Question Intel Q4 Results

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BorisTheBlade82

Senior member
May 1, 2020
667
1,022
136
[...] Gelsinger better hope that happens or else I think his seat is going to get very hot, very quickly.

View attachment 75388
While I fully agree with you, this would be such a shame. I am convinced that Pat is the best CEO they were having for decades. That guy breathes Intel. I am sure he would give his life to make them competitive again on a technical level while seeing shareholder value only as some form of necessary evil.
Everything that is wrong with Intel stems from bad decisions made long before he arrived.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
Intel should probably focus on getting into the data center market more than gaming. The margins are higher and they can give their driver team time to smooth out the software side of things while they refine their hardware designs.

This is a short sighted thinking. Client drives real competitiveness. All workstation vendors are dead today. D-E-A-D. You need to look at more than the numbers to see the real picture. One that comes to mind is integrated graphics. Sure, it adds cost and seems like a net loss. But let's say Intel decided to take out the iGPU entirely tomorrow. Next quarter their sales will absolutely tank. So the iGPU offers value beyond dollar value would indicate.

Same with client. The same thing you said, how they have "more time", and how margins are "higher" means less pressure and ultimately a less competitive product. Meanwhile Nvidia continues trucking alone because their datacenter line benefits from the incredible work put into client chips that make the engineers and the managers balance between cost in $, TTM, finicky gamers, power consumption, and support.

Also, they need to sell in much higher volume, because there's a fixed cost they cannot cut. So as volume improves, profit margins will improve rapidly.

DIY markets are actually pretty small compared to above mentioned market.

Don't make the mistake of underestimating DIY. DIY people have much more influence and knowledge compared to the average joe, and thus can be seen as several times as worth. In Q3, their client increase was helped largely due to desktops doing well, while notebook tanked. Because their desktop line is stronger.

I am convinced that Pat is the best CEO they were having for decades. That guy breathes Intel.

And I wholeheartedly agree. Most people conveniently forget that Kraznich was CEO during Haswell, Broadwell, and Skylake timeframe.

I'd like to ask those people. Are those products solely the result of Kraznich, or the previous CEO Otellini?

Chip designs take many years to even see a prototype.

So when a company falters you blame the CEO, the managers, and the engineers, but you conveniently ignore their role when you put better CEO, managers, and improve leadership? What kind of backward-ass logic is that?!

This is why smart investors say the majority is always wrong, always!
 
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Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
982
973
136
It should be noted that Intel now makes highly competitive CPUs for desktop, I would argue that in low to midrange tears Intel desktop CPUs are better with better performance to price ratio than AMD products.
 
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deasd

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
550
864
136
Maybe a correlative reading about the Q4 results


Intel is shipping way more CPUs than it should in order to squeeze its rivals amid falling demand. In a report, Bernstein Research states that Intel has indulged in semi-destructive behavior to sideline AMD in the client segment. Team Blue is maxing out its production capacity to flood the market with excessive inventory at aggressive prices to keep its archrival from growing further.

This risky strategy is sure to hurt Intel as well, most notably its margins, but that’s less of a concern now. The fact that the PC market is at its weakest this quarter further exacerbates the issue. Distributors and retailers are already cutting demand to keep profits in the green. Microsoft posted a drop of thirty-something percent in its Windows OEM profits last quarter.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,161
3,858
136
————— —— —————-
Intel stock is holding up pretty well given the terrible numbers, only down 5% or so! I might double down but will wait till 2nd quarter results come out to buy more!

Your money would be better invested in a 7050X, or even a 13090K...
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
982
973
136
Intel is shipping way more CPUs than it should .... Team Blue is maxing out its production capacity to flood the market with excessive inventory at aggressive prices

What is this "overshipping" nonsense? Retailers stock products according to their stocking strategy, they buy what they need and want. Nobody is going to dump a truckload of CPUs in the middle of their retail store against their will.

Shipping way more CPUs than they should
flood the market with excessive inventory

These are the dumbest statements ever. If they were really published is some seriously meant analysis, the analyst who wrote this should be sacked immediatelly.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
Maybe a correlative reading about the Q4 results


Intel did say that the Client ASP was up 11%... they haven't posted the 10-Q yet so need that to see the exact numbers. But given the big drop in revenue that must mean that they shipped a lot less. Maybe this overshipping was last quarter.
 
