Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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andermans

Member
Sep 11, 2020
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Regarding ARL vs LNL performance expectations according to the reddit post that Curmudgeon666 captured. One key point on the description of ARL would be the leading sentence, "Will feature an updated compute tile." If you take this to literally mean that ARL is the MTL design with just the compute tile swapped the performance projections make a bit more sense. It would by far be the fastest option for Intel to get the new core design to market, but it could leave a fair bit of performance on the table for LNL to extract. (In addition to the process node advantage for LNL, of course.)

I wonder what that would mean for the 384 EU iGPU leaks for ARL. Would the iGPU be in the compute tile?
 

eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,051
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You can't have a truce without a fight. Intel and AMD are on the same team: them vs ARM.
ARM, thus far, is still irrelevant. Maybe in 3 years? (longer than that for any type of desktop penetration)
Apple is way ahead in IPC. If that "lifestyle company" memo was any indication then Intel is targeting high IPC. Apple having 2x IPC of present Intel CPUs by late 2025 doesn't seem impossible. Even if they're confident Apple won't be willing to clock as high, Intel need massive increases. 1.5x at least.
Intel doesn't care about Apple. The world STILL does not run-on Macs. Apple doesn't even have a server product.
Great. I will be happy to be dead wrong on this one. It will be interesting to see how wide and smart these cores can become.
I'd rather see Intel build and expand on Atom and phase out Core altogether. Core is power hungry.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
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ARM, thus far, is still irrelevant. Maybe in 3 years? (longer than that for any type of desktop penetration)
Irrelevant for desktops, yes. But desktops are slowly dying off. I know lots of people who haven't touched a desktop in years and have switched entirely to phones. ARM is much bigger for just about any other type of use case though.
 
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Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
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I wonder what that would mean for the 384 EU iGPU leaks for ARL. Would the iGPU be in the compute tile?
Same concept as with the compute tile could easily apply here. Keep the fundamental SoC architecture the same and simply swap the X-EU graphics tile for a new Y-EU graphics tile. The leaks regarding MTL already indicate this capability as it is said to span from 96-192 EU I believe?
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Intel doesn't care about Apple.
Really think that Gelsinger memo disproves your notion. They care and would very much like to compete well against Apple. Intel knows what happens if you end up relegated to "big iron".
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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I'd rather see Intel build and expand on Atom and phase out Core altogether. Core is power hungry.

All in good time. Lots of apps still need the big cores. Alder Lake is the first step in the transition. Hopefully programmers will start to make use of the E cores.
 

eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,051
4,276
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Irrelevant for desktops, yes. But desktops are slowly dying off. I know lots of people who haven't touched a desktop in years and have switched entirely to phones. ARM is much bigger for just about any other type of use case though.
Doubt. https://images.anandtech.com/doci/16640/Neoverse_Intro_10.png

Desktop will indeed take a while, but ARM Chromebooks & Macbooks are totally a thing and ARM Windows is trying with the few Qualcomm based laptops.

Without turning this into an ARM thread, respectfully, you are wrong. For example, I have an entire library of more than 2,000 games on steam that do not run on ARM platforms. PC Gaming is a 50 billion dollar market. I have numerous productivity tools that are Windows only. MANY of us out there that use our computers to make money rely on x86 (either Windows or Linux) to get our jobs done. Just because a small subset of individuals use Chromebooks and some productivity folks use Macs does not mean that ARM is taking over. If ARM were taking over, Intel wouldn't be the largest maker of high-performance processors out there and AMD wouldn't be doubling revenue every single year. You can talk about upcoming products all you want, but until ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market, it is going nowhere. It can't do that until a solution faster that the M1 is developed and made available along with a flexible, modular platform that runs Windows and Linux. Do you think that many of us here, all DIY folks, would stop being DIY folks and start buying cheapo ARM pre-builts one day? Do you think that suddenly the gaming industry is going to switch to ARM just because it isn't x86? Do you think those studios using 64 core Threadripper systems are going to switch to Macs just because they are ARM?

