Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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Geddagod

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First, as old as they are the 5950x is selling faster on ebay and the like. Mine are going for $360. (with a motherboard for a little more)
I'm sure Intel has no second hand market what so ever as well.
Second, its well known that the 7950x3d is the fastest gaming CPU, so I don't know why you included that quote that the Intel 12900k is the fastest.
Wha...
It was in response to how the "cheap power talking point" claim. I maintain it has a place still, even if it's not very useful in the 14900k vs 7950x3d discussion, (due to there not being any perf advantage for the cost of higher power consumption for those specific skus).
Bringing up ADL vs Zen 3 is an example of the "cheap power talking point" claim being valid at times, due to ADL being well received despite having higher power consumption, because there is a perf advantage.
Just going to add this one time in support of
 
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DAPUNISHER

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As for the rest, I will let Dapunisher respond if he wants to.
Nope, I'm good bro.

Addressing you: I am just really bummed about this launch. Fierce competition means better pricing for all of us. I am leaning toward the layoffs being partially responsible for the decision to handle it this way. Maybe there were people no longer there that could have prevailed upon the decisions makers? People that understand the DIY/retail market and understand how to do a vibe check.

To clarify about competition. I mean it as more than bar graphs. Power, heat, and platform longevity are all part of the equation for DIYers as we tend to be higher information shoppers than the prebuilt crowd. Which I hope goes well for Intel with 14th gen. They released in time for the holidays, so hopefully sales are brisk. We are all tied to desktop, a rapidly shrinking market again in the wake of the WFH sales bonanza. The OEM and S.I. markets are inextricably bound to ours', and I think a rising tide will lift all boats.
 

Markfw

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Nope, I'm good bro.

Addressing you: I am just really bummed about this launch. Fierce competition means better pricing for all of us. I am leaning toward the layoffs being partially responsible for the decision to handle it this way. Maybe there were people no longer there that could have prevailed upon the decisions makers? People that understand the DIY/retail market and understand how to do a vibe check.

To clarify about competition. I mean it as more than bar graphs. Power, heat, and platform longevity are all part of the equation for DIYers as we tend to be higher information shoppers than the prebuilt crowd. Which I hope goes well for Intel with 14th gen. They released in time for the holidays, so hopefully sales are brisk. We are all tied to desktop, a rapidly shrinking market again in the wake of the WFH sales bonanza. The OEM and S.I. markets are inextricably bound to ours', and I think a rising tide will lift all boats.
Actually, and I have said it before, but nobody seems to listen, I welcome the day when Intel can beat AMD in performance and efficiency. I will switch in a heartbeat the day that happens. (like I have multiple time before). This release saddens me also as a waste of silicon and marketing.
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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My conclusion: This launch was a disaster. It did nothing to move the needle, and it further hurts Intel's street cred with the DIY/retail crowd. Those trying to put lipstick on this pig are wasting their time and energy IMhumbleO.

How about a partial credit for effort?

To squeeze the last drop from their 10nm Intel 7 node.
 

DAPUNISHER

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Actually, and I have said it before, but nobody seems to listen, I welcome the day when Intel can beat AMD in performance and efficiency. I will switch in a heartbeat the day that happens. (like I have multiple time before). This release saddens me also as a waste of silicon and marketing.
I liked the suggestion I have read about adding an extra digit to the 13 for retail, or adding an X at the end. Something like that. Maybe call it 14th gen for OEM and S.I.

Keeping it 13 would have been like Ryzen 3800x vs 3800XT. Not going to blow anyone's skirt up, but it's industry standard stuff.

Calling it 14th for prebuilts would have been par for the course too? OEMs had AMD name what was essentially B450 B550A so they could make it look like they had the new shiny. Never forget they sold a 2/4 CPU as a mobile i7. Good marketing should always leave room for these kinds of qualifications. PCMR always enjoys a good laugh at the mass market's expense anyways. That strategy could not have gone as bad as this launch has with our crowd.
 

DAPUNISHER

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How about a partial credit for effort?

To squeeze the last drop from their 10nm Intel 7 node.
I have mad respect for how Intel manages to not get curb stomped given that. It just feels a little like when AMD's GPU division was starting to fall behind Nvidia. Competitive but power and heat became major issues. I don't think Intel will slide like that, but it does invoke that spectre.
 
