Without turning this into an ARM thread, respectfully, you are wrong. For example, I have an entire library of more than 2,000 games on steam that do not run on ARM platforms. PC Gaming is a 50 billion dollar market. I have numerous productivity tools that are Windows only. MANY of us out there that use our computers to make money rely on x86 (either Windows or Linux) to get our jobs done. Just because a small subset of individuals use Chromebooks and some productivity folks use Macs does not mean that ARM is taking over. If ARM were taking over, Intel wouldn't be the largest maker of high-performance processors out there and AMD wouldn't be doubling revenue every single year. You can talk about upcoming products all you want, but until ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market, it is going nowhere. It can't do that until a solution faster that the M1 is developed and made available along with a flexible, modular platform that runs Windows and Linux. Do you think that many of us here, all DIY folks, would stop being DIY folks and start buying cheapo ARM pre-builts one day? Do you think that suddenly the gaming industry is going to switch to ARM just because it isn't x86? Do you think those studios using 64 core Threadripper systems are going to switch to Macs just because they are ARM?
On a side note, I'm not "against" ARM, but claiming that ARM is going to somehow magically take over a huge x86 market is just pure fantasy.
Let me disagree again with you. I believe that when "ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market" the "war" is almost close to finished, not starting up. All "lock in" properties of the x86 platform will be gone by then as 50% of the PC market is big enough for every publisher to already have converted their new software/games onto having both ARM and x86 versions, and the long tail will be decently served by emulators (Rosetta and its Windows ARM equivalent). Yes you can still get x86 if you want to but they lost almost all their competitive edge.
And AWS, as showed in the graph I linked, switched from ~0% ARM installs to ~49% ARM installs in a single calendar year (and these are existing products). It can go surprisingly quick. Combine this with Oracle/Microsoft dabbling with the Ampere ARM chips and Google reportedly hiring people to design server chips, and things look ready for a quick switch in the future if combined with the quick switch. I'd predict that to happen in the next 3-5 years if Intel+AMD don't consistently deliver competitive products (and even AMD is barely keeping up right now if you look at Ampere benchmarks). Given that designing a new chip takes years, that battle is absolutely something Intel+AMD have to take on *now* even if the first product announcements would only be in 1-2 years.
Of course that is new installs and not existing installs, so customers can clearly still use x86 in the cloud, but new installs is very important for the manufacturer because existing installs doesn't gain them money.
Then switching over to notebooks. Macbooks and Chromebooks already have no lock-in effects, and marketshare data puts them combined at 23.3% of the notebook space in Q4 2020 (
https://www.geekwire.com/2021/chromebooks-outsold-macs-worldwide-2020-cutting-windows-market-share/). That is not a small subset of individuals anymore, but a meaningful group of users. Admittedly most Chromebooks are still x86, but most of them are low-end x86 (Atom-like, where Intel and AMD already have ~0 margin) and that is very competitive between x86 and Mediatek/Qualcomm already.
Then we get to Windows laptops. These will probably take a bit longer, as Microsofts platform compatibility software needs some more time to really get there. But once it is there I expect most compatibility issues you quoted being roughly the same scale as the problems Intel had with DRM/anticheat with Alderlake. Yes it will be at a performance cost, but at the low end I think ARM will creep in significantly on pricing and who has the better chip of the day in other aspects (battery, GPU, or even who has the compatibility with cheaper other components in the laptop). I see this maybe working its way through the next 6-10 years.
That should also get the ball rolling on releasing more software on ARM natively which would open the door on more desktops with ARM, probably starting with low-end OEM machines for offices (if offices haven't switched to 100% laptops by that time).
Of course my story here can be significantly biased towards ARM, but especially cloud-side I really see the writing on the wall and it is going to be a really hard fight for Intel and AMD as there is lots to be gained from vertical integration.