Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,005
5,167
136
Chips Act subsidies only stick if Intel retains majority of ownership and of voting rights.

That provision was inserted to prevent Intel from selling their fabs to foreign interests, or to some PE fund that pockets the money and closes the business the next day. If a consortium with US based heavy hitters like Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm wanted to buy a controlling interest in it I have no doubt the government would approve that in about two seconds.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
385
590
106
Did Intel they really think they'd be the only game in town forever? The answer is yes and they lost that bet.
I think Intel believed that their model of maintaining industry leadership by staying 1 to 2 nodes ahead in process tech from all others would continue.

I think Intel believed that x86 would maintain its apex position in the CPU market forever as well.

I don't see how Intel can survive (as it exists today) when BOTH of these statements are no longer true.

Please note: I am NOT saying that Intel can not continue to make world class products. I am saying that they can no longer make money doing it as they have in the past. You can't base your business model on a steady diet of new process tech when each process tech step costs exponentially more than the one before it, while the market price of your product does not change.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,631
6,109
136
I think Intel believed that their model of maintaining industry leadership by staying 1 to 2 nodes ahead in process tech from all others would continue.

IIRC, they thought if they got stuck, then everyone else would too.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
5,157
8,266
136
IIRC, they thought if they got stuck, then everyone else would too.
Indeed. The introduction of EUV was a good showcase of this. TSMC managing to make it work and work well in a commercially available node appears to have taken both Intel and Samsung by surprise.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,384
2,754
106
If Intel implodes, it would be very damaging to the industry short term, but also beneficial for the industry long term.

Like a big star going supernova. Such a cosmic event is very destructive, but it produces the matter for new stars to be born later, and even forms the ingredients for life.

The implosion of Intel will result dozens of startups, and many ex-Intel engineers going to other companies and fertilising their chip design capabilities.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,384
2,754
106
The board has discussed a range of possibilities in recent months, such as private equity transactions and even a split of Intel’s factory and product-design businesses. But Gelsinger was opposed to breaking up the company, focusing instead on his plan to restore Intel’s technological edge and become a made-to-order manufacturer for outside clients.
The board wanted to break up the company, but Gelsinger refused. Interesting.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
5,029
5,306
136

The board wanted to break up the company, but Gelsinger refused. Interesting.
The board has discussed a range of possibilities in recent months, such as private equity transactions and even a split of Intel’s factory and product-design businesses. But Gelsinger was opposed to breaking up the company, focusing instead on his plan to restore Intel’s technological edge and become a made-to-order manufacturer for outside clients.

Then the board was right.

There is no realistic way for Intel to restore leadership in everything soon, if at all in any. You need a CEO prepared for a long hard slog with a close eye on expenses. He appeared to not have those attributes (I'm being kind).

I don't get this attitude of either be THE best or be worthless. Leads to poor outcomes, most times, as in bet the farm and lose.
 
Jul 27, 2020
22,298
15,554
146
Someone with no illusions or memory of past glory, and willing to do hard stuff needed.
But that's the problem. They don't listen to outsiders and that's why Jim Keller had to leave. Chicken and egg problem. Someone willing to fire on the spot is needed and that someone should have a good enough idea who to replace the fired person with.
 
Reactions: ClockHound

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
5,029
5,306
136
But that's the problem. They don't listen to outsiders and that's why Jim Keller had to leave. Chicken and egg problem. Someone willing to fire on the spot is needed and that someone should have a good enough idea who to replace the fired person with.
It's not just fire. Keller was there at the wrong time. Simple wisdom but still accurate. A message/lesson must not only be sent, but has to be received. Intel is in a far different/worse place than when Keller was there. I think they're finally ready to listen to hard truths.
 
Reactions: lakedude

eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,202
4,635
136
meh, they just kicked him out because AI.

Everyone else except Intel is in a stock bubble due to AI and shareholders aren’t happy. They wanted to 10X their investment like everyone else.
 

deasd

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
588
973
136

The board wanted to break up the company, but Gelsinger refused. Interesting.
Story summary/timeline:

1. Intel fab continued to lose money all along but splitting off the company is hard due to politics
2. Qualcomm was interested in buying Intel at least some parts of it
3. ChipAct by US Gov requires Intel to keep foundry business
4. QC seems lost interest of buying Intel according to latest report
5. Pat stepdown/retirement, CFO is appointed

Now everything look to me like the Intel board have been trying hard to make Intel vulnerable. I don't know their plan but I guess they just want profit even if the cost are breaking up Intel into pieces and expelling Pat who has a very deep relationship with Intel since many years ago. Goosebump.
 
