Intel SoFIA & Broxton Killed

Page 4 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,960
1,678
136
Yeah, it's so easy to make great ARM SoCs by buying both companies up that somehow a pure chip vendor like Intel didn't do it when they had the chance, yet they have no qualms losing billions into the black hole of their mobile division. Or to think PA Semi/Intrinsity would have been remotely successful without Apple's war chest.

Quoting Emperor Palpatine: "You will pay the price for your lack of vision."

Just my own speculation here, but it seems to me anyway that both PA and Intrinsity were formed for acquisition at the outset. Intel had already dumped their ARM division sometime before though, so they weren't really a candidate. With Apple's war chest though, that talent, and talent picked up elsewhere has done some really great things with the A series SOC's. I'm sure Qualcomm and Samsung are kicking themselves for not buying them up.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,322
5,352
136
Just my own speculation here, but it seems to me anyway that both PA and Intrinsity were formed for acquisition at the outset. Intel had already dumped their ARM division sometime before though, so they weren't really a candidate. With Apple's war chest though, that talent, and talent picked up elsewhere has done some really great things with the A series SOC's. I'm sure Qualcomm and Samsung are kicking themselves for not buying them up.

PA Semi were originally making PowerPC chips- I think they were flirting with Apple from day 1.
 

videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
6,783
27
91
Yep, it's always the innocent, hard-working worker-bees that get shafted. What's even worse is that due to how large this layoff is, it's hard to keep it out of the public eye. So the poor guy who has a family to feed who tries to go get a job elsewhere in the semiconductor industry will have a harder time because it will be clear that he was laid off from Intel which might make him seem like somebody who couldn't cut it, even if this is not true.

Very sad situation, very disappointed in Intel.

I think not, most other companies see this as an oppurtunity.
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
126
12,000 people is a lot.

Yea, especially in an industry already that is not in a growth phase anymore. But we really dont know how many were engineers do we? Normally, I too think it would be considered a plus to have worked for intel. But their execution has been so bad lately, especially in mobile, not sure it would be considered a plus anymore.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Is Intel down 1 USD today because of this news?

Edit: Intel has confirmed the news

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227523-intel-kills-upcoming-smartphone-and-tablet-hardware

We reached out to Intel, which confirmed the news: SoFIA 3GX, SoFIA LTE, SoFIA LTE2, and Broxton have all been canceled.

Edit: BTW, if you think about it, this was inevitable. Or at least Atom: Intel doesn't *really* need Atom (Goldmont) because they have Core (cf. Apple's Cyclone or whatever the latest one is called). The problem, however, with Core is cost. It isn't optimized for smartphone TPDs, it's die area and feature set is probably too beefy. SoFIA is probably because they don't want to compete with the low-end, low-margin stuff. Not interesting.
 
Last edited:

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,322
5,352
136
Edit: BTW, if you think about it, this was inevitable. Or at least Atom: Intel doesn't *really* need Atom (Goldmont) because they have Core (cf. Apple's Cyclone or whatever the latest one is called). The problem, however, with Core is cost. It isn't optimized for smartphone TPDs, it's die area and feature set is probably too beefy. SoFIA is probably because they don't want to compete with the low-end, low-margin stuff. Not interesting.

I don't think Intel is going to make a surprise comeback with a Core powered phone SoC. They just flushed the entire x86 phone line-up for several years to come, at least. You don't come back from that- they're going to lose the few customers they had left, and the few x86-minded software developers that they had. They burnt over a billion dollars building up x86 marketshare and mindshare, and then they just undid it all.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
I don't think Intel is going to make a surprise comeback with a Core powered phone SoC. They just flushed the entire x86 phone line-up for several years to come, at least. You don't come back from that- they're going to lose the few customers they had left, and the few x86-minded software developers that they had. They burnt over a billion dollars building up x86 marketshare and mindshare, and then they just undid it all.

