Shareholders?
You mean the guys that just lost 10% of the value of their shares yesterday?
Shareholders?Would they need a buyer? Can't they just do some sort of share split, and leave Intel shareholders with a mix of shares in the two separate companies? (Proportional to the relative value of the two entities at the time of the split.)
I pointed out to people who thought the $1 billion "pipeline", then $2 billion Gaudi "pipeline" were real, that the pipeline was a complete BS. Basically a lie, except, Intel can claim "pipeline" is whatever they say "pipeline" is. It is meaningless.
It was pure BS, and now we have evidence.
Ben Reitzes
Yeah, thanks. Can we just double-click also on Gaudi, $500 million in the back-half of the year. I think you previously talked about a couple of billion in the pipeline. What does that say about your yield to revenue on an annualized basis with AI? And is there an update on the pipeline and your confidence there heading into 2025 on the accelerator front?
David Zinsner
Yeah. Thanks, Ben, and obviously, pipeline converting into revenue, revenue is much more meaningful. And as you said, greater than $500 million for the year, and that's obviously quarter-on-quarter accelerating rapidly, which also gives a great indication for the business in '25 as well. At our Vision event, we had over 20 customers publicly describing their embrace of Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3. And I was super pleased to see the breadth of those customers. It was CSPs like NAVER and Ola and IBM Cloud. It was ISVs like Seekr, right, coming on-board. But maybe most importantly, enterprise customers. And ultimately, GenAI training, okay, creating models, but enterprises are going to use models and that's where our TCO benefits, the ability for us to action customers' data in their enterprise environment is so powerful and customers like Bosch were coming forward and Roche to be able to demonstrate the true benefits of Gaudi and Xeon plus Gaudi. The roadmap is in good shape.
Now we have a leadership process technology back on American soil for the first time in a decade. This is really exciting.
Joseph Moore
Yeah, I do. Thank you. On the foundry webinar, you had sort of talked about Intel 3 volume being kind of more of an inflection next year. Does that mean that within server that these Intel 3 products are sort of get to volume crossover kind of some point next year or could we see, obviously, the leadership you just talked about is important, what's kind of keeping you from getting those products ramping in the second-half?
Patrick Gelsinger
Yeah, Joe, thank you. And servers always just take a while to ramp. Customers bring them in, right, they qualify them, they test them, because they're generally putting these things at-scale. So there's just an adoption cycle for server products. And the numbers that I'm holding my team accountable for are some of the most aggressive volume ramps that we've ever achieved on server products. So we're driving them very hard. That said, in terms of the total wafer volume this year, right, it's dominated by Intel 7. And the Intel 4 and 3 wafer volumes become much more prominent next year and that's what I was communicating on the webinar. But as we go through the year, you're going to start to see the wafer ASPs pick-up as a result of Intel 4, 3 ramping at much better ASP points, better margins associated with those and they'll become much more prominent in the foundry P&L next year. But those -- these are production ramps that are already underway on Intel 3. The Intel 4 ramp already underway. We began that second-half of last year. So these wafer ramps are underway with volume productions, volume products that we're bringing to the marketplace, very confident in our ability. And then, of course, 18A as we deliver the PDK for that in Q2, the 1.0 PDK and we'll begin the volume ramps on Clearwater Forest and Panther Lake in the first half of next year for those products coming out. So we feel very comfortable with that overall picture that we've laid out. So thank you, Joe.
Vivek Arya
Yes. Thank you. Maybe one for Dave on the potential operating loss kind of how do we model that for the foundry business? So let's say, if I exclude the 2 billion in depreciation headwind, which I'm assuming is almost all going to your foundry business, what is the right way, Dave, to think about foundry operating income or loss this year? And how much of external foundry revenue are you expecting this year? Thank you.
David Zinsner
Yeah, good question. The operating losses will pick up. We roughly were at like 2, 4-ish in the first-quarter. It will pick-up in the second-quarter given the start-up costs are increasing. And I would say be roughly in that range for the remainder of the year. And then what I said before is we see that improving then going into '25. And we -- I think Pat has given me the order, he wants to see every quarter some improvement in the operating loss ultimately to get to breakeven midway through the point between now and in 2030 and I think that is very achievable. I'm sorry, Vivek, what was the second question? Did we lose him?