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itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,859
3,404
136
What is this "overshipping" nonsense? Retailers stock products according to their stocking strategy, they buy what they need and want. Nobody is going to dump a truckload of CPUs in the middle of their retail store against their will.
It's called a distribution channel , not many companies buy direct from Intel. My company is 400k employee technology company and we don't......

You can totally do this because of the way payment for product actually works.
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
982
973
136
Huh? Every single part of the supply chain have their inventory management. They optimise the level of the inventory.

Aggresive prices??? That is competition. Consumers benefit from that.

BTW as a consumer I do not care about Intels decreased profits at all. I care about the products and prices you can get them for, and for example i5 13500 or 13600K CPUs is the best value consumers can get at this moment.

Intel struggles a bit? Their margin decreases?

GOOD!!!

THAT IS WONDERFUL NEWS FOR CONSUMERS.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
OK, Intel posted the 10-K. Unfortunately there's no Q4 specific numbers but for the whole year, notebook shipments were down 36% and desktop was down 19%. ASPs for both were higher. By comparison, Intel said in Q3 that YTD notebook was down 34% and desktop was down 9%. Maybe they did overship desktop in Q3.

Server btw, shipments were down 16% for the year.
 
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IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,354
5,005
136
What is this "overshipping" nonsense? Retailers stock products according to their stocking strategy, they buy what they need and want. Nobody is going to dump a truckload of CPUs in the middle of their retail store against their will.

Shipping way more CPUs than they should
flood the market with excessive inventory

These are the dumbest statements ever. If they were really published is some seriously meant analysis, the analyst who wrote this should be sacked immediatelly.

There is precedent.

In fact, the FTC (in addition to Korean, Japanese, and EU equivalents) took action against Intel in the past specifically for anticompetitive practices. Including threatening customers to exclude competitors' products.

But hey, don't take my word for it, here's the FTC press release about it in 2010:
The FTC settlement applies to Central Processing Units, Graphics Processing Units and chipsets and prohibits Intel from using threats, bundled prices, or other offers to exclude or hamper competition or otherwise unreasonably inhibit the sale of competitive CPUs or GPUs. The settlement also prohibits Intel from deceiving computer manufacturers about the performance of non-Intel CPUs or GPUs

December 2009:
U.S. Federal Trade Commission files antitrust lawsuit against Intel, alleging that Intel has waged a "systematic campaign" to cut off rivals' access to the marketplace and prevent adoption of superior products produced by competitors. (emphasis added)

"Intel has engaged in a deliberate campaign to hamstring competitive threats to its monopoly," Richard Feinstein, director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition, said in a statement. "It's been running roughshod over the principles of fair play and the laws protecting competition on the merits. The commission's action today seeks to remedy the damage that Intel has done to competition, innovation, and, ultimately, the American consumer."

Granted, in 2010 with the launch of the Core architecture Intel CPUs were the ones to get and AMD couldn't execute so their market share basically became negligible until 2016 with the launch of Zen.
 

Just Benching

Banned
Sep 3, 2022
307
156
76
It should be noted that Intel now makes highly competitive CPUs for desktop, I would argue that in low to midrange tears Intel desktop CPUs are better with better performance to price ratio than AMD products.
They made better products the last 2 years for desktop, but DIY market is hard to turn.
 

Just Benching

Banned
Sep 3, 2022
307
156
76
There is precedent.

In fact, the FTC (in addition to Korean, Japanese, and EU equivalents) took action against Intel in the past specifically for anticompetitive practices. Including threatening customers to exclude competitors' products.

But hey, don't take my word for it, here's the FTC press release about it in 2010:


December 2009:
U.S. Federal Trade Commission files antitrust lawsuit against Intel, alleging that Intel has waged a "systematic campaign" to cut off rivals' access to the marketplace and prevent adoption of superior products produced by competitors. (emphasis added)

"Intel has engaged in a deliberate campaign to hamstring competitive threats to its monopoly," Richard Feinstein, director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition, said in a statement. "It's been running roughshod over the principles of fair play and the laws protecting competition on the merits. The commission's action today seeks to remedy the damage that Intel has done to competition, innovation, and, ultimately, the American consumer."

