Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

[Tigerick]

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.



Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	12 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (20A)	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	Intel 20A	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Q1 2025 ?	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	6P + 8E ?	8P + 16E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	24 MB ?	36 MB ?	12 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake



As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

 

[511]

I've mentioned this before... I think they are using the YOLO strategy. The yields/defect rate probably doesn't matter as much as you think. It helps that the die should be very salvageable. Helps make some money off of the node.

At this point, any Xeon customers left are the types that aren't going to buy AMD even with AMD's products being so much better. So if Intel can't supply Granite, they'll just supply Sapphire or Emerald.

The only reason those are buying is because of contracts and sw support at least SRF is way better than EMR vs Genoa

 

[Henry swagger]

More discussion about Royal Core:

https://www.reddit.com/r/intel/comments/1f945fl/some_rumors_about_the_royal_core_project

Make that of what you will.

Sounds like e core steam will redesign a new p core from now on.. 12 wide core will be the big one

 

[jpiniero]

The only reason those are buying is because of contracts and sw support at least SRF is way better than EMR vs Genoa

You can't actually buy Sierra, even if you wanted to.

 

[igor_kavinski]

My current i9 laptop uses DDR5.

You "might" be able to get slightly better performance for it with DDR5-6400 SODIMM: https://www.kingston.com/datasheets/KF564S38IBK2-32.pdf

Just FYI, in case you are running 5600 or worse, 4800 MT/s.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Other than that, there's no performance penalty worth noting for LPDDR RAM. LPDDR RAM has gotten a bad reputation over the last few years especially, since Intel tied LPDDR4 support to a new 10nm memory controller which they weren't able to ship because 10nm was a disaster, and AMD didn't bother supporting LPDDR4 before Zen 2, so the PC laptop market was stuck on using either LPDDR3 or DDR4 for four years after the DDR3 to DDR4 transition."

Hmm..lemme just get home and check my Ice Lake with the stylus...

 

[Khato]

You can't actually buy Sierra, even if you wanted to.

Only takes a minute or two to find stock online of one of the SRF SKUs - https://www.shi.com/product/48511386/Intel-Xeon-6746E-2-GHz

To be fair it's not surprising that there's not a lot of availability given sales to its intended market. I'm sure the lack of availability will be claimed as manufacturing issues by those who wish to paint that picture. But despite wishful thinking to the contrary there has not been some step function shift in Intel/AMD market shares - it's just been a slow and steady chipping away for AMD to get up to around the current 25% mark.

 

[Markfw]

Only takes a minute or two to find stock online of one of the SRF SKUs - https://www.shi.com/product/48511386/Intel-Xeon-6746E-2-GHz

To be fair it's not surprising that there's not a lot of availability given sales to its intended market. I'm sure the lack of availability will be claimed as manufacturing issues by those who wish to paint that picture. But despite wishful thinking to the contrary there has not been some step function shift in Intel/AMD market shares - it's just been a slow and steady chipping away for AMD to get up to around the current 25% mark.

Sorry, I will take my 128 thread 3.5-3.75 ghz Genoa, thats too much for a weak CPU benchmark wise compared to Genoa. And NO avx-512 ???? I think AMD will keep chipping away based on benchmarks and features.

 

[SiliconFly]

Only takes a minute or two to find stock online of one of the SRF SKUs - https://www.shi.com/product/48511386/Intel-Xeon-6746E-2-GHz

To be fair it's not surprising that there's not a lot of availability given sales to its intended market. I'm sure the lack of availability will be claimed as manufacturing issues by those who wish to paint that picture. But despite wishful thinking to the contrary there has not been some step function shift in Intel/AMD market shares - it's just been a slow and steady chipping away for AMD to get up to around the current 25% mark.

Oopsie. For a while I was under the impression that AMD server market share would've be around or over 50% when compared to Intel. Seeing these numbers is quite shocking.

Server CPU share	2024 Q1 current quarter share	2023 Q4 prior quarter share	2023 Q1 year ago quarter share	Share change (points) quarter	Share change (points) year
Intel	76.4%	76.9%	82.0%	-0.5	-5.6
AMD	23.6%	23.1%	18.0%	+0.5	+5.6
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Source: The Register

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

 

[naukkis]

Oopsie. For a while I was under the impression that AMD server market share would've be around or over 50% when compared to Intel. Seeing these numbers is quite shocking.

Server CPU share	2024 Q1 current quarter share	2023 Q4 prior quarter share	2023 Q1 year ago quarter share	Share change (points) quarter	Share change (points) year
Intel	76.4%	76.9%	82.0%	-0.5	-5.6
AMD	23.6%	23.1%	18.0%	+0.5	+5.6
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Source: The Register

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

Revenue share is different story. Intel retain marked share basically giving their products away. Even Intel can't sustain such strategy long, they need something to sell for profit or quit entirely from that market.

