News Intel 2Q24 Financial Results

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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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You really don't think Clear Water Forest is an interesting product with potential? Lunar Lake?

Clearwater looks like a decent product, a good Arm competitor.

BTW, what's up with rumors that Intel cancelled future E-Core based server product past Clearwater Forrest? Some rumors regarding the demise of the E-Cores and that development team.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,184
11,889
136
I will say that I think the execs are concerned that PE smells blood in the water and is angling to kill Intel for a quick buck. Which is causing the current panic moreso than their financial situation.
That's possible, though outside interests haven't got that kind of control over the company yet. They own a large chunk of a few fabs and that's it. If they can form a shareholder's coalition, however . . . or just buy them out while the share prices are low . . .

@controlflow

The biggest concerns with Clearwater Forest are:

1). Sierra Forest has little to no commercial availability. It's basically unobtanium at this point.
2). Word on the street is that Intel will kill mont-based Xeons after Clearwater Forest

Clearwater looks like a decent product, a good Arm competitor.

BTW, what's up with rumors that Intel cancelled future E-Core based server product past Clearwater Forrest? Some rumors regarding the demise of the E-Cores and that development team.

It's a rumour, and it has gained some traction. As to what's up with it or why, it's possible that Intel needs to trim the team(s) responsible for said products. It costs money to develop and deploy a Xeon. Sierra Forest likely hasn't paid for itself in terms of revenue. They probably didn't ship many units. Clearwater Forest would have to really turn the situation around, and if Intel doesn't plan on high volume shipping for that product either, then . . . cost reductions, yay.
 
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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
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865
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On the strategy front, I can't fault him. He couldn't let go of GPUs because that's the future and he would condemn Intel if he did anyway. CPUs were obviously the main goal to repair. Getting to a more financially viable node (heard somewhere that at some point an Intel node of equivalent performance to TSMC's was FIVE TIMES more expensive) was paramount since Intel's "Eternal N°1 Always Growing Never Weakening" position was getting battered since Zen 2.
On the "boss" front, it's more subtle. Perhaps he had good cause to try and avoid breakage. Perhaps sounding all the alarm bells in a company that had lost a lot of its engineers and goodwill and was getting diffed in salary returns by Nvidia or Apple and even AMD later on would've just caused all the remaining good people to leave the ship and for the rats to hold on to the seats. Perhaps he deeply underestimated the problems and just felt like the beast needed some tweaking and redirecting instead of a full blown revolution.
Whether it was weakness/meekness on his part, or underestimating the depth of the internal damage, whether it was Intel's size that turned it into a Holy Roman Empire of modern times with little lords that kept doing things their way and ignoring him, whether it was that he just couldn't do anything since the money river was already running dry and the cards had been dealt before his time and he could just preside over the slow crumbling, whether it was that every rat would've turned against him...I don't know, we'd need Intel insiders to tell us.

But I'm getting pretty sick of people going "Pat's the problem". Intel had a zillion problems. If anything, he tried fixing them. I would blame Krzanich 100 times before Pat. Even Bob Swan held the ship as well as he could and found someone to replace him that would fit better. If there's one thing I'd blame on Pat is that he held a monster under its reigns and treated it too kindly, if Intel was to die anyway, he should have roughed them up before they would just expire quietly. Seems that now it's getting out of his hands slowly.
This is my thoughts exactly. Pat could have been more aggressive with cuts, but Im sure he did what he thought was necessary at the time. If there is an emergency meeting, its possible another huge round of cuts will be announced. I still think Pat is the right guy for technical strategy, but I'd hope he has outside consultants looking for places to trim for him.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Intel has their own fabs. Even if it's older process tech than TSMC, it's theirs! They could've come up with a better plan to monetize them. Sold larger sized CPUs than AMD until they could catch up in process tech. Then AMD would've found it harder to compete with them, at least in MT throughput. Where AMD wouldn't have wanted to go higher than 20 cores max, Intel could've brought the hammer on AMD with up to 30 REAL cores! That's 60 threads, yo!

This is what I think killed Intel's desirability:

Stupid insistence on heterogeneous core processors, pretending that they were somehow going to take over the world overnight and AMD's larger cores would fall out of favor with the enthusiast crowd.

Cutting out AVX-512 just when it could have taken off with developers with AMD's AVX-512 support.

Maniacal insistence on high frequencies, power be damned.

Not taking AMD APUs seriously. What APU does Intel have? Absolutely NONE. There goes at least one million CPUs sold per quarter, mostly global sales in countries where GPUs are too expensive.

Utter lack of innovation. So much money spent on R&D and they couldn't put one interesting unique feature on their CPUs to differentiate them from AMD's??? Shame on you, Intel fellows!

High speed memory? Check. High speed storage a la Optane? Check. Arguably industry's lowest failure rate in SSDs? Check. Best in class consumer hardware video encoding/decoding engines? Check. eDRAM tech? Check. Unique packaging technologies portfolio? Check. Yet Intel squandered all of these advantages and let themselves rot to the core with complacency and poor execution due to zero sense of urgency.