Always the option of taking an ARM license if Intel ever wants to be a serious mobile player.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,554
10,171
126
I don't think Intel is going to make a surprise comeback with a Core powered phone SoC. They just flushed the entire x86 phone line-up for several years to come, at least. You don't come back from that- they're going to lose the few customers they had left, and the few x86-minded software developers that they had. They burnt over a billion dollars building up x86 marketshare and mindshare, and then they just undid it all.

Hey, but, but, they're at the forefront of diversity hiring! That's got to count for something, right? Who cares about products or quality or time-to-market...
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Hey, but, but, they're at the forefront of diversity hiring! That's got to count for something, right? Who cares about products or quality or time-to-market...

Here's a fun quote from T.J. Rodgers:

I believe that placing arbitrary racial or gender quotas on corporate boards is fundamentally wrong. Therefore, not only does Cypress not meet your requirements for boardroom diversification, but we are unlikely to, because it is very difficult to find qualified directors, let alone directors that also meet investors' racial and gender preferences.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
I don't think Intel is going to make a surprise comeback with a Core powered phone SoC. They just flushed the entire x86 phone line-up for several years to come, at least. You don't come back from that- they're going to lose the few customers they had left, and the few x86-minded software developers that they had. They burnt over a billion dollars building up x86 marketshare and mindshare, and then they just undid it all.
I'm not saying there will be Core soon. However, I've read somewhere that Intel is toying with it. I'm more thinking long-term, around 7nm (earliest).

I mean, they had Core m as their flagship 14nm device, talking about 4 year journey. They could now be starting a similar 4 year journey thing, so who knows. Although who knows who would ever put Core m in a phone. Probably no market for that. Not even Apple since they're doing well.

And the thing with Apple is this: if this were still 2013 and we didn't know about 14nm disaster failure that was coming and everything was still 2 year Tick-Tock sunshine, I would have said that Apple would be forced so sign up at Intel's foundry (which would be opening the way for modem, CPU, etc.) because TSMC and Samsung would be falling enormously behind Intel in manufacturing, giving Apple the best and greatest mobile performance by many miles (which would then in turn force QCOM and all the others so join Intel foundry (which would contract the foundry market hugely because there would be little incentive -- without Apple, QCOM, Samsung, MediaTek -- to produce such costly nodes like 14/16nm with higher cost per transistor than 28nm, leaving Intel as the sole winner and pursuer of Moore's Law) / OR, it would force Samsung etc. to put Intel in their phones -- because in that scenario there would be no delays obviously duh).

But of course quite the reverse happened: it seems Intel's lead is narrowing instead of expanding.
 
Last edited:
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
I'm not saying there will be Core soon. However, I've read somewhere that Intel is toying with it. I'm more thinking long-term, around 7nm (earliest).

That was Kirk Skaugen talking about testing Core m in phones.

I mean, they had Core m as their flagship 14nm device, talking about 4 year journey. They could now be starting a similar 4 year journey thing, so who knows. Although who knows who would ever put Core m in a phone. Probably no market for that. Not even Apple since they're doing well.

Prediction: when the A10 comes out and the world sees the kind of performance that this chip will deliver, I think there will be a lot of denial among the Intel-can-do-no-wrong crowd.

I expect a lot of: "The benchmark is rigged!"

Apple using Core m in an iDevice is a non-starter because Apple's own chips are just way better.

And the thing with Apple is this: if this were still 2013 and we didn't know about 14nm disaster failure that was coming and everything was still 2 year Tick-Tock sunshine, I would have said that Apple would be forced so sign up at Intel's foundry (which is opening the way for modem, CPU, etc.) because TSMC and Samsung would be falling enormously behind Intel in manufacturing. But of course quite the reverse happened: it seems Intel's lead is narrowing instead of expanding.

Yep, Intel did a good job of spinning this story to the public and many, including myself, were duped into thinking that Intel's manufacturing lead would persist/grow. You are right, the gap is narrowing and there's a real chance that TSMC will take the lead within a couple of years.
 
Aug 11, 2008
10,451
642
126
Is Intel down 1 USD today because of this news?

