Intel and AMD say by 2015 We will have 128 core CPU's

[MikeA65]

Xeon Phi is a coprocessor, not a CPU.

But with the current race for MOAR COARS!!!! by Mediatek, I bet they'll have a dodeca-cluster, 8 cores per cluster A53 CPU SoC in a couple of years. That would be 96 cores, which is at least pretty close to 128.

The forthcoming Xeon Phi, Knights Landing, has a socketed version and can be used as a stand alone CPU.

 

[NTMBK]

The forthcoming Xeon Phi, Knights Landing, has a socketed version and can be used as a stand alone CPU.

With per-core performance lower than a 2005 server CPU...

 

[witeken]

Well it's now 2015 and there's still no 128 core CPU's from AMD or Intel.

I'm sitting here laughing as i read back over some of the posts made here!

10nm Xeon Phi should be possible. But EUV and 450mm still haven't arrived, so Moore's Law slowed a bit down.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

More than that. But this was specifically about CPUs, not GPUs. It's not that we don't know...we just ignore it since it's off-topic ;[] I mean...if we say it like that...then AMDs A10 series has either 12 or 516 cores in its' CPU *cough*

Well, its a "core" right...? Or is it? At least its in a computer...?

*ahem* you know, a man could blow a fuse thinking about that. So lets just leave it there...

 

[SAAA]

I like how OP was almost spot on on GPUs and monitors in his predictions: we have 3D displays and a bit more than 1024 "pipeline" GPUs if you count shaders as that, currently >3000 on a single card and also >10GB memory!

But on the CPU side... yes a cluster of 128 A7-A53 could be feasible right now, even 128 Airmont cores given their size, but as NTMBK points out single thread performance will be lower than 2005 level.
Unless you start mixing cores up like 1-2 big cores packed with 50+ smaller cores.

Isn't that almost a thing with the incoming Phi? I mean you could have a dual socket motherboard with a Xeon + the accelerator for an extreme mix of performance... at some 10000$ of course ;-)

 

[positivedoppler]

I do like the idea that you would have one massively powerful appliance that handles all your processing with 128 cores. It's like a personal cloud. Other appliances such as phones, tablets, TV, etc...would just connect to your server to offload all the processing while your at home.

 

[TeknoBug]

Well it's now 2015 and there's still no 128 core CPU's from AMD or Intel.

I'm sitting here laughing as i read back over some of the posts made here!

Me too, however it's kind of getting close, but definitely not on a consumer level.

Funny that one of the hottest selling CPU's right now is the dual core Pentium G3258.

PS- mods, please don't lock this, this is one of those threads worth looking back to, a blast from the past!

 

[DrMrLordX]

Forum zombie approves of thread necromancy. Please don't turn/rebuke! Thank you.

Phi was the first thing I thought of. KNL has 72 cores and can handle . . . 288 threads? POWER8 and Oracle's T5 were the second and third thing I thought of. A 12-chiplet POWER8 can do, what, 96 threads? Not really sure about the T5 but I expect that it is massively parallel.

 

[NTMBK]

If we follow NVidia logic and count every SIMD lane as a "core", then a top end Haswell Xeon has 288 "cores"!

 

[Idontcare]

是，她是从哪里来？

她是美國人，就像我一樣。她的工作是在台北。

 

[scannall]

她是美國人，就像我一樣。她的工作是在台北。

只是好奇而已。我的一个朋友嫁给了一个女人从台北。他一直住在那里多年前作为爱国者。

 

[Ancalagon44]

In 10 years, you'll hardly notice computers. Your VR goggles won't connect to a computer - they will have enough silicon in them to render a VR world. Your smartphone will have a CPU, obviously, and so will a lot of things that currently don't.

People will become less aware of what is and what isn't a computer. Also, terms like CPU and GPU will become old fashioned, because nobody will care anymore.

