Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
It's likely going to be quite close to the 8700K frequencies. Probably the same single core turbo, and slightly lower all core turbo. Plus the extra cache. It should perform like the 8700K single core and pull nicely ahead of it multi core.

How is it going to go to "8700k frequencies" when they can't rate the base within 800mhz of the 8700k?


It will probably turbo 1 core to 4.7 and otherwise perform substantially worse. Take a look at the overclocks people got on the other 8 core ring bus chips, they are substantially worse than the hex core chips and the clocks generally go down across the board.


Your optimistic outlook will not stand up to reality.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
1,475
136
Are you for real? They can't even manufacture at high volume a tiny mobile SOC with 2 cores CPU, the GPU totally disabled and no improvements in efficiency compared to 14nm. Because yields are terrible now, imagine 1 year before.

Exactly. Intel cannot manufacture 10nm today even if its life depended on it. The problems are not simple. charlie has publicly tweeted there are 3 problems and david schor has agreed that he has heard the same too. This is a nightmare scenario for Intel. If Rome lands by mid-2019 its going to be a bloodbath in servers first followed by client PCs. Lisa Su stated at the recent JP Morgan conference that Zen 2 will launch in servers first and there will be significant volume in 2019. Even if we assume its H2 2019 Intel has no chance if they put 14++ based 28c CSL-SP against 7nm based 64c Rome.By mid 2020 AMD could very well hit its highest server share and be around 30% or even more and will only be limited by fab capacity in terms of how much share they can take. Lisa Su has stated that AMD will reveal Zen 2 manufacturer and performance (i am guessing atleast core count,cache and I/O specs) by year end. We will know by year end when Zen 2 will launch. If I had to guess its early Q3 2019. The question which remains to be answered is where is Rome manufactured - TSMC or GF ?

I think GF will be the manufacturer for Ryzen CPUs and APUs as AMD have certain wafer targets to meet. GF needs to up their game as if AMD take share from Intel they win too. Here is hoping GF can deliver for AMD as they will not get a better opportunity ever to take huge market share in a relatively short span of time.
 

Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
34
30
51
ZEN 2 taped out in 2017 in Dec at the latest.....but possibly as early as mid Oct.......Lisa said the design is complete and they will sample to customers later this year....I take that to mean they have already re-spun the first silicon and are now satisfied with the design. If they sample in Q3/Q4, they could launch in late Q1 IF GF can start volume production by Nov 1 .....if YES, they could launch at the end of Q1......leading the 7nm development at GF is one Paul Agnello who came over with the IBM micro folk.............he is VERY VERY good. I think they play it safe at 12C and follow it up a year or so later with 16C.........at 12C , they can up the all core frequency some while Intel busily lowers theirs.............so what do you think of my power/core theory now?..........how about my no high core 10nm SERVER chips till they get to multi chip theory?......................how about that there AMD!...............once they had the new design, infinity fabric, and a competitive process.............it's just a hop to 32C/64T EPYC1 on 14nm....... a skip to 48C/96T EPYC2 on 7nm early.......and a jump to 64C/128T EPYC 3 on 7nm mature




Exactly. Intel cannot manufacture 10nm today even if its life depended on it. The problems are not simple. charlie has publicly tweeted there are 3 problems and david schor has agreed that he has heard the same too. This is a nightmare scenario for Intel. If Rome lands by mid-2019 its going to be a bloodbath in servers first followed by client PCs. Lisa Su stated at the recent JP Morgan conference that Zen 2 will launch in servers first and there will be significant volume in 2019. Even if we assume its H2 2019 Intel has no chance if they put 14++ based 28c CSL-SP against 7nm based 64c Rome.By mid 2020 AMD could very well hit its highest server share and be around 30% or even more and will only be limited by fab capacity in terms of how much share they can take. Lisa Su has stated that AMD will reveal Zen 2 manufacturer and performance (i am guessing atleast core count,cache and I/O specs) by year end. We will know by year end when Zen 2 will launch. If I had to guess its early Q3 2019. The question which remains to be answered is where is Rome manufactured - TSMC or GF ?

I think GF will be the manufacturer for Ryzen CPUs and APUs as AMD have certain wafer targets to meet. GF needs to up their game as if AMD take share from Intel they win too. Here is hoping GF can deliver for AMD as they will not get a better opportunity ever to take huge market share in a relatively short span of time.
 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
Actually CNL-U is the first officially launched 10nm product, before CNL-Y.

While that's true, Whiskeylake-U is the mass volume successor to current Kabylake-R.

You have to remember there's two distinct -U lines, 28W one called CFL-U, and 15W called KBL-R. KBL-R has a 14nm successor, which means that can't be the early one.

