News Intel 2Q24 Financial Results

[itsmydamnation]

But when developpement of the AL-31 was started the USSR was a dictatorship or so, so the contradiction of your own sayings is contained in your very post.

Beside the Soviet Union never had that quantity of high level enginers that is
available in China, we re talking at least 10x the head count.

no it wasn't , maybe you should review your political systems and history......

for all these high level engineers they have been super reliant on Russian soviet engines even to today

 

[Abwx]

no it wasn't , maybe you should review your political systems and history......

for all these high level engineers they have been super reliant on Russian soviet engines even to today

But even the US had to rely recently on russian rocket engines that date back from the soviet era, it s just that there are some critical technologies that cant be copied overnight, but as far as we re talking of lithography they will master the technology in way less time, after all ASML wasnt the leader back in the 90s, it was Nikon and no one would had expected the japanese to lose their leadership.

ASML became leader because they relied on the tecnology pool of the whole western world, and China is just as big and even bigger than the west.

 

[moinmoin]

ASML became leader because they relied on the tecnology pool of the whole western world

They not only relied on it, they got financial and knowledge investment by all the big players at the time because they all knew what a big hurdle EUV is going to be. Intel, TSMC and Samsung all invested into ASML as a result. China on the other hand is isolated in that industry.

 

[Abwx]

They not only relied on it, they got financial and knowledge investment by all the big players at the time because they all knew what a big hurdle EUV is going to be. Intel, TSMC and Samsung all invested into ASML as a result. China on the other hand is isolated in that industry.

All those firms just poured money on ASML, and money is the last thing lacking in China, and as said given that the enginering workforce is way cheaper each $ invested will have bigger ROI on the long term, beside the money provided by those firms is just pocket money in comparison of China that has trillons of $ available on short notice.

Remember that in the past Japan overtook the electronic industry in a matter of 15 years and in 1985 they controled 85% of the worldwide RAM market while having more advanced processes since in 1986 they were the only ones capable of producing 1Mb chips.

You are certainly not aware that the US electronic industry was saved of a total collapse by the theft imposed by the Reagan adminisration that forced the japanese firms to give for free their technology to US firms, among others to Motorola, Intel, Texas Instrument and many others, such a theft would be totaly illegal nowadays and condemned by the WTO on day one.

So really, so much for the western so called advanced industry and China allegedly stealing their technology that they once stole from the japanese.

 

[moinmoin]

China is far away from the structured methodical approach Japan took up to the 1980s. Also the 1980s were technologically far less complex than current times. China has manpower and money, but that won't suffice, especially not on short term. You claiming otherwise doesn't make a difference.

 

[Abwx]

China is far away from the structured methodical approach Japan took up to the 1980s. Also the 1980s were technologically far less complex than current times. China has manpower and money, but that won't suffice, especially not on short term. You claiming otherwise doesn't make a difference.

I m aware of the state of the semiconductor technology at the time, in 1965 Japan was no match for US firms and was light years behind, in 1970 they were still way late, they started their rising around 1974-75 and five years later they were leader.

Actually it took them less than a decade to overlap the US and european industries, not only for semiconductors but also for reliable cars, advanced metallurgy, petrochemicals and even such things as excavators since they revolutioned this industry by introducing low pressure hydraulic pumps (Hitachi..) that definitly got rid of insoluble leaks, all while mastering nuclear energy, and that was a 120M people country, now think about a 1.4bn one that has the same ambitions with all necessary $$ available.

 

[Saylick]

Dang, was on Reddit and I stumbled on this thread. Kinda crazy reading it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/intel/comments/1eyny65/any_other_intel_employees_here_how_are_yall

 

[DrMrLordX]

China has manpower

For now . . . but that's changing, and not in their favor.

 

[Doug S]

For now . . . but that's changing, and not in their favor.

True, but that's the case with just about all developed countries. They will feel the pinch more though, because the one child policy was in place long enough that being an "only child" is the norm, so even now that it has been lifted most young couples only want to have one child because that's how they grew up, and how their parents grew up.