On a side note, I'm not "against" ARM, but claiming that ARM is going to somehow magically take over a huge x86 market is just pure fantasy.
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,271
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Without turning this into an ARM thread, respectfully, you are wrong. For example, I have an entire library of more than 2,000 games on steam that do not run on ARM platforms. PC Gaming is a 50 billion dollar market. I have numerous productivity tools that are Windows only. MANY of us out there that use our computers to make money rely on x86 (either Windows or Linux) to get our jobs done. Just because a small subset of individuals use Chromebooks and some productivity folks use Macs does not mean that ARM is taking over. If ARM were taking over, Intel wouldn't be the largest maker of high-performance processors out there and AMD wouldn't be doubling revenue every single year. You can talk about upcoming products all you want, but until ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market, it is going nowhere. It can't do that until a solution faster that the M1 is developed and made available along with a flexible, modular platform that runs Windows and Linux. Do you think that many of us here, all DIY folks, would stop being DIY folks and start buying cheapo ARM pre-builts one day? Do you think that suddenly the gaming industry is going to switch to ARM just because it isn't x86? Do you think those studios using 64 core Threadripper systems are going to switch to Macs just because they are ARM?

On a side note, I'm not "against" ARM, but claiming that ARM is going to somehow magically take over a huge x86 market is just pure fantasy.

Don't you worry, Motorola still makes 68k parts to power dinosaur tech, just like your current software will be in a decade. Intel's path to a trillion dollar market cap is clear: DIY gamers and software that is not important enough to be rebuilt for other platforms.
 

Exist50

Platinum Member
Aug 18, 2016
2,452
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All in good time. Lots of apps still need the big cores. Alder Lake is the first step in the transition. Hopefully programmers will start to make use of the E cores.
There will always be software that benefits from stronger MT performance, so some sort of "big core" isn't going anywhere. Though Atom's performance trajectory has it intercepting Core within the decade, so something will have to change.
 
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eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,051
4,276
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Don't you worry, Motorola still makes 68k parts to power dinosaur tech, just like your current software will be in a decade. Intel's path to a trillion dollar market cap is clear: DIY gamers and software that is not important enough to be rebuilt for other platforms.

I keep you blocked, but I knew you were going to reply so I clicked the dreaded link to show your replies.

Do you not understand it takes a multi-billion or trillion dollar company a decade to develop a new architecture? A decade.

That is for a company with near unlimited financial resources. For these small startups with only a few million in revenue and maybe 100 million in investor finanacing? lol.

The 68K was released in 1979, and guess who a big consumer of it was? Apple. It never really reached mainstream compared to the Intel 8088/8086. Guess who made a bad bet? Apple. Let us talk about their move to RISC after…

The only other thing I will bring up is logistics.

Done with this topic. This is not the thread. You can think what you want, but history and the future will show how things play out. If you think x86 won’t exist in the decade I encourage you to short both Intel and AMD stock, as I own a ton of each and buy more regularly.
 
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dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,271
917
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I keep you blocked, but I knew you were going to reply so I clicked the dreaded link to show your replies.

Do you not understand it takes a multi-billion or trillion dollar company a decade to develop a new architecture? A decade.

That is for a company with near unlimited financial resources. For these small startups with only a few million in revenue and maybe 100 million in investor finanacing? lol.

The 68K was released in 1979, and guess who a big consumer of it was? Apple. It never really reached mainstream compared to the Intel 8088/8086. Guess who made a bad bet? Apple. Let us talk about their move to RISC after…

The only other thing I will bring up is logistics.

Done with this topic. This is not the thread. You can think what you want, but history and the future will show how things play out. If you think x86 won’t exist in the decade I encourage you to short both Intel and AMD stock, as I own a ton of each and buy more regularly.

Heh, besides not knowing anything about silicon engineering, you also have no clue on tech history either. Anyone with a basic knowledge of how the Wintel monopoly came to dominate computing knows Wintel is dead, and more importantly, that the individual advantages that MS and Intel had to keep Wintel on top are all dead. Yet you are still banking on those advantages to keep the momentum going.

But keep playing your 2000 steam games, your kind will surely power x86 to a glorious eternal future. LOL. By the way, the mobile gaming market was ~2x the PC gaming market by revenue in 2020, and you confused gaming revenue with gaming hardware revenue. Good one.
 
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eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,051
4,276
136
There will always be software that benefits from stronger MT performance, so some sort of "big core" isn't going anywhere. Though Atom's performance trajectory has it intercepting Core within the decade, so something will have to change.

Originally my fear would have been that they would hold back improvements to Atom in order to not make core look bad. However, with Intel having to compete? Who knows. I do know that if I were in charge of things over at Intel, I'd be focusing on replacing Core with Atom. Maybe create an awesome spinoff and give it a whizbang new name like they did with 'Core' vs. 'Pentium'. They are overdue for a name change anyway.