And there's probably a dozen more reasons on why Intel lost their edge.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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but I'd hope he has outside consultants looking for places to trim for him.
Trust me. Those consultants will do more harm than good. Outsiders can never judge thousands of individuals in a workforce accurately to determine which ones are the most productive and crucial to the company's bottomline. This was supposed to be a critical function of HR but almost every company's HR dept manages to attract complete bozos who care nothing about improving the lives and productivity of the company's employees. They don't even try to understand what tasks each employee is assigned and if they are overworked or overburdened and instead just give complete control to the employees' managers to EFF UP the lives of hardworking employees.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,672
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I don't think there were many choices there.
Intel can't afford to lowball things either. Not when it was playing to stay competitive vs TSMC/AMD.
Intel has 4 large fabs IIRC - Oregon, Arizona, Ireland, Israel. It's not exactly low balling to convert them to EUV capacity. Enough capacity so that Intel would not have to go to TSMC. And maybe a little extra to start accepting outside customers.

It's almost as if it wasn't enough of a challenge: to escape death, and live. Gelsinger quadrupled the magnitude of the hurdle and set the goal to emerge as a world leading foundry.
 
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ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,124
1,597
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Clearwater looks like a decent product, a good Arm competitor.

BTW, what's up with rumors that Intel cancelled future E-Core based server product past Clearwater Forrest? Some rumors regarding the demise of the E-Cores and that development team.
Very disappointing if true. The E core team seems the only part of Intel right now that has their act together. Intel is in a viscous spiral right now of needing some home run product, but because of financial hardship is cutting so many projects that could actually be that home run. I never would have though it possible, but I think Intel is in serious danger as a company right now. At least AMD in the darkest Bulldozer days had the console revenue to keep them going. Intel doesn't even have that.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
26,389
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Very disappointing if true. The E core team seems the only part of Intel right now that has their act together. Intel is in a viscous spiral right now of needing some home run product, but because of financial hardship is cutting so many projects that could actually be that home run. I never would have though it possible, but I think Intel is in serious danger as a company right now. At least AMD in the darkest Bulldozer days had the console revenue to keep them going. Intel doesn't even have that.
I read that its not selling. And I can understand. If you wanted a server and you choices were a cut down features CPU that is efficient or another server that is just as efficient, but full featured (bergamo) which would you pick ?
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,672
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Very disappointing if true. The E core team seems the only part of Intel right now that has their act together. Intel is in a viscous spiral right now of needing some home run product, but because of financial hardship is cutting so many projects that could actually be that home run. I never would have though it possible, but I think Intel is in serious danger as a company right now. At least AMD in the darkest Bulldozer days had the console revenue to keep them going. Intel doesn't even have that.

The buzz word is AI, including server CPU based AI Inference. Unlike P-Core based products that have AVX-512 and AMX matrix operations, E-Core based products have neither.

In the meantime, AMD has AVX-512 even on the dense cores...

If E-Cores and E-Core based server products were indeed cancelled, this could be the contributing factor.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
2,888
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Intel has 4 large fabs IIRC - Oregon, Arizona, Ireland, Israel. It's not exactly low balling to convert them to EUV capacity. Enough capacity so that Intel would not have to go to TSMC. And maybe a little extra to start accepting outside customers.

It's almost as if it wasn't enough of a challenge: to escape death, and live. Gelsinger quadrupled the magnitude of the hurdle and set the goal to emerge as a world leading foundry.


It isn't clear from the news coming out of Intel, but my belief is that for a bit there Intel was considering whether to continue fabbing chips at all. That would explain the large capacity buys from TSMC and passing up on delivery of EUV scanners they had previously ordered. When Gelsinger came in he re-committed Intel to fabbing chips, but that required the scale of becoming a real foundry (not the laudhable halfhearted attempt a decade ago) and catching up with TSMC process-wise.

The problem with trying to do five processes in four years when you only have four fabs is that you're going to tie up a lot of that capacity in upgrades and preproduction activities before you're ready for mass production. Those nodes are all short lived - it isn't like there were a lot of products on Intel 4 or will be on Intel 3 and 20A - they are trying to skip through those as quickly as possible but tackling some new "learning" with each one (first EUV, then nanosheet, then BSPDN) That implies a continued need for external capacity until you get back to a more normal process pacing and are able to more effectively utilize your own fab buildings.

If they can keep their head above water long enough to get a fab or two in Ohio online then assuming they are able to deliver on their process roadmap they'll be fine from a foundry standpoint, and the customers will come simply due to the "made in the USA" (or for non US companies the not "all our eggs in one potential geopolitical hot spot") advantage.

Its just going to take a lot of money to get there - they were really lucky with the timing of the CHIPS act but even then have still needed PE money. If they hadn't borrowed against their overseas cash to drive buybacks/dividends so aggressively they wouldn't have needed the PE guys , but that's what you get when finance people are have too long a leash.
 

Kepler_L2

Senior member
Sep 6, 2020
581
2,401
136
Clearwater looks like a decent product, a good Arm competitor.