Since they have 10nm volume now(yes, I know its limited), I think its reasonable to expect another small-scale launch to happen H1 based on Icelake. 28W U fits the bill nicely because its rarely used over 15W parts.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
Intel are in desperate need of a something that can compete with AMD's small multichip approach and Infinity Fabric. And that's why they needed Jim Keller.
 
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Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
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30
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I can't believe it's as bad as 2.6GHz all core..........it has to be a chip set/mother board issue................I'd guess with the new (Z390 series) motherboard release, they could reach maybe 3.5GHz all core but probably at at least 110W..........


How is it going to go to "8700k frequencies" when they can't rate the base within 800mhz of the 8700k?


It will probably turbo 1 core to 4.7 and otherwise perform substantially worse. Take a look at the overclocks people got on the other 8 core ring bus chips, they are substantially worse than the hex core chips and the clocks generally go down across the board.


Your optimistic outlook will not stand up to reality.
 
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Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
34
30
51
...that makes sense.......it's a low power part..........2.6GHz all core was too hard to believe..........so when do we see Intel's 8C competitor to AMD 2700X at 3.7GHz all core?



While that's true, Whiskeylake-U is the mass volume successor to current Kabylake-R.

You have to remember there's two distinct -U lines, 28W one called CFL-U, and 15W called KBL-R. KBL-R has a 14nm successor, which means that can't be the early one.

Since they have 10nm volume now(yes, I know its limited), I think its reasonable to expect another small-scale launch to happen H1 based on Icelake. 28W U fits the bill nicely because its rarely used over 15W parts.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
Beemster:

The 2.6GHz 8C part is an Engineering Sample. It won't be something you'll get to buy. Final product will clock higher to make it acceptable as a replacement to the 6 core Coffeelake 8700K. We don't know the clocks, but you should know.
 

Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
34
30
51
...yep...2.6GHz all core can't be right........but they did have to lower all core freq a lot when they went to 6C from 4C......why will it be different going to 8C?...........they both have the 14nm++ device.....Explain

Beemster:

The 2.6GHz 8C part is an Engineering Sample. It won't be something you'll get to buy. Final product will clock higher to make it acceptable as a replacement to the 6 core Coffeelake 8700K. We don't know the clocks, but you should know.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
...yep...2.6GHz all core can't be right........but they did have to lower all core freq a lot when they went to 6C from 4C......why will it be different going to 8C?...........they both have the 14nm++ device.....Explain

You understand what I said right? Ignore 2.6GHz altogether, because Engineering Samples are *not* sold to you. It's a test chip.

They will have to lower the all-core Turbo when going from 6C to 8C, but they can keep the top Turbo clocks same. Running 8 cores require more power.
 
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Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
34
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51
forget turbo.........I understood you PERFECTLY.....it is you who did not understand me..............Intel dropped all core freq. from 4.2GHz on 4 core to 3.7GHz on 6C and still raised the power a bit . Since 8C and 6C both have the 14nm++ device, why do you think they will not have to lower all core freq quite a bit again? What 8C all core freq and power do you predict?.......a number please


You understand what I said right? Ignore 2.6GHz altogether, because Engineering Samples are *not* sold to you. It's a test chip.

They will have to lower the all-core Turbo when going from 6C to 8C, but they can keep the top Turbo clocks same. Running 8 cores require more power.
 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
forget turbo.........I understood you PERFECTLY.....it is you who did not understand me..............Intel dropped all core freq. on 4 core from 4.2GHz to 3.7GHz on 6C and still raised the power a bit . Since 8C and 6C both have the 14nm++ device, why do you think they will not have to lower all core freq again? What 8C all core freq and power do you predict?.......a number please

You are quoting Base frequencies, not all core Turbo. You got it wrong. 4.2GHz on 7700K and 3.7GHz on 8700K is BASE.

7700K can run at 4.4GHz when all 4 cores are active and 8700K can run at 4.3GHz when all 6 cores are active.
 
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Beemster

Member
May 7, 2018
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30
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OK............got it........I was wrong then............so what do you predict for 8 core?....(freq and power).....why did they even bother then with a 6 core if 8 core all core turbo could go higher than 8C all core AMD 2700X?


You are quoting Base frequencies, not all core Turbo. You got it wrong. 4.2GHz on 7700K and 3.7GHz on 8700K is BASE.

7700K can run at 4.4GHz when all 4 cores are active and 8700K can run at 4.3GHz when all 6 cores are active.
 

Tarkin77

Member
Mar 10, 2018
75
163
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OK............got it........I was wrong then............so what do you predict for 8 core?....(freq and power).....why did they even bother then with a 6 core if 8 core all core turbo could go higher than 8C all core AMD 2700X?
I am very sorry, but your ....... are annoying as hell. Would you please stop it? Thank you!

