For the desktop, I have a feeling you are going to be right about that.
IB was the first processor I have ever bought that failed to OC higher than my processor from the previous node.
And all the talk about Haswell has been directly focused where you'd expect it to be - the power-efficiency in the low power end of the spectrum.
So what are we going to see on the high end of the power spectrum? Probably more of what we've already seen - clocks that come shy of what we can already hit with 32nm SB but at slightly lower power at least.
I have much a much more optimistic outlook on Haswell. Let's face it; it's no Sandy Bridge. But it's a tock, which essentially guarantees that it will be a bigger jump than Ivy Bridge was, and given that this is an Intel product, there's little chance for a Phenom or Bulldozeresque flop.
A substantial part of the blame of Ivy Bridge's clocking shortcomings rest on the shoulders of the FinFETs. It's no secret that the transistors it was built with had low power in mind. We only have to take that hit once. Supposedly the transistors that Haswell uses will be different than the ones in Ivy Bridge, and I'd imagine that they'd only be an improvement seeing how the initial 22nm process has seemed to disappoint.
There's a possibility that we'll see a return to BCLK overclocking again, with the move back to a third clock domain. Memory overclocking should be once again improved, seeing as Intel is pushing manufacturers to pump out DDR3 with higher clock speeds (or at least that's what Anand says). L1 and L2 caches will be stronger, and the fact that the L3 is decoupled once again may allow us to clock either the core or the L3 higher than if they were conjoined, negating the alleged latency hit that it will take.
We're also seeing TSX, which I think is a very important feature of Haswell, and AVX2, which should bring the same goodies we got with AVX in Sandy Bridge, plus a little extra.
It sounds like the on-package VR will be no slouch, so we should expect exceptionally clean power to aid in overclocking and stability.
To me, Haswell just seems to polish the great foundation that Intel has already laid out. Ivy Bridge and Westmere definitely didn't do that for us. What's coming with Haswell aren't radical changes, but they're sensible ones. To me the success of Haswell is a safe bet.