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blckgrffn

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Hulk

Diamond Member
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I think Intel, which of late has been the proverbial blind squirrel, has finally stumbled on a nut with Battlemage. Whether or not it is competing against 4 year old hardware is irrelevent. What is relevent is that it provides more value and it is available now.

There is a lot of buzz and a lot of OOS (out-of-stock) at vendors, which could be a good or bad indicator for Intel. If initial shipping numbers were small, with a small supply behind the initial shipment, then once again Intel wil have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

But, if they initially shipped good volume with more volume behind it, then things are looking good for the Intel graphics division. Of course the"know how" and technology from Alchemist and Battlemage will invariably trickle down to their iGPU's as well. Note that Intel never beat AMD in the iGPU department until they actually had a viable discrete GPU. It is so much more fun to be a tech enthusiast when the various manufacturers succeed with their products.

Intel has found a soft spot in the GPU market and is pushing on it. If the 750/770 Battlemage parts can do 4k then things will get really interesting.
 
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DigDog

Lifer
Jun 3, 2011
14,066
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- Intel is probably losing money on this product, something they can't really afford anymore.
i swear to god man. this argument is so wrong, i feel stupid even having to hear it.



on a plus note, i have received a ping from the retailer that my card is ready & shipped. i should have it thursday.
(i could have gotten it earlier, but im in morocco enjoying the weather and the ridiculously cheap food)

i have seen the benchmarks, and im fairly satisfied with what i see.
every reasonable person should also expect a post-launch driver improvement that seasoned cards like the 4060 will not be getting; this isnt me hallucinating a performance that isn't there, "just wait and see", but tiny bumps up are almost a given.

i do not have a 1440 monitor, so i am receiving less benefits, but i am very happy with a functional card for that little money.

i noticed that amazon.co.uk has already knocked £20-30 from the 4060, probably because the various vendors are worried of getting stuck with a whole bunch of very expensive bricks.

i currently own a very old, very used rx 590 FatBoy 8gb that the instant it's pushed, it BSODs. it's like a wall, the instant you go above what it can do, you dont see single-digit framerates, it just dies.
i really just want to play the occasional AAA title for s&giggles, and i care far more about the gameplay than the graphics. The kinda guy that turns off bloom, hdr, godrays .. before even starting the game.

and frankly, im just curious to see what a Intel GPU is like. ive had Nv, i had AMD (i liked Nvidia better), now i want to try the new guys.

i just hope stalker 2 and wytchfire work fine.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,936
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i swear to god man. this argument is so wrong, i feel stupid even having to hear it.



on a plus note, i have received a ping from the retailer that my card is ready & shipped. i should have it thursday.
(i could have gotten it earlier, but im in morocco enjoying the weather and the ridiculously cheap food)

i have seen the benchmarks, and im fairly satisfied with what i see.
every reasonable person should also expect a post-launch driver improvement that seasoned cards like the 4060 will not be getting; this isnt me hallucinating a performance that isn't there, "just wait and see", but tiny bumps up are almost a given.

i do not have a 1440 monitor, so i am receiving less benefits, but i am very happy with a functional card for that little money.

i noticed that amazon.co.uk has already knocked £20-30 from the 4060, probably because the various vendors are worried of getting stuck with a whole bunch of very expensive bricks.

i currently own a very old, very used rx 590 FatBoy 8gb that the instant it's pushed, it BSODs. it's like a wall, the instant you go above what it can do, you dont see single-digit framerates, it just dies.
i really just want to play the occasional AAA title for s&giggles, and i care far more about the gameplay than the graphics. The kinda guy that turns off bloom, hdr, godrays .. before even starting the game.

and frankly, im just curious to see what a Intel GPU is like. ive had Nv, i had AMD (i liked Nvidia better), now i want to try the new guys.

i just hope stalker 2 and wytchfire work fine.
Correct. According to the Intel naysayers around here anything Intel ships they will lose money on. Well most people will write they will "loose" money on it, which I guess with twice the "o's" is twice the losses.

Of course Intel has to develop, manufacturer, and actually ship products if it wants to have a hope of surviving. This is a good release. Smaller die area than last gen, better efficiency, and more performant. What's not to ship?
 

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
Super Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
30,379
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New GN vid brings up another great revision; the cooler. I think when my A750 LE is retired from active duty, it's going back in the box and I'll keep it as a collector's item. I used to service laptops and all-in-ones and man do I hate dealing with all of the proprietary and unnecessarily complex designs. Doubt I will every open it to repaste and pad.

 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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When the Intel Board of Directors finds out Intel is buying expensive dies from TSMC and then selling them at loss, they will agree - what Intel stumbled upon is nuts.
AMD's board going nuts as well because they are using TMSC and "loosing" money? Or can everybody except Intel make money with TMSC?

Are you going to tell on them to the BOD? I think someone should in all fairness. You know what they say, if you see something, say something.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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AMD's board going nuts as well because they are using TMSC and "loosing" money? Or can everybody except Intel make money with TMSC?

Are you going to tell on them to the BOD? I think someone should in all fairness. You know what they say, if you see something, say something.

