News Intel GPUs - Falcon Shores cancelled

[IntelUser2000]

Actually, it looks like Intel is going to be late to the party. The crypto bubble is currently bursting, and it looks like Intel is going to be releasing their new cards right around the same time miners will be panic selling...

I've seen this before.

Period of stagnation--Price increases--Companies new to the party---Prices drop

Intel should have got their act before everyone but I guess that's how the world works. Going against/beyond what others are doing requires some extraordinary effort and work.

The biggest worry for me is that the company traditionally has been like a teenager that can't stick around to see something to completion. The amount of projects started and abandoned by them is numerous.

I hope they don't abandon it just because profits in the first 1-3 years isn't as good as they are expecting it to be. I am sure there are experienced guys in there that knows it takes few years for a new business category to have a chance to be successful.

I also believe in a few years we'll end up with a graphics duopoly again. AMD is too small of a player to die, but the duel between Intel/Nvidia will decide who's the second player.

 

[ultimatebob]

Knowing Intel, those GPUs will be cheap.

Intel is a company that always targets mainstream consumer.

Intel usually seems to have a budget SKU of performance neutered parts at a low price point (Think Celeron and modern day Pentium processors), and an enthusiast SKU with inflated prices vs performance (Think Core i9 and the "Extreme" processors).

I don't think that they'll be able to compete with the NVidia 3080/3090 cards performance wise (yet), so I'm expecting mid-range and lower-end cards at launch with matching price points.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

DG2/Arc 512 EUs @2.1GHz leak on Sisoftware

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484341679285239813

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484342563327062019

someone help me out is this good news?

 

[IntelUser2000]

I don't think that they'll be able to compete with the NVidia 3080/3090 cards performance wise (yet), so I'm expecting mid-range and lower-end cards at launch with matching price points.

Concensus is 3070 Ti levels of performance. No they won't target high range until Battlemage, or the next gen ARC.

someone help me out is this good news?

It's just information. It's a synthetic test so it just confirms the rumors/leaks we've been hearing for months now.

 

[moinmoin]

The biggest worry for me is that the company traditionally has been like a teenager that can't stick around to see something to completion. The amount of projects started and abandoned by them is numerous.

I hope they don't abandon it just because profits in the first 1-3 years isn't as good as they are expecting it to be. I am sure there are experienced guys in there that knows it takes few years for a new business category to have a chance to be successful.

Margins are shrinking for Intel so the impetus that made all the efforts in diversification of the past decade fail is lessening.

I also believe in a few years we'll end up with a graphics duopoly again. AMD is too small of a player to die, but the duel between Intel/Nvidia will decide who's the second player.

If we are talking solely about mainstream dedicated consumer graphic cards this may well happen as I see AMD focusing on server compute, integrated graphics and maybe high-end/workstation graphics (in that order).

 

[Dayman1225]

Charlie from Semiaccurate was doing a call the other day and he claims DG3/Battlemage is targeting late this year or early next (near the end of the notes) - also claims DG2 is quite late

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/s864i3/_/hth17lj

 

[IntelUser2000]

If we are talking solely about mainstream dedicated consumer graphic cards this may well happen as I see AMD focusing on server compute, integrated graphics and maybe high-end/workstation graphics (in that order).

Yes, but AMD has much less to lose because of their small marketshare. It's amazing how tenacious that company has been over the decades.

Nvidia is trying to push using proprietary technologies and using underhanded marketing tactics to push competitors out and increasing prices. Intel is the unknown here. If they are competitive in any way, Nvidia has the most to lose. If the 50+ design wins are in any way true, they could take 10-20% of the market in 2022!

Intel still has lots of work to do but this time is different from their previous approaches. The i740 wasn't really theirs and they didn't focus on discrete graphics. The Iris during Haswell was better, but still an iGPU.

The ARC parts build up from the massive base of iGPUs they already have. The basics seem to be covered with Xe - just need hard work to get drivers better. Previously, they weren't even in the same town. Now they are in the ballpark. I bet you in the first couple of months we'll see big changes to drivers as well.

Also I think AMD's competitiveness is here to stay.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The biggest worry for me is that the company traditionally has been like a teenager that can't stick around to see something to completion. The amount of projects started and abandoned by them is numerous.

Worst case, they have another disco ball. No biggee.

 

[beginner99]

It will come down to price as well. Knowing Intel, these cards won't be cheap.

3070 Ti performance at $700 would be cheap in current market and still give intel a nice margin. But I doubt they will do that and just set msrp right at >$800 as I don't expect they have the volume to keep it at $700.

 

[RnR_au]

They have to build market share, so they have to go cheap. At cost if possible and maybe even for a few generations.

 

[NTMBK]

They have to build market share, so they have to go cheap. At cost if possible and maybe even for a few generations.

Right now, people will buy any GPU they can. Intel don't need to worry about demand.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Charlie from Semiaccurate was doing a call the other day and he claims DG3/Battlemage is targeting late this year or early next (near the end of the notes) - also claims DG2 is quite late

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/s864i3/_/hth17lj

It seems to line up with "Intel 4" timing for a year from now. That and based off the tdp numbers we've gotten there's a good amount of room left for bigger chips. Battlemage doubling peak performance same time next year seems doable.

I wonder what the recent crypto crash and projections of rising GPU production and shipments by the summer are doing to their pricing.

 

[eek2121]

Knowing Intel, those GPUs will be cheap.

Intel is a company that always targets mainstream consumer.

If they are cheap, they won't be in stock. Intel knows this.

