Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,395
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all Comet Lake -K SKUs were out of stock constantly for over a month
add Coffee Lake to the mix
Now, let’s talk about availability. The top-of-the-range Core i7-8700K model is not available from major retailers at all. Even on auction sites, there were only two sellers to offer this chip for $800 - $900 at press time. The Core i7-8700 is more readily available from large suppliers, but the majority of online stores cannot ship it right now.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,836
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The 10900K was binned to extreme degree where it's barely available even today, but that didn't happen with all the other dies.

The other 8 and 10 core models haven't been that available either. The 9700K and 9900K have been easier to get. Didn't help that Comet Lake-H went with the 8 core die. With no mobile version of the die coming, I would agree that DIY availability won't be great.
 

tamz_msc

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2017
3,865
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Really? I'm pretty sure Intel use substrates, right?

Turns out N7 isn't the only bottleneck in the industry.

And substrates were a problem before a fire at one of the factories producing them a month ago.
But the difference is that Intel is slowly moving their critical products(mobile and server) off their most profitable node. On server things aren't as clear-cut but mobile chips are definitely moving to 10nm. I see mostly Ice-Lake and Tiger-Lake in the U-laptops worth buying these days, with the Comet Lake CPUs being relegated to entry-level models except in a few models like the pro ones which require vPro which isn't available on Ice-Lake or Tiger-Lake.
Did you conveniently forget how all Comet Lake -K SKUs were out of stock constantly for over a month after launch?

The 10900K was binned to extreme degree where it's barely available even today, but that didn't happen with all the other dies.
I did not state a word about availability. I'm simply comparing value at the suggested MSRP, stating that if by any chance the i7 Rocket Lake with 8-cores and HT is priced closer to $350, it will be a much better deal than the 5800X which costs $450. I also don't care about comparisons with the i9, as the difference between the i9 and i7 in this generation is rumored to be simply a clock speed difference of 300 MHz.
 
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tamz_msc

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2017
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The other 8 and 10 core models haven't been that available either. The 9700K and 9900K have been easier to get. Didn't help that Comet Lake-H went with the 8 core die. With no mobile version of the die coming, I would agree that DIY availability won't be great.
10850K availability:


10700K availability:

 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
This.

Worth keeping in mind Intel are pulling back availability two months from March -> January. The chances that Rocket Lake will be available in with decent volume is aren't all that high.

Honestly after what happened with the 10900K I'm expecting the Rocket Lake i9 to also be practically unobtainable for a while.

That really didn't last very long (supply constraint) with 10th gen in DIY space, and never existed in OEM space.

The fact that this most recent leak was in an HP Omen with unknown chipset already implies that major OEMs are getting and testing the chips.

AMD didn't have a single one of the major OEMs for Zen 3. The reason is obvious.

These big OEMs all ship well north of 1M per month - between them around 220M/year which means an avg of 37M PCs/month between the 6 majors (3M / month avg).

They aren't going to mess with AMD giving them 1000 Zen 3 chips / month.

People don't have a concept of just how big these OEMs are compared to these hobby shops. Relatively speaking, there will be a lot of 11th gen, simply by virtue of having even one of these OEMs shipping kit.

I just hope they supply the DIY market, and don't jack up prices on 11th gen. 10th gen had significant price drops vs 9th gen, even more so recently.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
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Zucker2k