John Pitzer
Vivek, are you still on?
Operator
No, we've moved on.
David Zinsner
Okay.
John Pitzer
Why don't we go to the next caller, Jonathan?
Patrick Gelsinger
Yeah. Thanks, Matt. And largely those decisions are made when the product decisions are made. So there's limited flexibility to move them around. And if you pick a process node for a certain tile, generally, that's the process node that it's on. So there's limited flexibility there. And many of those decisions, as we've highlighted before, Matt, were literally made years ago, right, and those choices were made. That said, we see the peak of our external tiles being this year and next year. And then the roadmap and the movement of those coming back begins to quite accelerate even starting late next year.
When are ASP going to wake up ? I mean Intel servers are the pits, and thats before Turin comes out. And desktops, half are now off the market, and the other half, have to have a bios fix before they burn up or are unstable, and laptops are a wash, even in the best case scenario. People are losing their investments !, 10% in one day ?
This amount to 1.25 x 0.87 = 8.75% higher revenue, yet this doesnt appear in the DCAI published numbers, wether that s in reference to previous quarter or to Q1 2023.ASP for servers was up 25%, but volume was down 13%. So they are selling less chips, but as they've moved to SPR, they are selling more cores per CPU and ASP is going up.
This amount to 1.25 x 0.87 = 8.75% higher revenue, yet this doesnt appear in the DCAI published numbers, wether that s in reference to previous quarter or to Q1 2023.
Got to read through the earnings call. Still just mostly fluff speech but a couple of tidbits.
There was a question and (half) answer about this in the call. Basically the pipeline as they are referring to it is just what they have deemed as the potential sales target based upon their take on customer interest.
Note than Zinsner never touched the annualized revenue for AI question, or update on a "pipeline" number, or confidence level.
Well, I listened to it start to finish.
Some people here were comparing the Intel "pipeline", which Intel said was $2 billion with AMD revenue guidance, which at one point was also $2 billion, and concluded from that that Intel and AMD were about even.
Which prompted me to point out that pipeline is a BS number that can mean anything.
As far as revenue projection on the AMD side, this is assumed to be orders. But in any case, it is revenue for a specific period of time, while pipeline can mean a decade in Gelsinger's head.
"Pipeline" is also mentioned when Intel is BSing about fab revenue. For example, Microsoft may have engaged Intel foundry about some chips, and Intel blew it up into (no less than) a $15 billion "pipeline"
Y/Y it s 3.44% higher revenue according to their slide, that s still not 8.75%, guess that they dont even notice the discrepancies, they just throw convenient numbers to make things looking good, now since they include AI in DC the number things are even more discutable, although AI related sales are surely anecdotical at this point.
This amount to 1.25 x 0.87 = 8.75% higher revenue, yet this doesnt appear in the DCAI published numbers, wether that s in reference to previous quarter or to Q1 2023.
For the fab side, Intel says that they have $15B in "lifetime deal value." Still unclear what that means exactly though (total committed deal value? Sales projections? For how long is this lifetime counted?).
Let me ask you this. When you were in middle/high school, were there several guys that 1) lied about everything, 2) bullied everybody to get their way and 3) had the teachers believe everything they said, so no one could take them down a peg ??? Does this sound like some company you know ? Does that make you angry at that company ? Not to mention, while producing inferior products, they are rewarded with the majority of computer chip business ? Is that fair ???This has to be the most negative thread I’ve ever seen here. I’ve read through the entire thing and basically the only info I’ve gotten is that a bunch of people really hate Intel.
Actual cliff notes of new info from listening to earnings call.
Overall not a great earnings report, not because Q1 numbers were necessarily bad but rather forward looking prospects for Q2 became more grim than expected.
- Intel is packaging limited at the moment for client and it is eating into Q2/Q3 revenue.
- SRF is hitting PRQ.
- Gaudi 3 has $500M in orders for H2.
- 18A PDK 1.0 is going to be available this quarter.
- Additional 18A customer from defense industry (meh).
- X86 Datacenter sales up by a tiny amount with Intel proclaiming they’ve stopped market share loss and gained a tiny amount back (dubious claim).
