If Pat's extreme outward /public enthusiam and confidence he constantly shows regarding the companys product releases is even close to a true reflection of how he is internally, then things are only going to get worse.
Weird. I didn't net assets and liabilities but doesn't book value now exceed that?Intel is now worth less than 100B in market cap. Basically a small mom and pop shop.
I hear Hector Ruiz might be available. ;-)Hopefully they bring back Raja Koduri to turn the ship around.
Wasn't that Arizona? Or maybe they both make them.13th gen CPUs with via oxidation problems?
Weird. I didn't net assets and liabilities but doesn't book value now exceed that?
I've been rooting for Gelsinger and Intel because industry competition is good for consumers. But 3 years into a challenging rebuild, I think he's done. U.S. institutional investors have zero patience, so they won't put up with this much red ink.I hope Intel can turn things around. I don't have faith that their current CEO can lead it.
Quick tidbits from the call:
- Lunar Lake fabrication was "almost entirely outsourced".
On-package memory also will hurt Lunar Lake margins.
Biggest CCG margin killer: Meteor Lake was designed to ramp on Oregon fabs. But Intel made a late-breaking switch to Ireland fabs: problematically, Ireland fabs have "a much higher wafer cost" and costs will stay higher in the next quarter.
A lot of would-be 18A customers were waiting for the PDK and did not necessarily commit.
Needless speculation: which CPUs are made in Intel's Oregon fabs? ...13th gen CPUs with via oxidation problems?
I'd be willing to bet that there a few law firms out there checking into a stockholders suit.I've been rooting for Gelsinger and Intel because industry competition is good for consumers. But 3 years into a challenging rebuild, I think he's done. U.S. institutional investors have zero patience, so they won't put up with this much red ink.
I think it does. Even their non-GAAP estimate EPS is negative for next quarter. It's really bad guidance, how much worse do you think it will be?All of the proposed performance in the next quarter does not seem to account for this.
On a more serious note, it's amazing how, at a time of an AI and semiconductor boom, Intel is completely failing. Both the fab business, where they could have been a TSMC competitor but also if Koduri could actually execute he might have been able to "save" Intel, if they had actually executed on time with their GPU/HPC/HPG for AI. They missed both their timelines, and I assume their performance targets, and now Intel is looking at stock prices not seen for more than ten years.Hopefully they bring back Raja Koduri to turn the ship around.
That's a shame. In such a hyper competitive market where customers are desperate for an alternative to TSMC, Intel had the opportunity present itself and they somehow squandered it. Don't they know that at the cutting edge, it's winner takes all? The amount of profit required to recoup the R&D costs used to develop the node is astronomical. If they can't win any customers, they cannot rely on the continued sinking of investor and/or government money in perpetuity. Something will give and the spigot will get shut.I had heard some rumblings through the grape vine that some potential customers were waiting on some crucial updates to the PDK that had been delayed. Sounds like they may have got tired of waiting.
FWIW, CCG (Client Computing) operating margins look decent, but Foundry + DCAI (datacenter, AI) + NEX (network, edge) + Altera (FPGA etc) + Mobileye (automated driving) seem to all be quite weak:
I think it is semi-fictional but it also accounts for the hypothetical: if given the option the Client team would be using TSMC for many more products.Maybe those Client operating margins are fictional, based on "Foundry" giving dies to "Products" at fictionally low price.
If you combine Foundry with Client, Foundry lost all the profit Client made.
LNL will be low volume and likely expensive. On client, Intel would probably still be shipping mostly RPL even with both MTL and LNL launched.I think it does. Even their non-GAAP estimate EPS is negative for next quarter. It's really bad guidance, how much worse do you think it will be?
I'm really hoping Lunar Lake will be a success, it seems like the most balanced product than they have shipped for years. But it seems like they don't think it'll save their margins.
1) Turin is supposed to be Q4, but GNR should also be out by then as well. This will be the closest Intel has been to AMD in competitiveness in this segment in years.OK, I got refuted last time, but I will try again. Problems next quarter:
1) Turin will be out, and even though Genoa/Bergamo are going gangbusters, with sapphire rapids also having some server issues or at least getting beaten badly by Genoa, Turin will just exacerbate the lead. AMD is almost already doing as well in server as Intel per the last quarterly of both companies.
2) Desktop, while it may not be huge, Intel will fail horribly due to the current problem, andZen 5 will be killer.
3) In laptop space, AMD is a real contender per the latests reviews.
All of the proposed performance in the next quarter does not seem to account for this.
I think they sunk too much into the 5N4Y plan by now. They can't afford to back out now IMO.It's high time Intel spun off the fabs. Cuz clearly they cannot afford to continue on the leading edge. They simply don't have the cash.
We will see over the next few months. Turin and Zen 5 I still product will beat anything Intel has by miles. Lets see if I am right in Dec.1) Turin is supposed to be Q4, but GNR should also be out by then as well. This will be the closest Intel has been to AMD in competitiveness in this segment in years.
2) RPL instability sucks, but doesn't seem like too big deal. None of the analysts even bothered asking about it... Also, how is Zen 5 a killer? People are going to keep buying Zen 4X3D it looks like, considering Zen 5 doesn't even seem like it will beat Zen 4X3D in gaming lol. Intel's position compared to it's current position will only go up, even with ARL vs Zen 5X3D. The current gaming king is still Zen 4X3D, and when Zen 5X3D launches, will still be Zen 5X3D. So nothing changes there. The only change is that ARL is likely to be much better in power consumption vs AMD than RPL is vs AMD.
3) Again, this isn't anything new. AMD was a real contender even with Zen 4 as well. If anything, LNL seems like it will finally carve out a mobile niche where Intel finally can beat AMD.
In short, competition wise, Intel has no where to go but up esentially. What will hurt is the RPL instability, not because of costs directly attributed to this IMO, but because of how it will impact OEM relations.
I think they sunk too much into the 5N4Y plan by now. They can't afford to back out now IMO.
I don’t see Turin beating GNR by a larger margin than Genoa did against SPR. I don’t see how that math works out, especially when they’re competing at both node and core count parity for the first time in a while. If SRF efficiency is anything to go by, I think GNR will be fine.1) Turin will be out, and even though Genoa/Bergamo are going gangbusters, with sapphire rapids also having some server issues or at least getting beaten badly by Genoa, Turin will just exacerbate the lead. AMD is almost already doing as well in server as Intel per the last quarterly of both companies.
I don’t see Strix’s efficiency beating MTL refresh or ARL-H by more than Phoenix did against RPL.3) In laptop space, AMD is a real contender per the latests reviews.
Genoa beats SR by a lot. This is not the place for benchmarks, but start a thread with them if you think so. as for strix, its already beyond expectations, so again, I don't see it. But as I said, wait till Dec.I don’t see Turin beating GNR by a larger margin than Genoa did against SPR. I don’t see how that math works out, especially when they’re competing at both node and core count parity for the first time in a while. If SRF efficiency is anything to go by, I think GNR will be fine.
I don’t see Strix’s efficiency beating MTL refresh or ARL-H by more than Phoenix did against RPL.
If anything, Intel’s products this year are the most competitive in mobile and data center than they’ve been in a long time. Unfortunately the rest of the company is imploding so it may not matter.