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2006
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But the difference is that Intel is slowly moving their critical products(mobile and server) off their most profitable node. On server things aren't as clear-cut but mobile chips are definitely moving to 10nm. I see mostly Ice-Lake and Tiger-Lake in the U-laptops worth buying these days, with the Comet Lake CPUs being relegated to entry-level models except in a few models like the pro ones which require vPro which isn't available on Ice-Lake or Tiger-Lake.
This. The pressure on 14nm is going to be less this time around. Plus, Alderlake-S is just around the corner, on 10nm, so RocketLake-S is going to be mainly a limited release just to keep AMD honest for 2021.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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This. The pressure on 14nm is going to be less this time around. Plus, Alderlake-S is just around the corner, on 10nm, so RocketLake-S is going to be mainly a limited release just to keep AMD honest for 2021.
I see Rocket Lake as Intel's main product for the gaming community, which is pretty substantial these days, but still far fewer units than corporate desktops. I expect it will be competitive with Zen3, and as such, will have value till Zen4 shows up. Alder Lake, as Intel's first large CPU on 10nm could be capacity strained for it's entire existence - we'll have to wait and see.

It is looking more and more likely that Intel's 7nm node will be another stopgap till 5nm (as Intel will be using TSMC for the 'Atom' line and some server CPUs). It would be good for consumers if Intel can get it together by 5nm so there is better competition - but who knows, things still look pessimistic.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
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I see Rocket Lake as Intel's main product for the gaming community, which is pretty substantial these days, but still far fewer units than corporate desktops. I expect it will be competitive with Zen3, and as such, will have value till Zen4 shows up. Alder Lake, as Intel's first large CPU on 10nm could be capacity strained for it's entire existence - we'll have to wait and see.

It is looking more and more likely that Intel's 7nm node will be another stopgap till 5nm (as Intel will be using TSMC for the 'Atom' line and some server CPUs). It would be good for consumers if Intel can get it together by 5nm so there is better competition - but who knows, things still look pessimistic.

Worth noting, Intel's specs for their 7nm is 15-30% more dense than TSMC 5nm. Intel is reportedly 202-220 MT/mm vs TSMC 5nm being 173 MT/mm.

So if Intel gets their 7nm going in late 2021, they will for at least 6 months or so have the highest density node shipping since TSMC 3nm won't be online until late 2022.

And, the TSMC 3nm process node is supposed to be 250MT/mm, which really isn't near a full 'true' node ahead of Intel 7nm @ 202-220MT/mm.

But Intel needs to start hitting its deadlines.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,836
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Worth noting, Intel's specs for their 7nm is 15-30% more dense than TSMC 5nm. Intel is reportedly 202-220 MT/mm vs TSMC 5nm being 173 MT/mm.

As for 7 nm... well, it's looking increasingly likely that Intel is going to announce that they are going to fab Core & Xeon at TSMC in January. Bob may say that 7 nm is not dead, but who knows if you will ever see it.
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,271
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Worth noting, Intel's specs for their 7nm is 15-30% more dense than TSMC 5nm. Intel is reportedly 202-220 MT/mm vs TSMC 5nm being 173 MT/mm.

For context, the Intel density number came from an off-hand remark made by the CEO years ago, who has since been fired, and the process is nowhere in sight. It has since been parroted repeated by witeken (aka Arne Verheyde) on seekingalpha.com, who has zero credibility and veracity.

TSMC 5nm on the other hand is already on the market in volume.
 

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,712
3,932
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For context, the Intel density number came from an off-hand remark made by the CEO years ago, who has since been fired, and the process is nowhere in sight. It has since been parroted repeated by witeken (aka Arne Verheyde) on seekingalpha.com, who has zero credibility and veracity.

TSMC 5nm on the other hand is already on the market in volume.
Besides density, especially something as broad as "process density" is such a useless metric to describe processors. RWT has a good article on that subject (and transistor count):
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
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Besides density, especially something as broad as "process density" is such a useless metric to describe processors. RWT has a good article on that subject (and transistor count):
Just what I was thinking. Intel's 10 nm, despite its relatively high density seems really bad for power consumption. Even 10 nm SF seems decent for performance, but not outstanding for power consumption. Or maybe it is just the core architecture itself that uses too much power relative to a clean sheet design like Zen.
 
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shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
For context, the Intel density number came from an off-hand remark made by the CEO years ago, who has since been fired, and the process is nowhere in sight. It has since been parroted repeated by witeken (aka Arne Verheyde) on seekingalpha.com, who has zero credibility and veracity.

TSMC 5nm on the other hand is already on the market in volume.

I don't have the faintest clue who you're talking about at SeekingAlpha, and don't care. Maybe you should stop reading that crap?

What you're saying is at least 50% false.

It is not just the previous CEO, it's the current one as well.

Source below :


"the company's current
CEO claims it will feature a density that is 2x that of Intel's 10-nanometer node. "

That would mean 202 MT/mm

"Intel's prior CEO, Brian Krzanich, mentioned that 7-nanometer will have "2.4x the compaction ratio" of 10 nm. "


That would be around 242 MT/mm.

Hence it would be 202- 242 MT/mm, with the upper bound actually being higher than what I posted.

Both of those numbers are far denser than anything TSMC or Samsung has said about their 5nm nodes.

This fits the pattern given that Intel's 10nm node is roughly the same density as TSMC's so-called "7nm" node.


 
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dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,271
917
136
I don't have the faintest clue who you're talking about at SeekingAlpha, and don't care. Maybe you should stop reading that crap?

What you're saying is at least 50% false.

It is not just the previous CEO, it's the current one as well.

Source below :


"the company's current
CEO claims it will feature a density that is 2x that of Intel's 10-nanometer node. "

That would mean 202 MT/mm

"Intel's prior CEO, Brian Krzanich, mentioned that 7-nanometer will have "2.4x the compaction ratio" of 10 nm. "

That would be around 242 MT/mm.

Hence it would be 202- 242 MT/mm, with the upper bound actually being higher than what I posted.

Both of those numbers are far denser than anything TSMC or Samsung has said about their 5nm nodes.

This fits the pattern given that Intel's 10nm node is roughly the same density as TSMC's so-called "7nm" node.

Funny how that 2x claim was made in a 2018 investor event where Intel's chief engineer (since fired) claimed that 7nm is on track. I guess you can choose to believe the CEO but really, what has Intel done other than bloviate about roadmaps in the last 4 years? Not too much.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
"Intel's prior CEO, Brian Krzanich, mentioned that 7-nanometer will have "2.4x the compaction ratio" of 10 nm. "
Krzanich was a bullshit artist simply playing to the Wall Street crowd. There is a reason he was fired and it wasn't because he was playing house with another employee. 10nm couldn't hit its density targets and there is no way 7nm will be that dense when it's released. Intel can't push 7nm that aggressively after dropping the ball on 10nm (were they tried to one up TSMC on both density and performance - and failed spectacularly).

Intel needs transformational leadership (the whole C-suite) that can change Intel's culture. Swan isn't that guy. He's just there to keep the boat afloat and prevent investors from panicking.
 

tamz_msc

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2017
3,865
3,729
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As for 7 nm... well, it's looking increasingly likely that Intel is going to announce that they are going to fab Core & Xeon at TSMC in January. Bob may say that 7 nm is not dead, but who knows if you will ever see it.
Atom and Xeon SoCs, not Core and Xeon, will be fabbed at TSMC.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
4,173
2,210
136
Xeon based Soc, so its most likely a future Atom based Xeon with Gracemont cores or newer because the non mobile Core are not a Soc...this is unrelated to Core.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,805
11,161
136
Rocket Lake would have been a nice product if it had come out 6 months ago. Now that Ryzen 5xxx is out, it just seems kind of meh.

Agreed, though it would have been a competitor to Comet Lake-S. It came out in March. A June launch for Rocket Lake-S would have been a bit awkward.

I sure hope we get to see RKL-S with good availability and pricing, but given the current market conditions I won't be holding my breath.

The Xeons Intel can actually fab and sell are still 14nm, and much of Intel's desktop and laptop production is also still 14nm. The only reduction in pressure on their 14nm fabs comes from reduction in overall sales volume.
 
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