What I do know is that Zen 4, despite Intel's quicker cadence, is going to be a major thorn for Intel. Zen 4 is very likely to be well over twice as fast as Zen 1.
 

Exist50

Platinum Member
Aug 18, 2016
2,452
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Originally my fear would have been that they would hold back improvements to Atom in order to not make core look bad. However, with Intel having to compete? Who knows. I do know that if I were in charge of things over at Intel, I'd be focusing on replacing Core with Atom. Maybe create an awesome spinoff and give it a whizbang new name like they did with 'Core' vs. 'Pentium'. They are overdue for a name change anyway.

What I do know is that Zen 4, despite Intel's quicker cadence, is going to be a major thorn for Intel. Zen 4 is very likely to be well over twice as fast as Zen 1.
I think the politics at Intel would never allow the Core team to accept Atom as a replacement, even if that were the sensible thing to do. Too much pride. I've even heard that some at the company have complained about Atom's success, as it makes positioning vs the big core more confusing.

So I think they have to make a decision. Do they believe Core can get back on track? In that case, they should keep Atom focused on throughput efficiency, even if that means sacrificing performance. If not, they should push it hard to replace Core ASAP, consequences be damned. Maybe give the Core team a few years to reinvent themselves. Both scenarios ignore Royal, but it's a bigger existential threat to Core than Atom.

And yeah, Zen 4 is going to be awesome. Not convinced about some of the IPC rumors floating around, but I think it'll have some surprises in store with clock speed.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Intel can always chase their 10 GHz dream. Maybe they should create another team on the side for that. Pamper them a bit. And especially let them be fresh graduates willing to work their asses off to do the impossible. They might be able to pull it off in 500W or so. Too much? We already have 280W CPUs. It's not like gamers are doing any less to contribute to global warming. And the damn miners also want our climate to go to hell. Might as well let gamers get in on the action too.

And I know how the gamers can cool the 10 GHz CPU. Just put the CPU chassis underground with a hatch for access and a control panel with the various ports. Even PCIe riser slots on the control panel are possible. They will rarely need to see the chassis. Problem solved. The hot air can be vented out to somewhere else, probably outside like we do with air conditioners.
 

andermans

Member
Sep 11, 2020
151
153
76
Without turning this into an ARM thread, respectfully, you are wrong. For example, I have an entire library of more than 2,000 games on steam that do not run on ARM platforms. PC Gaming is a 50 billion dollar market. I have numerous productivity tools that are Windows only. MANY of us out there that use our computers to make money rely on x86 (either Windows or Linux) to get our jobs done. Just because a small subset of individuals use Chromebooks and some productivity folks use Macs does not mean that ARM is taking over. If ARM were taking over, Intel wouldn't be the largest maker of high-performance processors out there and AMD wouldn't be doubling revenue every single year. You can talk about upcoming products all you want, but until ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market, it is going nowhere. It can't do that until a solution faster that the M1 is developed and made available along with a flexible, modular platform that runs Windows and Linux. Do you think that many of us here, all DIY folks, would stop being DIY folks and start buying cheapo ARM pre-builts one day? Do you think that suddenly the gaming industry is going to switch to ARM just because it isn't x86? Do you think those studios using 64 core Threadripper systems are going to switch to Macs just because they are ARM?

On a side note, I'm not "against" ARM, but claiming that ARM is going to somehow magically take over a huge x86 market is just pure fantasy.

Let me disagree again with you. I believe that when "ARM can penetrate the majority of the PC market" the "war" is almost close to finished, not starting up. All "lock in" properties of the x86 platform will be gone by then as 50% of the PC market is big enough for every publisher to already have converted their new software/games onto having both ARM and x86 versions, and the long tail will be decently served by emulators (Rosetta and its Windows ARM equivalent). Yes you can still get x86 if you want to but they lost almost all their competitive edge.

And AWS, as showed in the graph I linked, switched from ~0% ARM installs to ~49% ARM installs in a single calendar year (and these are existing products). It can go surprisingly quick. Combine this with Oracle/Microsoft dabbling with the Ampere ARM chips and Google reportedly hiring people to design server chips, and things look ready for a quick switch in the future if combined with the quick switch. I'd predict that to happen in the next 3-5 years if Intel+AMD don't consistently deliver competitive products (and even AMD is barely keeping up right now if you look at Ampere benchmarks). Given that designing a new chip takes years, that battle is absolutely something Intel+AMD have to take on *now* even if the first product announcements would only be in 1-2 years.

