Intel Q213 Results

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rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
508
427
136
2003: Intel deliberately went for a lousy microarch for desktops

It's not correct: Pentium 4 was released late Autumn 2000 and first models were slower than Pentium 3.

Intel can't compete on price, the other competitors are happy to live with lower margins and turn those savings into OEM profits or a lower street price, either way Intel is not the first choice.

Apple, Qualcomm or smaller players don't need to inwest billions and billions dollars into technology process and manufacturing plants like Intel.
That's the main reason why Intel don't like low margins unlike it's ARM competitors.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Apple or Qualcomm don't need to inwest billions and billions dollars into technology process and manufacturing plants like Intel.
That's the main reason why Intel don't like low margins unlike it's ARM competitors.

No, they just pay TSMC's margin

Fabs are great if you can keep them fully loaded...
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
Intel has no high end SoC. They have only BayTrail. And you can't go into the high end with 1/2 half of the GPU performance of nearly every other high-end ARM SoC.

I agree that Intel is making a mistake by not adding more GPU-grunt, but for Windows 8.1 tablets, Bay Trail is going to be where it is at. I'd rather have an anemic GPU and x86 compatibility than run Windows RT with a faster GPU :biggrin:
 

sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
Why? Because you can use legacy software which run with 1 frame?
 
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StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
It's not correct: Pentium 4 was released late Autumn 2000 and first models were slower than Pentium 3.



Apple, Qualcomm or smaller players don't need to inwest billions and billions dollars into technology process and manufacturing plants like Intel.
That's the main reason why Intel don't like low margins unlike it's ARM competitors.

Heck I think that is exactly what TSMC and ARM players wanted, let Intel foot the bulk of the R&D bill for shrinking nodes because they know Intel *must* have the best process while they pay much less shrinking half a node behind.
 

rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
508
427
136
AMD also had similar press release wars with intel, back when they had a clear performance and efficiency lead. What is AMD doing these days?

I think, that your analogy is quite far from being perfect: AMD even on it's peak never had such power and market position like Qualcomm nowadays (not to mention Samsung or Apple).
Because of that Intel's battle against ARM allies would be much more difficult as it was against AMD.

And one more thing: consumers' choice is not limited anymore to Wintel these days as it used to be 7-8 years ago.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Heck I think that is exactly what TSMC and ARM players wanted, let Intel foot the bulk of the R&D bill for shrinking nodes because they know Intel *must* have the best process while they pay much less shrinking half a node behind.

You don't really think that though, right?

TSMC would love to have Intel's process tech and node advantage. And its customers would love for TSMC to have it as well.

What TSMC doesn't have is Intel's R&D budget and R&D pipeline know-how. But they do all right for themselves.
 

pelov

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2011
3,510
6
0
You don't really think that though, right?

TSMC would love to have Intel's process tech and node advantage. And its customers would love for TSMC to have it as well.

What TSMC doesn't have is Intel's R&D budget and R&D pipeline know-how. But they do all right for themselves.

They suffice for that with a large customer base and high volume. It's a lot like ARM, in that the R&D and expenses are spread out over a number of corporations rather than just a single entity.

Not making your own chips means you can be a neutral party and offer your fabs to the highest bidder, and in a turbulent market with lots of competitors that's the ideal position. It's not the person with the sharpest knife that wins the fight, but the merchant who's selling everyone knives ;P
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
You don't really think that though, right?

TSMC would love to have Intel's process tech and node advantage. And its customers would love for TSMC to have it as well.

What TSMC doesn't have is Intel's R&D budget and R&D pipeline know-how. But they do all right for themselves.

I think that was his point though - Intel is spending huge amounts of their revenue on R&D and capex, because they need to in order to stay ahead, because their fab advantage appears to be the only advantage they have left. You have to wonder when it will end, or when it will just get too expensive even for them. This is why these "poor" (if you can call making $2 billion profit poor) results *are* actually hurting Intel. They have twice cut capex by $1 billion this year but are still no closer to competing where they need to be.
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
You don't really think that though, right?

TSMC would love to have Intel's process tech and node advantage. And its customers would love for TSMC to have it as well.

What TSMC doesn't have is Intel's R&D budget and R&D pipeline know-how. But they do all right for themselves.

Of course they will will say yes if that drops from the sky. My point is they would rather be followers when current conditions doesn't exactly reward bleeding edge process technology considering the enormous investments that needs to be made to get there, especially when the target consumers could care less what SoC is inside the product let alone what process node it was made from.
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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No, they just pay TSMC's margin

Fabs are great if you can keep them fully loaded...