BTW, what's up with rumors that Intel cancelled future E-Core based server product past Clearwater Forrest? Some rumors regarding the demise of the E-Cores and that development team.
Rumors on reddit from what appears to be ex-Intel employees that Intel will only have 1 CPU design team going forward.
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
1,079
746
136
Rumors on reddit from what appears to be ex-Intel employees that Intel will only have 1 CPU design team going forward.
Got a link on that?

Seems interesting since the whole point of Royal was to subsume the p and e cores. So they’re going to wind up merging anyway. If so it sounds like Panther (aka Coyote) Cove and Arctic Wolf would be the last microarchitectures for p and e.

Commentary about Panther Cove being renamed Coyote Cove:
 

ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,124
1,597
136
Looks like even more cost cutting measures are on the horizon: projected new cuts

Looks like Pat's plan to turn Intel into a foundry business was horribly ill timed. They simply don't have the resources to do it, IMO.
 
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DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,211
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Lunarlake has no direct successor. I want to know which bunch of dimwits authorized that?

If Intel fails then they should force x86 to be open so there's competitor to AMD in that space. Completely open the floodgates.
Rumors on reddit from what appears to be ex-Intel employees that Intel will only have 1 CPU design team going forward.
Other sources are saying NO, so I wouldn't take that seriously.
I read that its not selling. And I can understand. If you wanted a server and you choices were a cut down features CPU that is efficient or another server that is just as efficient, but full featured (bergamo) which would you pick ?
Cause Zen 5 is so awesome that they couldn't get something which Tremont got it working 4 years ago.

No, new products take time to ramp. Also, AMD has lot more reputation than they did few years ago.
This is my thoughts exactly. Pat could have been more aggressive with cuts, but Im sure he did what he thought was necessary at the time.
Pat made one critical mistake. Him and his management team completely flubbed on future revenue projections. They didn't see after the lockdowns were over the computer demand would plummet. So they overinvested, didn't cut sharebuybacks and dividends to pay off their massive debt, and put it into fabs when they were doing good.

Now they are paying for it. Even if he is a good technical guy, I'm afraid that's going to hurt his chances quite badly.
 
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DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,211
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Things that need to change at Intel before they can have a future

-The company Intel is beyond the point of MBAs merely influencing engineers. Their core decisions are driven by them. This needs to change completely. We thought bringing in Pat Gelsinger was enough. It seemed to have made almost no difference.
-The company must be always on the lookout for new opportunities for their main business. What is their main business? Making good CPUs. If they think 1W platform power is low, then try to get it to be 500mW. If they think they have $10 CPUs, look for ways to get it down to $1. Smaller, Lower power, Faster, Better, that is the core of Moore's Law. And out of the four, Smaller + Lower Power benefits disproportionately with Moore's Law and new compute architectures.
-Stop coasting after success. Try to do even better. Lunarlake looks like the most promising chip from them in a while, however it has no direct successor. Remember Lunarlake itself is a follower! It brings nothing new, nothing innovative. Basically copying Apple. So if you were so worried to copy it, why not continue it?

They were FORCED to make Celeron, FORCED to make Pentium M, FORCED to make Core 2, FORCED to make Lunarlake. Why should a commercial company making microprocessors be forced to make microprocessors? The two paradigms are antithetical to each other.
 
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misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
521
611
136
They got drunk on their success, now comes the hangover. Noone wants a monopoly, be it Intel or AMD, so here's hoping they will rise from the ashes that they will most definitely burn themselfs into
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,211
1,932
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They got drunk on their success, now comes the hangover. Noone wants a monopoly, be it Intel or AMD, so here's hoping they will rise from the ashes that they will most definitely burn themselfs into
They had multiple hangovers. In that analogy, Intel is an alcoholic in his 50's with serious liver problems and still drinking like a madman. He needs to stop drinking immediately and even that may not be enough, because the "Liver" is at a critical point.

They are beyond the point of people saying "Maybe you should do something about drinking". They have friends about to leave them, and family members worrying about whether he will survive.
 

misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
521
611
136
Yeah, but to continue the analogy, when the drunk Intel came home and used to beat the little kid it was ok for them, they had the power and the money. Now the kid grew, it doesn't have the same weakness, it's got the server market on a continued growth path and Intel is suddenly powerless and the old techniques don't work anymore.
 

adamge

Member
Aug 15, 2022
92
177
76
I hate to say it, but I think Intel WILL fail. I see no wonderful products, no real vison for products that might change that, and still the "too big a company with too many managers and not enough workers" mentality. I had hope until recently, but I will now admit, I see no other alternative than failure. I actually hope I am wrong. we NEED 2 big companies to make competition work !
We still have Nvidia vs AMD vs Apple. It could be enough to sustain competition and a rising tide.
 

ondma

Diamond Member
Mar 18, 2018
3,124
1,597
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My take on x86 is that the users can choose whether to do their computer work on x86 or an alternative. Every year, there are fewer and fewer spaces where x86 is the only option.
There are options, but x86 is still by far the best platform for PC gaming though, which is my primary interest.
 
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