China will still beat the US in raw numbers of young people entering the workforce, since even with a lower birthrate they have a lot more couples of child bearing age. What they need is enough jobs for them. The youth unemployment rate is still over 15% even after they changed the way it is measured! I haven't seen any breakdowns between those with college degrees and without, those living in urban or rural settings, etc. so it isn't clear where it is affecting them the most.

 

[DavidC1]

More Intel troubles:

High-tech industry legend leaves Intel board — Intel's stock dropped 6% since the announcement

Needs to 'reprioritize various commitments.'

www.tomshardware.com

Lip-Bu Tan, a former CEO and the current executive chairman of Cadence, a leading supplier of electronic design automation tools and IP, joined Intel's board of directors in 2022 after the company announced its IDM 2.0 efforts to become a significant contract maker of semiconductors.

Stock dropped 6% on the news, indicating the continued loss of confidence on the company to execute.

I'm old enough to remember the pre-Ryzen days, when people said similar things about AMD. "Death spiral", "not enough revenue to fund a good design", etc.

AMD had a comparatively very low overhead cost, and their company structure is better. Intel had been plagued with internal politics for decades, have a massive amount of debt, and high overhead too.

At this point only the E core team and design is salvageble. But if they end up in a different company they'll have a hard time getting adjusted to culture and different way of doing things.

Again, the amount is completely meaningless if the knowledge isn't there.

It's the OTHER way around. Knowledge doesn't come from thin air. It comes from the people.

From a big picture perspective @Abwx isn't wrong. You need absolute population before certain technologies can be developed because there are minimum overhead that has to be taken into account to sustain it. Semiconductors and computers are at the absolute peak of it. You need everything else - Stable culture(family, morals), safe environment(laws and justice system), ability to pursue ones desires without extreme regulations, good food, water, and electricity supply.

The argument you should be making is that China arguably doesn't have the regulations part right, thus innovation will be stifled. US is more likely to lose to China due to them screwing themselves over China doing better.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Tan probably got an inside look on what Intel is up against and decided that his reputation is better served by distancing himself from this sinking ship.

 

[Doug S]

More Intel troubles:

High-tech industry legend leaves Intel board — Intel's stock dropped 6% since the announcement

Needs to 'reprioritize various commitments.'

www.tomshardware.com

Stock dropped 6% on the news, indicating the continued loss of confidence on the company to execute.

Tom's Hardware just shows how clueless they are (or the agenda they're trying to push) with their ridiculous headline claiming yesterday's stock drop had anything to do with a board member leaving!

I guess he must have been pretty important, because his departure also caused Tesla to fall by 5%, Nvidia by 4%, and Microsoft by 2%!

Or maybe yesterday was just a down day across the board, and trying to make that fit their narrative about Intel just makes them look foolish and ill informed about how the stock market works. Wall Street doesn't care about a board member leaving, unless that board member leaving will make a difference in the operation of the business (i.e. if it was someone like Nelson Peltz)

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Dang, was on Reddit and I stumbled on this thread. Kinda crazy reading it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/intel/comments/1eyny65/any_other_intel_employees_here_how_are_yall

The brain drain continues. Some of them saying all the best sr. engineers are looking to bail.

Lots of comments like this one - "Yeah I manage a crew of about 25 in Hillsboro. Moral and motivation is low."

"I’m at the Chandler site. Doing the bare minimum until I find another job. I’m done with this company. Everyone else in my team is on the same boat."

 

[MangoX]

Holy shit. Reading those comments makes me feel sad. I really hope Intel can turn things around. We can't have AMD the only one dominating. Look at Radeon vs Nvidia to see how that's going along.

I was once in a similar situation where we knew the company was going down. It was a company where we re-manufactured brake calipers. The clients decided it was "better" to buy new calipers from China where they're mass produced and we selling them for the same price we were selling ours. Work was really slowing down and our foreman had a hard time giving us work. My foreman literally told us to do the bare minimum, and just try to look busy in case the Director walked around. Slowly our hours would get cut, and we closed for one day a week, then two. Next thing you know, I got laid off, as well as many others.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Tom's Hardware just shows how clueless they are (or the agenda they're trying to push) with their ridiculous headline claiming yesterday's stock drop had anything to do with a board member leaving!

Read between the lines. Reason for leaving "Reprioritize various commitments"??? That sounds like the same crap as "leaving for personal reasons" for Jim Keller. They tried too hard to explain away the reason for the board member leaving which makes the whole thing suspicious.

 

[moinmoin]

True, but that's the case with just about all developed countries. They will feel the pinch more though, because the one child policy was in place long enough that being an "only child" is the norm, so even now that it has been lifted most young couples only want to have one child because that's how they grew up, and how their parents grew up.

China will still beat the US in raw numbers of young people entering the workforce, since even with a lower birthrate they have a lot more couples of child bearing age. What they need is enough jobs for them. The youth unemployment rate is still over 15% even after they changed the way it is measured! I haven't seen any breakdowns between those with college degrees and without, those living in urban or rural settings, etc. so it isn't clear where it is affecting them the most.

I wanted to mention China's high youth unemployment rate as a response, but you mentioned it yourself already. China is in a real pickle in that they have a very well educated youth but do far too little to ensure that they then get employed. The real rate likely is much higher, in June 2023 it was 21.3% and afterwards they just stopped reporting the numbers for half a year since it was deemed to lead to too much negative headlines. As you said they changed the way it's measured, and after going from 14.9% in December 2023 down to 13.2% in June 2024 it's up to 17.1% again after this year's graduations. At least the public comments by party and politics seem completely out of touch with the youth population.

It's the OTHER way around. Knowledge doesn't come from thin air. It comes from the people.

People's knowledge doesn't come from thin air either though. Knowledge is always built up from a base, from access to existing knowledge. China is in process of losing that access. China at the same time is doing too little for its young working population to actually be able to work, work in areas and jobs befitting its education, and as such expand its knowledge on its own (see above answer on youth unemployment).

 

[DAPUNISHER]

At least the public comments by party and politics seem completely out of touch with the youth population.

I remember reading in article a couple years back about Bai Lan - let it rot. Intel has much bigger fish to fry than worrying about China catching up in some indeterminant number of years.

 

[DavidC1]

The brain drain continues. Some of them saying all the best sr. engineers are looking to bail.

The voluntary severance package idea is stupid. So the smart ones who see the writing on the wall will leave, and the rest will stay.

Another stupid thing modern western companies do is fire older experienced people. You need the young ones for the ideas and the creativity but you need the older ones to guide them away from making unrealistic decisions. There's always a time factor involved in doing actual good work. Nothing can substitute it.

 

[Saylick]

Take with a big grain of salt:

 

[IEC]

It's not good for Intel if datacenter type environments are openly discussing "solvency risk"... for the sake of competition, I hope Intel succeeds to keep AMD honest.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Things are VERY, VERY bad for Intel right now. They gotta earn back some much needed trust with Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake and then maybe in five years' time, they could have some corporate AMD customers looking at their products for upgrades. Saying Intel is in a precarious position right now is actually an understatement.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

It's not good for Intel if datacenter type environments are openly discussing "solvency risk"... for the sake of competition, I hope Intel succeeds to keep AMD honest.

If you had told me in mid 2021 that this would be something people are saying in late 2024 I'd have never believed it. It happened so fast. I recall many posts around the web just a couple years ago, talking about how deep Intel's pockets were, and how they could keep throwing money at dGPUs until they were successful in the segment.

The way the employees are being treated is going to have severe consequences. Malicious compliance, apathy, worry about employment, not a winning combo.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If you had told me in mid 2021 that this would be something people are saying in late 2024 I'd have never believed it. It happened so fast.

Why not? People should have started worrying when rumours were circulating that Intel would have to take wafers from TSMC in volume.

@Saylick

Kinda funny that the Intel guy cited in the video is recommending EPYC over Xeon for reasons not just of performance but stability. What stability problems are people having with Emerald Rapids? Or is this more a reference to W680 systems with Raptor Lake in them?

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Why not? People should have started worrying when rumours were circulating that Intel would have to take wafers from TSMC in volume.

Oh noes! there are rumors! start shorting that stock bois! GTFO. 🤣 I also don't recall anyone predicting Intel would be in this position when they were raking in the money back in 2021.

 

[cebri1]

Take with a big grain of salt:

Intel is saved then.