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H433x0n

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There was no alder lake refresh
I meant RPL-S & RPL-R. These are all based on Golden Cove with Raptor Cove being essentially the same core.
Even Skylake's refreshes got new codenames lol
As for what's going to be improved? Well obviously, not much.
And who said they would purposefully clock ARL-S less than possible? I'm sure they will clock it as far as possible.
Then how do they refresh ARL-S? MLID’s claim about it doesn’t make sense. They’re not going to get another 200-300mhz out of ARL a year later on N3B. It’d be like trying to refresh Zen 3 right now while on the same node - there’s nothing left in it since the process tech hasn’t changed.
 

coercitiv

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There's a reason the 12900k still sold pretty well in comparison to vanilla Zen 3, despite being disproportionately power hungry. The death knells in reviews aren't coming from the outright massive power consumption diff, but the fact that the 7800x3d is often beating the 14900k while consuming so much less power.
Not going to join the power discussion topic as I'm long done trying to make a point there, but I'd like to bring up a few things about your statement, as it seems to me you're trying to view the balance sheet from a favorable angle and omitting historical data in the process.

To this forum's surprise (mine included), high-end Alder Lake did not sell well versus vanilla Zen 3 in the first two quarters after launch. After those two quarters Zen 3D was launched, so it should have been included in the comparison for later dates. We never knew exactly why Alder Lake did not sell well, but here on the forum we speculated around a number of reasons that probably added up:
  • Rocket Lake hurt Intel's mind share badly
  • people saw Alder Lake as an expensive upgrade, as they associated the platform with anomalous DDR5 prices
  • the new socket required new coolers, which strongly limited early build options (important for markets where it takes more time for adapters and new coolers to arrive, at launch I had 1or 2 coolers available - 1 sold out immediately, the other one was a $250+ water rgb madness)
Alder Lake sales picked up later as Intel flooded the market and allowed prices to dip down gradually (which I view as a good thing for us). Even today the discounted 12400 is a good value part considering the price (local market situation may vary).

That being said the 12900K always had a hard time selling against the 5800X3D, and they were contemporary products for most of their lifetime. In terms of gaming performance, the average consumer saw them as ~ equal (based on media coverage at the time).

To summarize, I don't understand why you used a 12900K vs. vanilla Zen 3 as an example for power usage affecting sales. The focus was too narrow and Alder Lake was affected by so many other factors, isolating power to measure it's importance is a futile task without qualitative data (and all we have here is quantitative data).

How about a partial credit for effort?

To squeeze the last drop from their 10nm Intel 7 node.
Partial credit for even more free e-cores, awarded!

One observation not related to the replies above: using a new generation indicator helps sales but hurts Intel's brand image in the long term. They lost mind share in the Comet Lake /Rocket Lake era, and will be in danger of losing more unless Arrow Lake brings a very healthy jump in performance. We'll be able to judge more on this topic when Zen 5 launches and conclude only after ARL launch. (takes time, we can only reliably work with hindsight here)
 

H433x0n

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Aussie Steve made the same observation/ drew the same conclusions both myself (in the Zen 3 builders thread) and TPU did.


Steve was wrong about retail sales. In the US right now Amazon top 25 looks pretty split. Same with Newegg. Most of AMD’s processors in these lists aren’t Zen 4 either (exception being 7800X3D) and have a pretty low ASP.
 

DAPUNISHER

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One observation not related to the replies above: using a new generation indicator helps sales but hurts Intel's brand image in the long term. They lost mind share in the Comet Lake /Rocket Lake era, and will be in danger of losing more unless Arrow Lake brings a very healthy jump in performance. We'll be able to judge more on this topic when Zen 5 launches and conclude only after ARL launch. (takes time, we can only reliably work with hindsight here)
Agreed with the exception that I contend it hurts their mind share here and now. Just a couple of the recent memes on PCMR -




Steve was wrong about retail sales. In the US right now Amazon top 25 looks pretty split. Same with Newegg. Most of AMD’s processors in these lists aren’t Zen 4 either (exception being 7800X3D) and have a pretty low ASP.
You are moving the goalpost. He did not specify Zen 4, he said AMD. He also said top 10, not top 25. He also said for years now. Predating Zen 4.
 