Granted, in 2010 with the launch of the Core architecture Intel CPUs were the ones to get and AMD couldn't execute so their market share basically became negligible until 2016 with the launch of Zen.
Didnt they win the case though? I remeber something about it last year
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,993
7,763
136
1. Intel mentioned twice they now have higher ASP, but in the same time they mentioned that Xeon pricing was impacted by the competitors products, i am not sure how to make sense of that, maybe they sell at higher prices than Intel's own prior products, but not as high as they could have charged if not for AMD
Quantity of lower priced product crashed. At the same time high priced product, that usually have by far the highest possible margin, had to be reduced in price to stay competitive while production cost increased. The result is more products residing in the mid price range and a higher ASP, but lower margin.
 
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eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,042
4,258
136
Intel needs to focus on perf/watt/mm2. If they make that the focus of the company, they will get back on track. They are clearly doing a repeat of what they did with the Pentium 4, which didn’t work out then, either.

They also need to focus on their graphics IP. Getting it into the datacenter ASAP is important.

As to the folks that think x86 is going away, people have been saying that for years, yet x86 just continues to grow.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
I hope everyone can realize that this is a consequence of vastly bigger events happening worldwide. We are literally living through a historic period of transition that the historians will study and teach to future students. How it ends, I don't , and frankly don't think anyone else knows for certain. A complex scenario in the mathematical sense, with small starting variations leading to widely different results. Look & read wider to get a handle. Truly epochal in scale. There will be no return to normal anytime soon. Companies are going to have to reshape themselves to survive.

Living in an affluent Caribbean country, though western in outlook & lifestyle, but still having connections to other worldviews. Maybe that's why I see things differently. Not saying I'm right, though I obviously do think so.

Money creation & destruction
Reserve currency
Commodities
labour and wage compensation
AI displacing jobs

& many, many more.
 
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TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,990
744
126
Didnt they win the case though? I remeber something about it last year
Yup, the FTC basically just slapped intel for being too successful without having the proof for them doing anything illegal.

It had failed to show “to the requisite legal standard” that the contested rebates posed an anti-competitive risk.
 
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StinkyPinky

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2002
6,822
870
126
I have zero smpathy for Intel. For years they were the top dog and made zero effort to increase performance of their CPU's, the ten years prior to Ryzen was a crap decade for performance. This is what happens when you sit on your ass and let the competition catch up. They get momentum and end up surpassing you.
 

KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,069
1,101
136
Sure buddy, sure. ALD >>> Zen 3, by a mile.
If your only performance metric is performance in games, then yes sure.
If other metrics are also part of the equation then things are far less clear cut.
Intel P cores are fast but huge and guzzle power in a P4 type way.
Certain workloads really do not like the hybrid P & E cores architecture (my new Alder Lake work laptop runs some SQL queries over twice as slow as the previous Haswell laptop, turning off the E cores helps but it's still
slower and with the E cores turned off other tasks are slower).
There is a good reason why despite how conservative data centre customers are, Intel are doing very poorly against AMD there.
That Intel are able to sell 13 CPUs competitively by sacrficing margins and have the advantage of being able to use DDR4 does not mean things are rosy for them.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,354
5,005
136
Sure buddy, sure. ALD >>> Zen 3, by a mile.*

*Such a blanket statement is obviously false. Each architecture has its strong points and cherry picking data at the extremes adds nothing to discussion.

Even if we take the statement at face value, ALD sold and still sells poorly compared to Zen 3.

Zen 4 and RPL are also selling poorly. Zen 3 sales are basically more than all the others combined.

Nonetheless, bad times ahead for corpo profits. Can't fight the macroeconomic environment. Two years of demand was pulled forward artificially. Winter... is coming.
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,990
744
126
I have zero smpathy for Intel.
No sympathy needed.
(In Millions, Except Par Value; Unaudited)
Dec 31, 2022
Dec 25, 2021

Property, plant and equipment, net
80,860
63,245

Retained earnings
70,405​
68,265​

They spend 17bil for FABs
put 2 more bil under the mattress
and they still made 8bil net income for the full 2022...
They are doing fine.

They are not taking the money for the expansions from the mountain of gold but from the running business which is why it looks bad if you are only looking at the main numbers.
 
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