Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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Let me ask you this. When do you think Intel 4 will be released? And by released I mean a normal release where you can readily buy parts be they either mobile and/or desktop? Not a Palm Cove paper launch is what I'm saying.

When you do think the next new node release will be and will that be Intel 20A?

Like I outlined before
Intel 4 - late this year with Meteorlake ULP
Intel 3 - Early-mid 2024 Server with GNR and SRF
Intel 20A - sometime very early 2025 with ARL-P

I don't believe it'll take 4 years because 10nm was a genuine screwup, not just reaching for pie-in-the-sky claims that were unrealistic but with a very messed up management team.
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Like I outlined before
Intel 4 - late this year with Meteorlake ULP
Intel 3 - Early-mid 2024 Server with GNR and SRF
Intel 20A - sometime very early 2025 with ARL-P

I don't believe it'll take 4 years because 10nm was a genuine screwup, not just reaching for pie-in-the-sky claims that were unrealistic but with a very messed up management team.

I like your timeline much better than mine. I hope you are correct and I'm wildly overestimating time to market for these new nodes.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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I bet there are people at Intel who have been there for 30+ years who sit around and talk about the old days when they could release parts and new nodes on THEIR schedule and not have to worry about competition (much).

I still vividly remember the first time Intel got shook up. AMD was first to 1GHz with the Athlon and Intel freaked out and released the 1133MHz, which actually was overclocked beyond it's ability and recalled.

 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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@Hulk
Remember, I am still basing my hopes based on Gelsinger's previous history. Yes, the refute is that one man can't do much, but surely one man can do a lot to ruin it, especially someone like a CEO that has so much power.

He hired TWELVE THOUSAND people, mostly in engineering positions. And lot of his high ranking executives have good reputation too. Lead designer of the 486 chip that saved the company while the rest were thinking the i960 was the future. Youngest CTO.

Of course, past performance isn't necessarily an indication of future. I am reminded of an IBM sales executive that was super at her job. Then she got promoted and she sucked. So there's a limit to where you belong. CEO of Intel is far greater than his previous roles.

But then again he was absolutely fantastic in his previous roles. And we're also faced with possibly a macroeconomic fault greater than the one 15 years ago.

I bet there are people at Intel who have been there for 30+ years who sit around and talk about the old days when they could release parts and new nodes on THEIR schedule and not have to worry about competition (much).

The old adage that Intel's sucky designs were made up by the process team seems to be true.

Maybe it's better the design side being sold off and future Intel being a foundry house rather than the other way around. Why would you sell the good side, isn't that the opposite of what normal people do?

The point of treating the internal design similar to external foundry according to Mr. Gelsinger is basically accountability. Previously, they had much less of it, because they could rely on the process team to fix their mistakes. Now they are saying they won't do that anymore. You have to get your heads out of your asses and figure out the problems yourself like external customers do. They still have the advantage of being in-house(even things simple as physical proximity which saves time).

However, previous history is previous history. Words are words.
-We're now at 2 years from the time Pat became CEO. Equivalent time for Kraznich was early 2015. Skylake was late 2015.
-Breaking is way easier than fixing it.
-Timeline for average development of a CPU is 3-5 years.

So Meteorlake/Emerald Rapids is when the new management really starts kicking in. We'll see whether they can do the fine balance between fixing the company, keeping the balance sheet healthy, and investing in the future while the macroeconomy declines further.
 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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I still vividly remember the first time Intel got shook up. AMD was first to 1GHz with the Athlon and Intel freaked out and released the 1133MHz, which actually was overclocked beyond it's ability and recalled.

Also remember in 2005 all we worried was about the PC(desktop) side while a tremor was brewing and in early 2007 we got the iPhone. 2006 seemed so good for Intel with Core. The first iPhone released in January 2007, mere 6 months after Conroe/Merom. They released the Atom in 2008. To be honest, Conroe/Merom doesn't look impressive compared to what would come. The iPhone deal would have set fire to Intel's development.

We didn't realize behind the curtains the much praised then-CEO Otellini was saying no to one of the most critical technologies in the market today, the Smartphone. So the bigger picture is WAY different.

(Otellini also fired Gelsinger after the Larrabbee debacle. There's no compassion nor forgiveness in modern business. Your decades of contribution is worth exactly zero. If you read about the history about HP, it used to be different)

Continuing on the discussion of Intel's design team being not the best, the E core team is doing better but the original Atom did not set any records in terms of design. The Out of Order successor was 50% faster per clock while having the same die area and clock potential ISO-process. But 5 years later!*

The start of the Atom should have been earlier in 2005-2006, and the OoOE Atom should have been 2009 at the latest. Back then they were delusional saying that they would keep the total performance between Core and Atom an order of magnitude(that is, 10x) different! Now we're maybe 2x in ST and 2.5-2.7x in MT, accounting for clock and HT.

*There's a lesson to learn in that we don't necessarily thrive when resources are plentiful and/or given to us. Constraints and restrictions and working within it ignites the fire of passion within us and pushes us to be better. Hence why mega corporations with massive cash often start their decline.
 