Geddagod

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I welcome the day when Intel can beat AMD in performance and efficiency. I will switch in a heartbeat the day that happens. (like I have multiple time before). This release saddens me also as a waste of silicon and marketing.
the rolling eye emoji might become my most used emoji soon
Also a waste of silicon? Really? I get calling RKL that, it was literally worse in some scenarios than the previous generation, but RPL-R is literally just better binned RPL, and it's not so embarrassingly far behind Zen 4 that it's unusable...
but it's industry standard stuff.
Industry standard stuff... in an industry of 2 competitors for HPC desktop chips?
Calling it 14th for prebuilts would have been par for the course too?
No it wouldn't have.
OEMs had AMD name what was essentially B450 B550A so they could make it look like they had the new shiny.
What? Motherboards, really? Also, comparing AMD and Intel OEM relationships isn't exactly fair as well.
That strategy could not have gone as bad as this launch has with our crowd.
Doubt. Naming the same generation two different names for OEMs vs DIY is confusing and just plain dumb. It would have been seen as way more dishonest as well.
I meant RPL-S & RPL-R. These are all based on Golden Cove with Raptor Cove being essentially the same core.
Intel respun the dies for RPL-S. New node, and slight changes to the core. They didn't with RPL-R. That's the major difference. RPL isn't any where close to a "refresh" like RPL-R.
Then how do they refresh ARL-S? MLID’s claim about it doesn’t make sense. They’re not going to get another 200-300mhz out of ARL a year later on N3B.
They probably could.
It’d be like trying to refresh Zen 3 right now while on the same node - there’s nothing left in it since the process tech hasn’t changed.
With better binning, they prob could. Though, IIRC, Zen 3 was also launched a very mature N7, ARL is launching on a low yielding and relatively new N3.
To this forum's surprise (mine included), high-end Alder Lake did not sell well versus vanilla Zen 3 in the first two quarters after launch. After those two quarters Zen 3D was launched, so it should have been included in the comparison for later dates. We never knew exactly why Alder Lake did not sell well, but here on the forum we speculated around a number of reasons that probably added up:
Pretty sure it sold fine.
Regardless, even if not counting for sales, ADL came in reviews with a much better outlook despite consuming more power than Zen 3. Even if sales didn't exactly translate...
That being said the 12900K always had a hard time selling against the 5800X3D, and they were contemporary products for most of their lifetime. In terms of gaming performance, the average consumer saw them as ~ equal (based on media coverage at the time).
That's because the 5800x3d was esentially as performant as the 12900k at a much lower price. The entire point is comparing higher power consumption with also higher performance.
To summarize, I don't understand why you used a 12900K vs. vanilla Zen 3 as an example for power usage affecting sales.
It's literally the best example to show case that. What would you have used?
Perhaps CML vs Zen 2, which honestly might have worked as well, but that's also drastically more effected by mindshare
The focus was too narrow and Alder Lake was affected by so many other factors, isolating power to measure it's importance is a futile task without qualitative data (and all we have here is quantitative data).
Even if I do drop the sales argument , it's pretty obvious that ADL was much better received than something like RPL-R, due to the fact that even if it consumed more power, it had more performance, just looking at reviews.
Also, ADL selling well despite higher mobo/memory costs is actually even better proof for power being less of a concern for consumers if performance is higher, since none of the factors that contribute to ADL's sales are actively giving it an advantage vs Zen 3.
Those "other factors" you mention just strengthen the case for consumer's ignoring power when performance is relevant
They lost mind share in the Comet Lake /Rocket Lake era,
In DIY, small potatoes
and will be in danger of losing more unless Arrow Lake brings a very healthy jump in performance.
On the contrary. ARL doesn't need to improve perf, it needs to improve efficiency. The real mind share turner wouldn't be ARL imo, it would be LNL, as that's what the general public would be looking at. No one in the public really thinks Intel lacks perf, but rather it gets too hot, and again, that's because of Apple
 

H433x0n

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On the contrary. ARL doesn't need to improve perf, it needs to improve efficiency. The real mind share turner wouldn't be ARL imo, it would be LNL, as that's what the general public would be looking at. No one in the public really thinks Intel lacks perf, but rather it gets too hot, and again, that's because of Apple
Doesn’t this go against your argument?

I think there’s a good chance ARL could be more efficient than Zen 5 but less performant. I don’t get how you think that situation would be more favorable to the current status quo.
 

Geddagod

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Doesn’t this go against your argument?
My argument that consumers don't really care about power as long as the performance is sizable as well? That's for DIY.
I thought I made this clear, this statement here:
On the contrary. ARL doesn't need to improve perf, it needs to improve efficiency. The real mind share turner wouldn't be ARL imo, it would be LNL, as that's what the general public would be looking at. No one in the public really thinks Intel lacks perf, but rather it gets too hot, and again, that's because of Apple
was in specific reference to general public mindshare, not DIY. Which is why I said "LNL" and not "ARL".
Also, I think Intel is going to gain a small PR win if ARL ends up being more efficient than Zen 5, though it prob won't help sales (as I still believe that perf is of greater concern there). The reason for that being is Intel has lost in perf/watt so long in desktop, it would finally be a small PR win. Though again, I don't think that will translate really well into sales.