Excactly. Tsmc can because everyone and his brother uses their capacity from expensive phones to microowens. Giving the perfect depreciation while Intel is shut down here. Even usb is run on 32nm. Utterly waste of ressources.
You think tsmc profit is bad. You have to realise this is not the former soviet union, and the profit matches the business effectiveness. And that includes the customer at least as well.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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Heck I think that is exactly what TSMC and ARM players wanted, let Intel foot the bulk of the R&D bill for shrinking nodes because they know Intel *must* have the best process while they pay much less shrinking half a node behind.

Ofcourse firstmovers pay. Intel pay for the suppliers learning to. Imagine intel using the same node as everybody else? Lol. There is no such thing. They are stuck. It shows Intels need to reinvent their business more fundamentally.

They still have plenty profitable business as a laverage, but how long time did it take for them to wipe out the old dogs in the server business?
History show that when a transition start, its kind of the ketchup out of bottle effect.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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Ofcourse firstmovers pay. Intel pay for the suppliers learning to. Imagine intel using the same node as everybody else? Lol. There is no such thing. Intel need to reinvent their business.

By that logic GloFo should be a fantastic company. :awe:

Excactly. Tsmc can because everyone and his brother uses their capacity from expensive phones to microowens. Giving the perfect depreciation while Intel is shut down here. Even usb is run on 32nm. Utterly waste of ressources.

They should make lowend GPUs on 65nm too, right?
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
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As for all the doubters, I just find it funny. We'll just wait and see what happens I suppose, it will be quite funny to see ARMH's hubris catch up to them. AMD also had similar press release wars with intel, back when they had a clear performance and efficiency lead. What is AMD doing these days?

AMD and ARM are/were in pretty different places. AMD tried to poach Intel's natural habitat during a prolonged period of suckage in their bread-and-butter parts, and Intel returned to form and retook its traditional home. ARM on the other hand is entrenched in a market where Intel has next to no experience or traction, and Intel are desperately trying to break into it.

It's going to be interesting, and I think Intel has a very good chance. But I wouldn't be writing ARM's obituary just yet...
 
Aug 11, 2008
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AMD and ARM are/were in pretty different places. AMD tried to poach Intel's natural habitat during a prolonged period of suckage in their bread-and-butter parts, and Intel returned to form and retook its traditional home. ARM on the other hand is entrenched in a market where Intel has next to no experience or traction, and Intel are desperately trying to break into it.

It's going to be interesting, and I think Intel has a very good chance. But I wouldn't be writing ARM's obituary just yet...

This is the main problem I see for Intel. I am old school, and strongly value x86 and TBH, really hate android, especially in anything larger than a phone. But I work in a large university with a lot of undergrads, and android is to them what x86 is to me... the OS they have grown up with. IoS and android have such a large user base and so many apps that even if Intel (or AMD) develop superior hardware, which Intel at least has the resources to do, I think they will have a hard time breaking into the tablet/smartphone market.

Personally, I see this as a trivialization or dumbing down of the computing experience, but it is undoubtedly happening.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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This is the main problem I see for Intel. I am old school, and strongly value x86 and TBH, really hate android, especially in anything larger than a phone. But I work in a large university with a lot of undergrads, and android is to them what x86 is to me... the OS they have grown up with. IoS and android have such a large user base and so many apps that even if Intel (or AMD) develop superior hardware, which Intel at least has the resources to do, I think they will have a hard time breaking into the tablet/smartphone market.

Personally, I see this as a trivialization or dumbing down of the computing experience, but it is undoubtedly happening.

I have it the same way and is still not convinced i will not get a x86 phone, but editing my excell sheets on my ps4 and using tapatalk here on vacation the opportunities of android and the mobile is just exploding. Granted i dont have the apps that only run on xp but whatever my kids dont even know what xp is.

I am even there i would like to update my rx100 camera to the new version to get wifi and nfc. Half a year back i would frown of that thought.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
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I used to believe that I'd only be interested in x86 because of Windows, but now I'm not so sure. I just won't pay the extra for an x86 tablet with Windows, that much is certain. As for a phone? That's not even a consideration.
 

