Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[JasonLD]

Seems like Intel might use 10nm only on low power mobile and server CPUs and keeps using 14nm for Client desktop CPUs until 7nm, due to the high cost and margins.

 

[.vodka]

I don't see how Intel intends to be competitive with a 10 core Skylake v6/v7 (I've lost count) vs Zen2 throughout 2019/2020.

It's a train wreck. Waiting until EUV tools arrive to save the day for their 7nm process will be *painful*, by that time AMD will be manufacturing Zen3/Zen4 on TSMC's next equivalent node. I don't know.

It's quite the bet.

 

[Eddward]

I bet Rocket Lake is 14nm Skylake core as well. There is no reason to think otherwise. Simple math. Anything newer was developed for 10nm and Intel is reluctant to port it for the past several years.
Interesting point is what clocks and TDP will have Rocket or even Comet Lake 8/10 core CPUs.

 

[Kaloi48]

This part matches an earlier leak from a Chinese forum, which lends some credibility to the leaked roadmap.

 

[Ajay]

Seems like Intel might use 10nm only on low power mobile and server CPUs and keeps using 14nm for Client desktop CPUs until 7nm, due to the high cost and margins.

I’m having a hard time believing that Intel will be releasing a 10nm Icelake server cpu. They seem to be struggling with getting out low core count mobile CPUs.

 

[Jan Olšan]

I bet Rocket Lake is 14nm Skylake core as well. There is no reason to think otherwise. Simple math. Anything newer was developed for 10nm and Intel is reluctant to port it for the past several years.
Interesting point is what clocks and TDP will have Rocket or even Comet Lake 8/10 core CPUs.

Actually it seems that reluctance has ended or they had enough time to do the port while the time was too short for kabys and cofees.
The roadmap says that Comet Lake-U finally supports LPDDR4, and Rocket Lake-S will add PCI Express 4.0 in 2020-2021. There might be other such features ported like HDMI 2.0. And that opens possibility of GPU/CPU arch. features porting. Granted that is a big task but maybe they could port over just some parts, like Cannon Lake enhancements of CPU core/IPC.

 

[jpiniero]

So I used one of those chip yield calculators... based on that I would put the O/U on Intel's current defect rate for 10 nm at 3.5/sqcm (super awful); and the defect rate when the 8121U launched at 8-9.

 

[Ajay]

So I used one of those chip yield calculators... based on that I would put the O/U on Intel's current defect rate for 10 nm at 3.5/sqcm (super awful); and the defect rate when the 8121U launched at 8-9.

Based on what inputs?

 

[TheGiant]

this is serious stuff
Brian Krzanich should be investigated and whole intel management fired/sanctioned/jailed
serious lying to the crowrd and investors....
we are going back to the age of Prescott pentium 4 the room heater, except the performance which is still top (in Prescott era it was fx9590 of its age)
intel needs the core 2 duo jump
otherwise everyone will dump them very quickly and especially apple...

 

[Dayman1225]

"Improved 10nm factory velocity"
"Icelake 10nm Qual(ification?) Q2"
"Raising 2019 10nm Volume"

This is from Intel's Q1 Presentation.

 

[Yotsugi]

"Icelake 10nm Qual(ification?) Q2"

Yes, should be PRQ.

 

[Dayman1225]

Yes, should be PRQ.

Yeah they clarified in the call - Icelake will be qualifying for production this quarter.

They also commented on the "Factory Velocity" comment which basically meant products are moving through the factory 2x faster (improved cycle time), also the raising volume comment is just more volume of 10nm products this year than they expected.

 

[Yotsugi]

which basically meant products are moving through the factory 2x faster (improved cycle time)

oof

also the raising volume comment is just more volume of 10nm products this year than they expected.

0*20 is still 0.
Until I see the actual products on actual shelves in actual volumes.

 

[coercitiv]

They also commented on the "Factory Velocity" comment which basically meant products are moving through the factory 2x faster (improved cycle time), also the raising volume comment is just more volume of 10nm products this year than they expected.

Fair enough, if you can't increase yields you can still crank up the speed and move more wafers through. It's still low volume, but it's twice™ the low volume.

 

[maddie]

Yeah they clarified in the call - Icelake will be qualifying for production this quarter.

They also commented on the "Factory Velocity" comment which basically meant products are moving through the factory 2x faster (improved cycle time), also the raising volume comment is just more volume of 10nm products this year than they expected.

Think this might backfire, as in taking shortcuts?

If this could always be done fairly easily, why was it never implemented?

Having a little experience in this, 2X throughput with around the same Cap expenditure is HUGE for almost any manufacturer. De-bottlenecking over time should be standard practice. I will remain skeptical on this breakthrough.

 

[Yotsugi]

as in taking shortcuts?

No, making some steps faster.
They use Co and Ru extensively in 10nm, and these are ass for cycle times.

If this could always be done fairly easily, why was it never implemented?

That we don't know.

 

[maddie]

No, making some steps faster.
They use Co and Ru extensively in 10nm, and these are ass for cycle times.

That we don't know.

So possibly 10nm in name only.

 

[Yotsugi]

So possibly 10nm in name only.

No, the very same node, just with new tooling to cut the cycle time on some steps.

 

[exquisitechar]

View attachment 5536
https://tweakers.net/nieuws/151984/...l-in-2021-nog-desktop-cpus-op-14nm-maakt.html

No 10nm Desktop-CPU until 2022? If it's true then... well, RIP Intel.

A sign of Rocket Lake?

 

[Eug]

So the pic says:

4-core Y in 2019 - Amber Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2020 - Comet Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2021 - Tiger Lake 10 nm

However, I saw a different table elsewhere:

4-core Y in 2019 - Amber Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2019 (limited) - Ice Lake 10 nm
4-core Y in 2019 to 2020 - Comet Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2020 - Tiger Lake 10 nm

https://wccftech.com/intel-desktop-mobile-cpu-roadmap-leak-14nm-comet-lake-10nm-ice-lake-tiger-lake/

 

[Hans de Vries]

So the pic says:

4-core Y in 2019 - Amber Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2020 - Comet Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2021 - Tiger Lake 10 nm

However, I saw a different table elsewhere:

4-core Y in 2019 - Amber Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2019 (limited) - Ice Lake 10 nm
4-core Y in 2019 to 2020 - Comet Lake 14 nm
4-core Y in 2020 - Tiger Lake 10 nm

https://wccftech.com/intel-desktop-mobile-cpu-roadmap-leak-14nm-comet-lake-10nm-ice-lake-tiger-lake/

Because there are 2 roadmaps in the latter article: desktop and mobile

 

[coercitiv]

Desktop Roadmap

 

[jpiniero]

Based upon the Corp roadmap, the mainstream Rocket Lake launch is probally before what is on there, perhaps Q1 of 2021.

 

[Eug]

Because there are 2 roadmaps in the latter article: desktop and mobile

OK but then to ask a stupid question:

What is desktop Y series?

 

[Hans de Vries]

OK but then to ask a stupid question:

What is desktop Y series?

There are now 3 client roadmaps, with the one of coercitiv above is actually named 'Desktop' while the WCCF ones are named 'Mobile' and 'Commercial'