Edit: Intel has confirmed the news

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/227523-intel-kills-upcoming-smartphone-and-tablet-hardware



Edit: BTW, if you think about it, this was inevitable. Or at least Atom: Intel doesn't *really* need Atom (Goldmont) because they have Core (cf. Apple's Cyclone or whatever the latest one is called). The problem, however, with Core is cost. It isn't optimized for smartphone TPDs, it's die area and feature set is probably too beefy. SoFIA is probably because they don't want to compete with the low-end, low-margin stuff. Not interesting.

Yea, when you think about it, just a terrible situation. To dump so much money into it and then just give up? Major disaster, terrible planning and/or execution. They probably should have done this a few years ago. It is called throwing good money after bad.

14nm yields, delays and mediocre performance were probably the final nail in the coffin. If they could have made another leap with Atom like the one to Bay Trail, they might have had a chance. But Cherry Trail was late and not impressive (to put it mildly) when it finally did come out.

Intel could be in for some really tough times. PC market is in decline, AMD and ARM are sniping at servers, and I really question the IoT plans. Even if they could be competitive, I dont think the margins are anywhere close to what they want. Not to mention, their traditional way of driving the market, node shrinks, are becoming increasingly more difficult, expensive, and seem to bring less benefit.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Always the option of taking an ARM license if Intel ever wants to be a serious mobile player.

And do what? Produce A72s on their 14nm without modem?

When is that 14nm modem coming, anyway? In 2017 probably not because they already announced their "7460" (actually called 7480). In 2018? Well, by then it should have been on 10nm for half a year. Maybe that's what they're doing? Cancelling the 14nm modem that is many years too late and get the 10nm one on time for 2017 iPhone -- I presume the 7s?

/dreaming
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
And do what? Produce A72s on their 14nm without modem?

Cortex A + Mali/PowerVR GPU + Intel modem.

When is that 14nm modem coming, anyway? In 2017 probably not because they already announced their "7460" (actually called 7480). In 2018? Well, by then it should have been on 10nm for half a year. Maybe that's what they're doing? Cancelling the 14nm modem that is many years too late and get the 10nm one on time for 2017 iPhone -- I presume the 7s?

/dreaming

10nm modem ramping in early 2017? ROFL! Well, ok, Qualcomm will have a 10nm modem as part of MSM8998 in 2017, but Intel? Not a chance.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,322
5,352
136
That was Kirk Skaugen talking about testing Core m in phones.

Sounded like a last ditch plan to save mobile, when they had already realised that Atom was never going to be competitive. Given Kirk's recent departure, we can guess how that idea went.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
Apple didn't start building their CPU team until after Intel told them no. The ARM chips on the market weren't all that hot at the time either. It is very Apple-like to say 'screw it' and design their own if they can't buy the parts they want. And they have, to great success.

It's not just about CPU, it's about SoC integration. Look at the Atom solutions Intel had 1-2 years later than the first iPhone. They were still connected to chips over FSBs, that contained the memory controller and GPU (that was a mess in more ways than one) and had a huge TDP that greatly exceeded the CPU's. They didn't have an SoC that even met the same level of integration as the SoC in the original iPhone until Medfield which launched in Q2 2012. The first couple generations of Atoms were also not done on a low power process.

Intel could have perhaps managed something with XScale, but I don't think that was ever on the table.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Prediction: when the A10 comes out and the world sees the kind of performance that this chip will deliver, I think there will be a lot of denial among the Intel-can-do-no-wrong crowd.
We'll see. But for graphics, sure.

Which device will A10 actually be? IPhone 7? So for Apple that would be what, a Tock, with the Tick at A11 10nm in 7s?

Yep, Intel did a good job of spinning this story to the public and many, including myself, were duped into thinking that Intel's manufacturing lead would persist/grow. You are right, the gap is narrowing and there's a real chance that TSMC will take the lead within a couple of years.
Yep. I feel really sorry for investors. But that's what's happens in technology, it's always more difficult than anyone thinks.

The paradox is that Intel was actually quite open about 14nm's performance. The thing that made it ugly is that they never met their own yield progression targets, and so their forecast was way too optimistic. The big hit was when they saw that they wouldn't be able to ramp their 10nm yields, that 14nm wasn't an isolated case. But the surprising thing is that probably no one took notice that things would get really ugly for Intel because their beating heart was slowing down.