Personal attacks in the tech forums are not allowed.

Daveybrat
AT Moderator
 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
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OK............got it........I was wrong then............so what do you predict for 8 core?....(freq and power).....why did they even bother then with a 6 core if 8 core all core turbo could go higher than 8C all core AMD 2700X?

Only Intel knows.

They went with 6 core because they probably thought it was enough, and/or that was the best they could get out during the short time they had to plan.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
4,172
2,210
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Beemster:

The 2.6GHz 8C part is an Engineering Sample. It won't be something you'll get to buy. Final product will clock higher to make it acceptable as a replacement to the 6 core Coffeelake 8700K. We don't know the clocks, but you should know.


Exactly. Intel 0000 is nothing we can buy in store when it's available, this is ES and nothing more, probably the first running 8C silicon outside of Intel. Last year nobody believed in 4.7 Ghz SC either.


There is another, reported as Coffeelake S 82 this time.

Genuine Intel(R) CPU 0000 @ 1.70GHz (8C 16T 1.7GHz, 8x 256kB L2, 16MB L3)
Intel CoffeeLake S 82 UDIMM RVP
https://mobile.twitter.com/TUM_APISAK/status/998853046003154946
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
Intel are in desperate need of a something that can compete with AMD's small multichip approach and Infinity Fabric. And that's why they needed Jim Keller.

They do... that's what EMIB is, plus the theoretical Feveros/stacked die later. The question is of course how far and diverse the integration goes between all of Intel's products, and that's where Keller comes in.

You probably won't see a Core EMIB product until 2020 at the earliest however.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
Only Intel knows.

They went with 6 core because they probably thought it was enough, and/or that was the best they could get out during the short time they had to plan.
It turned out to be enough.
The scores of the 8 core chip look pretty good even at the ES frequencies.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
We do have what is essentially an 80W TDP 8700K in the Xeon E-2176G.

Why the 8700K is 95W but the Xeon is 80W, I don't know.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
They do... that's what EMIB is, plus the theoretical Feveros/stacked die later. The question is of course how far and diverse the integration goes between all of Intel's products, and that's where Keller comes in.

You probably won't see a Core EMIB product until 2020 at the earliest however.

Yes, what I meant was the integration of all the components, not the Infinity Fabric solution itself (although EMIB is yet to be proven in anything besides GPU to memory communication. It's basically a concept at this point, and no doubt intel are frantically working to get it usable for core to core and package to package communication). It can't be understated enough how badly intel underestimated their competition. Innovate or die. The powers that be chose a few more billion in profit over innovation.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
Yes, what I meant was the integration of all the components, not the Infinity Fabric solution itself (although EMIB is yet to be proven in anything besides GPU to memory communication. .

EMIB is also being used by the FPGA for die<->transceiver. But if you want Core<->Core, Core<->GPU, Core<->FPGA, etc, Intel's not there yet.

Will icelake be mesh or ring bus?.

Could go either way although if it is the mesh it will likely be a lot better on latency.
 

french toast

Senior member
Feb 22, 2017
988
825
136
Genuine Intel(R) CPU 0000 @ 2.60GHz (8C 16T 2.59GHz, 8x 256kB L2, 16MB L3)

....2.6GHz all core????? when AMD is at 3.7GHz all core on 2700X with a likely 2800X in reserve??................can't be that bad....must be a chipset issue......dam them Core cores are power hungry........like I've been pointing out for some time..........the more cores....the harder it bites them........so of course no 10nm SERVER parts till God knows when............got to get to the multichip approach and a new core design
For sure all core turbos will be significantly higher than that for retail, wouldn't be surprised at 3.0ghz base though.
You do have a good point though, Intel's ring bus is much more power efficient than AMDs fabric...at low core counts.
Ryzen cores are more power efficient than skylake...making them competitive at moderate core counts despite the infinity fabric power demands.
Intel can't cram 8 skylake cores and clock them past 4ghz without blowing the power budget to pieces, 8 v 8 cores is where AMD pulls ahead in efficiency, even if coffeelake s is certainly going to be faster across the board.

I expect 4.8ghz single core turbo though, 3.0ghz base, 3.8ghz all core turbo...105w.
 

french toast

Senior member
Feb 22, 2017
988
825
136
EMIB is also being used by the FPGA for die<->transceiver. But if you want Core<->Core, Core<->GPU, Core<->FPGA, etc, Intel's not there yet.



Could go either way although if it is the mesh it will likely be a lot better on latency.
Do you mean alot better than skylake X or ring bus latency?
I thought mesh had a latency penalty? Perhaps they can clock it faster?
 
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