Last edited:
Jul 27, 2020
22,298
15,554
146
meh, they just kicked him out because AI.
That's somewhat easily solved. Create a mobo with four PCIe x8 slots, bundle four of their most powerful GPUs with it and couple that with their OneAPI for AI workload execution. A complete Intel-only solution, unless they can't do that because OneAPI is crap, in which case, it's on them.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
385
590
106
IIRC, they thought if they got stuck, then everyone else would too.
... and everyone else will eventually. Others got stuck a little later is all. Intel has been stuck since the first 14++++++ debacle .
The board has discussed a range of possibilities in recent months, such as private equity transactions and even a split of Intel’s factory and product-design businesses. But Gelsinger was opposed to breaking up the company, focusing instead on his plan to restore Intel’s technological edge and become a made-to-order manufacturer for outside clients.

Then the board was right.

There is no realistic way for Intel to restore leadership in everything soon, if at all in any. You need a CEO prepared for a long hard slog with a close eye on expenses. He appeared to not have those attributes (I'm being kind).

I don't get this attitude of either be THE best or be worthless. Leads to poor outcomes, most times, as in bet the farm and lose.
Agree.

The only way for a Fab to survive financially today is to spread the exponentially increasing cost of new nodes across many customers. Intel's vertical integration strategy is simply no longer viable.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,934
3,367
136
If Intel really is considering Lip-Bu Tan for the next CEO from what I know about him I think he'd be a good choice. Then again I'm partial people who have degrees in physics, especially advanced degrees in that field. Couple that was some good business knowledge and instincts and you have a good combination to lead.
 
Reactions: Joe NYC

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
612
1,001
106
It boils down to this. To save Intel as the fab+design entity it has historically been known from the beginning, Pat's plan and vision was the ONLY option to do that. Regain process leadership or parity, period. Without that, Intel as we know it can not exist. It was a noble effort to attempt it, but looking back now it was apparently not possible and thus boiled down to its simplest form, the wrong decision-- which is why he was ousted.

Calls to spin off the fabs started right around the time Pat was brought on. There were two paths, and being from the old guard he chose the path needed to keep Intel as one company, under design and fabrication, for all. It was not possible given the timeline Pat himself laid out, so here we are.

Retired Engineer is correct in his assessment. Taxpayers plus some sort of consortium are the only way to keep the fabs viable, spun off from the Intel design group. Effective immediately post Pats resignation, Intel is now what AMD became in 2008, a design only company.
 
Reactions: Vattila

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,768
6,015
136
Then the board was right.
No, whomsoever that was opposed to any more private equity dealings was correct and from the information available it isn't clear who that was - the board or Gelsinger.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
385
590
106
It boils down to this. To save Intel as the fab+design entity it has historically been known from the beginning, Pat's plan and vision was the ONLY option to do that. Regain process leadership or parity, period. Without that, Intel as we know it can not exist. It was a noble effort to attempt it, but looking back now it was apparently not possible and thus boiled down to its simplest form, the wrong decision-- which is why he was ousted.

Calls to spin off the fabs started right around the time Pat was brought on. There were two paths, and being from the old guard he chose the path needed to keep Intel as one company, under design and fabrication, for all. It was not possible given the timeline Pat himself laid out, so here we are.

Retired Engineer is correct in his assessment. Taxpayers plus some sort of consortium are the only way to keep the fabs viable, spun off from the Intel design group. Effective immediately post Pats resignation, Intel is now what AMD became in 2008, a design only company.
Being an engineer myself, I totally sympathize with Pat.... but as you point out, his instincts were incorrect. I am sure that as good as 18A is reportedly going to be, the board is looking at the cost of getting there and the expected revenue that approach will yield and crying "Uncle!".

I think it is going to be a crazy decade for Intel.
 
Reactions: Josh128

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,789
4,100
106
He has the technical acumen (at least Dr. Ian believes so) but he is absolutely naive when it comes to financials.

Dr. Ian is also on Intel payroll.

If you caught his podcast on the subject, it was an embarrassment. He spent about 10 minutes talking about possible health problems or health of a relative - as 2 of 3 equally likely possibilities of Gelsinger departure. Brownnosing off the charts.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |