I am a bit confused by you bashing rumors in your first paragraph and then mentioning rumors throughout the rest of your post.
We can put all of what Intel has publicly mentioned into a single post. Most of it is contained here:
https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...ess-kit-accelerated-event-2021.html#gs.inqbq5 These bullet points are direct from Intel:
- Intel 7 products such as Alder Lake for client in 2021
- Intel 4 will be ready for production in the second half of 2022 for products shipping in 2023, including Meteor Lake
- Intel 3 will be ready to begin manufacturing products in the second half of 2023.
- Intel 20A It is expected to ramp in 2024.
- 2025 and Beyond: Intel 18A is already in development for early 2025
Sure, their plans may go astray and products may slip, but these are their publicly stated goals.
From there, we do need external rumors. Yes, they are rumors, but many do have some strong basis in reality, such as leaked benchmarks, updated drivers mentioning products, etc. There is some faith needed, such as assuming that Intel will produce a CPU on Intel 3. Thus, I assume that when Intel ramp's up Intel 3 in H2'2023 that there is likely to be a CPU using it in 2024. I don't think it is that much of a stretch of what Intel has stated publicly to assume that. If Intel's timeline slips, the assumption will be wrong, but we can't know until closer to the date.
If we go fully into rumor mode, then we can speculate about more precise details. For example, this tweet hints at Raptor lake in Q3'22. But that is just pure rumor and thus, should not be taken seriously yet. It does fit somewhat within Intel's annual cadence goal, but it is just rumor.