Intel Cannonlake 10 nm delayed, introducing KabyLake

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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
I personally think that's crappy and irresponsible journalism.

But how else would you get the clicks?

Quite a bit of sites directly specialize in homemade gossip because they have a blind following crowd.
 

tenks

Senior member
Apr 26, 2007
287
0
0
Yea I should know this already, I was just bitter on a good one. Tired of some of these sites and the garbage they spread.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,926
404
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So after Skylake, it'll be late 2017 until we see some new CPU performance improvement on Intel desktop CPUs? And Cannonlake being a Tick it's uncertain how much, maybe it'll be until the Tock after that in late 2018 or early 2019 that we see a noticeable CPU performance bump?

Those who got Sandy Bridge in January 2011 sure did a wise move. Even ~7-8 years after, it's likely borderline if it'll be worth upgrading, even for enthusiasts.

That is unless you need new I/O ports, would like to get a smaller AIO sized computer, or similar.
 
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CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
832
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So after Skylake, it'll be late 2017 until we see some new CPU performance improvement on Intel desktop CPUs? And Cannonlake being a Tick it's uncertain how much, maybe it'll be until the Tock after that in late 2018 or early 2019 that we see a noticeable CPU performance bump?

Those who got Sandy Bridge in January 2011 sure did a wise move. Even ~7-8 years after, it's likely borderline if it'll be worth upgrading, even for enthusiasts.

That is unless you need new I/O ports, would like to get a smaller AIO sized computer, or similar.

I've been saying for a few years now that my i5 3570K @ 4.0Ghz will likely last me 10 years. :whiste:
 

rtsurfer

Senior member
Oct 14, 2013
733
15
76
Intel's customers are asking them to slow down. Changing platforms is expensive.

I mean they could just keep the same platforms & just design processors with backwards compatibility, but then how will the Mobo manufacturers make their profits. :whiste:
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
You're right, we shouldn't change platforms, EDO memory and IDE are good enough.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
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I've been saying for a few years now that my i5 3570K @ 4.0Ghz will likely last me 10 years. :whiste:

And then they wonder why PC sales are stagnating. Intel is shooting itself in the foot if they keep improving at current snail pace as nobody needs to upgrade. Only reason to upgrade CPU somewhat early is probably if your MB fails and you can't get any replacements anymore. Actually another reason for intel to go soldered CPUs only. More sales.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
I've been saying for a few years now that my i5 3570K @ 4.0Ghz will likely last me 10 years. :whiste:

Yeap, seams the luck of competition is good for the consumer pocket :biggrin:

Unless Win 10 and DX-12 doesnt change things up, I will keep my Core i7 3770K@4.44GHz until i get my pension (from what it seams to come when i turn 99)
 

CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
832
136
And then they wonder why PC sales are stagnating. Intel is shooting itself in the foot if they keep improving at current snail pace as nobody needs to upgrade. Only reason to upgrade CPU somewhat early is probably if your MB fails and you can't get any replacements anymore. Actually another reason for intel to go soldered CPUs only. More sales.

Yeap, seams the luck of competition is good for the consumer pocket :biggrin:

Unless Win 10 and DX-12 doesnt change things up, I will keep my Core i7 3770K@4.44GHz until i get my pension (from what it seams to come when i turn 99)

Well it isn't just Intel's slow rate of progress in single core performance, but none of the software I currently use, even remotely goes close to taxing my system.

So even if Skylake was twice as fast as my IB system, why would I bother upgrading anyway?

It seems like we have entered a period on the desktop where there just aren't any killer apps that need more processing power.

The stagnation of desktop processors has forced me to find new hobbies, so I shouldn't complain, as I have rediscovered my love of cycling and the upgrade possibilities and tinkering with cycling is literally never ending. :biggrin:
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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I just meant to say they could stop changing so many sockets.

It's better for Intel, its partners, and consumers to keep improving the platform and obsoleting the older sockets.

We get better products, Intel sells more chipsets, and the motherboard companies can actually sell new motherboards.
 

rtsurfer

Senior member
Oct 14, 2013
733
15
76
It's better for Intel, its partners, and consumers to keep improving the platform and obsoleting the older sockets.

We get better products, Intel sells more chipsets, and the motherboard companies can actually sell new motherboards.
I get that.
I wouldn't want forward progress being halted for the sake of maintaining Backwards socket compatibility.

But maybe the could make it last for at least 2 years.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
138
106
Consequences of AMD being retarded... If there is no competition, the market is screwing by the vendors... And if they continues to go.retarded a market crash happens.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
138
106
Socket compatibility means nothing. Motherboard compatibility on the other hand...
Mean nothing for Intel too.... is better to constantly change products if you want more power...

The times that you can go from the lowest tier to the highest tier of components without any nerf are over...
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,926
404
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Update: Intel has now confirmed the info in the OP. I.e. Cannonlake 10 nm is delayed, and Kaby Lake introduced.