 

[Chaoticlusts]

Have to jump in and add a +1 to this being the best thread necro I have ever seen ^_^

My predictions for 10 years (cause why not for fun )

Someone will bring in a VR headset that isn't permanently isolating (something like controlled transparency) eliminating the 'anti-social' issue current designs have with market penetration

Desktops will be vastly rarer than they are now, budget models could easily be non-existent with only power users still needing them at all. Possibly even dying out altogether with dedicated devices for the few remaining power users such as GPU boxes for gamers/graphics designers to plug into your main 'computer' (some kind of portable)

There will be some fusion of the ultrabook/tablet/smartphone market (quote and reply below about this) since the power difference between all 3 will be meaningless to most users the only real difference will be screen size.

I'd say optical media will be dead but that's not really a prediction since it's mostly happened already

Resolution will have maxed out (possibly at 4K, but I'm guessing marketing will push it to 8K) and screen technologies will transition to focusing on other areas such as significant gains in contrast ratios, light weight thin possibly even flexible (and hopefully optionally transparent) displays for portability

Although I guess that's starting to get off the CPU topic . I'm no expert I'm sure I'll be wrong on most/all of these but hey it's fun to speculate ^_^.. I would love to say screw all displays/inputs we'll have neural links but I know that's not going to happen for dozens of reasons... The cyberpunk kiddie in me desperately wishes it would though

Instead of a Computer at your house doing all that processing for tasks It's more likely that people will just buy services where that processing is offloaded through internet pipe to a service provider.

I really don't see this one happening without a complete physical rebuild of the internet..Which granted will happen one day but it's a long long way off. Basically the load running everyone's standard day to day computing would put on the pipelines would be insane plus the cost of operating it could well exceed the cost of the increasingly ubiquitous low power pc's we see nowdays that are getting pretty amazing at handling average usage as long as you aren't a power user. That's not even getting into the privacy side of it, although honestly that's a lost game at this point anyway

instead I think smartphones will get potent enough to be your everyday PC. Most of the tech is already there, Widi type connection to a monitor or two, bluetooth to a keyboard/mouse and you're there.

This.. Very much this.... The rate that smartphones power has increased at is insane, obviously it will slow down at some point but still.. There's already been companies that have tried the 'smartphone for everything' concept the Asus Padphone being a big one but it was just too early and couldn't quite do the different tasks well enough.

But I really don't think we're that far off a product like that being completely viable and your phone essentially replacing your Chromebook or possibly even ultrabook which are powerful enough for the vast majority of users needs (not most users here obviously...we like our high end CPUs and GPUs ). I would jump on a functional version of the Padphone in a second to replace my hybrid tablet/ultrabook if someone managed to make one.

I don't think I could ever get rid of a high end home computer simply because of gaming..and while I know there are places trying cloud gaming the latency is a huge factor plus my geographical location means even if they do get services like that functional it'll be a long long long time before I see a server within several thousand kilometres

 

[Borealis7]

VR...you guys are funny.
i EXPECT to have a chip inside my brain in 10 years, that can shut off my visual sense and replace it with a video stream, if not simply implanting me with the memory of watching a video because who has 2 hours to watch a movie when you can simply "remember" watching it?

in my opinion, seeing a movie and remembering seeing a movie (and all the emotions associated with that spent time) is the same. kind of like Neo saying "i know kung-fu" in the first Matrix film.

alas, due to my high expectations, i will be disappointed to find non-revolutionary technology in the coming 10 years as well.

 

[greatnoob]

In 2398 IPv6 will start rolling over IPv4... slowly.... sooner or later

 

[ShintaiDK]

In 2398 IPv6 will start rolling over IPv4... slowly.... sooner or later

I say you are a crazy optimist.

But its not that far relatively from the current projection.

 

[redhotiron2004]

Cool thread:
My predictions:
1. 3-5D projectors that would even be available on your watch etc would be everywhere with a central wireless computer or internet computing controlling it.

2. Computers as we know would change completely. My prediction is that they would become completely stackable. Just add the component and your computer is upgraded with more cores or have completely new capability.

3. A single CPU would have all the components of the motherboard, psu, gpu, ram, wifi, Bluetooth etc.
The motherboard would become obsolete as a common interface with stackable computer would come up. Common interface might be related to some fast technology like laser or optical fibre.

