Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
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1,001
106
Dr. Ian is also on Intel payroll.

If you caught his podcast on the subject, it was an embarrassment. He spent about 10 minutes talking about possible health problems or health of a relative - as 2 of 3 equally likely possibilities of Gelsinger departure. Brownnosing off the charts.
Towing the company line, vying for that CEO spot, to be sure. If he has any aspiration to become Intel CEO, saying in public "its because the 18A bet failed", would be naive.

**EDIT : Didnt realize we were talking about Ian Cutress lol. Forgive me, Im retarded lol.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,789
4,100
106
Towing the company line, vying for that CEO spot, to be sure. If he has any aspiration to become Intel CEO, saying in public "its because the 18A bet failed", would be naive.

**EDIT : Didnt realize we were talking about Ian Cutress lol. Forgive me, Im retarded lol.

Well, the funny part is that the topic of Ian becoming the CEO of Intel came up.
 
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StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
6,274
9,588
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If a consortium with US based heavy hitters like Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm wanted to buy a controlling interest in it I have no doubt the government would approve that in about two seconds.
Intel and the government came to agree on terms & conditions. Likewise, a consortium of buyers and the government would have to come to agree on terms & conditions. Maybe this is going to take them about 2000 milliseconds, or maybe a few more... The more parties involved, the more complex it's going to be. Alternatively, the buyer(s) could drop the subsidies, but I have no idea whether one way or the other would make the buy more attractive.
That's a political decision which can be changed at will.
Adapted to new owners perhaps, but not changed fundamentally, except retracted summarily (the subsidies, that is).
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Indeed. The introduction of EUV was a good showcase of this. TSMC managing to make it work and work well in a commercially available node appears to have taken both Intel and Samsung by surprise.

I don't think TSMC making it work at commercial quantities took Intel & Samsung by surprise. Their failure to do the same is what took them by surprise, because obviously they expected to do so regardless of whether TSMC succeeded.

At what point did Intel start mass manufacturing Intel 4 & 3, which is their first use of EUV? Only in the last year, right? That's four years behind TSMC, who did it with N7+ in fall 2019.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,631
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At what point did Intel start mass manufacturing Intel 4 & 3, which is their first use of EUV? Only in the last year, right? That's four years behind TSMC, who did it with N7+ in fall 2019.

Yes. So it was 4+ years from Ice Lake to Meteor Lake.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,934
3,367
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In the short term if Intel and "clean their room" and get rid of everything not necessary they can survive okay. Raptor in pre-built systems is still competitive and reliable, same with ARL, even if they aren't really top dog, it's close enough. AMD seems to have better mobile parts but can't get them into good systems.

The big problem of course as many have noted is that Intel is bleeding money. They should start at the top and get rid of the outrageous compensation. Time to tighten the belt.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
5,157
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I don't think TSMC making it work at commercial quantities took Intel & Samsung by surprise. Their failure to do the same is what took them by surprise, because obviously they expected to do so regardless of whether TSMC succeeded.
I guess the people being surprised could be different. The Intel team working on EUV likely was surprised to hear how far ahead TSMC actually is. The Intel management then likely was surprised to learn how far behind the Intel team actually is.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
5,157
8,266
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It's not just fire. Keller was there at the wrong time. Simple wisdom but still accurate. A message/lesson must not only be sent, but has to be received. Intel is in a far different/worse place than when Keller was there. I think they're finally ready to listen to hard truths.
But will they?

And Keller was there both too early and too late.

Considering the board is mostly the same, as long as they stay I'm afraid Intel will go through some more Swan to Pat and back CEO change cycles instead pushing for a clear goal (other than AIAIAI anyway). So at this point Lip-Bu Tan coming back to the board with everybody else leaving would be better for Intel's future than the next choice for the position of CEO.
 

oak8292

Member
Sep 14, 2016
124
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It seems like it really does come down to AI. intel’s recent growth was servers for cloud. CCG was stagnant, other than a pandemic blip. With AI taking all the capital in cloud it means servers are now also stagnant. Intel needed to get Nvidia on board as the first foundry customer to pay for 18A.

My guess is that A16 at TSMC is essentially a Nvidia specific node. It will also work for Apple Mac processors which will be routed on N2 for A processors with identical routing of most functions on A16 for the M processors. However Apple M is too small in volume for that much development. Nvidia might be in the $5-10 billion per year range at peak on A16.
 

KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,221
1,570
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Do you know the meaning to D0=0.4?
It's a lot worse than 0.08? Which is when TSMC usually declare something high volume ready?

Wasn't there a previous defect rate milestone for 18A of 0.4 and some where projecting that is good at that earlier time as defect rates will always come down following some definite rules.

Might have been Intel's node after 18A but still: each 0.01 improvement (even just towards 0.1 after that it gets far harder still) probably is the result of 100s of engineers pouring 1,000s of hours in to get that improvement. Past performance being no predictor of future improvement IMO.
 
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dttprofessor

Member
Jun 16, 2022
139
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It's a lot worse than 0.08? Which is when TSMC usually declare something high volume ready?

Wasn't there a previous defect rate milestone for 18A of 0.4 and some where projecting that is good at that earlier time as defect rates will always come down following some definite rules.

Might have been Intel's node after 18A but still: each 0.01 improvement (even just towards 0.1 after that it gets far harder still) probably is the result of 100s of engineers pouring 1,000s of hours in to get that improvement. Past performance being no predictor of future improvement IMO.
Are you sure everything is definitely about TSMC ?
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,005
5,167
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We may finally have the answer why Pat was sacked:


If that's true Intel is in real trouble. That's even worse than Samsung's yields.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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If that's true Intel is in real trouble. That's even worse than Samsung's yields.
Makes sense that the board may want to ditch the fabs ASAP. So much investment for such horrible progress. Pat's theatrics were something out of a circus from the start. Multiple nodes in 5 years?? Even just Intel 7 blew up in their faces with Raptor Lake's degradation issues.

Akin to a bunch of clowns who didn't know their own farts could give them a blackout. Well, with Raptor Lake they farted through their noses and got a mighty good blackout, yes they did!

And trying to do this multiple nodes circus act when people have multiple computing device options to choose from and with some of them performing like a dream so they didn't even have enough money coming in to try something so risky? You can't make up lost time unless you have discovered some magic trick.
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
396
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If that's true Intel is in real trouble. That's even worse than Samsung's yields.
Makes me think how much % SMIC has with their 7nm and 6nm... if it has better than Samsung AND Intel... OHH BOY! That is gonna suck for everyone.
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,005
5,167
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Makes me think how much % SMIC has with their 7nm and 6nm... if it has better than Samsung AND Intel... OHH BOY! That is gonna suck for everyone.

TSMC was able to get great yields with their original N7 which was DUV only, and SMIC has access to improved DUV machines over what TSMC had at the time so it is quite possible they could get 90%+ - if they are as good as TSMC's engineers (or they stole enough information from TSMC about how they did it)
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,368
12,175
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If that's true Intel is in real trouble. That's even worse than Samsung's yields.
To mirror what is being said in another thread, that story from WCCFTech may not be true. It seems to report the same claim about Broadcom that was floated months ago. Not sure about the D0 figures but the rest of it . . .
 

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
Super Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
30,378
26,925
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Protip for those of you sharing or reading articles behind paywalls or that push sign ups like this one -


The board wanted to break up the company, but Gelsinger refused. Interesting.

Put archive.is/ in front of the link. If no one has archived it yet, you should do it at that point. If it already has been, anyone that wants to read it can do the same thing - https://archive.is/Uztca

I don't understand why anyone is white knighting Pat. He spent money like a drunken sailor on shore leave. Appeared to lack the capacity to understand the human malware generated income was temporary. And ran things with a decades old mentality unsuited for the present dynamics of the industry. His reign has been IBM syndrome through and through. Now we are deflecting to the board being the real problem. You know, the one Tan left because Pat is poking the poodle and he was, to say the least, not okay with it. /armcharing comments.
 
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