LNL being more efficient in comparison to Apple/AMD is going to help public mindshare because the general public thinks Intel runs too hot, or is too power hungry, not really because of desktop, but because of statements from Apple, and tbh prob their own personal experiences with Intel laptops.
ARL being more efficient than Zen 5 honestly might help mindshare a bit in DIY as well, because of Intel's long reputation of being so inefficient, but
if Zen 5 is more performant, even if Intel's mindshare with DIY improves a bit, I'm willing to bet most people would go ahead and buy Zen 5. Just because there's a small PR win doesn't necessarily mean it's going to move sales.

If lets say Zen 5 is more efficient than ARL, and performs worse than ARL, then AMD's DIY mindshare prob won't move much, because of AMD's reputation in the DIY space for being very energy conscious already. It prob also won't move as many sales.
As for the general public mindshare in this scenario, well AMD's mindshare is miniscule lol.

Of course, both of these scenarios are also to be taken iso cost and other external factors.
 

Geddagod

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I think there’s a good chance ARL could be more efficient than Zen 5 but less performant.
Ye, I agree
Doesn’t this go against your argument?

I think there’s a good chance ARL could be more efficient than Zen 5 but less performant. I don’t get how you think that situation would be more favorable to the current status quo.
Overall, in terms of what consumers will go out an buy? I don't think it's going to be more favorable to the current status quo.
As a PR move, in the DIY space, prob a small win. In the general public space, if they start matching Apple in laptops and such, prob actually a pretty decent win there. In the general public space, that will prob start helping getting them back some sales which they lost to Apple as well. But that role is really delegated to LNL, not ARL, which is why I brought up LNL originally.
 

coercitiv

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On the contrary. ARL doesn't need to improve perf, it needs to improve efficiency.
You spent several lengthy posts arguing against power affecting consumer interest for Intel CPUs, and now you conclude ARL needs to lower power? Anyway, I tried to illustrate my point as well as I could, I'll leave the discussion for the more active participants.

Agreed with the exception that I contend it hurts their mind share here and now. Just a couple of the recent memes on PCMR -
Maybe my wording wasn't the best, I was thinking first about the duration when I said "long term". The starting point may very well be now, and I won't speculate on the intensity. I'd rather observe the effect in the next 1-2 years.
 

DAPUNISHER

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That changes hour to hour. Typically, 2-3 out of top 10 are Intel at both Amazon and Newegg.

But Zen 3 is still dominating DIY market (except 7800x3d),
There is going to be a lot of copium getting huffed for months to come. This is what Amazon's top 10 looks like now. You know, by far the biggest retailer in N.A..


Happy to see at least one 14th gen in there. Not a single 14th gen in the top 20 at Newegg at the moment. I say good for Intel that they are moving some of their higher ASP CPUs. Wish the margins were better than what the financials indicate, and the reviewers opine about.

 

Geddagod

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You spent several lengthy posts arguing against power affecting consumer interest for Intel CPUs,
Yes, in terms of what consumers will go out and buy
and now you conclude ARL needs to lower power?
Specifically for mindshare, which is what you were talking about in that last paragraph. And I actually amended, in that specific comment itself, that LNL is going to be the one to look out for, not as much with ARL. With the general public becoming ever increasingly aware of Intel's high power consumption, releasing an extremely energy efficient processor would help negate that effect.
Even in DIY, while it prob won't push sales, it would once again improve the PR of Intel- and help reduce the DIY communities thinking that Intel can't release efficient processors and compete with AMD in that metric. And for good reason too- they haven't been doing that very well recently, regardless that line of thinking does exist and is very common.
Both DIY and the general public are well aware of Intel being able to release high performance processors. The stigma is them using 300 watts to do so. Realistically, if Intel wanted to improve their PR - not their sales- ARL winning in efficiency is arguably more important than beating AMD Zen 5 in out right performance.
 
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Realistically, if Intel wanted to improve their PR - not their sales- ARL winning in efficiency is arguably more important than beating AMD Zen 5 in out right performance.
Intel's PR is currently focused on GHz. Why would they suddenly change that with ARL? If they can push ARL even 100 MHz higher than Zen 5, they will do it regardless of power and trumpet that fact.
 
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