is usually planned 2-3 years in advance for a T/A, having to bring contractors on-site immediately and respond to an emergency requires intense premiums.

Finally, there are at least 59 refining corporations in the USA, a significant number of which have no upstream production whatsoever and therefore are not directly effected by your extraction cost discussion. I'm referring to parent corporations, there are even more individual companies and then again even more individual refineries. If you want to include chemical plants and other associated facilities, the number increases dramatically. Furthermore, these 59 corporations operate in a number of more or less isolated regions, there are quite a few crack spread metrics because it varies so dramatically around the country.

Now I've never met with executives from any of the 59 corporations, but having been in meetings with engineers whom are refinery managers the idea that there is collusion between these 59 corporations to the extent that someone is willing to break their facility during a $26 crack spread environment to give their competitor's an extra $2 spread is laughable.

Feel free to ignore any/all of the above and continue along with conspiracy theories.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/11/refinery-operation-bp-whiting-idUSL1N10M15N20150811
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Refiners usually plan shutdowns for the winter due to lower crack spreads (lower profit) and avoid shutdowns in the summer like the plague. In-fact we have had a couple clients push back summer planned T/A's this year because some crack spreads are quite favorable right now.

We normally see maintenance shutdowns/overhauls in the spring and fall when the refineries change over fuel blends, summer/winter are their peak output times. Most of these maintenance shutdowns are planned 6 to 9 months in advance, in some cases only portions of the plants are shutdown while still producing product at a lower rate of course. The only process that affects the entire refinery is the crude units as with the case now at the BP Indiana refinery.
 

CLite

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2005
1,726
7
76
We normally see maintenance shutdowns/overhauls in the spring and fall when the refineries change over fuel blends, summer/winter are their peak output times. Most of these maintenance shutdowns are planned 6 to 9 months in advance, in some cases only portions of the plants are shutdown while still producing product at a lower rate of course. The only process that affects the entire refinery is the crude units as with the case now at the BP Indiana refinery.

Right about spring/fall, I misspoke about Winter. Regarding 6-9 months you are perhaps speaking from a contractor's perspective and/or finalizing the work scope. Owner planning begins 2-3 years in advance, procurement alone can easily consume 6-9 months on larger replacement items. I've worked on detailed engineered of quite a few units 2-3 years in advance of a T/A.

Yep, it's the worst unit that could have gone down, and it was recently upgraded in 2012 to handle the discounted Canadian crude. Further making the possibility that it was purposely sabotaged to help their competitor's more ludicrous.
 

highland145

Lifer
Oct 12, 2009
43,784
6,146
136
Indiana oil refinery shuts down for maintenance, raising gas prices in midwest

Gas jumps 70 cents today back over $3and I get an E-mail from Anandtech signaling the ban on me has been lifted.Coincidence?There is no such things as coincidences.
Welcome back, Dave. What did you get, a year?
Besides the fishing, another good decision for moving here, right? $1.99 down the street from the house.:biggrin:
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Right about spring/fall, I misspoke about Winter. Regarding 6-9 months you are perhaps speaking from a contractor's perspective and/or finalizing the work scope. Owner planning begins 2-3 years in advance, procurement alone can easily consume 6-9 months on larger replacement items. I've worked on detailed engineered of quite a few units 2-3 years in advance of a T/A.

Yep, it's the worst unit that could have gone down, and it was recently upgraded in 2012 to handle the discounted Canadian crude. Further making the possibility that it was purposely sabotaged to help their competitor's more ludicrous.

Yes, I was speaking about finalizing the work scope and determining contractor manpower requirements for a T/A. Our engineers work with client engineers on equipment revamps and this can begin 2 to 3 years before the actual T/A where the work is performed.
 
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