RussianSensation
Elite Member
- Sep 5, 2003
- 19,458
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I think AMD will have a very hard time gaining share in the enthusiast segment. Intel is in the driver's seat here. By the time Zen comes, Intel will be on the eve of launching Skylake-E, which might increase the top core count to 12, meaning that instead of gunning for Intel's $500+ CPUs with 8 core Zen, it will be stuck fighting defective 12 core chips masquerading as 8 core chips
Here is the scary part. Even if AMD puts an 8-core Zen out on time and hits 40% IPC increase, the CPU would need to have at least as good overclocking headroom as Intel's competing part, otherwise the IPC 'comeback' will get neutralized by Intel's overclocking headroom. Bulldozer/Vishera could hit high clocks but it's MUCH harder to overclock well with a short/efficient pipeline. OTOH, Intel is already hitting 4.4-4.5Ghz on the 5960X and this should grow with SKL-E.
AMD would need to undercut Intel on both the CPU side and motherboard/chipset platform side but with new AMD management, with Fiji they showed that they are not interested in playing any price/performance games even if their product is slower by a lot. That means AMD is not going to be in a position to play price/performance price wars with Intel either.
Basically they are just falling into the 101 business case strategy failures - no first mover advantage, no financial ability to compete on price, lagging behind technologically (IPC) on both per core and number of core performance offerings and most importantly, all of this assumes their chips don't skyrocket in perf/watt with overclocking. That's a big assumption in itself since we don't know how well GloFo's FinFET compares to Intel's proven node. By the time GloFo is on 1st gen high performance FinFET, Intel will be on an extremely proven 14nm and soon 10nm. Just another scenario where AMD cannot win.
AMD just needs to pray that Intel continues to have a lackluster $100-350 mainstream segment with cripple i3s, weak sauce i5 and glorified i5 - aka i7 quad. I honestly don't see Zen even touching the 6-core SKL-E HDET platform when looking at OC vs. OC. I'd be surprised if they could.
Their best strategy would be to have big discounts on AMD CPU + mobo + GPU combos but in the last 10 years they have shown that they don't want to do this.
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