Intel is selling 279 mm2 N5 die size for less money than AMD is selling 204 mm2 N6 die size.

Intel BOM costs are > 50% higher, while selling for less money.

AMD is barely breaking even, so imagine how much Intel graphics division is losing...
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,936
3,367
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Intel is selling 279 mm2 N5 die size for less money than AMD is selling 204 mm2 N6 die size.

Intel BOM costs are > 50% higher, while selling for less money.

AMD is barely breaking even, so imagine how much Intel graphics division is losing...
Is is possible Intel has other production efficiencies AMD does not have or is AMD simply economically more efficient than Intel across the board?
 

Win2012R2

Senior member
Dec 5, 2024
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Intel is selling 279 mm2 N5 die size for less money than AMD is selling 204 mm2 N6 die size.

It's even worse than it looks based on size - N4 wafers that Intel uses are priced at $20k whereas N7/6 are $9500 (Tom's Hardware estimates), plus yields will be different.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
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Is is possible Intel has other production efficiencies AMD does not have or is AMD simply economically more efficient than Intel across the board?
It’s almost like Intel is more desperate than AMD and especially nvidia and so will tolerate a different “investment” into entering the market.

They (Intel) literally said that in a linked interview earlier in the thread. It’s not hyperbole.

Clearly there’s a roadmap at Intel where Foundry pulls back into the relevant range and they can have an active and successful DGPU line so they can be their own client and run capture all those chip margins internally, like the good old days of CPUs.

Pretty sure the future of Intel as we know it depends on a scenario like that becoming reality.
 

ajsdkflsdjfio

Member
Nov 20, 2024
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Intel is selling 279 mm2 N5 die size for less money than AMD is selling 204 mm2 N6 die size.

Intel BOM costs are > 50% higher, while selling for less money.

AMD is barely breaking even, so imagine how much Intel graphics division is losing...
Where do you get the 50% higher from? From rough calculations about die size and N5 vs N6? The die would have to cost twice as much than AMD's die to account for 50% increased BOM cost by itself. Also AMD is not "barely breaking even", if they were barely breaking even based on your calculations for the rx 7600 they'd be losing money on quite a few of their products.

For example, using your analogy of die size, the RX 7700xt has almost 2x the silicon at 350 mm2 with 200 mm of that being on n5 and with the entire architecture using special packaging techniques to get the chips to work together. Yet even with a bigger cooler/heatsink/shroud/4GB more ram/more fans, the card is selling at 400$ compared to the 270 ish of the rx 7600. If the rx 7600 is at barely breakeven(costing ~250$ to produce/sell), then the rx 7700xt would be losing AMD 75-100 dollars for each card they sell.

The BOM and profitability of these products is a lot more than die size and node. Sure intel might actually be losing money on these products even minus R&D but it's not as huge as you claim it might be. Also losing a bit of money to push out another generation to iterate from is just part of the game sometimes especially when you are on generation 2 vs generation 2X from competition. They gain tons of data, experience, and generally pushing out a product gives them another milestone to reach competitiveness
 

QueBert

Lifer
Jan 6, 2002
22,750
980
126
I expected this could happen, the scalping turds are buying them all up and selling them for a hefty markup. $409-600 on Ebay? LOL. While I want one, I want one for MSRP. At $250 it's a killer deal, $400's dumb, and $599's beyond batshit crazy. I see some Acer ones for $599, that's fuckin dumb. As much as I hate scalpers, if there are stupid people who will pay it, I guess that's how business works. I can't imagine people actually buying one for $599, but I've learned to never underestimate stupidity.

I'm imagining someone paying over double retail and being happy. If you have $500 to drop on a B580 you could get an infinitely better card. I hope the scalping dies quickly so I can get one for what it's supposed to cost.
 
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ajsdkflsdjfio

Member
Nov 20, 2024
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It's even worse than it looks based on size - N4 wafers that Intel uses are priced at $20k whereas N7/6 are $9500 (Tom's Hardware estimates), plus yields will be different.
You are making so many assumptions and mistakes in this statement it's hilarious. Arc battlemage uses 5nm not 4nm, and you quote N7/N6 as 9500$ when N7 itself it already listed at 10k with the rx 7600 N6 being more expensive than that, at the same time you pull $20k for N4 price out of thin air. You also Literally jumped two nodes with your assumptions. From (N6 vs N5) to (N7 vs N4), huge difference. Also using your quoted tom's hardware estimates, TSMC N5/N4 is quoted as being close to 15,000 on an article from October 10th of this year and 16K in 2022, where did you get 20k$ from?

TOMS HARDWARE ARTICLE 2022
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Where do you get the 50% higher from? From rough calculations about die size and N5 vs N6? The die would have to cost twice as much than AMD's die to account for 50% increased BOM cost by itself. Also AMD is not "barely breaking even", if they were barely breaking even based on your calculations for the rx 7600 they'd be losing money on quite a few of their products.

For example, using your analogy of die size, the RX 7700xt has almost 2x the silicon at 350 mm2 with 200 mm of that being on n5 and with the entire architecture using special packaging techniques to get the chips to work together. Yet even with a bigger cooler/heatsink/shroud/4GB more ram/more fans, the card is selling at 400$ compared to the 270 ish of the rx 7600. If the rx 7600 is at barely breakeven(costing ~250$ to produce/sell), then the rx 7700xt would be losing AMD 75-100 dollars for each card they sell.

The BOM and profitability of these products is a lot more than die size and node. Sure intel might actually be losing money on these products even minus R&D but it's not as huge as you claim it might be. Also losing a bit of money to push out another generation to iterate from is just part of the game sometimes especially when you are on generation 2 vs generation 2X from competition. They gain tons of data, experience, and generally pushing out a product gives them another milestone to reach competitiveness

- bigger die size: multiply by 1.36x
- more expensive process technology node: multiply by ~1.50x
- lower yields: multiply cost by ~1.05x

And I get 1.36 x 1.5 x 1.05 = 2.14

or +114% higher cost just on the die cost alone and +50% on memory
Other component prices probably comparable.
 

Win2012R2

Senior member
Dec 5, 2024
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at the same time you pull $20k for N4 price out of thin air.

10 July 2024 - "Negotiations with AI and HPC customers, such as Nvidia, suggest these clients can tolerate approximately 10% price hikes for 4nm-class wafers from around $18,000 per wafer to around $20,000 per wafer. As a result, the 4nm and 5nm nodes, primarily used by companies like AMD and Nvidia, are expected to see an 11% blended average selling price (ASP) hike. " Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmc-may-increase-wafer-pricing-by-10-for-2025-report

N6 is continuation of N7 - they stopped making N7, and it's now N6. Same thing going for N5-N4.

One thing is certain - Intel is using much more (at least 50%+) expensive node, and it might easily be 75-100% if the data above is correct.
 
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ajsdkflsdjfio

Member
Nov 20, 2024
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- bigger die size: multiply by 1.36x
- more expensive process technology node: multiply by ~1.50x
- lower yields: multiply cost by ~1.05x

And I get 1.36 x 1.5 x 1.05 = 2.14

or +114% higher cost just on the die cost alone and +50% on memory
Other component prices probably comparable.
Yea you are correct about the die cost calculation pretty much. Still that doesn't explain how 7700xt is not a loss at 400 dollars despite having over 1.7x the die size, 200m2 of their die on N5, and extensive use of special packaging for their MCD/GCD architecture. Clearly the die is only part of the equation and there are a ton of other factors to take into consideration. Semianalysis estimates the BOM of N32, not just the die, as being around 2.2x N33. I know that 7700xt is a cut down version of N32 so AMD is willing to take lower margins to still be able to sell some defective dies, but still. The 7700xt chip isn't only purely defective N32 chips, otherwise there'd be no volume, but also ones that were simply slightly behind their 7800xt targets and therefore binned. Unless AMD is willing to take a huge loss on slightly binned N32 dies, the 7700xt is still making profit at 400 dollars (1.48x rx 7600 price) despite costing 2.2x more to produce. If AMD can still make a profit on the rx 7700xt like this, I'm pretty sure Intel isn't losing boatloads of money on a product only 1.3x more expensive at most.

Also using 16.5 x 12.5 mm die for the rx 7600, on a 300mm wafer you get around 280 dies, with 85% yield and wafer price of 10k each die is around 40 dollars. Even at 2x that that would mean the BOM of the b580 is +40 and maybe +10-15 for extra ram. So plus 50-55 on a 250$ dollar product. It's clear they aren't making tons of money, if at all, but the BOM is not close to +50% at all and it's entirely possible that they aren't in fact losing money on battlemage.

 
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ajsdkflsdjfio

Member
Nov 20, 2024
171
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N6 is continuation of N7 - they stopped making N7, and it's now N6. Same thing going for N5-N4.
What are you talking about?
10 July 2024 - "Negotiations with AI and HPC customers, such as Nvidia, suggest these clients can tolerate approximately 10% price hikes for 4nm-class wafers from around $18,000 per wafer to around $20,000 per wafer. As a result, the 4nm and 5nm nodes, primarily used by companies like AMD and Nvidia, are expected to see an 11% blended average selling price (ASP) hike. " Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmc-may-increase-wafer-pricing-by-10-for-2025-report
Did you even read what they said. It says they can theoretically tolerate 10% price hikes from 4nm wafers from (18000 current price) to around 20k (theoretical price). NOWHERE does it say that the price is 20k for 4nm. Also like I said, what are you talking about with the N7=N6 and N5=N4 BS. They are not the same at all, it's like saying since TSMC developed N3X they discontinued N3,N3E, N3P and all wafers are now N3X.

Now that we have facts established, let's do some critical thinking. Most recent sources indicate N7 is 10k, N6 = ????, N5 = 15-16k, and according to your tom's hardware article, N4 = 18K. As we established N4 is a different product than N5, and as we see here it costs 2-3k more than N5. So what does that say about N6? Is it likely to be the same exact price as N7? No? How about let's be modest and only increase price by 1k. So N6 is 11k, and N5 is 15.5k. That's less than 50% increase.
 
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