 

[IntelUser2000]

It seems to line up with "Intel 4" timing for a year from now. That and based off the tdp numbers we've gotten there's a good amount of room left for bigger chips. Battlemage doubling peak performance same time next year seems doable.

Rumors are pointing to Lovelace and RDNA3 being 70-90TFlops in FP32. Based on early leaks the top end Battlemage may be a 4-tile package with 640EUs per package. At 2GHz, 4x 640EUs will get to 80TFlops.

They will use a ton of power, probably 600W or so but the performance is insane.

Not confident being on Intel's process. End of 2022 for Intel 4 mass production is also a wee bit early.

 

[Shivansps]

Everyone should be more worried about drivers than anything else really. And this coming from the guy who is swiming in DG1s right now... Seeing the state of the drivers, its not wonder they never released the DG1 to the public, it would do more harm than good.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Everyone should be more worried about drivers than anything else really. And this coming from the guy who is swiming in DG1s right now... Seeing the state of the drivers, its not wonder they never released the DG1 to the public, it would do more harm than good.

could the fact that it was never released to the public be why there are no good drivers?
Just spitballing I have no idea.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Does seem curious why they can't just improve the DG1 drivers. Maybe it has some silicon related shortcomings that were discovered too late?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Does seem curious why they can't just improve the DG1 drivers. Maybe it has some silicon related shortcomings that were discovered too late?

my admittedly amateur guess is given the staff intel has at this moment is it a good use of labor to have them support a product that was never widely released or focus on the upcoming new cards. Ideally they’d do both however we all know big companies do not like to over staff.

 

[LightningZ71]

They have had months to release a driver that fixes the texture issues with Halo Infinite on the Intel Xe based tiger lake CPUs and haven't done so. There are a LOT of Xe based iGPUs out there, like millions, and they are doing a barely passable job with that, something that's based on exactly the same base architecure as the DG1.

This is exactly the same crap that Intel has pulled over and over again with desktop graphics for anything more than basic windows and professional software. I count us all lucky that their HD graphics drivers have worked as well as they have all rhese years, and that's likely only because of MS pushing them for their own sake.

 

[eek2121]

Rumors are pointing to Lovelace and RDNA3 being 70-90TFlops in FP32. Based on early leaks the top end Battlemage may be a 4-tile package with 640EUs per package. At 2GHz, 4x 640EUs will get to 80TFlops.

They will use a ton of power, probably 600W or so but the performance is insane.

Not confident being on Intel's process. End of 2022 for Intel 4 mass production is also a wee bit early.

I wouldn’t be so sure about Intel making these things. They have a large wafer allocation at TSMC.

Also, 512 EUs on 6nm @ 225W TGP. For 4x 512EU you are looking at 74 TFLOPs at 900W. However, if these chips were made on TSMC 3nm, They would consume less than half that. Intel could increase EU count at that point, and thry probably will, but a 450W DG2 with 2048 EUs at 2.1 ghz would likely be competitive.

Does seem curious why they can't just improve the DG1 drivers. Maybe it has some silicon related shortcomings that were discovered too late?

They have had months to release a driver that fixes the texture issues with Halo Infinite on the Intel Xe based tiger lake CPUs and haven't done so. There are a LOT of Xe based iGPUs out there, like millions, and they are doing a barely passable job with that, something that's based on exactly the same base architecure as the DG1.

This is exactly the same crap that Intel has pulled over and over again with desktop graphics for anything more than basic windows and professional software. I count us all lucky that their HD graphics drivers have worked as well as they have all rhese years, and that's likely only because of MS pushing them for their own sake.

There is a very good possibility Intel has an unreleased driver that will launch when cards start rolling out. Raja may be annoying, but he isn’t a complete waste of space. He knows that you need the software to go with the hardware.

 

[IntelUser2000]

I wouldn’t be so sure about Intel making these things. They have a large wafer allocation at TSMC.

Yes that was a response to @Frenetic Pony

Also, 512 EUs on 6nm @ 225W TGP. For 4x 512EU you are looking at 74 TFLOPs at 900W. However, if these chips were made on TSMC 3nm, They would consume less than half that. Intel could increase EU count at that point, and thry probably will, but a 450W DG2 with 2048 EUs at 2.1 ghz would likely be competitive.

Yes, I believe it's 4 slices based on this

gen12_9 / xe2_hpg
- ELG_x1_2x4
- ELG_x2_5x4
- ELG_x3_7x4
- ELG_x4_10x4

With x4 meaning 4 slices. It jives with the rumor mill as well. It's not a monolithic die. It's tiles from now on.

 

[psolord]

Do we know if Intel is going to make the cards themselves or are there going to be AIB partners too?

In my country at least, Intel branded products, tend to have a fair price.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Do we know if Intel is going to make the cards themselves or are there going to be AIB partners too?

In my country at least, Intel branded products, tend to have a fair price.

Kinda like what AMD is doing today. Reference cards by Intel, and bunch of AIB partners. It would be shooting yourself in the foot if you make it all by yourself.

Intel doesn't seem to be a fan of making their own devices and prefer others to build products around their chips. If you do too mjuch of your own devices than it kills relations with partners. 3Dfx sealed the final nails in their coffin by manufacturing their own.

 

[biostud]

It's the perfect time to launch a new video card. Even if it has some flaws, you can undercut the competition on price and still make money.

 

[biostud]

3Dfx sealed the final nails in their coffin by manufacturing their own.

Isn't that only because they were out competed?
If they had a better product than nvidia and ATI they would have stayed in business?