4. I suppose that even a small micro projector would become a part of that single super CPU.

5. The power requirements and sources would become diverse. A cpu would be capable enough to get power even from light comming from the tubelight or the sun etc

6 Virtual 3-5d reality and personal assistants like windows cortana etc would become common place and super intelligent as the cpu would be able to have all those capabilities in itself.

 

[DrMrLordX]

My predictions: stuff happens involving humans. Probably.

 

[Systems analyst]

My prediction for the future:
2101:
Computer scientists announce that they have developed the most complex structure in the known universe.
Biologists respond that the most complex structure in the known universe is a woman's brain, and advise the computer scientists to get out more.

 

[Rakehellion]

xeon phi came quite close.

That isn't a desktop chip. Might as well include the Nvidia Titan.

 

[Rakehellion]

I saw the video of UT2007. There isn't much room for improvement over that. I mean, yeah, you can improve, but like...maybe UT2009 or UT2010 will be like the most detail you could have on the screen.

kek

My own predictions FWIW...

1. It'll be far more than 128 cores, more like 1024 cores
2. Clockspeed will increase exponentially (THz?)
3. The size of the chip will decrease drasticly (10% of current sizes?)
4. It will be manufactured using carbon nanotubes
5. AMD and Intel will be far behind IBM in the process (IBM is the current leader by far in nanogates)
6. Anand will succeed in his run for the Senate...

This thread is as stupid as those old videos from the 50s that said we would be living on the moon now...

Best quote by far.

 

[Beavermatic]

What if this is the definition of insanity... 10 years from now everyone will look back on the 2015 additions to a 2005 thread and laugh. Ten years after that, everyone will laugh at the 2025 predictions, the 2015 predictions, and the 2005, and so on and so forth.

What if it's a sad reminder how much CPU tech has progressively slowed compared to exploding tech leaps 10 years prior to 2005 and 10 years before 1995...

 

[witeken]

What if it's a sad reminder how much CPU tech has progressively slowed compared to exploding tech leaps 10 years prior to 2005 and 10 years before 1995...

It just means that people can't predict the future. No surprise. Certainly if the physics becomes more complicated.

 

[III-V]

What if this is the definition of insanity... 10 years from now everyone will look back on the 2015 additions to a 2005 thread and laugh. Ten years after that, everyone will laugh at the 2025 predictions, the 2015 predictions, and the 2005, and so on and so forth.

What if it's a sad reminder how much CPU tech has progressively slowed compared to exploding tech leaps 10 years prior to 2005 and 10 years before 1995...

It hasn't slowed so much as it's gone in a different direction. Partly because it's been forced to -- e.g., comatose Dennard Scaling -- and largely because of the mobile boom.

Mobile's seen tremendous leaps forward. We're not terribly far off from hitting another wall there too, but the post-Silicon era should (hopefully) reign in before that becomes an issue.

As far as high performance goes, multi-core just hasn't caught on, and for good reason. It's expensive for the kind of benefit most users will see, and there are bigger priorities than moving past the quadcore sweet spot. Instead, the focus has largely moved to graphics, because higher resolutions and high PPI is "in" right now. Once those needs are met (as in 4K and the like becomes very affordable from a graphics hardware standpoint), they'll still potentially have increasing need for graphics, as VR is very graphics intensive and has a lot of industry backing right now.

Also in the performance-oriented realm, we're seeing a big focus on fixed-function hardware. GPUs have become very compute-oriented. Intel's put a pretty considerable amount of die real estate aside for Quick Sync. Various codecs and image formats now have considerable hardware being devoted to them. Encryption is also really big right now. And if you're able to make use of it, AVX can drastically boost performance compared to SSE

While the CPU itself hasn't moved far, it hasn't needed to. The biggest problem right now is using CPUs efficiently, and great strides have been made and will continue to be made. DX12 is an example of this. Eventually, some breakthrough with CPUs will be made (probably on the memory side of things), and we'll be all the better off thanks to the refocus on using CPU cycles efficiently.

 

[Cheesemoo]

I agree, I don't understand why moderators feel compelled to kill old threads. I see absolutely NOTHING WRONG with "necroing".

Thank you! I totally agree. Cant necro, cant make a second thread about the same topic, that is conflicting.