Ok I think we got a lot of good info from the latest Intel announcement today, more than people are talking about imo....
First of all, Intel claims ARL and TSMC 3nm are on schedule and not delayed
Intel 18A customer announcement later this year
And the rest of the stuff about nothing being delayed blah blah blah
But what's important is that Pat claimed Intel 20A product ramp is late 2024. This all but confirms, imo, that the schedule is for ARL on Intel 20A to launch early 2025. At best late 2024, but I doubt that.
The distinction here is product ramp. When Intel talks about node ramps, it could mean anything. For example, Intel 4 has been ready to ramp according to Intel since the end of 2022. However when Intel talks about specific products, they usually mean it ramps and launches in ~1H. For example, Alder Lake ramp on Intel 7 was claimed for a 2H 2021 ramp, and launched by the end of 2021. Intel when specifically referring to MTL always talked about a 2H 2023 ramp as well, and they still claim it will launch by the end of 2023.
Another potentially significant detail is that when Pat said ARL product ramp late 2024, meaning it should launch early 2025 most likely, is that he also claims ARL is still on track, so that means there's a really good chance there is a TSMC 3nm version of ARL coming out sometime 2024. Because Intel 20A just sounds like it is not ready.
In short Pat just gave a lot more credence to the ARL dual sourcing on Intel 20A and TSMC 3nm rumors IMO.