 

[gdansk]

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

I admire your optimism. But one should look at the financial reports, where it is usually a crime to falsify data, to get a better picture of who is and will be making money in the server space.

 

[Abwx]

Oopsie. For a while I was under the impression that AMD server market share would've be around or over 50% when compared to Intel. Seeing these numbers is quite shocking.

Server CPU share	2024 Q1 current quarter share	2023 Q4 prior quarter share	2023 Q1 year ago quarter share	Share change (points) quarter	Share change (points) year
Intel	76.4%	76.9%	82.0%	-0.5	-5.6
AMD	23.6%	23.1%	18.0%	+0.5	+5.6
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Source: The Register

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

Revenue wise those 24% amount to more than 30% revenue share, so Intel is still desperatly selling their chips at a loss to keep their marketshare.

And for ARL the 285K in its mobile variant score 32200 pts at 120W in CB R23, at the same power a Zen 4 7945HX score 34000, guess that for DT we are good for another ride at 250W, if not 297W PL4 sustained the necessary time.

 

[Henry swagger]

Oopsie. For a while I was under the impression that AMD server market share would've be around or over 50% when compared to Intel. Seeing these numbers is quite shocking.

Server CPU share	2024 Q1 current quarter share	2023 Q4 prior quarter share	2023 Q1 year ago quarter share	Share change (points) quarter	Share change (points) year
Intel	76.4%	76.9%	82.0%	-0.5	-5.6
AMD	23.6%	23.1%	18.0%	+0.5	+5.6
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Source: The Register

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

Client is way more important for intel than server.. lunar lake and panther lake are the revenue drivers

 

[Khato]

I admire your optimism. But one should look at the financial reports, where it is usually a crime to falsify data, to get a better picture of who is and will be making money in the server space.

Completely agree there. Sadly the correct answer to who is and will be making money in the server space is NVIDIA followed in a distant second by AMD. The trends on AMD's Data Center revenue and operating income over the past year paint a pretty clear picture that their growth and margins are due to AI accelerators rather than server CPU sales. While SRF will definitely help Intel, they simply aren't going to get much benefit from it on the revenue/margin side because the primary market for such is spending as much of their budget as possible on AI.

Sorry, I will take my 128 thread 3.5-3.75 ghz Genoa, thats too much for a weak CPU benchmark wise compared to Genoa. And NO avx-512 ???? I think AMD will keep chipping away based on benchmarks and features.

Exactly as you should. SRF isn't suited to your usage as I'm pretty sure you're not hosting websites or providing cloud services. (Neither of which care one bit about avx-512 by the way, but reap major benefits from Intel accelerators.)

 

[Markfw]

Completely agree there. Sadly the correct answer to who is and will be making money in the server space is NVIDIA followed in a distant second by AMD. The trends on AMD's Data Center revenue and operating income over the past year paint a pretty clear picture that their growth and margins are due to AI accelerators rather than server CPU sales. While SRF will definitely help Intel, they simply aren't going to get much benefit from it on the revenue/margin side because the primary market for such is spending as much of their budget as possible on AI.


Exactly as you should. SRF isn't suited to your usage as I'm pretty sure you're not hosting websites or providing cloud services. (Neither of which care one bit about avx-512 by the way, but reap major benefits from Intel accelerators.)

I guess I should have said Bergamo, same thing sort of, but still avx-512 and twice the threads and still beat it in benchmarks.

 

[gdansk]

Completely agree there. Sadly the correct answer to who is and will be making money in the server space is NVIDIA followed in a distant second by AMD.

Epyc (up 38% YoY) vs Xeon and Gaudi (up 3% YoY). Add MI300A/X or Nvidia and it is sad but even without it the trend was clear.

All I'm saying is don't expect DCAI to save Intel soon. It's a bit optimistic to call what Intel will achieve in server market as a bloodbath.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Intel is really pathetic. I used my company email address to sign up to their Tiber Cloud and then requested access to Lunar Lake and Granite Rapids machines for evaluation. It said in the console that their team would review my request and get back to me. I login today and it says, you are not allowed to login. Contact the administrator. Put in a support request but don't think that will go anywhere. Stupid of them to block a potential customer out of their cloud. My company is after all using Ice Lake VMs in Azure.

 

[Khato]

Epyc (up 38% YoY) vs Xeon and Gaudi (up 3% YoY). Add MI300A/X or Nvidia and it is sad but even without it the trend was clear.

There was a statement of Epyc by itself being up 38% YoY in some metric?

