News Intel 2Q24 Financial Results

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DAPUNISHER

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Seriously, It all happened so fast even push ups Pat was caught flat footed. Went to killing it during the pandemic years to a collapse in a hot second.
 

Mahboi

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Apr 4, 2024
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Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.
There can be a lot of noise and voluntary confusion entertained by finance sharks. The more turmoil Pat is in, the easier it is for them to negotiate a dismantling of Intel.
The real cause for concern is the absurdly bad cashflow. But it's not like the company isn't viable anymore. If he can present a sound enough plan, Intel's still a Leviathan. The question is can he convince anyone through all this noise?
 

DavidC1

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Intel Brags of $152 Billion in Stock Buybacks Over Last 35 Years.​


Is it Gelsinger's fault or the BoD? Gelsinger said he wasn't able to cut dividends and stock buybacks as quickly as he'd liked. It should have been cut IMMEDIATELY in 2021 soon as he was CEO.

I thought they gave him more control?

This is why mega corporations fail. Even if the CEO is actually capable, one hand is tied behind his back. AMD's meteoric rise was because they didn't have the bureaucratic nonsense Intel had(and still does).

The only way to change this completely is for it to completely break. And I fear this will break the company permanently too.
 

Mahboi

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That said, the one severe worry I'd have is in this chart:

And in the statement the latest MLID guest said.
Basically, it seems the industry has effectively already given up on Intel as the main purveyor of server chips.
This chart is mostly butt, since it shows a ridiculously huge wave of Nvidia off the AI hype bubble.
But when the bubble will pop, what will we see? We will see an Intel that fell from 80% of server expenses to 10%. And an AMD that fell from 10% to 10%.
AMD is effectively holding the NV pressure perfectly. Intel is sinking. Badly. When the pressure will go away and expenditure pie will return to somewhat sound cuts, then who will be left with a tiny slice?
 
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DavidC1

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Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.
Look, the Raptorlake debacle is enough to break them.

Why?

They still have 80/20 marketshare, the number that has never been breached. Breaking trust is how you break it. And when the shift happens it'll be impossible to stop.

Remember they are propped up solely by client revenue. 80% or so of their revenue? When that collapses, everything will go away very quickly. It won't matter if Intel has better product. That didn't make AMD get great client share. What do you think the above will do to their server confidence?
 

Mahboi

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Look, the Raptorlake debacle is enough to break them.

Why?

They still have 80/20 marketshare, the number that has never been breached. Breaking trust is how you break it. And when the shift happens it'll be impossible to stop.

Remember they are propped up solely by client revenue. 80% or so of their revenue? When that collapses, everything will go away very quickly. It won't matter if Intel has better product. That didn't make AMD get great client share.
Ridiculous, you're overreacting.
Enterprises are the reason Intel still has 80/20, and those take forever to move. All it takes is for Intel to show that ARL holds water and it'll get swept under the bridge like so many other stories. You think SPECTRE or MELTDOWN or however many things before broke them?
Also those sharks are hunting now, in a year it'll be a different story. And it's not like Pat is quietly waiting with his hands in his pockets for the sharks to eat him, he's fighting tooth and nail clearly.
Everything can still happen.
 
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jpiniero

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Oct 1, 2010
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That said, the one severe worry I'd have is in this chart:

Yeah. That's why I've been saying that they need to spin off the fabs because they simply can't afford it. The problem is that the Board doesn't want to do that. And so what's likely to happen is that the entire company will go under.
 

Mahboi

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They can't spin off the Fabs, we've mentioned this several times.
Intel was never designed with a clean break between Lab and Fab. The Fab has hard requirements for people in the Labs.
If they had two years maybe.
 
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DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
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Private equity AKA vulture capitalism already has their clutches in Intel, good luck with that.
And it's not like Pat is quietly waiting with his hands in his pockets for the sharks to eat him,
No, he is quoting bible verses on social media and doing push ups on stage. r/whatcouldpossiblygowrong? 🤣
 

Mahboi

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No, he is quoting bible verses on social media and doing push ups on stage. r/whatcouldpossiblygowrong? 🤣
Calling Morgan Stanley & co to cook the books is not a dumb move, unless they somehow want to see Intel dismantled. Which realistically is a very bad idea, some low IQ vulture stuff.
He's done the moves that needed to be done:
- show that he has plans
- cook the books to prove that his plans are financially viable
- feed some limbs of Intel out to save the trunk

If he can show that they have the tools to walk out of their mice trap within 2 years, it's bingo...but does he?
That Intel 3 node and Skymont better be stellar.
 