I don’t view it that way. When your baseline assumption is that every company is going to act ruthlessly in pursuit of their best interests, then you’re almost never annoyed or disappointed. Companies that have a lot of vocal critics on the internet like Intel, Microsoft, Nvidia & Apple don’t bother me at all. Honestly, the companies that are viewed favorably on the internet such as AMD I view as weak/feckless considering how poorly they’ve been able to take advantage of their current market position.Let me ask you this. When you were in middle/high school, were there several guys that 1) lied about everything, 2) bullied everybody to get their way and 3) had the teachers believe everything they said, so no one could take them down a peg ??? Does this sound like some company you know ? Does that make you angry at that company ? Not to mention, while producing inferior products, they are rewarded with the majority of computer chip business ? Is that fair ???
Thats your answer.
But doing what they have done for 20 years and getting caught by the courts and found guilty has not really let up.I don’t view it that way. When your baseline assumption is that every company is going to act ruthlessly in pursuit of their best interests, then you’re almost never annoyed or disappointed. Companies that have a lot of vocal critics on the internet like Intel, Microsoft, Nvidia & Apple don’t bother me at all. Honestly, the companies that are viewed favorably on the internet such as AMD I view as weak/feckless considering how poorly they’ve been able to take advantage of their current market position.
I don’t really see anything Intel has done in the past few years as anything like what you’re describing either. Selling products for cheap to keep market share isn’t dishonest.
You werent here back in 1999 when Intel threatened all MB makers to cut chipsets deliveries if they dared releasing MBs for the newly and best performer Athlon, a firm like Abit who was a main player even stated publicly that they wouldnt release any AMD MB, only 2 insinificant firms at the time, MSI and FIC, released a MB, and Asus released one only 6 months later with no brand displayed and sold in a white anonymous box.I don’t view it that way. When your baseline assumption is that every company is going to act ruthlessly in pursuit of their best interests, then you’re almost never annoyed or disappointed. Companies that have a lot of vocal critics on the internet like Intel, Microsoft, Nvidia & Apple don’t bother me at all. Honestly, the companies that are viewed favorably on the internet such as AMD I view as weak/feckless considering how poorly they’ve been able to take advantage of their current market position.
I don’t really see anything Intel has done in the past few years as anything like what you’re describing either. Selling products for cheap to keep market share isn’t dishonest.
That was 20 years ago.You werent here back in 1999 when Intel threatened all MB makers to cut chipsets deliveries if they dared releasing MBs for the newly and best performer Athlon, a firm like Abit who was a main player even stated publicly that they wouldnt release any AMD MB, only 2 insinificant firms at the time, MSI and FIC, released a MB, and Asus released one only 6 months later with no brand displayed and sold in a white anonymous box.
That s now more than 2 decades that Intel is relying on coercitive and bribe tricks, they spent billions circa 2003-2006 for bribes all while threatening everybody if they manufactured Opteron based servers, to give an idea they went as down in the market as bribing retailers back in 2001-2002, this was confirmed to me by a local retailer.
You didnt answer, how is it that currently AMD chips account for only 3% in Dell laptops while they are over 20% in Lenovo, HP, Asus laptops..?.That was 20 years ago.
I don't see it being relevant today. If you're claiming that Intel is still doing this (they're not), then that'd be a real indictment on how weak AMD's executive leadership is.
So, AMD's leadership is weak, since they allow Intel to pull all these "tricks". I will quit now, as I don't want this to degrade into a political debate, but you asked a question and I tried to answer it, and you keep defending the "bully" in this situation, so fine. I hope you all get what you deserve. (you and Intel)That was 20 years ago.
I don't see it being relevant today. If you're claiming that Intel is still doing this (they're not), then that'd be a real indictment on how weak AMD's executive leadership is.
Probably because Dell receives better pricing and favored treatment due to an extremely close relationship with Intel.You didnt answer, how is it that currently AMD chips account for only 3% in Dell laptops while they are over 20% in Lenovo, HP, Asus laptops..?.
What motivate Dell to use Intel s inferior products at this 97% rate, you think that it s for their consumers interest.?.
Probably because Dell receives better pricing and favored treatment due to an extremely close relationship with Intel.
Didn't stop them from making Very Expensive hamoa designs.Probably because Dell receives better pricing and favored treatment due to an extremely close relationship with Intel.