LegSWAT

Member
Jul 8, 2013
75
0
0
Ofcourse firstmovers pay. Intel pay for the suppliers learning to. Imagine intel using the same node as everybody else? Lol. There is no such thing. They are stuck. It shows Intels need to reinvent their business more fundamentally.
Mobile market means lower margins, more competition and less impact of marketing (as it's the device brand that sells, not the cpu brand). A consequence of declining PC sales and entering the highly fought mobile market is less profit. Add in skyrocketing costs for fab upgrades that can only be maintained with large enough unit sales, both to redeem fix costs on each node for process R&D and mask costs (which also increase together with wafer and lithography costs), the overall costs of staying one nose ahead are about to increase while margins and most likely profits are about to decrease. So Intel's first mover advantage is largely reduced with the next few nodes. With multiple exposure/patterning techniques, their increasing costs but diminishing returns on performance and transistor costs, it will be very hard to maintain the process advantage beyond the next few nodes (let's say 10nm), absent some drastic change in the industry (or consumer behavior).
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
Excactly. Tsmc can because everyone and his brother uses their capacity from expensive phones to microowens. Giving the perfect depreciation while Intel is shut down here. Even usb is run on 32nm. Utterly waste of ressources.
You think tsmc profit is bad. You have to realise this is not the former soviet union, and the profit matches the business effectiveness. And that includes the customer at least as well.

Their chipsets relative power draw is pretty large when the CPU is idling, they have to at most fab it a node behind the CPU to keep it overall power consumption down.

As for why they would rather shutdown their old plants I bet it's unprofitable to fab for 3rd parties or/and unwillingness from potential clients. Most likely because TSMC does it cheaper and have a TON more experience with custom designs.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
Their chipsets relative power draw is pretty large when the CPU is idling, they have to at most fab it a node behind the CPU to keep it overall power consumption down.

As for why they would rather shutdown their old plants I bet it's unprofitable to fab for 3rd parties or/and unwillingness from potential clients. Most likely because TSMC does it cheaper and have a TON more experience with custom designs.

Whatever the reason. They face a far steaper depreciation in a declining pc market and a mobile market where to two major players will not use their products.

(And no shintai a lonely cheap tab3 is excactly the definition of zerro, they are just used in a game of the big boys here)
 

nonworkingrich

Junior Member
Jul 4, 2013
7
0
0
I have the slight suspicion Intel could be up against a cartel in this case. But it is a nice cartel, would they otherwise equip the galaxy tab 3 with Intel chips?
I understand guys like Torvalds rooting for x86. In their time, x86 stood for "processing power to the people", it was a revolution. What we see now is another revolution, "processing power to even more people (most of them not knowing what processing power means)".
"The Revolution, like Saturn, will successively devour all its children" (and yes, i do know the quote in full).
 

pablo87

Senior member
Nov 5, 2012
374
0
0
Excactly. Tsmc can because everyone and his brother uses their capacity from expensive phones to microowens. Giving the perfect depreciation while Intel is shut down here. Even usb is run on 32nm. Utterly waste of ressources.
You think tsmc profit is bad. You have to realise this is not the former soviet union, and the profit matches the business effectiveness. And that includes the customer at least as well.

Very much so. You look at Qualcomm, they have more cash on hand than Intel, they have no debt, they generate more cash every quarter after capex than Intel. Ditto Apple. TSMC is not as profitable but still very good and as a whole these 4 giants incl. Samsung, are >>> Intel business model wise which means they can more afford to invest in the future....in terms of financial resources, Intel's process lead is not safe. All that capex wasted to produce faster integrated graphics " was a colossal mistake - they lost sight of the forest trying to cut down the AMD tree. So sad.
 

SiliconWars

Platinum Member
Dec 29, 2012
2,346
0
0
I'm just looking forward to a real price war. Intel's old way of doing business simply cannot work here, so they'll be forced to bite some hard bullets and in the end they'll need to accept less revenues and profits, and drag Qualcomm down with them. The real winner will be the consumer.
 

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
8,548
2
0
I'm just looking forward to a real price war. Intel's old way of doing business simply cannot work here, so they'll be forced to bite some hard bullets and in the end they'll need to accept less revenues and profits, and drag Qualcomm down with them. The real winner will be the consumer.

They've already accepted that fact and are committed to the sub-200$ market, and have stated as such many times over the past year. They're also determined to do yearly and possibly twice yearly updates to their high efficiency architectures (eg Bay Trail). They can make this happen and will - their new CEO has stated as such. Personally I find nothing of value in the sub 200$ market. It is dominated by trashy android tablets that are worthless. That is my own opinion, though.

That being said, there are still a wide array of options available when it comes to CPUs. Intel will still sell plenty of high margin chips for portables such as macbook airs and what not, which is an area that ARM SOCs can't compete with. There is a big market for high performance and higher quality/priced SKUs, as evidenced by the volumes of 500$+ ipads and macbooks that Apple sells. Intel will have answers for these markets too.
 
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