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Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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We didn't realize behind the curtains the much praised then-CEO Otellini was saying no to one of the most critical technologies in the market today, the Smartphone. So the bigger picture is WAY different.


Jobs talked to Intel because they possessed the best ARM core at the time, but Otellini tried sell him on x86 for the iPhone which he did not want. The appearance of Atom in 2008 means work on it had to have started a few years earlier - probably when they started talking to Jobs so they could claim they would have something suitable for iPhone (though given Atom's release date this would have seriously delayed the iPhone)

By the time Intel sold StrongARM in 2006 any chance of a deal with Apple was already gone. They had probably decided by then they would announce their "x86 everywhere" strategy alongside Atom's announcement, so StrongARM had to go.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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By the time Intel sold StrongARM in 2006 any chance of a deal with Apple was already gone. They had probably decided by then they would announce their "x86 everywhere" strategy alongside Atom's announcement, so StrongARM had to go.

Actually the reveal said Otellini was the one that refused the iPhone because he underestimated the volume and per chip price was too low based on those expectations.

StrongARM also had serious development issues within Intel. The problem with Intel is Intel, not the ISA they are using. They eventually got the system power level low enough to be general competitive, but took until 2012's Medfield, or an entire 3 years after original Silverthorne Atom.

I had a Bonnell based MID. Something like a 5 inch, 1280x720 screen and the battery lasted 4-5 hours with a 23WHr battery. The idle system power drain never went below 3.5W.

I also bought a Clover Trail based Asus Tablet for my mom and that was slow but it lasted 8-10 hours. Later on I had a Dell Venue 8 Pro with Bay Trail and not only it was acceptably fast but with a 16WHr battery and 8-inch screen it lasted 6-9 hours. The system idle drain was only 1.5W even with the screen on. I never saw the screen-on drain go above 3.5W. You would press the power button like on Android Tablets and it would be instantly ready to go.

-Half the power
-1/4 the thickness
-2/3rds the weight despite the size difference

If some form of an Intel chip was in the iPhone or even the iPad the mobile market would have been very, very different.
 
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poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
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There's always some upper-mid level manager who thinks if they were put in charge, they could do just as good a job as Jensen etc. Or someone who wants more autonomy, or just flat out better pay. The trouble is finding someone both willing to move and qualified for the role.
true, but people like Jenson, Steve Jobs and Lisa are one of a kind CEOs. These people know where the industry is heading.

One look at the ARC team and you know its headed for nowhere. They spent months getting DX9 to work properly and the most popular DX9 game CSGO is now getting replaced with CS2 which is vulkan based. CSGO will no longer exist.

I bet you a whole cheese island that Nvidia knew CS2 was coming(After all it was leaked via Nvidia channels). Intel spent hyping up DX9 benchmarks with CSGO as being the primary example, later in 2023 Summer that will will no longer exist.

That is just one example.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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Good lord... Well, Intel wasn't going to let AMD one-up them generation after generation, so might as well try to leap frog AMD with an even larger socket.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Actually the reveal said Otellini was the one that refused the iPhone because he underestimated the volume and per chip price was too low based on those expectations.


Seems more like they turned each other down. Intel would have been willing to eat the low price if Apple was willing to use x86 chips, because they would have figured there will eventually be a much larger non-Apple smartphone market. Look at the billions in "marketing development" giveaways they did with Atom a few years later trying and failing to gain a foothold in the Android & Windows Phone market.

Samsung didn't need the 60%+ gross margins that Intel was used to from their x86 monopoly. While Samsung didn't have StrongARM's performance they had their own ARM SoC ready to go, so it was the obvious choice for Apple.
 

nicalandia

Diamond Member
Jan 10, 2019
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Am I the only one who wonders how a high end, pre-production motherboard like this ends up on someone's couch laying on a blanket next to a 2010 Macbook Pro 13" running Windows?
I don't know how Hentai Loving Grown Chinese men get to play with such high tech toys before Americans do.

 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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I bet you a whole cheese island that Nvidia knew CS2 was coming(After all it was leaked via Nvidia channels). Intel spent hyping up DX9 benchmarks with CSGO as being the primary example, later in 2023 Summer that will will no longer exist.

That doesn't mean you can ignore CSGO. And LOT of unmentioned DX9 games got a huge uplift.

CS2 is a good thing for Intel because they do fantastic in recent titles. They are firmly at 3060 Ti/RX 6700 level.

I don't know how Hentai Loving Grown Chinese men get to play with such high tech toys before Americans do.

Perhaps it's the same thought that managers of the Intel graphics group had when releasing the ARC A380 - ignoring the presence of internet and worldwide shipment, thus hoping they would keep quiet.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Didn't they just announce there's no successor to SPR-HBM until "proper" Falcon Shores in 2026+?

Good point, but presumably, the socket will be around for more than 1 generation.

And it is possible that an HBM version of Granite Rapids was still planned at the time the socket was defined.
 

nicalandia

Diamond Member
Jan 10, 2019
3,331
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[372298"]
Didn't they just announce there's no successor to SPR-HBM until "proper" Falcon Shores in 2026+?
[/QUOTE] That socket design was set in stone at the very least two years ago
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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