Of course that is new installs and not existing installs, so customers can clearly still use x86 in the cloud, but new installs is very important for the manufacturer because existing installs doesn't gain them money.

Then switching over to notebooks. Macbooks and Chromebooks already have no lock-in effects, and marketshare data puts them combined at 23.3% of the notebook space in Q4 2020 (https://www.geekwire.com/2021/chromebooks-outsold-macs-worldwide-2020-cutting-windows-market-share/). That is not a small subset of individuals anymore, but a meaningful group of users. Admittedly most Chromebooks are still x86, but most of them are low-end x86 (Atom-like, where Intel and AMD already have ~0 margin) and that is very competitive between x86 and Mediatek/Qualcomm already.

Then we get to Windows laptops. These will probably take a bit longer, as Microsofts platform compatibility software needs some more time to really get there. But once it is there I expect most compatibility issues you quoted being roughly the same scale as the problems Intel had with DRM/anticheat with Alderlake. Yes it will be at a performance cost, but at the low end I think ARM will creep in significantly on pricing and who has the better chip of the day in other aspects (battery, GPU, or even who has the compatibility with cheaper other components in the laptop). I see this maybe working its way through the next 6-10 years.

That should also get the ball rolling on releasing more software on ARM natively which would open the door on more desktops with ARM, probably starting with low-end OEM machines for offices (if offices haven't switched to 100% laptops by that time).

Of course my story here can be significantly biased towards ARM, but especially cloud-side I really see the writing on the wall and it is going to be a really hard fight for Intel and AMD as there is lots to be gained from vertical integration.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,627
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On a side note, I'm not "against" ARM, but claiming that ARM is going to somehow magically take over a huge x86 market is just pure fantasy.
You missed my point. ARM is not going to take over x86. Never will happen. No one is going to ever suddenly switch to ARM.

My first point is that x86 is slowly dying off. There is no need for ARM to take over x86 as it will just die on its own. Neither AMD nor Intel are doing well in the segments that are replacing it. Sure, AMD and Intel can have a banner year in the middle of a pandemic and chip shortages. That has nothing to do with the long-term trends: ARM sales are going up 10x a decade. Doing well for a few years does not mean that AMD and Intel are winning the war. Your focus is way too short-term.

My second point: as long as people frame it as AMD vs Intel, then AMD and Intel will both lose the war. Infighting and overlooking the real long-term problems doesn't help.
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,375
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You missed my point. ARM is not going to take over x86. Never will happen. No one is going to ever suddenly switch to ARM.

My first point is that x86 is slowly dying off. There is no need for ARM to take over x86 as it will just die on its own. Neither AMD nor Intel are doing well in the segments that are replacing it. Sure, AMD and Intel can have a banner year in the middle of a pandemic and chip shortages. That has nothing to do with the long-term trends: ARM sales are going up 10x a decade. Doing well for a few years does not mean that AMD and Intel are winning the war. Your focus is way too short-term.

My second point: as long as people frame it as AMD vs Intel, then AMD and Intel will both lose the war. Infighting and overlooking the real long-term problems doesn't help.

Are you suggesting Windows dies off with x86 or ARM replaces x86 on Windows somehow? I could see ARM replacing x86 driving Windows. Most people don't really care what's under the hood as long as it "goes." Doing away with Windows would be a bigger undertaking. Shoot, there are still lots of businesses running Windows XP.

If ARM has the performance, efficiency, and pricing to displace x86 on Windows I have absolutely no problem with that.

I think the politics at Intel would never allow the Core team to accept Atom as a replacement, even if that were the sensible thing to do. Too much pride. I've even heard that some at the company have complained about Atom's success, as it makes positioning vs the big core more confusing.

So I think they have to make a decision. Do they believe Core can get back on track? In that case, they should keep Atom focused on throughput efficiency, even if that means sacrificing performance. If not, they should push it hard to replace Core ASAP, consequences be damned. Maybe give the Core team a few years to reinvent themselves. Both scenarios ignore Royal, but it's a bigger existential threat to Core than Atom.

And yeah, Zen 4 is going to be awesome. Not convinced about some of the IPC rumors floating around, but I think it'll have some surprises in store with clock speed.

The power efficiency is actually quite good. It's the area efficiency that is more troublesome when compared to Gracemont. That being said there are lots of applications that need the strong Golden Cove compute, even if they just kept 4 of them. I think 4+24 would be a beast of a chip. Even at 4.5/3.6 it would do 30,000 in Cinebench R23 MT on Intel 7.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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It's been a long time since most anyone actually cared about what was inside of their computer or mobile device. WE care because we are passionate about technology. Some gamers care because they understand the diffevents. Big corporate purchases care that it does what they need it to do, but not about the details inside the box.