Gaudi is quite the unfortunate story that's all too typical for Intel acquisitions. It's one of those that was a good acquisition for where the market was headed but subsequently stifled by Intel bureaucracy. Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 are both good hardware options but don't seem likely to gain traction because of their more specialized implementation. aka, sure they're great for the current algorithms but what about the next big thing? The more general purpose nature of the AMD and NVIDIA options makes them a safer investment and hence Intel misses out.

 

[gdansk]

There was a statement of Epyc by itself being up 38% YoY in some metric?

Not exactly but MI300A/X revenue was stated in the call so one can deduce that YoY figure.

 

[maddie]

Oopsie. For a while I was under the impression that AMD server market share would've be around or over 50% when compared to Intel. Seeing these numbers is quite shocking.

Server CPU share	2024 Q1 current quarter share	2023 Q4 prior quarter share	2023 Q1 year ago quarter share	Share change (points) quarter	Share change (points) year
Intel	76.4%	76.9%	82.0%	-0.5	-5.6
AMD	23.6%	23.1%	18.0%	+0.5	+5.6
Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

Source: The Register

AMD is not even at 25%, but just 23% in servers. I think the upcoming Intel server products should be able to stop the market share loss. And, in clients, Intel is still at 80% even after all the MTL/RPL/RPL-R debacle. If ARL Lion Cove outperforms Zen 5, then it's gonna be a bloodbath.

How much is Apple's share of total smart phone sales?

On the other hand, keep the humor coming.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I've mentioned this before... I think they are using the YOLO strategy. The yields/defect rate probably doesn't matter as much as you think. It helps that the die should be very salvageable. Helps make some money off of the node.

At this point, any Xeon customers left are the types that aren't going to buy AMD even with AMD's products being so much better. So if Intel can't supply Granite, they'll just supply Sapphire or Emerald.

You can't actually buy Sierra, even if you wanted to.

Bing bing bing, we have (probable) winnar. Intel had to deliver Sierra Forest for clients that specifically requested it (and allegedly threatened to go AMD if they didn't get what they want). Intel likely put no limits on how many wafers it took to deliver the desired product. The actual yields could have (and probably were) in the basement. That would be one major reason why Intel can't/won't sell Sierra Forest to the general public.

 

[igor_kavinski]

The actual yields could have (and probably were) in the basement.

Just like Meteor Crater Lake.

 

[Khato]

Not exactly but MI300A/X revenue was stated in the call so one can deduce that YoY figure.

Okay. Yeah, AMD's Data Center revenue and margins are increasing but it's entirely due to their small piece of the AI pie.

If you instead go with the Mercury Research figures for market share and revenue of x86 server CPU between Q1 2024 and Q1 2023... AMD market share increased from 18% to 23.6% for a 31.1% increase while revenue share increased from 27.8% to 33% for an 18.7% increase. Yeah, I know, kinda puts a damper on the favored narrative that AMD is dominating in the server space that their market share is increasing more than their revenue share. aka, AMD server ASPs are decreasing while Intel server ASPs are increasing.

 

[Khato]

The actual yields could have (and probably were) in the basement.

Pssst... they aren't.

I know FUD is fun to spread, but it gets tiresome to keep hearing the same baseless claims.

 

[OriAr]

Bing bing bing, we have (probable) winnar. Intel had to deliver Sierra Forest for clients that specifically requested it (and allegedly threatened to go AMD if they didn't get what they want). Intel likely put no limits on how many wafers it took to deliver the desired product. The actual yields could have (and probably were) in the basement. That would be one major reason why Intel can't/won't sell Sierra Forest to the general public.

Except that Supermicro has a bunch of SRF servers on sale and you can buy one in a matter of minutes if you want to, so claims about "No volume" seem to be fairly baseless. SRF also represents a big change in DCAI strategy and it's not the kind of stuff you do to satisfy some specific clients (Unlike Cooper Lake for example, which Intel did do in the request of Facebook).
Actual yields are perfectly fine for Intel 4/3, the bottleneck for MTL is on the packaging side, not the wafer yields.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Pssst... they aren't.

I know FUD is fun to spread, but it gets tiresome to keep hearing the same baseless claims.

So this was FUD too?

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@OriAr

Since when? That's news to me.

edit: the only Xeon 6780E I see in a cursory Google search have availability of 4-6+ weeks or "out of stock". Links:

Intel Xeon 6780E / 2.2 GHz processor - OEM - PK8077105931400 - CPUs - CDW.com

Buy a Intel Xeon 6780E / 2.2 GHz processor - OEM at CDW.com

www.cdw.com

https://www.connection.com/product/intel-intel-xeon-6780e-processor-sr/pk8077105931400/41812196