News Intel 3Q24 Earnings Results

[DavidC1]

Seriously speaking, though: for the sake of US chipmaking if for nothing else, I do want Intel to be #2, but *to be there*. Not necessarily Nvidia tho

The problem is that Intel cannot be sustained with #2 in the PC market, without the fab part becoming independent or the fab getting lots of customers, the latter of which is not going to happen anytime soon. If AMD/Nvidia suddenly announced that they'll fab all their products on Intel fabs, it'll still take few years to get any meaningful things towards significantly helping the company.

"For the sake of US manufacturing", that's not how competition works. Sometimes just like how Smartphones were needed to break apart x86's artificially contrived duopoly, it needs to come from a totally different source. If that's China, then that's how it'll be.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Sometimes just like how Smartphones were needed to break apart x86's artificially contrived duopoly

Smartphones have an MTK/QC duopoly.
Not any different? Just replace x86 with RF patent hell.

 

[DrMrLordX]

36.5% GM guide next Q.
That's rough buddy.

What makes Intel think they can put margin numbers like that in their guidance and have anyone believe them? Everything they're schlepping now is expensive to make. Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake, maybe the only "cheap" thing they have is Granite Rapids assuming the yields on Intel 3 are good enough that they aren't lighting wafers on fire to produce volume ala Ice Lake-SP.

Those charts say "granit rapids increasing competitive" when a review just came out that said that Turin was 20-40% higher in performance and lower in power usage. I don't think those statements by Intel are correct.

They're not gonna put anything else in their slide. Maybe they should have said "doesn't suck as bad as Sapphire Rapids" or whatever but you get the idea.

THIS TIME FOR SURE BROS

Now if it was Nvidia going under, FAIR GAME

Too right m8

Seriously speaking, though: for the sake of US chipmaking if for nothing else, I do want Intel to be #2, but *to be there*. Not necessarily Nvidia tho

Maybe Intel shoulda thought about that before wiping out so much domestic competition.

 

[DavidC1]

They're not gonna put anything else in their slide. Maybe they should have said "doesn't suck as bad as Sapphire Rapids" or whatever but you get the idea.

They didn't say they were beating AMD but more competitive.

They are. The 2P scaling they messed up for 1P results show 10-20% difference.

 

[Doug S]

Yea if someone who knows more about markets could explain the after hours that would be appreciated. Those margins are terrible. AMD has gotten hammered since their earnings report. I guess it is all about the "AI" still.

It looks like they basically decided to do all their writedowns now, rather than try to bleed them out over time. The market likes that, rip the bandaid off and get it over with. Taking the losses now means they'll be able to get tax refunds (from taxes paid in previous years when they were making money) which will help their cash crunch.

The thing to remember about market reactions is that it is all about the expectations. And not necessarily the "consensus" expectations you'll see results compared to in cnbc articles, but the "whisper numbers" on the street that may be better or worse than the consensus. Look at Apple, they beat on all metrics with iPhone 16 sales so far beating iPhone 15 at this time which beat iPhone 14 at this time which sounds pretty good, right? Pretty much perfect other than falling a tiny bit short in Mac/iPad sales, and on top of that they have a good outlook but the stock fell in after hours. Why? Because the whisper numbers were better than the consensus, and Apple fell a bit short of what was hoped for.

 

[DavidC1]

Yea if someone who knows more about markets could explain the after hours that would be appreciated. Those margins are terrible. AMD has gotten hammered since their earnings report. I guess it is all about the "AI" still.

I read it was due to Q4 projections. Just seems weird to have a record quarter and have a sell off.

After hours do not matter as much because the liquidity is very low. What happens the weeks after is what matters.

Intel has been likely oversold, which means that more sold than the value of the company. There IS a floor where people start buying. Usually people think in the extremes. What should the value of Intel share price be? $20? $30? $10, $1? Obviously they are not $1.

The same is true in the opposite matter. I do not know enough about AMD(or even Intel) shares to know whether they are overbought. They could be. Few % dips do not matter.

Think of a pendulum. The averages aren't left leaning nor the right leaning. The average is exactly at the center. Yet it swings wildly. So it goes from overreaction to underreaction.