DavidC1

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Ridiculous, you're overreacting.
Am I? Really?
Those numbers add up to Intel holding 78% of the market and AMD with 13% of the market share. That leaves just 9% of the market, which it is assumed belongs to Apple, Qualcomm, Arm, and MediaTek.
-Weakest macroeconomy with trillions of debt
-$46 billion in debt
-Uncompetitive products
-Massive investment in foundry
-Shedding of products with potential. Falcon Shores is just GPU now? What's the point? CPU/GPU was always where it was at. AMD reported fastest growth of a product line in history. $1 billion/quarter just due to MI300X. They missed the boat, and badly. How could Pat allow this?
-Raptorlake fiasco.*

*This is bigger than many of you realize. Intel during Alder/Raptor had a silver lining, and that was Desktops. Look back at revenue numbers between Intel/AMD. Intel took desktop share. Now Raptorlake is being at the spotlight for issues. The product line that was the silver lining is the core of the problem.
 

linkgoron

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Mar 9, 2005
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That said, the one severe worry I'd have is in this chart:

And in the statement the latest MLID guest said.
Basically, it seems the industry has effectively already given up on Intel as the main purveyor of server chips.
The chart is pretty misleading, because it doesn't mean that less money is flowing into Intel.

Intel Brags of $152 Billion in Stock Buybacks Over Last 35 Years.​


Is it Gelsinger's fault or the BoD? Gelsinger said he wasn't able to cut dividends and stock buybacks as quickly as he'd liked. It should have been cut IMMEDIATELY in 2021 soon as he was CEO.

I thought they gave him more control?

This is why mega corporations fail. Even if the CEO is actually capable, one hand is tied behind his back.
Is there any evidence that Gelsinger is actually a capable CEO?
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
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Is there any evidence that Gelsinger is actually a capable CEO?
Every day I believe less and less of it.

They missed all the critical junctures:
-That the compute demand will crash after the artificial demand is over
-Falcon shores CPU/GPU into just GPU
-Losing of 18A wins, meaning there were some shady things going on that inflated PPA numbers. Why did Qualcomm and Softbank pull out?
-18A going from 15% + 10% to just 15% over Intel 3
 

Mahboi

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Am I? Really?
Very much so.
-Weakest macroeconomy with trillions of debt
-$46 billion in debt
Irrelevant, the entire world is a giant ball of debt. Actually the fact that they have actual Fabs is still putting them ahead of most of the "my service is debt and I sell more of it" companies.
-Uncompetitive products
-Massive investment in foundry
It's a lot more subtle than that.
Intel still commands huge volume and TSMC literally cannot fulfill all orders, people have to auction for wafers.
You can't just say "Intel node bad" and suddenly the market abandons Intel. They're here for good or ill.

Also, the "products" that are uncompetitive are now 2 years old (no, no, I don't consider 14th gen a real gen) and on a really dated node. The real problem is how expensive Intel 7 and 4 are, with 3 seemingly being the first reasonable node in an eternity. If they can sell some volume on 3, with much lower costs than what the others were, they could start renewing their profits a bit.

Also, the P cores being godawful is one thing, but the E cores seem to be really rising. It's not a black or white "uncompetitive products". They have options. A lot of them, although their main workhorse being frankly terrible is a very painful situation to be in.
-Shedding of products with potential. Falcon Shores is just GPU now? What's the point? CPU/GPU was always where it was at. AMD reported fastest growth of a product line in history. $1 billion/quarter just due to MI300X. They missed the boat, and badly. How could Pat allow this?
The problems run deep. But I'll be honest I never expected anything out of the mixed stuff when the GPU side alone was just not mature. I can't even remember what Falcon Shores was meant to be, after that ridiculous Raja chip that had a zillion chiplets and no clients, I lost interest.
-Raptorlake fiasco.*

*This is bigger than many of you realize. Intel during Alder/Raptor had a silver lining, and that was Desktops. Look back at revenue numbers between Intel/AMD. Intel took desktop share. Now Raptorlake is being at the spotlight for issues. The product line that was the silver lining is the core of the problem.
We'll see. Impact can be huge or very mitigated. It's all about the marketers and the next gen product. And AMD sucks real bad at marketing.
 
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Mahboi

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The chart is pretty misleading, because it doesn't mean that less money is flowing into Intel.
Wut? They went from 80% DC marketshare to 10% and you think that it "doesn't mean that less money is going in"???
Is there any evidence that Gelsinger is actually a capable CEO?
He is technically competent, which is what Intel lacked for so long. But I think the fundamental problem is in the culture. Intel held on to that image of being the top of the top, everyone else, AMD was just a noisy fly, Nvidia was that small company doing GPUs for Gamers, while they held 120000+ employees and NV/AMD were 1/10th of that.

The belief that "we are the best anyway, nothing can really touch us" seems deeply ingrained, and that complacency literally kills.
Doesn't help that apparently a ton of competent engineers fled Intel while most of those who came in were welcome and led by people whose main quality was saying that they were in control and that the best thing to do was just obey. A typical case of streaming out competent people and leaving the chaff in control.

Gelsinger should've gone in with a bazooka and fired a ton of people early, but in a giant corpo, it's very hard to do, and he may have believed for too long that it wasn't possible to shake the house and get results. And maybe it isn't, and Intel will choke on itself.
 

DavidC1

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Dec 29, 2023
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The belief that "we are the best anyway, nothing can really touch us" seems deeply ingrained, and that complacency literally kills.
Doesn't help that apparently a ton of competent engineers fled Intel while most of those who came in were welcome and led by people whose main quality was saying that they were in control and that the best thing to do was just obey. A typical case of streaming out competent people and leaving the chaff in control.
This is the problem. Intel was the driver for newest memory standards. They supported the fastest speeds, and were the first to adopt newest RAM versions. Their chipsets had the fastest memory controllers too. They had top tier SRAM in density and latency.

They don't have that now. The "puny" AMD often support faster ones than Intel's.

Because the top talent left, and are at ARM(some at AMD of course). But losing talent doesn't show effect right away. It takes time. There's always a TIME component. So the short-term thinkers do not see this. "Fire those engineers, we save $250,000 a year!"
 

jdubs03

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Oct 1, 2013
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I’m curious, is there any documentation or visualization showing the flow of personnel from Intel to its competitors? And vice versa.
 

Josh128

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At least the stock is up on the "rumor". I was betting on Pat to turn it around, but what that turn around looks like remains to be seen.

They are attempting to use their latest node, 3nm, to break back into the data center/server space. The all E-core offerings are decent in perf/w, and certainly look better than their 10nm stuff, but still not beating (or matching) Bergamo in perf/w overall. If their 3nm is REALLY what 3nm should be, they should be comfortably ahead. We'll see what their Granite Rapids brings with its Redwood Cove P cores on 3nm, those cores were designed for 4nm/3nm from the start, I expect a lot better perf/w than the Raptor Cove SPR and EMR.
 
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DavidC1

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I do not think it's just engineers being fired. It's management decisions that cause the top engineers to lose vision in the company which is more than money. At some point in your career, money is secondary. If you hate your job then no amount will really matter.
He is technically competent, which is what Intel lacked for so long. But I think the fundamental problem is in the culture.
For a simpler company like AMD back in the days having an "Engineer CEO" might be beneficial. Maybe he's a good engineer but CEO of Intel corporation, not so much.
 

DAPUNISHER

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At least the stock is up on the "rumor". I was betting on Pat to turn it around, but what that turn around looks like remains to be seen.

They are attempting to use their latest node, 3nm, to break back into the data center/server space. The all E-core offerings are decent in perf/w, and certainly look better than their 10nm stuff, but still not beating (or matching) Bergamo in perf/w overall. If their 3nm is REALLY what 3nm should be, they should be comfortably ahead. We'll see what their Granite Rapids brings with its Redwood Cove P cores on 3nm, those cores were designed for 4nm/3nm from the start, I expect a lot better perf/w than the Raptor Cove SPR and EMR.
If rumors are true, all of their best stuff is being produced by the company they are supposed to be competing with successfully. How the hell does that work long term when your vision is the foundries will save us? Which now partially belongs to private equity. IEEE types always miss the forest for all of the trees in the way. I have never seen anything like this. I am over here like -

 

linkgoron

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Wut? They went from 80% DC marketshare to 10% and you think that it "doesn't mean that less money is going in"???
It doesn't have to mean it if the total pie gets much bigger. Let's say last year Intel made 50 dollars and Nvidia 10 dollars, and this year Intel still makes 50 dollars but Nvidia makes 100. Intel had 83% last year, but this year they only have 33%, but they've made the same amount of money.

They probably do make less money going in, but it's difficult to gauge what the difference is by looking at percentages vs an exponentially growing company like Nvidia. Someone showed here that they went down 3% YoY in Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023 in DC, that's not remotely close to going down by 50% like they did in the chart you posted in the same time frame (going down from something like 20% to 10%).

Gelsinger should've gone in with a bazooka and fired a ton of people early, but in a giant corpo, it's very hard to do, and he may have believed for too long that it wasn't possible to shake the house and get results. And maybe it isn't, and Intel will choke on itself.
So, it doesn't sound like he's a competent CEO - at least not for a company like Intel. It's a hard job and he needed to do hard things, and he didn't do them (at least not on time).
 

DAPUNISHER

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So, it doesn't sound like he's a competent CEO - at least not for a company like Intel. It's a hard job and he needed to do hard things, and he didn't do them (at least not on time).
His vision was the foundries will save us, yet it appears the competition is producing all of their best stuff. If you are a stockholder, how does that sit with you?

This company has a CEO that thinks invisible magical friends will help them. And worse yet, takes solace in that. Push ups Pat is a failure, and they need to can him and find a Lisa Su before they end up on the scrap pile of history.

That was harsh. I will now entertain posts that convince me I am overly pessimistic.
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
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His vision was the foundries will save us, yet it appears the competition is producing all of their best stuff. If you are a stockholder, how does that sit with you?

This company has a CEO that thinks invisible magical friends will help them. And worse yet, takes solace in that. Push ups Pat is a failure, and they need to can him and find a Lisa Su before they end up on the scrap pile of history.

That was harsh. I will now entertain posts that convince me I am overly pessimistic.
Magical friends! YESSS 👻👻👻
 
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