The percentage of people that actually care about x86 vs. Arm isn't much larger than the reddit and internet forum community. If my job tomorrow showed up with a bunch of ARM based desktops and told me to put them out, I'd make it happen and none of our users would even notice the difference as long as it worked fir their job functions. Many of them are actually performing most of their functions on iPad, Samsung and Apple phones, and a handful of chromebooks in a prototype office. Most of our programs have migrated to web based, cloud served platforms accessed via web browser.

90+% of the actual processor and storage activity on our desktops is a combination of our AV programs scanning things and our auditing packages indexing and cataloging things. None of that cares about x86 vs arm.

You know who does care? The people responsible for paying the electricity bill.
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,375
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CPU's...

Performance, Price, Power Efficiency.
Pick two, as the saying goes. You can't have all three at the same time.

Performance and efficiency, 5950X, but you're gonna pay in $.

Performance and price, 12900K, but you're gonna pay in Joules.

Power efficiency and price, 5600X, but you ain't gonna have the performance.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,627
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Are you suggesting Windows dies off with x86 or ARM replaces x86 on Windows somehow?
Windows will slowly die off too. I'm not talking this decade. Some computers will run x86 and Windows for many decades to come. But, they are becoming a smaller and smaller fraction of the time that people spend with technology.

I'm a tech enthusiast and my home purchases have been roughly 3:1 ARM vs x86 in the last decade. At work, the instruments that I design and program have been about 6:1 ARM vs x86. Thinking about some people in my wife's family, they are maybe 20:0 ARM vs x86 in the last decade.

With cloud power, so many people can do all their tasks now on a low powered terminal, laptop, tablet, phone, etc. The argument for powerful chips in desktops just is getting weaker and weaker. The server space is dominated by x86 right now. But even that could begin to change if the focus stays on AMD vs Intel.
 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,010
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How many of those devices would have existed in the first place if there were no ARM? Some of those markets would have never gotten off the ground if they were stuck trying to put an x86 chip (especially what existed at the time) in those products. x86 not dominating at the same levels it has historically doesn't mean it's on the way out anytime soon. It's even found new markets (e.g. consoles) where it wasn't previously used so it's not a case of it strictly losing ground.
 

Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,590
724
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Since we're there a few points

As much as ARM flexes its compute power in SPEC and compiling, it often falls short in transactions, database, java and the like. It has a long way to go to make ubiquity.

Peripherals. It's only been a year since you can find any ARM product with some sort of PCI-E and when you do you have to jump through hoops to get things to work. (just watch Jeff Geering)

It has taken linux years to get to the point where they can almost compete in accelerated games and they still fall way short. Just watch the linux daily driver challenge at LinusTT. (good job Luke) Custom solutions work but if you add both linux and ARM to the equation you get a convolution of issues that existing platforms just don't have to solve.

Ecosystems drive technology. ARM has a robust custom market where you can build niche solutions for exact targets. This is both a curse and a blessing. The more products add in board producers have to ensure compatibility with, the less likely they are to cover the whole ecosystem. By shear number, custom producers of ARM products can't validate all add in boards. Equally add in board producers can't validate all boards to ARM producers. Yes there will be inroads, but that's a far cry from taking over the market.
 
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LightningZ71

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Mar 10, 2017
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Which is Apple's current strength and focus, and AMD'S greatest experience: APUs
Apple is moving away from add in cards. AMD has, for years, made products that can work just fine with nothing more than USB ports. Even Intel, for all their desktop power, has been making processors that are largely SoCs (and essentially packages that function a them in mobile) for a decade now.
As iGPUs have grown in performance, the absolute need for add in GPUs has diminished. Yes, there are high performance gamers that want them, and content creators that need them, but, with the M1pro/max, that's not a requirement for most of the market, outside of servers/HPC. Rembrandt will bring AMD a lot closer to that same level. Alder Lake mobile won't be far behind.

The days of add in cards being essential are passing. USB4/TB is enough for almost every purpose that an add in card exists for in anything but servers. Edge cases like M.2 cards and dGPUs will remain, but SSDs are easy to support. Embeded function units can carry much of the weight of everything else. DDR5 and the future DDR6 will give more than enough bandwidth for APUs to have high performance graphics capabilities.

So, why MUST x86 survive?
 
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