Intel Investor Meeting 2014

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witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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I haven't seen the quote, but maybe he was referring to 2+3 U parts?

It would be seriously impressive if 28W Gen8 SKUs were 33% faster than last year's desktop Iris Pro. The chart he used was the same as that from Haswell:



Also remember that they haven't announced any Iris Pro parts beside:
 

III-V

Senior member
Oct 12, 2014
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witeken said:
Also note the absence of projections for their own 10nm. They seem to know better what the competition will do than themselves! They don't want influence TSMC and Samsung, do they?
They simply don't want to talk about when they're targetting for 10nm HVM.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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They simply don't want to talk about when they're targetting for 10nm HVM.

They're not telling what their successor of FinFET is either, according to Holt they're not talking about 10nm for at least another 12 to 18 months.
 

dealcorn

Senior member
May 28, 2011
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Remember, Bay Trail-M will not be followed up by Cherry Trail, but by Braswell. Not sure if there are any differences except for the name.

Cherry trail features Airmont architecture which is a 14nm tick of Silvermont (per Wiki). Braswell features Goldmont which is the 14nm tock. More than interfaces will likely change.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Intel's Kirk Skaugen says their IGPs are already faster than 80% of the dGPUs in the market. There were some rumors of a Broadwell-K delay, but he refers to the (GT3) product that will offer a 100X increase since 2006 to be available early 2015.

That doesn't make sense - oh, he means in the market as in currently deployed and in use. In that case, Intel's IGPs are definitely faster than Intel's old 'dGPUs' embedded in their chipsets as well as older GFX cards. So, this is true, but kind of misleading.
 

ame132

Junior Member
Dec 22, 2013
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mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Witeken

Thanks for sharing with us the keynotes. FWIW I think Intel is hinting a pretty much stable outlook for the next two years from a financial POV. They will have increased CAPEX and R&D spending from their new designs and products, but their other cash cows are stable (consumer business) or growing (servers). I didn't like the lack of disclosure of their 10nm node, but since Intel is at disadvantage on the mobile market, it's better for them to not show many of their cards and surprise everyone whenever they release it.

It seems that Intel is really committed to full domination of the PC market. The contra-revenue benefits are being fed-back to the consumer market, making Bay Trail an excellent value proposition for OEMs. Airmont will definitely a hit on the PC market.

The billion dollar question hanging on their heads is whether they will succeed on the mobile market. At least in terms of talking they seem to be going with their crack teams this time, 2015 will be critical for them as the trend for them on the mobile market will be clear for everyone to see.

Did you listen something about their digital radio? It will give them a huge advantage if they can field products with this technology.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
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Witeken

Thanks for sharing with us the keynotes. FWIW I think Intel is hinting a pretty much stable outlook for the next two years from a financial POV. They will have increased CAPEX and R&D spending from their new designs and products, but their other cash cows are stable (consumer business) or growing (servers). I didn't like the lack of disclosure of their 10nm node, but since Intel is at disadvantage on the mobile market, it's better for them to not show many of their cards and surprise everyone whenever they release it.

It seems that Intel is really committed to full domination of the PC market. The contra-revenue benefits are being fed-back to the consumer market, making Bay Trail an excellent value proposition for OEMs. Airmont will definitely a hit on the PC market.

The billion dollar question hanging on their heads is whether they will succeed on the mobile market. At least in terms of talking they seem to be going with their crack teams this time, 2015 will be critical for them as the trend for them on the mobile market will be clear for everyone to see.

Did you listen something about their digital radio? It will give them a huge advantage if they can field products with this technology.

A double plus for Witeken's yeoman work in providing info and summaries on the investor meeting!

Yes, I think Intel looks very stable for the next two years. And think that both 2015 & 2016 will be critical indicators on how nimble Intel is in responding to the changing needs of the mobile SoC marketplace.

Visa vi the OPEX goal of getting spending down to 30% of revenue - I'm concerned that the MegaFabs Intel will need to build for 450nm wafers is going to delay their ability to reach that target, but that's out past the next two years.

I wish there was a transcript of the 1st Q&A. I think there is some good info buried in the both by what was said and not said. As a whole, this management teams really seem to be function well and they are at the top of their game.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Yes, I think Intel looks very stable for the next two years. And think that both 2015 & 2016 will be critical indicators on how nimble Intel is in responding to the changing needs of the mobile SoC marketplace.

What caught my attention is that, despite failing to crack the nut of the mobile market, how fast they fortified the bottom of the PC market. The entire bottom market will be basically composed of Core-M and Bay Trail SoCs, which have similar die size of ARM SoCs. Intel definitely managed develop a product designed for high volume and low cost, something that was sorely lacking in their product mix years ago.

I'm really interested in seeing whether Intel will achieve its contra-revenue goal of cost parity in terms of platform with ARM.

Visa vi the OPEX goal of getting spending down to 30% of revenue - I'm concerned that the MegaFabs Intel will need to build for 450nm wafers is going to delay their ability to reach that target, but that's out past the next two years.

Most of the fab costs will be aggregated to COGS and thus reflected on gross margins, not on OPEX.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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193
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FWIW I think Intel is hinting a pretty much stable outlook for the next two years from a financial POV. They will have increased CAPEX and R&D spending from their new designs and products, but their other cash cows are stable (consumer business) or growing (servers).
Intel is forecasting ~6% growth for 2014 and another ~5% for 2015. What will mainly drive a lot of growth in the coming years is their DCG. In 2014 the data center will have a $14B revenue, and for fun you can multiply this by 1.15 a few times to get their 2018 revenue with a 15% CAGR. Oh, and one more thing, it's a 50% net margin business, so that will be $12B from DCG alone in 2018 to sustain Moore's Law.

The billion dollar question hanging on their heads is whether they will succeed on the mobile market. At least in terms of talking they seem to be going with their crack teams this time, 2015 will be critical for them as the trend for them on the mobile market will be clear for everyone to see.
The most important thing, in my opinion, is that they deliver big on 10nm. If they can get Broxton and SoFIA on 10nm in H2 2016 for 2017 widespread availability (e.g. SGS8) with a big materials update to provide huge improvements and with great yields, they can do a lot of damage and improve their mobile footprint and start the domination to reduce reduce ARM to no more than a footnote in computing history. I highly doubt that will happen, though (the first thing, not the domination thing).

Did you listen something about their digital radio?
Nope.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
A double plus for Witeken's yeoman work in providing info and summaries on the investor meeting!
Didn't know it would be, apparently, so helpful.

I wish there was a transcript of the 1st Q&A. I think there is some good info buried in the both by what was said and not said. As a whole, this management teams really seem to be function well and they are at the top of their game.
You can still watch it, though. Link in the FP.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
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Intel is forecasting ~6% growth for 2014 and another ~5% for 2015. What will mainly drive a lot of growth in the coming years is their DCG. In 2014 the data center will have a $14B revenue, and for fun you can multiply this by 1.15 a few times to get their 2018 revenue with a 15% CAGR. Oh, and one more thing, it's a 50% net margin business, so that will be $12B from DCG alone in 2018 to sustain Moore's Law.

The most important thing, in my opinion, is that they deliver big on 10nm. If they can get Broxton and SoFIA on 10nm in H2 2016 for 2017 widespread availability (e.g. SGS8) with a big materials update to provide huge improvements and with great yields, they can do a lot of damage and improve their mobile footprint and start the domination to reduce reduce ARM to no more than a footnote in computing history. I highly doubt that will happen, though (the first thing, not the domination thing).


Nope.

Intels solution on the server and business side is improving each year. Its already far beyond anything like class leading ipc giving lower software licening or low tco through superior perf/w. They are so damn strong here, with a broad integrated approach, i have no doubt they can turn better profit in 5 years even if solid arm cpu enter. They have a lot of stuff lined up for the future.

On the mobile side they have to improve eg such relatively "simple " things like the dsp. And ofcource the modem and gpu. Their process level and cpu arch is fine imo. Intel is a technology powerhouse and its a blunder to not be first - or at close - with eg. 265H de/encoding. Its like they forgot why people use eg. their phones. The consumer side is more difficult to handle than the b2b side where its all about business eg. minimising tco. Its actually far more simple than b2c market.

If we go and look what they get for a 600mm2 server cpu and notice its not all tight binning, as they have several sizes, its aparent they have so much leverage here its crazy.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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I guess I'm not the only person who enjoyed their presentations: Intel: My Take On The Intel Investor Meeting, although possibly for other reasons than I.

I spent most of Thursday watching the Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Investor Meeting. Today they posted the videos and I watched it again, some sections I ran four or five times.

From the comments:

Bruce Burnworth said:
I was stumped by a drop to 62% gross margin and 5% growth guidance. Why so low? So I emailed Russ. What's up? Russ's response: "Remember next year is the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law. 2015 will be a year of underpromising and overdelivering. No one wants to look bad on that anniversary year!"
 
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SunburstLP

Member
Jun 15, 2014
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I apologize if I missed it, but does the restructuring of the PC and Mobile groups shake up the contra-revenue program in any way? (As a polite request, I don't want this to end up a discussion of the practice, we can all guess how that would go.) Cheers.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
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I apologize if I missed it, but does the restructuring of the PC and Mobile groups shake up the contra-revenue program in any way?
It does not. Intel now has a Bay Trail platform with a ~5$ platform cost delta, so those costs will become progressively smaller as the high BOM Bay Trail gets replaced.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
I'm really interested in seeing whether Intel will achieve its contra-revenue goal of cost parity in terms of platform with ARM.


Most of the fab costs will be aggregated to COGS and thus reflected on gross margins, not on OPEX.

1. Yeah, seems like selling the Atom line just for the raw costs of material and manufacturing will be a big first step for Intel (lower cost/more vertically integrated BT & ClvT+). Actually getting an operating profit (still exclusive of process and design costs) is the next hurdle (@14nm). My read is that Intel probably won't have net profits in mobile until 10nm.

Thanks for the info on CAPEX being absorbed into GOGS - now I understand Intel's drive for OPEX being 30% of revenue, which really looked unrealistic at first.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Thanks for the info on CAPEX being absorbed into GOGS - now I understand Intel's drive for OPEX being 30% of revenue, which really looked unrealistic at first.

Not only CAPEX, but also whatever higher operational costs the new node fabs have, but CAPEX plays a very important role on Intel's COGS: About 40% of COGS is depreciation/amortization.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Not only CAPEX, but also whatever higher operational costs the new node fabs have, but CAPEX plays a very important role on Intel's COGS: About 40% of COGS is depreciation/amortization.

Wow, that's high (by today's standards). That must be higher than heavy industries like Detroit (because Detroit doesn't turn over 'models' as quickly nor are they likely as heavily automated).
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Wow, that's high (by today's standards). That must be higher than heavy industries like Detroit (because Detroit doesn't turn over 'models' as quickly nor are they likely as heavily automated).

It is. Not only car factories aren't a two-three years affair depreciation-wise, the auto industry has huge challenges in terms of BoM, which is very significant on their products, and a lot of human work involved in the manufacturing itself. Just to put things in perspective, Intel has more CAPEX than GM but has about a third of their sales.
 
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