See: http://seekingalpha.com/article/332...-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2

[Brian M. Krzanich - Intel CEO speaking at 2015Q2 earnings call]

As node transitions lengthened, we adapted our approach to the Tick-Tock method, which gave us a second product on each node. This strategy created better products for our customers and a competitive advantage for Intel. It also disproved the death of Moore's Law predictions many times over. The last two technology transitions have signaled that our cadence today is closer to 2.5 years than two.

To address this cadence, in the second half of 2016 we plan to introduce a third 14-nanometer product, code named Kaby Lake, built on the foundations of the Skylake micro-architecture but with key performance enhancements. Then in the second half of 2017, we expect to launch our first 10-nanometer product, code named Cannonlake. We expect that this addition to the roadmap will deliver new features and improved performance and pave the way for a smooth transition to 10-nanometers.
And also: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015...ng-kaby-lake-processor-as-moores-law-falters/

Intel confirms tick-tock shattering Kaby Lake processor as Moore’s Law falters

Company will make three generations of 14nm processors, delaying the switch to 10nm.

Intel has confirmed today that it will build a third generation of processors on its 14nm process, and that the switch to 10nm manufacturing has been delayed until the second half of 2017, showing the challenges that Moore's Law is under, and bringing an end to the company's "tick-tock" strategy.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
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RIP Tick-Tock. Brian Krzanich is treating dangerous waters here...

I hope he follows Intel's legacy of investing more instead of less in difficult times. I wonder what will happen to Intel's momentous process lead. My first guess is it should stay flat.

Could it be Intel's waiting for EUV?

But yeah, we had some bad news in the last couple of years. The cost per foundry transistor first remained flat and 28nm was a very long nodes and still is for GPUs. We got the FinFET transition on the 20nm BEOL, 14 got delayed by 9 months, and now, after all the optimism from the investor meeting, Intel declares Moore's Law death.

Happy 50th anniversary, Moore's Law.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
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Sure, but we're talking about Intel here. Intel talked about 14nm like it was this one exception, that is not nice. Enjoy these quotes from November:

The mission is to really utilize Moore's Law. We have it. We believe we lead at it. We drive it. We define Moore's Law as a company.” --Brian Krzanich, CEO Intel, IM’14

“We will not take the foot off the [Moore's law] pedal here.” --Brian Krzanich, CEO Intel, IM’14

“The first one is Moore's Law, and I'll talk a little bit about that this morning, but Bill's gonna give you a really fun, in-depth discussion of Moore's Law for those who really enjoy it. [laughing audience] I do wanna make a point thought: next year is the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law, and I don't think a lot of people think about this being a law that's been around for 50 years. And through that time, my 30 year engagement with that 50 years of myself personally as an engineer at Intel, I can tell you many times people've talked about the Law ending. Our job at Intel is to make sure it lives on for as long as possible. But 50 years is a momentous milestone and we will be doing some things next year to recognize that.” --Brian Krzanich, CEO Intel, IM’14

“We felt like we went on a little early with 14nm as far as timing and performance and features and we saw actually competitors adjust to that. So we're gonna be a little bit more prudent, a little smarter about signaling to the industry exactly when, what and where. And you'll have to trust a little bit the 50 year history we have with Moore's Law and that we should be able to keep it going for 51 or 52 years. So we're gonna be a little careful there about that signaling exactly when, what and where.” --Brian Krzanich, CEO Intel, IM’14

“We do think that we've been giving too much insight too far in advance and so we'll talk about 10nm some time in the next 12 or 18 months [from Nov '14] and when it's appropriate.” Stacy Smith, CFO Intel, IM’14

“But you are seeing in the fourth quarter, you’re seeing the front edge of the startup cost associated with the 10-nanometer and that’s kind of right in line with the historical timing of what you’d expect.” Stacy Smith, CFO Intel, IM’14
 
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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Looks like AMD might actually have a chance to catch up, and get Zen APUs out before Cannonlake/Icelake comes along.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Looks like AMD might actually have a chance to catch up, and get Zen APUs out before Cannonlake/Icelake comes along.
AMD is still 1+ nodes behind Intel as always,and their architecture is inferior. TSMC, Samsung and GloFo really won't have a free launch, although it's of course much better for them that Intel's 10nm is >>1 year delayed.

I hope we get some technical and quantitative information.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
AMD is still 1+ nodes behind Intel as always,and their architecture is inferior. TSMC, Samsung and GloFo really won't have a free launch, although it's of course much better for them that Intel's 10nm is >>1 year delayed.

I hope we get some technical and quantitative information.

Given that we haven't got any solid info on the Zen architecture yet, I'm not sure how you can comment on it

Yes, it's clearly going to be an uphill battle, but at least it will be against 14nm as opposed to 10nm.
 

CakeMonster

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2012
1,428
535
136
Does that mean that we can expect 3 products on a node from now on (Tick, Tock, Tock), since that's what they will do on 14nm? Or is 14nm the exception?

Looking at the absence of a Tick in 2014 on desktop (we're still on HW), I feel completely in the dark about what we can expect, and this only made things more confusing.

Any info out on what improvements the 2016 product will feature?
 
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