If you compare what they showed in 2013 IM and 2014 IM, that was the time to leave the ship*.

Where where the days when Russ Fischer was writing all the nice article about Intel and Moore's Law. Have seen little of that. Where where the days when he was forecasting Intel to grow to 100$ per share, or was it $100B revenue?

E.g. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1990411-intel-upside-potential

* Here's what they showed in sequence:

1. November 2013 (Investor Meeting: IM) Q4'13 -- forecast to match yields in Q1'14



2. September 2014 IDF: Q3'14 -- forecast to match in Q1'15



3. IM '14: Q4'14 -- telling = lying that yields are "healthy" (okay, I'll give them that because as we'll see next, they WERE healthy, but then plateau'ed).



4. IM '15: Q4'15 -- forecast to to match yields in Q3'16.



Notice that from Q1'14 to Q4'14 yields were behind, but they where (sure, all the disclaimers about graph being very vague) porogressing quite well, so they had a lot of confidence. It was in fact 2015 that was the dead blow, which it indeed was because '14 was a pretty good year for Intel. If you take their rate of progress from Q2'14 to beginning of Q4'14, it was looking very good (as you can see from 2), but then it went just BAD to the extreme. I think they already knew this at the investor meeting '14. If yields had followed the curve from 2, and 10nm had done the same, they would have been far better off.

I'm really curious about how 10nm yields will be with Cannonlake. Even if they don't show graphs, it will be very clear from all the cost graphs of products (and other statements) they show at the IM (I remember Stacy giving a nice one in November for 2016, and then giving their forecast for Q4'16).

---
I'm quite an optimistic person I figured, so I would've done a bad job investing, but the pessimistic people were right. I'm not seeing upside potential for Intel if they don't get their transistors up to snuff and they prove in 2017 they still have an advantage (--> great 10nm yields + power + performance + density AND delays from Samsung and TSMC of their "10"s and "7"s). So sell at around $35 and go in at around $30 if their manufacturing proves to be good and it's certain they will grow in revenues and stuff. But take with grain of salt..
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
10nm modem ramping in early 2017? ROFL! Well, ok, Qualcomm will have a 10nm modem as part of MSM8998 in 2017, but Intel?
In the good old days, I would've said that with Intel you never know. I mean, with the 1 year delay of 10nm, it would be very sad (but very unlikely) that 10nm launches in a bad health like 14nm did.

Not a chance.
I guess...
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,960
1,678
136
Intel could have perhaps managed something with XScale, but I don't think that was ever on the table.

I don't think anyone has ever said exactly what Apple wanted from Intel. Xscale wasn't sold to Marvell until June 2006. So I suppose it could have been one of those families, to Apples specs they were after? Dunno, maybe someone else here does.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
Cortex A + Mali/PowerVR GPU + Intel modem.

Could also be custom ARM + Intel modem. That is assuming Intel is able to design something better than A72 - and A73 is just around the corner
.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,322
5,352
136
If they want ARM experience, a competitive GPU, volumes to fill their fabs, and a new CEO, there's always NVidia

EDIT: Though trying to move from TSMC to Intel fabs seems like a kiss of death. Both Altera and Infineon have had massive delays.
 
Last edited:

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
I don't think anyone has ever said exactly what Apple wanted from Intel. Xscale wasn't sold to Marvell until June 2006. So I suppose it could have been one of those families, to Apples specs they were after? Dunno, maybe someone else here does.

You're right - it's always kind of been assumed that this was about x86 and Atom but Apple could have been interested in XScale.

PXA270 was really not that different from the Samsung SoC that went in the first iPhone; it had a CPU of similar technology class and higher clock, SDRAM controller (but not mobile DDR which they would have probably needed).

It was also in products like 3 years ahead of iPhone.

They would have needed to incorporate the IGP, but they at least had experience with putting PowerVR GPUs in separate coprocessor chips.

But, I think Intel was planning to sell XScale long before June 2006.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |